Did you ever think he’d really go away?

Apparently he’ll be speaking at Indiana University about the results of the election.

My question: why?

I mean, does anybody really care what John Edwards’ thinks about the Democrats winning? Especially Democrats? All he’s doing is giving the right wing more cannon fodder.

One bit of good news from the article: Elizabeth is hanging in there…

She said last month that her health is “no worse” than 18 months ago, when she and her husband announced in March 2007 that her cancer had returned in an incurable form. She was first diagnosed with breast cancer in 2004, but declared cancer-free after treatment.

I’m sure I’ll cover what he says, because that’s what I do, but I wish this guy would just disappear for a while.

I don’t know if there will be a recount in either state because the totals are so close, but as I predicted…Missouri didn’t pick the winner for only the second time in over 100 years.

On the other hand, Indiana delivered for Obama and I think it was clear from very early in the evening that if McCain was having trouble with Indiana, his dream was pretty much over.

This is how the AP saw it around 2 am Eastern this morning…

WASHINGTON (AP) — Another state that hasn’t voted for a Democrat for president in quite a while has done so this time.

By a narrow margin, Barack Obama is the winner in Indiana. The state’s polls were among the first to close, but the outcome wasn’t clear until long after Obama’s victory speech.

The last time Indiana voted for a Democrat for president was when Lyndon Johnson was elected in 1964.

The only question now: has it really turned blue? I have my doubts. I think deep, deep resentment for the Republicans will be replaced with maybe not-as-deep resentment for the Democrats.

We shall see…

Via Hotline…

- Obama leading men by 2% and women by 9%

- African-American turnout to be 7% — identical to what it was in ‘04

- Obama leading Indies, who made up 23% of voters, 56-41%

And then, even bigger margins in Vigo county…

With 80 percent of the votes counted, Obama leads McCain in Vigo 57-42.

As my colleague Josh Kraushaar notes, Bush beat Kerry there 53-47.

One thing’s for sure…this one’s going late.

Steuben: Kerry 34%, Obama 42%

DeKalb: Kerry 31%, Obama 38%

Knox: Kerry 36%, Obama 54%

Marshall: Kerry 31%, Obama 50%

Right now it’s neck and neck, with both candidates grabbing around 46,000 votes with 3% reporting.

More as it develops…

And as the title telegraphs, their gambit didn’t work.

From Indiana Law Blog:

The Indiana Supreme Court just agreed, by a vote of 3-2, to decline jurisdiction over the Republicans’ appeal. This means their only recourse is to pursue an appeal through the normal means, that is, to the Indiana Court of Appeals.

It’s unlikely the COA will agree to expedite, now that the Supreme Court has declined to intervene.

Frankly, it’s a big disconcerting that the decision was this close, but thankfully the voters came out on top in the end.

From IndyStar.com:

FRANKLIN, Ind. (AP) — A Republican county election clerk distributed copies of an apparent chain letter referring to Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama as a “young, black Adolf Hitler” to two employees but later told police she intended it to be a joke.

The employees, who had voted for Obama in Indiana’s Democratic primary, discovered the letters at their desks after returning from Labor Day weekend, Deputy Sheriff Doug Cox said in a police report made public this week. One of the workers complained, and surveillance video showed Johnson County Clerk Jill Jackson placing an item one worker’s desk at 5:27 p.m. on the Friday of Labor Day weekend, Cox said.

“She admitted to being responsible for the letter, but only did it as a joke,” Cox said. Jackson told police she had intended to speak with the workers upon returning to work but forgot.

Just a joke?

Well, how many of you would consider the following even remotely funny?

The letter does not mention Obama by name but makes references to his ties to a Chicago church whose pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, adheres to black liberation theology. It is heavy with racial references, criticizing the candidate’s parentage with such comments as, “He is proud of his ‘African heritage’ (a father who got a white girl pregnant and deserted her)” and asking, “Where is the pride in his ‘White heritage?’”

The unsigned letter urges readers to send it to everyone they know.

I will say this…the fact that she hasn’t been fired is certainly comical.

Moving on…

More numbers bring more bad news for McCain.

Now, Big Ten polls the eight states where the Big Ten school are, so some of them (Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota) I’m not going to even bother showing since they’re safely blue.

Instead, I’ll focus on four McCain has been campaigning in recently.

Indiana: +10
Obama 51%
McCain 41%

Ohio: Obama + 12
Obama 53%
McCain 41%

Pennsylvania: Obama +11
Obama 52%
McCain 41%

Wisconsin: Obama +13
Obama 53%
McCain 40%

So first Quinnipiac shows Obama up 14% in Ohio, and now this poll shows him up 12%?

And up +10 in Indiana?

What’s more, compare these numbers to what Big Ten had in mid-September…

The eight states home to the 11 universities in the Big Ten conference were key battlegrounds in the 2004 election, and the results of the poll show that they are among the most competitive in the country and are likely to be pivotal in determining the election outcome.

The surveys show a tight race in all of the Big Ten states except for Obama’s home state of Illinois, where he holds a 16-point lead over McCain. The two candidates are tied in Iowa and Pennsylvania, and Obama has just a one-point lead in Ohio and Wisconsin. McCain is ahead in just one state — Indiana — where he leads by 4 percentage points.

Are we seeing a big shift in the electorate?

New Hampshire:
Obama 53%, McCain 45%
Obama 51%, McCain 43%, Barr 3%, Nader 1%

Wisconsin:
Obama 51%, McCain 46%
Obama 50%, McCain 42%, Nader 4%, Barr 1%

Ohio:
Obama 50%, McCain 47%
Obama 48%, McCain 45%, Nader 3%, Barr 2%

North Carolina:
Obama 49%, McCain 49%
Obama 49%, McCain 48%, Barr 2%

Indiana:
McCain 51%, Obama 46%
McCain 48%, Obama 46%, Barr 5%

Looks like Barr is really hurting McCain in Indiana, and with such discontent for Republicans this year, I can definitely see more people casting their ballots for the Libertarian candidate.

Some more analysis…

On the eve of the penultimate presidential debate, a new TIME/CNN poll shows John McCain still struggling in states won by George W. Bush in 2004, a sign that last week’s vice presidential debate had little effect on voter opinion. [...]

Last week, the McCain campaign reacted to a polling downturn by shuttering its operation in the state of Michigan and redistributing staff to Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Maine, where electoral votes are distributed by congressional district. In a conference call last week, Mike DuHaime, the McCain campaign’s political director, acknowledged that the national mood and Obama’s deep pockets had put previously solid Republican states like Indiana in play.

“I do think just the overall environment right now that we face is one of the worst environments for any Republican in probably 35 years,” DuHaime said. “Any time you have that, you have states move within that margin.”

The big question now, besides Ayers, Rezko and Wright…what else does McCain have to drive up Obama’s negatives? And can he even accomplish that with so much of the electorate having already made up their minds.

[Listen Online] or [Download]

[Subscribe to 2008Central.net's Presidential Election Podcast]

Feel free to email us questions/suggestions for our next podcast (you can also email an audio file of your question and we’ll include it in the podcast).

This basically means they’re tied, but Indiana is usually a very reliably red state, so this is actually quite surprising.

Some more info…

• Among men, McCain leads by 5; among women, Obama leads by 7 — a 12-point gender gap.
• Among voters age 18 to 49, Obama leads by 5; among voters 50+, McCain leads by 3.
• Obama leads by 22 points among voters under age 35.
• 16% of Republicans cross over to vote for Democrat Obama; 19% of Democrats cross over to vote for Republican McCain; Independents favor Obama by 7 points.
• Among those voters who say they have already made up their minds, the two candidates are tied; among the 25% who say they could still change their mind, Obama leads by 2.

So maybe this is why Obama sent a top staffer there and is now advertising in the Hoosier State?

More as it develops…

“Since the immediate days following the storm, I have been traveling to our nation’s capitol to advocate for policies that aid our rebuilding effort,” Nagin said in a statement released by the Obama campaign. “I know first hand, we desperately need the leadership of someone committed to changing the system in Washington that can hold us back from moving forward.”

Then Rep. Joe Donnelly from Indiana:

The superdelegate from northern Indiana said Tuesday in making his announcement he is looking for a president who can bring the nation together. Donnelly described Hillary Rodham Clinton as a tenacious fighter for the American people, particularly for working families, but said he believed Obama was the president that the country needed now.

Donnelly, who previously was uncommitted, cited Obama’s campaign for draw[ing] more than 3 million new voters and pointing the way toward a more hopeful future for the country.

Do note that Obama’s post-PA pickups are now nearly 4 to 1.

Post-Pennsylvania Delegate Pickups:
Obama – 52
Clinton – 13.5

Total Superdelegates:
Obama – 283
Clinton – 272.5

Total post-PA pickups after the jump…

Obama superdelegate pickups:
Joe Donnelly (IN), Representative – May 13, 2008
Ray Nagin (LA), DNC – May 13, 2008
Daniel Akaka (HI), Senator – May 12, 2008
Dolly Strazar (HI), DNC – May 12, 2008
R. Keith Roark (ID), Dem Chairman – May 12, 2008
Tom Allen (ME), Representative – May 12, 2008
Crystal Strait (CA), DNC – May 11, 2008
Harry Mitchell (AZ), Representative – May 10, 2008
Dave Regan (OH), Add-On – May 10, 2008
Kevin Rodriguez (VI), DNC – May 10, 2008
Carol Burke (VI), DNC – May 10, 2008
Kristi Cumming (UT), Add-On – May 10, 2008
Joe Johnson (VA), DNC – May 9, 2008
Vernon Watkins (CA), DNC – May 9, 2008
Wilber Lee Jeffcoat (SC), DNC Vice Chairman – May 9, 2008
Laurie Weahkee (NM), DNC – May 9, 2008
Mazie Hirono (HI), Representative – May 9, 2008
Ed Espinoza (CA), DNC – May 9, 2008
John Gage (MD), DNC – May 9, 2008
Peter DeFazio (OR), Representative – May 9, 2008
Donald Payne (NJ), Representative – May 9, 2008
Rick Larsen (WA), Representative – May 8, 2008
Brad Miller (NC), Representative – May 8, 2008
Jennifer McClellan (VA), DNC – May 7, 2008
Inola Henry (CA), DNC – May 7, 2008
Jerry Meek (NC), Dem Chairman – May 7, 2008
Jeanette Council (NC), DNC – May 7, 2008
Lauren Dugas Glover (MD), DNC Vice Chairman – May 5, 2008
Michael Cryor (MD), DNC Chairman – May 5, 2008
Kalyn Free (OK), DNC – May 5, 2008
Jaime Paulino (Guam), DNC & Territory Vice Chair – May 4, 2008
Parris Glendening (MD), Governor – May 3, 2008
Inez Tenenbaum (SC), DNC – May 3, 2008
Brian Colón (TX), DNC – May 3, 2008
Paul G. Kirk, Jr. (MA), DNC – May 2, 2008
John Patrick (TX), DNC – May 1, 2008
Barbara Flynn Currie (IL), DNC – May 1, 2008
Todd Stroger (IL), DNC – May 1, 2008
Richard M. Daley (IL), DNC – May 1, 2008
Joe Andrew (IN), DNC – May 1, 2008
Bruce Braley (IA), Representative – Apr 30, 2008
Lois Capps (CA), Representative – Apr 30, 2008
Baron Hill (IN), Representative – Apr 30, 2008
Ben Chandler (KY), Representative – Apr 29, 2008
Richard Machacek (IA), DNC – Apr 29, 2008
Jeff Bingaman (NM), Senator – Apr 28, 2008
Charlene Fernandez (AZ), DNC & State Vice Chair – Apr 26, 2008
David Wu (OR), Representative – Apr 24, 2008
Audra Ostergard (NE), DNC & State Vice Chair – Apr 23, 2008
Brad Henry (OK), Governor – Apr 23, 2008

Clinton superdelegate pickups:
Arthur Powell (MA), Add-On – May 10, 2008
Ciro Rodriguez (TX), Representative – May 9, 2008
Chris Carney (PA), Representative – May 9, 2008
Brad Ellsworth (IN), Representative – May 7, 2008
Heath Shuler (NC), Representative – May 7, 2008
Theresa Morelli (Dems Abroad), DNC May 5, 2008
Kathleen Kennedy Townsend (MD), Lt. Governor – May 3, 2008
Jaime A. Gonzalez Jr. (TX), DNC – May 2, 2008
Andrew Cuomo (NY), DNC – May 1, 2008
Thomas DiNapoli (NY), DNC – May 1, 2008
C. Virginia Field (NY), DNC – May 1, 2008
Carmen Arroyo (NY), DNC – May 1, 2008
John Olsen (CT), DNC – May 1, 2008
Luisette Cabanas (PR), DNC & Territory Vice Chair – Apr 30, 2008
William George (PA), DNC – Apr 30, 2008
Ike Skelton (MO), Representative, Apr 29, 2008
Mike Easley (NC), Governor – Apr 28, 2008
Kathy Sullivan (NH), Add-On – Apr 26, 2008
John Tanner (TN), Representative – Apr 23, 2008

Clinton superdelegate losses:
Kevin Rodriguez (VI), DNC – May 10, 2008
Donald Payne (NJ), Representative – May 9, 2008
Jennifer McClellan (VA), DNC – May 7, 2008
Arlene P. Bordallo (Guam), DNC & Former Territory Vice Chair- May 4, 2008
Joe Andrew (IN), DNC – May 1, 2008

She’s up by about 22,000 with 99% reporting so MSNBC is calling it.

However, there’s a lot of absentee ballots yet to count, so we’re not going to know the real totals, but it’ll be hard for Obama to make up over 22,000 votes.

Amazing night folks. See you in the morning!

Folks, she’s only ahead by 1.38%

Total Vote- 1,196,385

More soon…

The unprecedented amount of absentee and early-voting ballots is slowing the vote count at Lake County election headquarters and keeping Americans waiting for Indiana primary results.

As of 8:40 p.m. CDT, about half of 11,370 absentee and early voting ballots had been counted, said Michelle Fajman, the county’s elections supervisor. By contrast, in the 2000 presidential primary, 2,822 early and absentee votes were cast in Lake County. In the 2004 primary, 4,053 early and absentee votes were cast.

Amazing turnout in all regards.

Yay democracy!

According to his numbers, in most districts Clinton’s turnout in the city of Gary was near non-existent. One precinct saw 126 voters turn out for Obama, while only four voted for Clinton.

[Gary Mayor Rudy] Clay said the election is seeing a record turnout in the city.

“We’re used to having maybe a 22, 23 percent turnout for a primary. We’re seeing numbers as high as 85 to 95 percent,” Clay said. “The Gary people took care of business.”

Is there enough for him to close?

From NWI.com:

“We’ve got this title that Gary people don’t vote,” Gary Mayor Rudy Clay said to the crowd. “It’s going to be eliminated because Gary is going to register more people than have ever registered before.”

During Indiana’s primary, Gary will be a name on the lips of newscasters on CNN, he said.

“They are going to point at Indiana and say Hillary Clinton is leading by one point but Gary ain’t come in yet,” Clay said.

Wow, talk about a prediction!

Clinton – 584,113 – 51%
Obama – 564,323 – 49%

Keep coming back!!! This is just like Missouri!!!

Clinton – 574,643 – 52%
Obama – 536,332 – 48%

Lake County is going to start reporting in about 25 minutes.

However…

Washington Post is now reporting that the mayor of Gary, Indiana is saying that Lake County turned out overwhelming for Obama and it could turn this on its head. In fact, the mayor is making VERY bold claims. I don’t have a link yet, but I’m searching for it.

That means the other 15% is going to basically be 185,000 votes. If Obama gets 57% out of Lake County, which is what I’ve heard recently, he’d get 105,450 and she’d get 79,550. That’s a difference of 25,900 votes.

Right now she leads by 40,000 votes.

So it’s very likely she’ll squeak this out by 14,000 votes.

I guess we’ll see.

Obama – 725,161 – 56%
Clinton – 543,476 – 42%

These numbers have been fairly steady for the past hour.

By the way, Zogby predicted it would be a 14% win.

He also thought Obama would win by 2% in Indiana.

We shall see…