McCain - 48%
Obama - 41%
This is down from a 10 point lead a month ago.
The details…

McCain leads by seventeen points among men but trails by two among women.
Obama has a huge lead among voters under 30 while McCain leads among those 30 and older.
McCain is supported by 85% of Republicans while Obama earns the [...]

After reading this short interview in the NY Times Magazine, I liking this guy’s approach…
Is it fair to describe you as socially progressive?
I think it is fair to describe me as a common-sense Republican.
Which implies that some Republicans lack common sense.
That’s possible.
You have supported stem-cell research, unlike most Republicans.
I do support that. I think it [...]

On the heels of today’s Quinnipiac poll that showed Obama up by 4, American Research Group finds a similar spread in the Sunshine State.
Obama - 49%
McCain - 44%
Here’s how the demos break down…
Party ID of likely voters
Democrats - 43%
Republicans - 38%
Independent - 19%
Candidate preference by party ID
Democrats - Obama +61
Republicans - McCain +57
Independent - Obama [...]

Obama - 47%
McCain - 43%
This is a tight one, but the fact that Obama is leading before the conventions is telling. Florida was supposed to be a pain point for him after the Dem primary, but women and independent voters are falling in line.
Some demo info…
Florida women likely voters back Obama 50 - 40 percent, [...]

In yet another sign that the Obama camp is really looking to remix the electoral map, “must win” status is being shifted from the traditional bellwethers to some that may surprise you.
From AP:
In a private pitch late last week to donors and former supporters of Hillary Rodham Clinton, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe outlined several [...]

The totals are obviously dependent on different counts, but Obama now has about 2,052 and Clinton has about 1,877.
Here’s more…
In a huge blow to Hillary’s hopes, such as they are, the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee has now voted in favor of a compromise measure for Michigan, giving 69 pledged delegates to Hillary Clinton and [...]

If you’re not watching it live, Robert Wexler just spoke on behalf of the Obama campaign and he said they’d accept the Ausman petition
More from TPM:
“Senator Obama should be commended for his willingness to offer this extraordinary concession,” Wexler said, adding that he’s offering this concession “in order to promote reconciliation with Florida voters.”
Though Hillary’s [...]

That’s apparently what he said a couple days ago…

I think this will be the likely outcome today. And frankly, I don’t see any other way it can happen without tearing the party apart.

On C-Span.org…
On MSNBC!

(by the way, I wish C-SPAN allowed embedding and then replaced whatever live feed they had with the recording of that feed. That would be great for us political bloggers…hint hint…)
I’m watching Robert Wexler make the case for Obama right now. He’s doing a very good job…because he’s talking about the actual, you [...]

I wonder what it’ll be after Saturday’s Michigan/Florida decision?

The details…
Since just after the North Carolina and Indiana primaries, Obama has led Clinton nearly every day, including a stretch of double-digit leads in the May 18-22 Gallup Poll Daily tracking releases. Since then, his advantage had been slightly less, at five to eight percentage points, but [...]

The numbers are starting to get a lot closer when you look at the different sources…
NY Times:
Obama - Pledged (1,656), Super (319.5), Total (1,975.5)
Clinton - Pledged (1,502), Super (274), Total (1,776)
50.5 for Obama to win, 250 for Clinton to win
CNN:
Obama - Pledged (1661), Super (317), Total (1,978)
Clinton - Pledged (1499), Super (281), Total (1,780)
48 for [...]

The last nail in Hillary’s coffin?
From TPM:
In what could potentially be a blow to Hillary’s electoral hopes, such as they are right now, the Democratic National Committee’s lawyers have declared that the Rules and Bylaws committee lacks the legal authority to seat the full Florida and Michigan delegations.
The DNC’s lawyers sent a memo late yesterday [...]

Even though he’s a pretty staunch Clinton supporter, Paterson gave an interview today and put it pretty bluntly…

It doesn’t get much plainer than that.
(h/t: TPM)

From the depths of Tallahassee, Florida comes a man so qualified it’s shocking that he’s not running his own vice president campaign already! Governor Charlie Crist once served as Vice President of the student body at Florida State University where he studied Law.
Under Jeb Bush, he became Deputy Secretary of the Department of Business and [...]

A Quinnipiac University poll found some disturbing news for Barack Obama. Currently, Obama trails John McCain in Florida and Ohio polls by 4-5 percentage points. By itself, the numbers aren’t too bad. But here’s the kicker. The same poll showed Hillary Clinton leading John McCain in those two swing states by 7 percentage points.
In fact, [...]

She didn’t, did she?
From Politico:
“In Florida, you learned the hard way what happens when your votes aren’t counted and the candidate with fewer votes is declared the winner,” she said. “The lesson of 2000 here in Florida is crystal clear: if any votes aren’t count, the will of the people isn’t realized and our democracy [...]

The 2,025 number has been THE finish line since the beginning of the campaign. Not until the Clinton camp started to see their imminent demise did they start to make the argument that the “real” number is actually 2,209…which would include delegates from Florida and Michigan.
From Politico:
The Obama campaign agrees with the Democratic National Committee, [...]

I have serious doubts she would use the following “nuclear option” because it would ensure that Obama’s supporters would stay home. There are just too many landmines.
Still…there do seem to be whispers of a plan…
Hillary Clinton’s campaign has a secret weapon to build its delegate count, but her top strategists say privately that any attempt [...]

This from Clinton’s ironically titled “The Fact Hub” blog:
After last night’s decisive victory in Pennsylvania, more people have voted for Hillary than any other candidate, including Sen. Obama.
Estimates vary slightly, but according to Real Clear Politics, Hillary has received 15,095,663 votes to Sen. Obama’s 14,973,720, a margin of more than 120,000 votes. ABC News reported [...]

I guess they thought they could buy some influence and expect the DNC to break their own rules?
From Hotline:
A DNC spokeswoman is confirming that the party is returning money, totaling $45K, to three donors. Details will indeed be reported in that April 20 filing. All three are FL donors upset with the ongoing debate about [...]