First, Electoral-Vote.com… This is the first time he has lead in this count since the race began, and it speaks to how he has really sewn up the red states, and managed to swing states like Nevada and New Mexico back into his column. FiveThirtyEight shows McCain with an even bigger lead… As noted here [...]
With less than two months to go, I’m going to start supplementing the daily national polling with a semi-daily electoral outlook from a few different sources. The best sources I see are Real Clear Politics, Electoral-Vote.com, Pollster and Five Thirty Eight. So then, here we go… Real Clear Politics: Obama 273, McCain 265 Electoral-Vote.com: Obama [...]
Sort of… Here’s the count if there are no toss up states… Here’s the count if toss up states are still considered toss up states… Regardless, the race is tightening and it’s increasingly clear that late July and the whole of August has not been a good month for Obama in terms of momentum. John [...]
Doug Mataconis runs the numbers and comes up with an extremely plausible map… Colorado is incredibly tight, as is Ohio, Florida and Virginia. If McCain is able to keep all of those in the Republican column, then it’s 1824 all over again. Thoughts?
I just did a few posts about the recent Quinnipiac polls for Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, and that got me thinking about the overall electoral college outlook. After all, whoever gets to 270 first is what really matters. So here’s what Pollster is showing…an easy Obama win… Same story from Electoral-College.com… So the question now [...]
In yet another sign that the Obama camp is really looking to remix the electoral map, “must win” status is being shifted from the traditional bellwethers to some that may surprise you. From AP: In a private pitch late last week to donors and former supporters of Hillary Rodham Clinton, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe [...]
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