In my opinion, Huckabee was Obama’s biggest threat in 2012 given his personal appeal and ideas like the Fair Tax, which could be an easy populist sell in difficult times.

From Fox News:

“All the factors say go, but my heart says no,” Huckabee, who was considered the GOP frontrunner in several national polls, said on his Fox News Channel show. [...]

“The past few months have been times of deep personal reflection,” Huckabee said. “Even though I wasn’t actively establishing a campaign organization or seeking financial support to run again, polls have consistently put me at or near the top to be the Republican nominee.”

“But I know that under the best of circumstances, being President is a job that takes one to the limit of his or her human capacity,” he continued. “I can’t know or predict the future, but I know for now my answer is clear and firm: I will not seek the Republican nomination for President this year.”

Here’s the video…

Another reason for this? Huckabee is a VERY smart guy and sees that it’ll be really hard to beat Obama in 2012 given how disorganized the GOP is right now when it comes to the POTUS run. So…why not let Romney run, try to explain his healthcare decisions in Massachusetts and then fail? That takes out his biggest rival. Meanwhile, he has his TV show, continues to spread the gospel of Huckabee and build his base.

Then, in 2016, when there’s no clear Dem frontrunner (certainly not Joe Biden) you can bet Huckabee will be throwing his hat in the ring. I can almost guarantee it.

What are your thoughts?

Will he? Won’t he?

Nobody knows until tomorrow night.

And he’s doing it on Fox News:

Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee is expected to announce whether or not he will run for president on his Fox News Channel show Saturday evening, a major moment in the nascent 2012 contest.

“Governor Huckabee will announce tomorrow night on his program whether or not he intends to explore a presidential bid,” said Woody Fraser, the executive producer of “Huckabee” in a statement. “He has not told anyone at Fox News Channel his decision.”

While Huckabee’s Saturday show is always taped, his announcement about 2012 will run live, according to an informed source.

And yet one of his aides hasn’t heard he’s running, so he doesn’t think the answer will be “It’s on.”

From WSJ:

Mr. Huckabee has told followers to tune in to his Saturday evening show on Fox News for what he calls a major announcement. But Ed Rollins, who directed his 2008 campaign and has been organizing his 2012 campaign-in-waiting, said he has not been consulted.

“I’ve heard nothing, which indicates to me he’s not running,” Mr. Rollins said in an interview.

To me, that sounds pretty definitive. If Hucakbee hasn’t let his campaign manager for 2012 know his intentions, would he really spring it on everybody on national television?

More as it develops…

Here’s how it shook out, according to CNN:

1. Huckabee: 23%
2. Gingrich: 11%
3. Bachmann: 10%
4. Romney: 8%
5. Pawlenty: 7%
6. Trump: 7%
7. The rest (Haley Barbour, John Bolton, Godfather’s Pizza CEO Herman Cain, Mitch Daniels, Jon Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum): 34%

The usual caveats apply…straw polls are usually just a popularity contest, it’s very early still and this is just one county in SoCa.

Still, it’s interesting to see that Huckabee has so much support, while Palin doesn’t. And once again…Bachmann shows up over Romney. Interesting…

My bet is Huckabee will wait on running until 2016. I think most GOP hopefuls feel that Obama’s campaign machine is just too big to beat and that folks like Palin, Romney and Gingrich will suck the air out of the room.

Your thoughts?

No doubt that it costs a lot of money to become President, and that may keep Mike from putting his hat in the ring in 2012.

Still, I don’t think this is any sort of indication that he won’t be running. He cites his popularity in swing states and traditionally blue states as a reason why he may just hang back and let the field thin…and then enter.

Personally, Huckabee seems to me to be one of two real threats to Obama in 2012. The other is Romney.

What do you think?

Both Newt and Rick are making presidential rumblings and that means that paying them on a “news” channel is a bad idea…apparently.

From New York Times:

On Wednesday, the cable news channel suspended two paid contributors, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum, who are both weighing presidential bids.

While the channel’s move seems pre-emptive — Mr. Gingrich is expected to signal his intentions on Thursday — it still leaves Fox with three other potential candidates: Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee and John Bolton. But those three, according to Fox, have not shown serious intentions to set up presidential exploratory committees.

This is what they had to say…

“We can’t have Speaker Gingrich on our payroll while he is in the midst of an exploratory committee to see if he’s going to run for office,” Dianne Brandi, Fox News’s executive vice president for legal and business affairs, told the Los Angeles Times. “It’s a clear conflict.”

So, Gingrich and Santorum are gone. Now they need to do the right thing with Huckabee and Palin (I seriously doubt Bolton would run). We all know those two are running.

By the way…

No other television networks employ anyone who is expected to run for the Republican nomination.

Do they employ any Democrats?

Just saying…

Obama is baiting the trap and if the GOP candidate doesn’t take it in 2012, it could spell trouble for the Dems.

Last night the President said this…

I have no doubt that everyone will find something in this compromise that they don’t like. In fact, there are things in here that I don’t like — namely the extension of the tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans and the wealthiest estates. But these tax cuts will expire in two years. And I’m confident that as we make tough choices about bringing our deficit down, as I engage in a conversation with the American people about the hard choices we’re going to have to make to secure our future and our children’s future and our grandchildren’s future, it will become apparent that we cannot afford to extend those tax cuts any longer.

We already know that tax cuts for the wealthy are wildly unpopular and polling shows this again and again. And the sentiment among Tea Partiers is that the deficit needs to come down, and quick. Since Romney (I’m assuming he’ll be the GOP’s choice) can’t attack Obama on healthcare since he enacted virtually the same system in Massachusetts while Governor, the “big spender” message is what he’ll shellac Obama with…and it’ll stick.

But here’s the thing…voters aren’t going to let the GOP have their cake and eat it too. They’re already seeing how they’re saying one thing and then doing another with this tax cut compromise. So, if Romney makes a campaign pledge to let those tax cuts expire due to the rising deficit, he could win. If not, I don’t see much hope for the GOP.

Three caveats to this.

#1 – If Sarah Palin somehow manages to win the nomination, I don’t think there’s anything she can do to actually win the White House. So this argument will be moot. Well, there is one really outside chance and it’s talked about in #2. So let’s get to that…

#2 – If Huckabee gets nominated, and I see him as Romney’s biggest challenge, he’s probably going to run on the FairTax plan, which makes the above moot as well. So if Palin adopts this idea, that could be good for her campaign.

#3 – As always, a terrorist attack changes everything.

Your thoughts?

And by a very large margin.

Hotline On Call breaks down the numbers…

Mitt Romney: 81 points
Tim Pawlenty: 46
John Thune: 38
Haley Barbour: 28
Mitch Daniels: 25
Sarah Palin: 25

Note how far down Palin is on that list. That’s because, as noted, this is a poll of party insiders and they really don’t like her.

So what do Dem insiders think? Once again, Mitt’s a hit…

Romney: 29%
Thune: 15
Pawlenty: 13
Daniels: 11
Gingrich: 6

By the way, where did Huckabee go? Did the tragic Maurice Clemmons incident really hurt him that much?

Also, what’s with John Thune jumping to the top of the pack all of a sudden? If Mitt is a shoo-in for the GOP nomination in 2012, would Thune be a good running mate?

I’d expect the former Arkansas Governor’s stock to drop significantly after the word gets out about how he views the presidency.

From Politico:

Mike Huckabee, the former Republican governor from Arkansas who has his own Fox show told Chris Wallace on “Fox News Sunday” that a 2012 presidential bid is “less than likely” and depends on whether Roger Ailes, the head of Fox News, keeps liking his show.

“The reason I wouldn’t is that this Fox gig I’ve got is really wonderful, ” he said, talking about whether or not he would get in the race given that he is a GOP front runner according to most recent polls. “Jumping into the pool, you gottta make sure there is some water in it.”

Now, I realize that this is the kind of “I could take it or leave it” attitude that some applauded Bush for, but I don’t think it’s going to fly in 2012. Republicans need a real leader who’s serious about the job, and having Huck say this so early and nonchalantly is bound to come back and bite him in the ass if he does decide to run.

Also, while Huckabee’s TV show is enjoying some limited ratings success, it’s still small potatoes in the grand scheme of things. Especially when compared with being the leader of the free world.

Somewhere, Mitt Romney is smiling.

Found this little nugget in a piece about Huck in the Politico today.

Apparently he’s leading the pack with GOPers…

Gallup’s survey of Republicans found that 71 percent would consider voting for him, more than for Palin, Romney or others. The same survey found that he’s the only Republican whom even 50 percent of Americans say they think is qualified to be president.

And here are the numbers from Gallup…

First, would you vote for a specific candidate?

Then, is the candidate qualified?

Yet more bad news for Palin on that one, and it’s unlikely she’ll ever be able to undo the damage she did to her image last year.

But let’s get back to Huck, specifically his character. Here’s an interesting sidenote in that Politico piece on the Club For Growth…

Huckabee met in the spring with Pat Toomey, then the president of the Wall Street-backed Club for Growth, which had attacked him during the 2008 campaign for raising taxes in Arkansas.

“It wasn’t very productive,” he said of the meeting. “I realized then that these guys are just what I thought they were — they’re pay for play, and they do it anonymously on behalf of people who don’t want to be known as the funders of these hit operations. I find that repulsive.”

No surprise there, but a round of applause for Huck’s bluntness. That’s what I like about him: he’s honest. Well, as honest as any politician can be.

And while I don’t agree with a lot of what he says, I think he’d make good decisions if given all the facts. This alone makes him formidable in 2012. But would he be able to split the evangelical base with Palin and still beat Romney? Perhaps…and it would be the Ron Paul crowd he could attract with his Fair Tax idea and getting rid of the IRS.

I can’t wait to find out.

Public Policy Polling pitted the top Republicans (including Jeb Bush) against Obama in a hypothetical matchup and found that the former Arkansas Governor’s folksy ways puts him at the top of the pack. And this makes sense. Huckabee is amiable, has some ideas that at least sound new (get rid of the IRS, FAIR tax) and…ummm…did I mention he’s folksy?

From PPP:

Huckabee comes the closest, trailing Obama 48-41. In the six months PPP has run this poll he has been the most competitive Republican every time. Obama’s lead has increased from 47-44 over the former Arkansas Governor a month ago.

Mitt Romney does next best, down 48-39. In some ways he looks like a stronger general candidate than a primary one though. He has the best favorability of the GOP quartet with Democrats and independents, but only 50% of Republicans have a positive opinion of him compared to 70% for Mike Huckabee and 69% for Sarah Palin. Will he be able to connect well enough with the GOP base to snag the nomination?

And here’s how they all break out:

• Obama/Huckabee – 48/41 – Obama +7
• Obama/Romney – 48/39 – Obama +9
• Obama/Bush – 50/37 – Obama +13
• Obama/Palin – 53/38 – Obama + 15

Yes, the thought of Palin scares more people than the thought of another Bush. But both campaigns are DOA. Guaranteed.

To me, the Romney/Huckabee matchup will be the story. Huckabee obviously has the base locked up tight because he’s so overtly religious, but he scares independents. So he’ll have to do a lot of work to reach out to moderates. Still, it won’t be easy. However, even though Romney appeals to fiscal independents, the base doesn’t trust him. Romney’s saving grace? Palin. She could fragment Huckabee’s support just enough to let the more moderate Romney run away with it…much like Edwards did to Clinton so Obama could thread the needle.

Regardless, I’m anxious for 2012. Can you tell? :-)

Some interesting polling numbers from PPP via Pollster.com:

Favorable / Unfavorable
Newt Gingrich: 33 / 42
Mike Huckabee: 45 / 28
Sarah Palin: 40 / 49
Mitt Romney: 37 / 34

2012 President
Obama 49%, Gingrich 41%
Obama 47%, Huckabee 44%
Obama 52%, Palin 38%
Obama 47%, Romney 40%

What is most notable to me are the 2012 presidential match-ups. Mike Huckabee is the favorite right now — over Gingrich or Romney. What is that all about?

It seems that most hardcore conservatives that I know or read claim that they loathe the Huckster (and the Club For Growth certainly has a disdain for him). Most seem to favor either Gingrich or Romney. Heck, B-Diddy [an über-conservative contributor at my blog] and I even had a conversation wherein he described a Romney/Gingrich “dream ticket” for 2012. I’m not sure about that idea, but what I do know is that Huckabee has some kind of traction for 2012 already — especially since Sarah Palin continues to embarrass herself and other Republicans.

So the question remains; are Republicans going to warm to Mike Huckabee?

(NOTE: I misread the poll results. The poll is among ALL voters. I’ll strike what isn’t relevant anymore, but most of my comments weren’t about the Republican nature of this poll anyway. Sorry for the confusion and thanks to Simon for pointing this out.)

This was a bit of a surprise, especially considering that only Republican voters were polled, but it shows who’s leading the pack in a couple years.

Basically, Huckabee is in a surprisingly good position, but Romney, Palin and Gingrich all have double digit deficits.

From Public Policy Polling:

Huckabee fares the best of the top Republican contenders at this point in time, trailing Obama 49-42. That margin is basically the same as what Obama won by against John McCain in November. Huckabee also has the best favorability numbers of the Republican quartet at 42/34. Even after running for President last year a quarter of the country doesn’t have an opinion about him one way or the other.

Sarah Palin’s numbers are an interesting conundrum. She easily has the best favorability among Republicans voters, with 76% saying they have a positive opinion of her. The other three range from 60-67 with the party base. But she also has the largest percentage of GOP voters- 21%- who say they would vote for Obama if she ended up being the party nominee. So for the folks in the party who don’t like her that feeling is strong enough they’d rather vote for a Democrat. It adds up to a 12 point deficit for her, 53-41. Overall the electorate has a negative opinion of Palin, 42/49.

The low 60% favorability rating among GOP voters belongs to Mitt Romney, certainly an indication that securing the nomination is likely to once again be a struggle for him. He is viewed favorably by the largest numbers of Democrats for any of the Republican candidates in the survey, at 27%. He trails Obama 50-39.

Obama: 49%
Huckabee: 42%
Obama +7

Obama: 50%
Romney: 39%
Obama +11

Obama: 53%
Palin: 41%
Obama +12

Obama: 52%
Gingrich: 39%
Obama +13

All the normal caveats apply here that it’s too early, etc., but if Obama is under 50% and Huckabee is only 7% behind, well, the GOP will take note of that. But if Huckabee genuinely gets the nod as the candidate, I think it would tear the GOP in two for the foreseeable future since it would seem like the religious right’s candidate.

Is he running for 2012 or America’s Sweetheart?

Probably both.

Jonathan Martin lays it out…

Mike Huckabee has a new book coming out, a weekly talk show on Fox and is an in-demand speaker.

But apparently he’s got some spare time.

The former Arkansas governor and once and perhaps future presidential candidate has inked a deal with ABC radio to deliver The Huckabee Report weekday mornings and afternoons. The short recordings, to begin just after the new year, will amount to Huckabee’s take on the news of the day.

What’s next? Huckabee, The Movie?

I like the guy, but come on…aren’t we’re gonna get sick of him if he spreads himself too thin?

Sure, it’s just a book tour, but we all know what it’s really about.

From NY Times:

Mr. Huckabee’s new book could offer him a fresh platform to weigh in on the emerging debate over the Republican Party’s future. His Web site describes it as: “Huckabee’s amazing story, in his own words s — from making commercials with Chuck Norris to meeting a Michigan woman who insisted on donating her wedding ring.

But this is more than just a campaign memoir. It’s a vision for a smarter, fairer type of politics— “‘vertical politics” — as he has espoused before, that focuses on common-sense solutions for education, health care, the economy, and many other issues. It’s not about right versus left; it’s about taking America up rather than down.”

If that’s Huckabee’s message in 2012, it’ll need some tweaking. “I’ll see your “change” and raise you some “vertical politics”?” Hmm…

Perhaps, it should be “I’ll see your “change” and raise you some “common sense.”

Regardless, the themes are emerging…

Yeah, yeah, I know it sucks, but this is politics and the speculation is bound to beginning immediately.

In any event, NBC and the Wall Street Journal did a poll and guess who topped their list?

That’s right: Mitt Romney.

I wrote yesterday about how he was already starting his bid during the campaign itself and it actually got picked up by Real Clear Politics.

Here’s more from First Read:

NBC-WSJ GOP pollster Neil Newhouse did a post-election survey last night, and here’s what he found: Just 12% of those surveyed believed Palin should be the GOP’s new leader; instead 29% of voters said Romney, followed by 20% who say Huckabee.

Among GOPers, it was Romney 33%, Huckabee 20% and Palin 18%.

I don’t think she’ll try it. Especially after the Georgetown cocktail crowd getd done destroying her folksy reputation.

No, best to hang back in Alaska for another 8 years and be the challenger in 2016.

Tucker Carlson is convinced he’s already running.

So am I.

Here’s more…

Romney dropped out of the presidential race in February, but he never went away. He quickly became a regular guest on cable news, started a political action committee (which, according to National Review, has already given away more than $200,000 in donations), and this fall began stumping in earnest for various Republican candidates, including John McCain.

In the past four days, Romney has hit nearly a dozen states on behalf of the McCain campaign, but really on his own behalf. This is what groundwork looks like when it’s being laid.

It’s the oldest cliche in politics that the next campaign starts the day after the election, and this year that is especially true on the Republican side. Republicans hate chaos and uncertainty, but after eight years of an unpopular administration,they no longer have the luxury of an orderly succession. As one Republican consultant said to me the other day, come Wednesday morning the party will resemble post-Soviet Afghanistan: “Everybody’s going to declare themselves warlord.”

Still, Carlson thinks Romney will have to wrestle the nomination away from Palin…

At this point, Sarah Palin would seem to have the most powerful arsenal. While Democrats tend to revile their losing candidates, Republicans revere theirs. Losing to Obama and Biden won’t destroy Palin’s reputation within the party. It might enhance it. Palin also has the advantage of being world famous, she’s admired by party activists, and she can draw huge crowds. And unlike Romney, she’ll never be accused of being a phony.

Authenticity was always Romney’s biggest problem. Being a Mormon hurt him with evangelicals, especially in the South. But what sunk Romney was the suspicion that he was playing a part. A self-described free market conservative, as governor of Massachusetts he instituted health care reforms that look very much like what Obama is proposing now. (Anyone who supports Obama’s heath care plan ought to take a look at how Romney’s program is working out. Not well.)

Sure, I think Romney comes off as a phony, but Palin is radioactive at this point and I don’t see her having much of a shot at all in 2012. I know, very presumptive of me, but I still think the economy will be the big issue in 4 years and Romney owns that one. Palin doesn’t have anything but her charm, and even that’s worn thin with a majority of the electorate.

What’s more, if Romney starts running now his persona will start to seem more genuine to the Republican faithful and then he’s off to the races. Sure, Huckabee will still be a formidable opponent, but Huck just can’t swing the moderates his way. However, imagine Huckabee as Mitt’s VP nominee. He’ll have sewn up the base right there.

We shall see…

Yes, Palin’s on the list, but she ranks third behind Romney and Huckabee. And with a field like that, does she really think she can overcome the perceptions that have formed about her during this election cycle?

From Newsweek:

If John McCain is not elected president, which one of the following three possible candidates would you be most likely to support for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012?

Romney: 35%
Huckabee: 26%
Palin: 20%

Interesting numbers, right? And certainly not unexpected.

But check out how the numbers break out when we look at the preferences between Traditional Republicans and Social Issue Republicans…

Traditional Republicans
Romney: 42%
Huckabee: 23%
Palin: 19%

Social Issue Republicans
Huckabee: 31%
Romney: 30%
Palin: 23%

What does this tell me? Palin doesn’t have a chance. Huckabee will take Iowa again and Romney will take New Hampshire. And what state’s left for her to build momentum? South Carolina? Not likely. Huckabee will easily out “folk” her during the debates.

And ultimately, I think the Traditional Republicans are going to try and reclaim their party in 2012. So that doesn’t leave her any room to make a serious bid.

One last data point…Republicans apparently want her to run for President in 2012 by 44% to 38%. Preference break out like this…

Traditional Republicans
Yes: 42%
No: 40%

Social Issue Republicans
Yes: 52%
No: 34%

Interestingly enough, Huckabee better try and convince her to not run because she’ll doom his chances.

Still, it’s best Sarah sits the next one out and focuses on 2016. That is, if she even wants the job.

Looks like somebody has given the green light to the surrogates to talk about Obama’s past drug use.

This doesn’t surprise me about Giuliani, but Huckabee?

First Giuliani…

Then here’s a link to Huck.

Ugh.

Former Arkansas Governor and presidential contender Mike Huckabee could apparently have a career as an EMT.

This weekend at the North Carolina GOP convention breakfast, Huckabee performed the Heimlich maneuver on Lt. Governor candidate Robert Pittenger who began choking while sitting next to Huckabee.

In all seriousness, praise goes out to Huckabee for quick action. In less seriousness, maybe this was all set up to prove Huckabee’s vice presidential qualifications?

After all, presidential choking has been a serious matter in the past. John McCain might want a man like Huckabee around – just in case.

Don’t worry, Huckabee Fans… I was just as perplexed as you when I saw the list of potential Veeps invited to McCain’s BBQ didn’t include Mike Huckabee. Today word’s leaked out that Mike was, in fact, invited to the big McCain Memorial Day Weekend – but he couldn’t make it!

Sarah Huckabee says her parents will be on a long-planned trip celebrating their 34th wedding anniversary this weekend. (Geez, what ever happened to “Bros before Hoes?” Or perhaps that slogan doesn’t translate so well to marriages…)

Well, Huckabee’s not the only one missing. Others who were invited but couldn’t make it include: Minnesota Gov.Tim Pawlenty, and NC Sen. Richard Burr.

Turns out financial adviser Rob Portman has agreed to eat their hotdogs for them.