Good signs on the state level (.pdf), even if Obama’s numbers are slipping a bit nationally in the past couple days. Colorado: Obama +9 Obama: 50% McCain: 41% Florida: Obama + 2 Obama: 45% McCain: 43% Nevada: Obama +12 Obama: 52% McCain: 40% New Hampshire: Obama +18 Obama: 55% McCain: 37% North Carolina: Obama +2 [...]

Some good news for McCain today, but considering he has pulled out of Colorado in favor of Pennsylvania, this poll also surfaces some cold, hard truths about his chances to win. Ohio: McCain +3 McCain 48% Obama 45% Florida: McCain +2 McCain 48% Obama 46% Pennsylvania: Obama +7 Obama 50% McCain 43% While Obama has [...]

12 days till it’s over, and the numbers keep looking more and more favorable for Obama. Florida: Obama +5 Obama 49% McCain 44% Ohio: Obama + 14 Obama 52% McCain 38% Pennsylvania: Obama +13 Obama 53% McCain 40% The biggest surprise here is Ohio, which I think is much closer than this 14% spread. In [...]

TIME has the numbers. In Nevada and North Carolina it favors Obama… Cumulative early-vote totals in the Las Vegas area show ballots were cast by 31,875 Democrats and 13,371 Republicans through midday Monday. Republicans had the advantage in absentee balloting, 6,616 to 6,161 through noon Monday. In the Reno area, a similar pattern occurred twice [...]

Not much change from last week to this week, so the story is essentially that Obama’s numbers are holding steady in these key battleground states with 21 days left. Florida Obama 51, McCain 46 Week ago: Obama 52, McCain 45) Missouri Obama 50, McCain 47 Last week: Obama 50, McCain 47 North Carolina Obama 48, [...]

In this podcast we offer a preview of the third and final presidential debate between Obama and McCain as well as an overview of the state of the campaign. We also discuss our most recent election projection and the polling trends during the last week. Additionally, we criticize both campaigns on their respective weaknesses and [...]

I’ll let the numbers speak for themselves… Colorado Obama: 51 McCain: 45 Florida Obama: 52 McCain: 45 Missouri Obama: 50 McCain: 47 Ohio McCain: 48 Obama: 47 Virginia Obama: 50 McCain: 48

Earlier I shared some electoral projections that hinted at an Obama blowout, and now I have two sets of swing state polls that provide even more good news for his camp. The key here is that Obama has crossed the 50% threshold in most of these polls with just a little more than a month [...]

It is official. Florida election officials are warming up for another election fiasco. Palm Beach County held an election on August 26. One of the races for judge ended up extremely close, only 60 votes separated two candidates. As election officials began preparations for a recount, they found that 3,500 ballots were missing. Rumors abounded [...]

All’s well that ends well… The actions, taken during a meeting at the host city’s Colorado Convention Center, put a final touch to a long-running and bruising dispute over the decisions by officials in both states to hold their presidential primaries in January, in violation of Democratic National Committee (DNC) scheduling rules. The DNC initially [...]

Obama – 46% McCain – 44% This is a statistically insignificant lead, so they’re basically tied. Last month, Obama lead by 4, 47% to 43%. The shift appears to be happening among the independent crowd. Now they’re backing McCain by 5 points. Last month, Obama led among independents by 10. That’s quite a shift, and [...]

Obama – 46% McCain – 45% Last month, McCain led Obama by 7 and in May the margin was 8. What changed? Among independent voters, Obama has a 23 point lead. Obama leads 50% to 43% among women. McCain leads 47% to 41% among men. Obama is viewed favorably by 51%. McCain is viewed favorably [...]

McCain – 48% Obama – 41% This is down from a 10 point lead a month ago. The details… McCain leads by seventeen points among men but trails by two among women. Obama has a huge lead among voters under 30 while McCain leads among those 30 and older. McCain is supported by 85% of [...]

After reading this short interview in the NY Times Magazine, I liking this guy’s approach… Is it fair to describe you as socially progressive? I think it is fair to describe me as a common-sense Republican. Which implies that some Republicans lack common sense. That’s possible. You have supported stem-cell research, unlike most Republicans. I [...]

On the heels of today’s Quinnipiac poll that showed Obama up by 4, American Research Group finds a similar spread in the Sunshine State. Obama – 49% McCain – 44% Here’s how the demos break down… Party ID of likely voters Democrats – 43% Republicans – 38% Independent – 19% Candidate preference by party ID [...]

Obama – 47% McCain – 43% This is a tight one, but the fact that Obama is leading before the conventions is telling. Florida was supposed to be a pain point for him after the Dem primary, but women and independent voters are falling in line. Some demo info… Florida women likely voters back Obama [...]

In yet another sign that the Obama camp is really looking to remix the electoral map, “must win” status is being shifted from the traditional bellwethers to some that may surprise you. From AP: In a private pitch late last week to donors and former supporters of Hillary Rodham Clinton, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe [...]

The totals are obviously dependent on different counts, but Obama now has about 2,052 and Clinton has about 1,877. Here’s more… In a huge blow to Hillary’s hopes, such as they are, the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee has now voted in favor of a compromise measure for Michigan, giving 69 pledged delegates to Hillary [...]

If you’re not watching it live, Robert Wexler just spoke on behalf of the Obama campaign and he said they’d accept the Ausman petition More from TPM: “Senator Obama should be commended for his willingness to offer this extraordinary concession,” Wexler said, adding that he’s offering this concession “in order to promote reconciliation with Florida [...]

That’s apparently what he said a couple days ago… I think this will be the likely outcome today. And frankly, I don’t see any other way it can happen without tearing the party apart.