Found this little nugget in a piece about Huck in the Politico today.

Apparently he’s leading the pack with GOPers…

Gallup’s survey of Republicans found that 71 percent would consider voting for him, more than for Palin, Romney or others. The same survey found that he’s the only Republican whom even 50 percent of Americans say they think is qualified to be president.

And here are the numbers from Gallup…

First, would you vote for a specific candidate?

Then, is the candidate qualified?

Yet more bad news for Palin on that one, and it’s unlikely she’ll ever be able to undo the damage she did to her image last year.

But let’s get back to Huck, specifically his character. Here’s an interesting sidenote in that Politico piece on the Club For Growth…

Huckabee met in the spring with Pat Toomey, then the president of the Wall Street-backed Club for Growth, which had attacked him during the 2008 campaign for raising taxes in Arkansas.

“It wasn’t very productive,” he said of the meeting. “I realized then that these guys are just what I thought they were — they’re pay for play, and they do it anonymously on behalf of people who don’t want to be known as the funders of these hit operations. I find that repulsive.”

No surprise there, but a round of applause for Huck’s bluntness. That’s what I like about him: he’s honest. Well, as honest as any politician can be.

And while I don’t agree with a lot of what he says, I think he’d make good decisions if given all the facts. This alone makes him formidable in 2012. But would he be able to split the evangelical base with Palin and still beat Romney? Perhaps…and it would be the Ron Paul crowd he could attract with his Fair Tax idea and getting rid of the IRS.

I can’t wait to find out.

Public Policy Polling pitted the top Republicans (including Jeb Bush) against Obama in a hypothetical matchup and found that the former Arkansas Governor’s folksy ways puts him at the top of the pack. And this makes sense. Huckabee is amiable, has some ideas that at least sound new (get rid of the IRS, FAIR tax) and…ummm…did I mention he’s folksy?

From PPP:

Huckabee comes the closest, trailing Obama 48-41. In the six months PPP has run this poll he has been the most competitive Republican every time. Obama’s lead has increased from 47-44 over the former Arkansas Governor a month ago.

Mitt Romney does next best, down 48-39. In some ways he looks like a stronger general candidate than a primary one though. He has the best favorability of the GOP quartet with Democrats and independents, but only 50% of Republicans have a positive opinion of him compared to 70% for Mike Huckabee and 69% for Sarah Palin. Will he be able to connect well enough with the GOP base to snag the nomination?

And here’s how they all break out:

• Obama/Huckabee – 48/41 – Obama +7
• Obama/Romney – 48/39 – Obama +9
• Obama/Bush – 50/37 – Obama +13
• Obama/Palin – 53/38 – Obama + 15

Yes, the thought of Palin scares more people than the thought of another Bush. But both campaigns are DOA. Guaranteed.

To me, the Romney/Huckabee matchup will be the story. Huckabee obviously has the base locked up tight because he’s so overtly religious, but he scares independents. So he’ll have to do a lot of work to reach out to moderates. Still, it won’t be easy. However, even though Romney appeals to fiscal independents, the base doesn’t trust him. Romney’s saving grace? Palin. She could fragment Huckabee’s support just enough to let the more moderate Romney run away with it…much like Edwards did to Clinton so Obama could thread the needle.

Regardless, I’m anxious for 2012. Can you tell? :-)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Newt Gingrich: 33 / 42
Mike Huckabee: 45 / 28
Sarah Palin: 40 / 49
Mitt Romney: 37 / 34

2012 President
Obama 49%, Gingrich 41%
Obama 47%, Huckabee 44%
Obama 52%, Palin 38%
Obama 47%, Romney 40%

What is most notable to me are the 2012 presidential match-ups. Mike Huckabee is the favorite right now — over Gingrich or Romney. What is that all about?

It seems that most hardcore conservatives that I know or read claim that they loathe the Huckster (and the Club For Growth certainly has a disdain for him). Most seem to favor either Gingrich or Romney. Heck, B-Diddy [an über-conservative contributor at my blog] and I even had a conversation wherein he described a Romney/Gingrich “dream ticket” for 2012. I’m not sure about that idea, but what I do know is that Huckabee has some kind of traction for 2012 already — especially since Sarah Palin continues to embarrass herself and other Republicans.

So the question remains; are Republicans going to warm to Mike Huckabee?

(NOTE: I misread the poll results. The poll is among ALL voters. I’ll strike what isn’t relevant anymore, but most of my comments weren’t about the Republican nature of this poll anyway. Sorry for the confusion and thanks to Simon for pointing this out.)

This was a bit of a surprise, especially considering that only Republican voters were polled, but it shows who’s leading the pack in a couple years.

Basically, Huckabee is in a surprisingly good position, but Romney, Palin and Gingrich all have double digit deficits.

From Public Policy Polling:

Huckabee fares the best of the top Republican contenders at this point in time, trailing Obama 49-42. That margin is basically the same as what Obama won by against John McCain in November. Huckabee also has the best favorability numbers of the Republican quartet at 42/34. Even after running for President last year a quarter of the country doesn’t have an opinion about him one way or the other.

Sarah Palin’s numbers are an interesting conundrum. She easily has the best favorability among Republicans voters, with 76% saying they have a positive opinion of her. The other three range from 60-67 with the party base. But she also has the largest percentage of GOP voters- 21%- who say they would vote for Obama if she ended up being the party nominee. So for the folks in the party who don’t like her that feeling is strong enough they’d rather vote for a Democrat. It adds up to a 12 point deficit for her, 53-41. Overall the electorate has a negative opinion of Palin, 42/49.

The low 60% favorability rating among GOP voters belongs to Mitt Romney, certainly an indication that securing the nomination is likely to once again be a struggle for him. He is viewed favorably by the largest numbers of Democrats for any of the Republican candidates in the survey, at 27%. He trails Obama 50-39.

Obama: 49%
Huckabee: 42%
Obama +7

Obama: 50%
Romney: 39%
Obama +11

Obama: 53%
Palin: 41%
Obama +12

Obama: 52%
Gingrich: 39%
Obama +13

All the normal caveats apply here that it’s too early, etc., but if Obama is under 50% and Huckabee is only 7% behind, well, the GOP will take note of that. But if Huckabee genuinely gets the nod as the candidate, I think it would tear the GOP in two for the foreseeable future since it would seem like the religious right’s candidate.

Is he running for 2012 or America’s Sweetheart?

Probably both.

Jonathan Martin lays it out…

Mike Huckabee has a new book coming out, a weekly talk show on Fox and is an in-demand speaker.

But apparently he’s got some spare time.

The former Arkansas governor and once and perhaps future presidential candidate has inked a deal with ABC radio to deliver The Huckabee Report weekday mornings and afternoons. The short recordings, to begin just after the new year, will amount to Huckabee’s take on the news of the day.

What’s next? Huckabee, The Movie?

I like the guy, but come on…aren’t we’re gonna get sick of him if he spreads himself too thin?

Sure, it’s just a book tour, but we all know what it’s really about.

From NY Times:

Mr. Huckabee’s new book could offer him a fresh platform to weigh in on the emerging debate over the Republican Party’s future. His Web site describes it as: “Huckabee’s amazing story, in his own words s — from making commercials with Chuck Norris to meeting a Michigan woman who insisted on donating her wedding ring.

But this is more than just a campaign memoir. It’s a vision for a smarter, fairer type of politics— “‘vertical politics” — as he has espoused before, that focuses on common-sense solutions for education, health care, the economy, and many other issues. It’s not about right versus left; it’s about taking America up rather than down.”

If that’s Huckabee’s message in 2012, it’ll need some tweaking. “I’ll see your “change” and raise you some “vertical politics”?” Hmm…

Perhaps, it should be “I’ll see your “change” and raise you some “common sense.”

Regardless, the themes are emerging…

In any event, NBC and the Wall Street Journal did a poll and guess who topped their list?

That’s right: Mitt Romney.

I wrote yesterday about how he was already starting his bid during the campaign itself and it actually got picked up by Real Clear Politics.

Here’s more from First Read:

NBC-WSJ GOP pollster Neil Newhouse did a post-election survey last night, and here’s what he found: Just 12% of those surveyed believed Palin should be the GOP’s new leader; instead 29% of voters said Romney, followed by 20% who say Huckabee.

Among GOPers, it was Romney 33%, Huckabee 20% and Palin 18%.

I don’t think she’ll try it. Especially after the Georgetown cocktail crowd getd done destroying her folksy reputation.

No, best to hang back in Alaska for another 8 years and be the challenger in 2016.

Tucker Carlson is convinced he’s already running.

So am I.

Here’s more…

Romney dropped out of the presidential race in February, but he never went away. He quickly became a regular guest on cable news, started a political action committee (which, according to National Review, has already given away more than $200,000 in donations), and this fall began stumping in earnest for various Republican candidates, including John McCain.

In the past four days, Romney has hit nearly a dozen states on behalf of the McCain campaign, but really on his own behalf. This is what groundwork looks like when it’s being laid.

It’s the oldest cliche in politics that the next campaign starts the day after the election, and this year that is especially true on the Republican side. Republicans hate chaos and uncertainty, but after eight years of an unpopular administration,they no longer have the luxury of an orderly succession. As one Republican consultant said to me the other day, come Wednesday morning the party will resemble post-Soviet Afghanistan: “Everybody’s going to declare themselves warlord.”

Still, Carlson thinks Romney will have to wrestle the nomination away from Palin…

At this point, Sarah Palin would seem to have the most powerful arsenal. While Democrats tend to revile their losing candidates, Republicans revere theirs. Losing to Obama and Biden won’t destroy Palin’s reputation within the party. It might enhance it. Palin also has the advantage of being world famous, she’s admired by party activists, and she can draw huge crowds. And unlike Romney, she’ll never be accused of being a phony.

Authenticity was always Romney’s biggest problem. Being a Mormon hurt him with evangelicals, especially in the South. But what sunk Romney was the suspicion that he was playing a part. A self-described free market conservative, as governor of Massachusetts he instituted health care reforms that look very much like what Obama is proposing now. (Anyone who supports Obama’s heath care plan ought to take a look at how Romney’s program is working out. Not well.)

Sure, I think Romney comes off as a phony, but Palin is radioactive at this point and I don’t see her having much of a shot at all in 2012. I know, very presumptive of me, but I still think the economy will be the big issue in 4 years and Romney owns that one. Palin doesn’t have anything but her charm, and even that’s worn thin with a majority of the electorate.

What’s more, if Romney starts running now his persona will start to seem more genuine to the Republican faithful and then he’s off to the races. Sure, Huckabee will still be a formidable opponent, but Huck just can’t swing the moderates his way. However, imagine Huckabee as Mitt’s VP nominee. He’ll have sewn up the base right there.

We shall see…

Yes, Palin’s on the list, but she ranks third behind Romney and Huckabee. And with a field like that, does she really think she can overcome the perceptions that have formed about her during this election cycle?

From Newsweek:

If John McCain is not elected president, which one of the following three possible candidates would you be most likely to support for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012?

Romney: 35%
Huckabee: 26%
Palin: 20%

Interesting numbers, right? And certainly not unexpected.

But check out how the numbers break out when we look at the preferences between Traditional Republicans and Social Issue Republicans…

Traditional Republicans
Romney: 42%
Huckabee: 23%
Palin: 19%

Social Issue Republicans
Huckabee: 31%
Romney: 30%
Palin: 23%

What does this tell me? Palin doesn’t have a chance. Huckabee will take Iowa again and Romney will take New Hampshire. And what state’s left for her to build momentum? South Carolina? Not likely. Huckabee will easily out “folk” her during the debates.

And ultimately, I think the Traditional Republicans are going to try and reclaim their party in 2012. So that doesn’t leave her any room to make a serious bid.

One last data point…Republicans apparently want her to run for President in 2012 by 44% to 38%. Preference break out like this…

Traditional Republicans
Yes: 42%
No: 40%

Social Issue Republicans
Yes: 52%
No: 34%

Interestingly enough, Huckabee better try and convince her to not run because she’ll doom his chances.

Still, it’s best Sarah sits the next one out and focuses on 2016. That is, if she even wants the job.

This doesn’t surprise me about Giuliani, but Huckabee?

First Giuliani…

Then here’s a link to Huck.

Ugh.

This weekend at the North Carolina GOP convention breakfast, Huckabee performed the Heimlich maneuver on Lt. Governor candidate Robert Pittenger who began choking while sitting next to Huckabee.

In all seriousness, praise goes out to Huckabee for quick action. In less seriousness, maybe this was all set up to prove Huckabee’s vice presidential qualifications?

After all, presidential choking has been a serious matter in the past. John McCain might want a man like Huckabee around – just in case.

Sarah Huckabee says her parents will be on a long-planned trip celebrating their 34th wedding anniversary this weekend. (Geez, what ever happened to “Bros before Hoes?” Or perhaps that slogan doesn’t translate so well to marriages…)

Well, Huckabee’s not the only one missing. Others who were invited but couldn’t make it include: Minnesota Gov.Tim Pawlenty, and NC Sen. Richard Burr.

Turns out financial adviser Rob Portman has agreed to eat their hotdogs for them.

What are Ticket Brands?

By now you’re probably familiar with the basics on picking a #2. Traditionally, analysts emphasize the importance of selecting a nominee that balances geographic location, age and/or ideology. However, VP expert Dan Coen says these days it’s more about picking a running mate that will fuel a “Rock Star Tour.” The nominee should be someone who emphasizes the good qualities to build a brand and captivate the electorate.

The Huckabee-McCain Ticket Brand:

This week Mike Huckabee ups the stakes by declaring his intention to become John McCain’s #2. On Sunday, Huckabee appeared on NBC’s  “Meet The Press” to say, “Running for Vice President is not something one does…” But “There’s no one I would rather be on the ticket with than John McCain,” which makes one wonder if there’s some secret discussions taking place on the Straight Talk Express. “Whether I do the best for him is something only he can decide,” he adds. He also gives us a hint as to what the GOP attack strategy will be like if Obama takes the nomination: In a time of crisis, we need a reliable president, not a test drive.

McCain once said it was imperative that his #2 take a pro-life stance (which, of course, rules out Lieberman but boosts Huckabee). The Huckster is certainly forthcoming about his Evangelical beliefs, which could assuage the fears of Christian Conservatives who are still on the fence, feeling shunned by the McCain camp thus so far. A McCain-Huckabee ticket exudes: a forthcoming, transparent, “trust-me” sort of government, as well as a more balanced agenda that not only addresses foreign policy concerns but also progressively deals with immigration and economic reforms back home. They’re both affable characters that tempt many fence-sitting Independents or Democrats who’d feel bitter if their candidates didn’t win the nomination.

No joke.

(CNN) – During a speech before the National Rifle Association convention Friday afternoon in Louisville, Kentucky, former Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee — who has endorsed presumptive GOP nominee John McCain — joked that an unexpected offstage noise was Democrat Barack Obama looking to avoid a gunman.

“That was Barack Obama, he just tripped off a chair, he’s getting ready to speak,” said the former Arkansas governor, to audience laughter. “Somebody aimed a gun at him and he dove for the floor.”

Also, here’s the video.

Now I’m sure Mike really didn’t mean anything by it, but this is the kind of joke he’ll want to stay far, far away from.

Seriously.

UPDATE:
As expected, Huck makes a statement clearing the air…

“During my speech at the NRA a loud noise backstage, that sounded like a chair falling, distracted the crowd and interrupted my speech. I made an offhand remark that was in no way intended to offend or disparage Sen. Obama. I apologize that my comments were offensive, that was never my intention.”

Again, I’m sure Huck didn’t mean anything by it, but it’s still one heck of a gaffe given the tragic historical context of shootings and African-American leaders. Even the audience’s muted response suggested they understood this. Obviously, it’s good to see him clarify this almost immediately.

Also, let me say for the record that I think Huckabee is one of the more even-handed voices in this primary season and a seemingly well-intentioned guy. And while we disagree on many issues, I completely trust that he’ll be a welcome addition to the conversation about changing the tone of Washington in the years to come.

Huckabee is media savvy, playing well on news and faux news shows alike.

Huckabee’s popularity among southern evangelicals could help blunt Barack Obama’s popularity among southern Blacks.

Huckabee’s blue-collar populism (read: liberalism) could be instrumental in winning over Hillary Clinton’s base of voters in swing states/

Of course, as Allahpundit’s closing remark (he jokingly wants to write in Hillary Clinton) makes clear, a McCain/Huckabee ticket would make certain kinds of conservatives very ill. And while I find many of Huckabee’s policies acceptable enough (if a little too couched in populist rhetoric), his religious intensity seems to indicate a man who would potentially use the power of government to steer our nation in a specific religious direction. I have no problem with presidents having faith and using that faith to guide their morality. But Huckabee has too often struck me as a man who wants to impose his specific beliefs on those of us of different faiths.

If McCain chooses Huckabee, he may strengthen his hand in some important states but he may lose some votes as well.

Sure, it’s not double digits for Hill, but it’s damn close.

Here’s the raw count…

Hillary Clinton – 855,147 – 54% – 37 delegates
Barack Obama – 718,294 – 46% – 31 delegates

I’m checking with CNN and MSNBC for the latest results.

Oh, and just for fun…here are the Republican numbers…

John McCain – 344,568 – 72%
Ron Paul – 75,654 – 16%
Mike Huckabe – 56,342 – 12%

I believe that the Republican contests is winner take all, so obviously everything’s going to McCain.

From Gallup:

Nomination also-rans Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney receive the most mentions when Republicans are asked whom they would most like to see as McCain’s vice presidential running mate, at 18% and 15%, respectively. It is common for candidates who come up short for the presidential nomination to be strongly considered for the vice presidential spot on the ticket, and John Edwards in 2004, George H.W. Bush in 1980, and Lyndon Johnson in 1960 are some of the former presidential candidates who accepted the vice presidential spot after losing out for the presidential nomination.

And here’s the complete list…

And so we see Condi again. I really think she could be the pick, even though that was my April Fool’s joke.

Also, interesting to see that Lieberman is so far down the list. Looks like the GOP isn’t really thinking about a bi-partisan ticket this year.

UPDATE:
Well, maybe conservatives don’t know who they want, but a new group knows who they don’t want…

Under the rubric of an obscure PAC called Government Is Not God, a coalition of longtime Romney opponents and past supporters of Mike Huckabee have created a website and are buying print ads that resurrect the former Massachusetts governor’s past abortion and gay rights stances.

Their first ad will run this weekend in Arizona, where McCain closes out his introductory tour, and others will follow in cities McCain stops along the trail.

“If Gov. Romney is on your ticket, many social conservative voters will consider their values repudiated by the Republican Party and either stay away from the polls this November or only vote down the ticket,” warns a list of 26 conservative activists to McCain in the print ad that screams “No Mitt” in bold.

Something tells me that Huckabee isn’t gonna be the guy. He just isn’t ready, as “likable” as he may be.

In response to Obama’s speech yesterday, Mike Huckabee displays the type of understanding we will all need to get past the issue of race:

As easy as it is for those of us who are white, to look back and say “That’s a terrible statement!”…I grew up in a very segregated south. And I think that you have to cut some slack — and I’m gonna be probably the only Conservative in America who’s gonna say something like this, but I’m just tellin’ you — we’ve gotta cut some slack to people who grew up being called names, being told “you have to sit in the balcony when you go to the movie. You have to go to the back door to go into the restaurant. And you can’t sit out there with everyone else. There’s a separate waiting room in the doctor’s office. Here’s where you sit on the bus…”

And you know what? Sometimes people do have a chip on their shoulder and resentment. And you have to just say, I probably would too. I probably would too. In fact, I may have had more of a chip on my shoulder had it been me.

Do note that last sentence. Because when it comes to the topic of race, it’s particularly important to remember that until we walk a mile in somebody else’s shoes we have no idea what their experience is. Would we be as strong in the face of slurs, bigotry and institutional bias?

In any event, well said Huck. He’s continuing to show us all why his voice could actually help bring unity to this country down the road, and I think that’s ultimately why I liked him to begin with. Ge offered a different kind of political tone, and while many dismiss that as just talk, I’ll keep on saying that “talk” is quite important when we’re trying to start a different kind of political discussion.

These aren’t bad people, they’re just ridiculously ill-informed. But there are a lot of similar views out there and if the Democrats think November will be a cake walk, well, take this stuff lightly at your own peril.

(h/t: C&L)

Nearly seven in 10 voters in Virginia’s Republican primary called themselves conservatives. Mike Huckabee won half of their votes, including two-thirds of those who called themselves “very conservative.” Four in 10 Virginia Republican voters were born-again evangelical Christians, and they strongly supported Huckabee over John McCain. Huckabee won the votes of two-thirds of those who said they were looking for a candidate who shared their values. McCain won the votes of two-thirds of moderates and almost half of those who called themselves “somewhat conservative.”

McCain just can’t close the deal with these voters and Huck is riding the wave.