Some people say “a vice president is just a vice president,” that a visit from a #2 isn’t all that big a deal. However, it seems that Vice President Biden’s current trip has important meanings for all involved. While it may not be as big a deal as a visit from Obama himself, sending the #2 is a great way for Obama to highlight areas of the world that mean the most to the current administration.

One might ask, “Why not send Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on these missions? Isn’t that her job?” Yet, Obama has said that he prefers a “divide and conquer” approach to foreign policy, which is reinforced by his sending of Biden, his closest foreign policy advisor. As promised on the campaign trail, Joe Biden is proving that he’s involved in all the major operations within the White House and he’s getting the ability to wear that Secretary of State hat a little bit, while sitting tall in the second-highest position in the land.

Today, the vice president is traveling to Ukraine to reassure Russia’s embattled neighbors that the new administration will not abandon them as they improve ties with the Kremlin… Continue Reading…

The Democrat’s dream of a supermajority is dead, at least until 2010.

Also, Saxby Chambliss has the world’s biggest left hand.

From CNN:

Chambliss, a freshman Republican senator, was projected to win more than 50 percent of the vote in Tuesday’s rematch against Democrat Jim Martin.

The election is playing off the results of November 4, when Chambliss failed to win a majority of the vote in November’s three-person race.

This doesn’t surprise me much. Obama had other things to focus on and African American turnout was way down. Plus, had Obama campaigned here and Chambliss won, well, that wouldn’t have looked too good for Obama.

And all the folks you’d expect to see run against Obama in 2012 came out to stump for Chambliss…

Sarah Palin, the Alaska governor and former Republican vice presidential nominee, teamed up with Chambliss at four campaign events across Georgia on Monday.

“You Georgians are going to have the opportunity to determine the direction this country is going to take,” Palin said during a campaign rally in Perry, in south Georgia. [...]

Other former presidential hopefuls — including former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani — also have hit the trail for Chambliss in the past month.

Now there’s only Minnesota to decide, and it looks like Franken will be defeated barring some miracle.

Keep in mind that the following is coming from a critic of the Georgian administration, but he was an insider and he also went before his own government to give his assessment of the situation.

From BBC:

Erosi Kitsmarishvili, a former envoy to Russia, was testifying at a parliamentary commission hearing into the war the breakaway Georgian region.

One lawmaker threw his pen at Mr Kitsmarishvili and then had to be restrained as he charged towards him. [...]

“Russia was ready for this war, but the Georgian leadership started the military action first,” Mr Kitsmarishvili told the commission on Tuesday.

He said he had this information “from high-ranking Georgian officials”. However, he said he believed Georgia had been provoked into war by Russia.

What it seems like we have here is somebody who thinks Georgia was coaxed into conflict with Russia, but they still started it. This is what many of us said when the conflict happened during the campaign season, including Obama, but we were dismissed by the hawks as being soft of Russian aggression.

What a difference a couple months make…

Now, no doubt one man’s account doesn’t make any of this true, but since there has been so much silence out of the region since this whole thing started, one can’t help but think that there’s some truth to this. After all, if Georgia was genuinely attacked without provocation, the entire world would rally to its side. But that hasn’t happened.

So why is this important in the long run? Why do I even bother talking about it?

Because the US is currently trying to get Georgia and Ukraine into NATO before the next administration gets into office…

The United States has started an unexpected diplomatic initiative in Europe, urging NATO allies to offer Georgia and Ukraine membership in the alliance without going through a lengthy process and fulfilling a long list of requirements, NATO diplomats said.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has had long telephone conversations with French, German and other senior European envoys, asking them to agree to bypass the formal application process, the diplomats said.

The proposal faces significant hurdles. At a NATO meeting in Bucharest, Romania, in April, the United States failed to persuade NATO to offer the usual application process, known as a membership action plan, to Ukraine and Georgia. Instead, NATO leaders agreed that one day each country would join, without committing to a timetable.

Key question: why is the current administration doing this? Because late moves like this only seem they’re designed to create diplomatic problems for the next administration.

More as it develops…

No surprises here, although Georgia was seen as a possible landslide indicator for Obama.

Georgia has 15 electoral votes.

Alabama has 9.

This from FiveThirtyEight…

If there is one shocker on election night in the presidential race, cast your eyes to Georgia. 1,994,990 people voted early in Georgia. 3,301,875 total voted in Georgia’s presidential race in 2004.

We may be headed for something completely unexpected tonight.

Here’s Chuck Todd’s take…

Has this state really slipped into the toss-up category? Possibly. A few years ago, I asked a smart Democratic demographer which states could become competitive if the party could maximize voter registration and turnout among African-Americans. This demographer pointed to three states: Georgia, Louisiana (pre-Katrina) and Mississippi. So we’ll see.

Still…could this be the surprise of the night?

Because while wins in Georgia and Missouri would be nice, Obama doesn’t need them. But he does need wins in Colorado, Virginia and Nevada if he doesn’t want to worry about Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania. Although I’d bet my car that he wins Pennsylvania.

The numbers…

Georgia: McCain +5
McCain: 52%
Obama: 47%

Missouri: McCain +2
McCain: 50%
Obama: 48%

Virginia: Obama +9
Obama: 53%
McCain: 44%

Colorado: Obama +8
Obama: 53%
McCain: 45%

Florida: Obama +4
Obama: 51%
McCain: 47%

As I’ve stated before, I don’t think Obama will take Florida or Ohio, but I actually think he has a shot at Georgia given its extremely high African American population and their massive early voting turnout.

And Missouri? Well, who knows, but if Obama is elected history shows us that Missouri will probably turn blue. If not, it’ll probably be in McCain’s column.

Here’s a little more from CNN about their electoral map…

The new numbers in Colorado, along with similar findings from other new polls in the state, are factors in CNN’s move of Colorado from a toss up state to lean Obama in our new Electoral College Map. CNN is also changing Indiana from lean McCain to toss up. A new CNN Poll of Polls in Indiana suggests McCain holds a two point lead over Obama in a state that hasn’t voted for a Democrat in a presidential election since 1964. The poll of polls is an average of the latest state surveys.

With the switch of Colorado’s nine electoral votes and Indiana’s 11, CNN now estimates that if the election were held today Obama would win states with 286 electoral votes and McCain states with 163, with 89 electoral votes still up for grabs. Two-hundred and seventy electoral votes are needed to clinch the presidency. Obama’s estimate of 286 electoral votes is a jump from 274 in our most recent electoral college map.

Here’s their map…

More battleground polls soon…

However, he could definitely siphon off crucial votes in New Hampshire and Georgia.



So, will Barr help bring about an Obama landslide?

It’s pretty astonishing that Georgia is even in leaners column at this point. This state hasn’t gone blue since 1976.

And with early voting seemingly favoring Dems, McCain has a fight on his hands that he most likely never anticipated.

In fact, a recent poll showed Obama with a 1 point advantage.

Long story short, this is one of those states that McCain can’t lose.

Because if he does, it’s landslide time.

“Senator John McCain will not win Georgia.”
- Libertarian presidential candidate Bob Barr

That’s certainly a bold prediction, but let’s remember that Barr represented Georgia’s 7th district from 1995 to 2003, so he may pull support from fiscal conservatives in the state.

What’s more, at least one recent poll has shown Obama up by one.

What do you think? Plausible?

Alright folks, because of massive turnout by African Americans in early voting, I think Georgia may actually be in the mix this year.

Let’s remember that Obama “routed” (per Alan’s hilarious scale) Hillary in the primary season by 35 points, so he’s certainly a popular figure in the state.

Here’s more…

“Obama is doing better among white voters than Kerry did in 2004 (according to exit polls of that race), carrying some 28 percent of the white vote. He’s carrying around 75 percent both of the Hispanic and ‘other’ vote, which makes up between four and five percent of Georgia’s electorate. He is winning among independents, outside of the margin of error of the poll.

“While this is a tight race, the problem for McCain is that all but 3 percent of whites have made their decision and approximately 8 percent of black voters have continued to say they are undecided or voting ‘other.’ This will likely move closer to 95 percent for Obama when all said and done. Obama has room to go up.

“If the race were to remain the way it is today, you won’t see these numbers come to fruition until very late in the night of Nov. 4 or perhaps the next day. The early numbers will likely show McCain ahead, as the counties where Obama is doing best are some of the largest counties and will be the slowest to report.”

Still, as we’re all very aware of by now, Obama doesn’t need to win Georgia. This state would just be electoral gravy for him. But McCain absolutely, 100% needs to win it, and the fact that he may have to pour increasingly dwindling resources into the state just to keep his numbers from slipping shows you how dire his situation is.

More as it develops…

TIME has the numbers.

In Nevada and North Carolina it favors Obama…

Cumulative early-vote totals in the Las Vegas area show ballots were cast by 31,875 Democrats and 13,371 Republicans through midday Monday. Republicans had the advantage in absentee balloting, 6,616 to 6,161 through noon Monday.

In the Reno area, a similar pattern occurred twice as many Democrats than Republicans voted early through noon Monday. [...]

Early voting opened Thursday and drew some 214,000 voters to the polls in the first two days, leading to hours-long lines in parts of the state and lengthy schedules for poll workers.

In the first few days, the balloting clearly favored Democrats, with those registered with the party making up 62 percent of those who had voted. Only 22 percent of the voters had been registered Republicans.

In Florida, McCain has a big jump…

Republicans have requested 295,000 absentee ballots statewide compared with 199,000 Democrats.

And in Georgia it’s anybody’s guess since they don’t keep track of party affiliation, although reports do have African American turnout at 39% of early voting. That’s up from 22% in 2004.

It’s overwhelmingly favoring Obama…

Across the state, Democrats showed the most first-day enthusiasm. Of the nearly 114,000 first-day voters, 64 percent were Democrats, 21 percent Republicans and 15 percent were unaffiliated.

African-American turnout was up significantly. Black voters, who make up about 22 percent of registered voters, were 36 percent of Thursday’s early voters.

In 2004, blacks made up 18.6 percent of voters.

This large percentage of early voting among African Americans follows similar patterns in Georgia…

A disproportionate number of Georgia’s 194,138 early voters are African-American, in what could be an encouraging sign for Sen. Barack Obama’s presidential campaign.

As of Wednesday, about 39 percent of those voters — 74,961 — are African-Americans, Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel’s office said.

African-Americans make up 29 percent of registered voters in the state, according to Oct.1 figures. They cast 25 percent of the total votes cast in the presidential election four years ago.

Simply put, this is the type of turnout you need to win. And if this is happening all across the country, then it hints at a landslide. I’m not saying it’ll happen, but the signs are starting to point in that direction.

Need more proof?

See the only other “North” state in the union.

McCain – 49%
Obama – 46%
MOE: +/-4

Is this an outlier? Well, FiveThirtyEight gives the poll a weight of 0.89, and that means it’s not nearly as reliable as other polls like Gallup’s daily, which carries a weight of 1.76.

Still…any poll numbers that show a lead this small for McCain at this point in the race has to be cause for concern. And with their resources dwindling, Obama may be able to make a final push that could put him over the top.

Also, let’s remember that Obama beat Hillary by a massive 35 point spread (66% to 31%) in the primaries, so he enjoys an extremely large base of support in the Peach State.

More as it develops…

I don’t think anybody believes Georgia is in play, but if the turnout is this high in a non-swing state, imagine what it’ll be in competitive locales.

From AJC:

A disproportionate number of Georgia’s 194,138 early voters are African-American, in what could be an encouraging sign for Sen. Barack Obama’s presidential campaign.

As of Wednesday, about 39 percent of those voters — 74,961 — are African-Americans, Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel’s office said.

African-Americans make up 29 percent of registered voters in the state, according to Oct.1 figures. They cast 25 percent of the total votes cast in the presidential election four years ago.

The thing to take away from this is the idea that we really don’t know what the effect of Obama’s superior ground game will be this year. And given the extremely high turnout in Georgia, it could widen the margins by at least another percent or two in places like Missouri, Ohio, Florida and even Indiana.

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As I’ve said before, Colin Powell’s endorsement could be one of the most important to swing voters this season, so how he views each candidates’ approach to this situation could actually be very important.

Complete transcript after the jump…

AMANPOUR: Except for, General Powell, it basically hopes that Russia is not going to be the aggressor. And if Russia is and you have to, you know, keep your NATO allies’ security, aren’t you then committed?

POWELL: Under Article 5 of the Washington Treaty, which is the NATO Treaty, when one member of the alliance is attacked from abroad — meaning outside the NATO geographic limits — then all members of NATO treat that as an attack.

AMANPOUR: And yet…

POWELL: Article 5 has only been invoked once in the history of the alliance, and that was on the 12th of September, 2001, when it was invoked in our favor, when the whole NATO alliance said we were attacked, the alliance was attacked on 9/11.

Now, in the current situation, the Russians acted brutally. I think they acted foolishly. But it was also absolutely predictable what the Russians would do. You could see them stacking up their troops.

And I think it was foolhardy on the part of President Saakashvili and the Georgian government to kick over this can, to light a match in a roomful of gas fumes.

SESNO: So you’re saying the Georgians provoked this?

POWELL: They did. I mean, there was a lot of reasons to have provocations in the area, but the match that started the conflagration was from the Georgian side.

AMANPOUR: And yet…

POWELL: And that’s a given.

AMANPOUR: And some debate in the presidential elections has basically been, “We are all Georgians now.” What does that mean? It’s the same as was said after 9/11.

POWELL: One candidate said that, and I’ll let the candidate explain it for himself.

(LAUGHTER)

SESNO: You can help a little, if you’d like.

POWELL: No, the fact of the matter is that you — you have to be very careful in a situation like this not just to leap to one side or the other until you’ve taken a good analysis of the whole situation.

This was something that might have been avoided if people had looked at the Russian troops that were stacked up, if people had realized that the Russians were serious about South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and if perhaps more guidance and suggestions had been given to President Saakashvili beyond those that he received, it might have been avoided.

But it wasn’t. It’s over. The Russians are the offenders right now. And we have to see that.

We cannot say to the Russians, “We are not going to allow the Georgians or Ukrainians or anyone else to start down the path toward NATO membership.” It’s not for the Russians to decide that.

But I think it is wise for us to look at the whole strategic situation and all of our equities before deciding how fast that should happen and whether it’s the time to do it right now.

The Russian Federation is not going to become the Soviet Union again. That movie failed at the box office. But they do have interests. And we have to think carefully about their interests.

So you have to treat Russia as a proud country that lost a lot of its pride some 15, 16 years ago, and it’s restored with a political leadership that is enormously popular in the country and with a level of wealth they’ve never had before, and with concerns about their near abroad, and treat them in a straightforward, business-like, objective way and not emotionally.

This is just odd…

McCain is traveling with the U.N.’s World Food Programme, whose work she monitored in Southeast Asia and Africa this spring and summer. McCain plans to meet with Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili and to visit wounded Georgian soldiers. She would also visit representatives of the HALO Trust, which works to remove land mines and on whose board she serves. [...]

Cindy McCain said she has been trying to get into Georgia since the conflict started, but it took time to arrange the logistics. Her husband, she said, is “very supportive. As soon as he saw what was happening — he and I, we connect on many levels. I mean, he knew immediately [that I would want to go]. I’ve been to Georgia with him; I know the country.”

Imagine if Michelle Obama was taking this trip. Imagine the outrage on the right as they’d accuse her of turning a foreign policy crisis into a photo op. And you know what? They’d be right.

I mean, what else can this trip be seen as since Cindy is essentially going to be in the country for less than a day? Yes, I know she has worked with the UN before, but folks, this is not “monitoring.”

Again, just odd.

To me, Joe Biden as VP makes a lot of sense for the younger Obama, and his latest overseas trip to Georgia definitely puts him at the top of the list.

From CNN:

(CNN) – When Joe Biden returns to Capitol Hill Monday from his two-day trip to embattled Georgia, vice presidential speculation will rest squarely on him.

The longtime Delaware senator and former presidential candidate has long been considered to be on the shortlist for Barack Obama’s running mate, but his quickly-planned trip to Georgia Saturday night at the behest of that country’s president left Washington buzzing he is the most likely choice.

After all, the Georgia crisis appears to have put national security issues again at the forefront of the presidential campaign, and it’s an issue where John McCain has long held the advantage over Obama. The Illinois senator, so the Beltway chatter goes, needs a running-mate with foreign policy experience now more than ever.

What do you think? Is he the best guy for the job? He’ll certainly be interesting to watch in the Veep debate. The guy has really come into his own over the past 8 years, and he could definitely make the case that he knows how to navigate the halls of power better than most in Washington.

Still, would it undermine Obama’s message of change?

More as it develops…