In this podcast we offer a preview of the third and final presidential debate between Obama and McCain as well as an overview of the state of the campaign. We also discuss our most recent election projection and the polling trends during the last week.
Additionally, we criticize both campaigns on their respective weaknesses and [...]

I’ll let the numbers speak for themselves…
Colorado
Obama: 51
McCain: 45
Florida
Obama: 52
McCain: 45
Missouri
Obama: 50
McCain: 47
Ohio
McCain: 48
Obama: 47
Virginia
Obama: 50
McCain: 48

Earlier I shared some electoral projections that hinted at an Obama blowout, and now I have two sets of swing state polls that provide even more good news for his camp.
The key here is that Obama has crossed the 50% threshold in most of these polls with just a little more than a month [...]

It is official. Florida election officials are warming up for another election fiasco.
Palm Beach County held an election on August 26. One of the races for judge ended up extremely close, only 60 votes separated two candidates. As election officials began preparations for a recount, they found that 3,500 ballots were missing.
Rumors abounded that the [...]

All’s well that ends well…
The actions, taken during a meeting at the host city’s Colorado Convention Center, put a final touch to a long-running and bruising dispute over the decisions by officials in both states to hold their presidential primaries in January, in violation of Democratic National Committee (DNC) scheduling rules. The DNC initially barred [...]

Obama – 46%
McCain – 44%
This is a statistically insignificant lead, so they’re basically tied. Last month, Obama lead by 4, 47% to 43%.
The shift appears to be happening among the independent crowd. Now they’re backing McCain by 5 points. Last month, Obama led among independents by 10. That’s quite a shift, and makes me wonder [...]

Obama – 46%
McCain – 45%
Last month, McCain led Obama by 7 and in May the margin was 8.
What changed?

Among independent voters, Obama has a 23 point lead.
Obama leads 50% to 43% among women.
McCain leads 47% to 41% among men.
Obama is viewed favorably by 51%.
McCain is viewed favorably by 60%.
49% of voters say economic issues are [...]

McCain – 48%
Obama – 41%
This is down from a 10 point lead a month ago.
The details…

McCain leads by seventeen points among men but trails by two among women.
Obama has a huge lead among voters under 30 while McCain leads among those 30 and older.
McCain is supported by 85% of Republicans while Obama earns the [...]

After reading this short interview in the NY Times Magazine, I liking this guy’s approach…
Is it fair to describe you as socially progressive?
I think it is fair to describe me as a common-sense Republican.
Which implies that some Republicans lack common sense.
That’s possible.
You have supported stem-cell research, unlike most Republicans.
I do support that. I think it [...]

On the heels of today’s Quinnipiac poll that showed Obama up by 4, American Research Group finds a similar spread in the Sunshine State.
Obama – 49%
McCain – 44%
Here’s how the demos break down…
Party ID of likely voters
Democrats – 43%
Republicans – 38%
Independent – 19%
Candidate preference by party ID
Democrats – Obama +61
Republicans – McCain +57
Independent – Obama [...]

Obama – 47%
McCain – 43%
This is a tight one, but the fact that Obama is leading before the conventions is telling. Florida was supposed to be a pain point for him after the Dem primary, but women and independent voters are falling in line.
Some demo info…
Florida women likely voters back Obama 50 – 40 percent, [...]

In yet another sign that the Obama camp is really looking to remix the electoral map, “must win” status is being shifted from the traditional bellwethers to some that may surprise you.
From AP:
In a private pitch late last week to donors and former supporters of Hillary Rodham Clinton, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe outlined several [...]

The totals are obviously dependent on different counts, but Obama now has about 2,052 and Clinton has about 1,877.
Here’s more…
In a huge blow to Hillary’s hopes, such as they are, the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee has now voted in favor of a compromise measure for Michigan, giving 69 pledged delegates to Hillary Clinton and [...]

If you’re not watching it live, Robert Wexler just spoke on behalf of the Obama campaign and he said they’d accept the Ausman petition
More from TPM:
“Senator Obama should be commended for his willingness to offer this extraordinary concession,” Wexler said, adding that he’s offering this concession “in order to promote reconciliation with Florida voters.”
Though Hillary’s [...]

That’s apparently what he said a couple days ago…

I think this will be the likely outcome today. And frankly, I don’t see any other way it can happen without tearing the party apart.

On C-Span.org…
On MSNBC!

(by the way, I wish C-SPAN allowed embedding and then replaced whatever live feed they had with the recording of that feed. That would be great for us political bloggers…hint hint…)
I’m watching Robert Wexler make the case for Obama right now. He’s doing a very good job…because he’s talking about the actual, you [...]

I wonder what it’ll be after Saturday’s Michigan/Florida decision?

The details…
Since just after the North Carolina and Indiana primaries, Obama has led Clinton nearly every day, including a stretch of double-digit leads in the May 18-22 Gallup Poll Daily tracking releases. Since then, his advantage had been slightly less, at five to eight percentage points, but [...]

The numbers are starting to get a lot closer when you look at the different sources…
NY Times:
Obama – Pledged (1,656), Super (319.5), Total (1,975.5)
Clinton – Pledged (1,502), Super (274), Total (1,776)
50.5 for Obama to win, 250 for Clinton to win
CNN:
Obama – Pledged (1661), Super (317), Total (1,978)
Clinton – Pledged (1499), Super (281), Total (1,780)
48 for [...]

The last nail in Hillary’s coffin?
From TPM:
In what could potentially be a blow to Hillary’s electoral hopes, such as they are right now, the Democratic National Committee’s lawyers have declared that the Rules and Bylaws committee lacks the legal authority to seat the full Florida and Michigan delegations.
The DNC’s lawyers sent a memo late yesterday [...]

Even though he’s a pretty staunch Clinton supporter, Paterson gave an interview today and put it pretty bluntly…

It doesn’t get much plainer than that.
(h/t: TPM)