This is BIG news as it’ll ensure that a lot more people participate.

From Des Moines Register:

Sources from both the Iowa Democratic Party and Republican Party of Iowa say they are getting ready to jointly announce a date for the 2010 Iowa caucuses. For the first time, they’ll be held on a Saturday afternoon in January. (editor’s note: Jan. 23 at 1 p.m.) [...]

Both parties have a good track record of working together to make decisions regarding the caucuses. This one is a good example that should help secure Iowa’s first-in-the-nation status for 2012.

Still, some are worried that this will disenfranchise Jewish voters…

Paulee Lipsman, former House Democratic caucus director, who is Jewish, says she and some others called the state party to complain two years ago when she heard Saturday caucuses were being considered. “We have enough trouble with schools scheduling tests and homecoming on Jewish holidays,” she said. She notes, though, that some Jews will attend Saturday events, just like some Christians go to football games on Sunday instead of to church. “No matter when you do it, you’re disenfranchising people,” she said.

Agreed. Any day will disenfranchise folks, but Iowa isn’t exactly a state with a massive Jewish population, and I predict the amount of Jewish voters lost by having it on Saturday will be offset by the number they gain.

Now if we can only get the national election day declared a holiday…. (ahem!)

2012 is already ramping up for some folks.

From Radio Iowa:

A friend of mine in Des Moines, Iowa, got a phone call last night, testing out the names of potential 2012 GOP presidential candidates. It was an automated survey and did not indicate who the sponsor of the call might be, “but it was quite apparent it was a GOP call,” my friend reports. “…The survey started off by asking what I thought the most important issue facing America today might be, then rolled right into, ‘Who would you vote for in the 2012 Presidential primary?’ — offering choices of Huckabee, Palin, Gingrich, Jindal, and JEB BUSH.” (Her boldface type, not mine).

The call also gauged what voters thought of Obama’s job performance.

I think it’s pretty obvious that this is the work of somebody in the GOP. In fact, Jeb Bush’s people could be behind it since he’s rarely ever mentioned as a candidate and Tim Pawlenty is more visible at this point.

So that begs the question…would a guy like Jeb have a chance in a post-Dubya world?

More as it develops…

This is why I’m telling folks that the marriage between the social conservatives and the fiscal conservatives is done. Because this next generation of voters favors progressive social policy in bigger numbers than any other generation in history. And fiscal conservatives ignore this at their own peril.

A genuine surprise from the Hawkeye State today because the ruling was unanimous.

Expect more of this type of thing to happen in the next couple years and challenge Obama’s opinion that gay marriage shouldn’t be legal…

“The Iowa statute limiting civil marriage to a union between a man and a woman violates the equal protection clause of the Iowa Constitution,” the justices said in a summary of their decision.

The court rules that gay marriage would be legal in three weeks, starting April 24. [...]

The ruling is viewed as a victory for the gay rights movement in Iowa and elsewhere, and a setback for social conservatives who wanted to protect traditional families.

So what does this mean for 2012?

Well, since Iowa is the first state in the primary cycle, this puts folks like Huckabee and Palin at the head of the pack. Because you know this will be THE issue.

UPDATE:
Here’s the opinion and an excerpt…

We are firmly convinced the exclusion of gay and lesbian people from the institution of civil marriage does not substantially further any important governmental objective. The legislature has excluded a historically disfavored class of persons from a supremely important civil institution without a constitutionally sufficient justification. There is no material fact, genuinely in dispute, that can affect this determination.

We have a constitutional duty to ensure equal protection of the law. Faithfulness to that duty requires us to hold Iowa’s marriage statute, Iowa Code section 595.2, violates the Iowa Constitution. To decide otherwise would be an abdication of our constitutional duty. If gay and lesbian people must submit to different treatment without an exceedingly persuasive justification, they are deprived of the benefits of the principle of equal protection upon which the rule of law is founded.

More as it develops…

Does this guy really want to be the sacrificial lamb in 2012? Because nobody’s going to blame Obama for this economic downturn (except hardcore Friedmanites), and if Obama creates 2.5 million jobs in the next few years, he’s got 2012 in the bag.

In any event, here’s more from CNN:

(CNN) — Bobby Jindal’s in Iowa today. Louisiana’s Governor will make a stop in Cedar Rapids to tour some of the damage from devastating floods earlier this year. He’ll also participate in a fundraiser with some of the victims from the flooding. Tonight Jindal heads to Des Moines, where he’s the keynote speaker at a fundraising dinner for the Iowa Family Policy Center’s “Celebrating the Family” banquet, a major Christian conservative event.

Jindal’s considered by many in the Republican party to be a rising star and his trip to Iowa, the state that kicks off the presidential primary season, is raising speculation that he might be interested in making a bid for the Republican Presidential Nomination in 2012. But Jindal says such talk is misplaced and that he has no plans to make a run for the White House.

Bobby, seriously, stay away from this fight. Let Romney and Huckabee duke it out in 2012, and then position yourself as the Republican savior 4 years later. Trust me on this.

If he’s truly thinking about running in 2012, I think that’s a mistake since he’ll literally be 41 years old at the time. Then again, that’s what they said about Obama a couple years ago, although Obama had more legislative experience when he ran than Jindal will have in 2012.

And actually, both Huckabee and Jindal are going, but I’m talking about Jindal because I mentioned Huck a few days ago.

Des Moines Register has more…

On Nov. 22, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal will visit Cedar Rapids and West Des Moines to speak at several events. Jindal is known for having played a significant role in Louisiana’s recovery from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

Neither Huckabee nor Jindal has officially announced plans to seek the 2012 nomination, but Web sites such as Politico.com have speculated on their intentions. Some political observers say it’s just a matter of time before the two publicly acknowledge they are running for president.

“I think they’re just kind of feeling their way around, testing the waters and seeing how things go – to get acquainted with people they’ll have to get acquainted with three years from now,” said Jan van Lohuizen, a Republican consultant who handled polling for President Bush’s re-election campaign.

Others, however, say it is too soon to speculate about contenders for the GOP’s 2012 nomination for president.

“People are looking, probably, for more than there is,” said Bryan English, a spokesman for the Iowa Family Policy Center, which is sponsoring Jindal’s West Des Moines event.

By the way, I don’t think it’s any coincidence that Jindal is starting to make the rounds on the media in this post election cycle and talking about where the GOP needs to go.

Long story short, he could definitely be a new, more bi-partisan force within the party and that’s really the only place they’ll be able to go if they want to push the Dems out of power.

Sure, it’s just a book tour, but we all know what it’s really about.

From NY Times:

Mr. Huckabee’s new book could offer him a fresh platform to weigh in on the emerging debate over the Republican Party’s future. His Web site describes it as: “Huckabee’s amazing story, in his own words s — from making commercials with Chuck Norris to meeting a Michigan woman who insisted on donating her wedding ring.

But this is more than just a campaign memoir. It’s a vision for a smarter, fairer type of politics— “‘vertical politics” — as he has espoused before, that focuses on common-sense solutions for education, health care, the economy, and many other issues. It’s not about right versus left; it’s about taking America up rather than down.”

If that’s Huckabee’s message in 2012, it’ll need some tweaking. “I’ll see your “change” and raise you some “vertical politics”?” Hmm…

Perhaps, it should be “I’ll see your “change” and raise you some “common sense.”

Regardless, the themes are emerging…

79 electoral votes here for the Illinois senator.

Moving on…

The poll of polls reveals Obama holding steady.

Colorado…

CNN’s new Colorado Poll of Polls shows Obama leading McCain by 6 points 51% to 45%; The last Colorado Poll of Polls –- released Saturday –- showed Obama leading McCain by 7 points.

Florida…

An average of polls conducted in battleground Florida, shows Obama leading McCain by 4 points, 49% to 45%. Saturday’s Florida Poll of Polls also showed Obama leading McCain by 4 points.

Iowa…

In Iowa, where it all started for Sen. Obama, the Illinois senator is leading McCain by 14 points, 53% to 39%.

Minnesota…

CNN’s new Minnesota Poll of Polls shows Obama leading McCain by 12 points, 52% to 40%; The last Minnesota Poll of Polls –- released October 30 –- showed Obama leading McCain by 13 points.

New Hampshire…

In New Hampshire, Obama is leading McCain by 11 points, 53% to 42% according to the latest CNN Poll of Polls. CNN’s last New Hampshire Poll of Polls –- released November 1 –- showed Obama leading McCain by 12 points.

Pennsylvania…

CNN’s new average of polls in Pennsylvania shows the Democratic nominee leading the Republican nominee by 7 points, 51% to 44%; CNN’s last Pennsylvania Poll of Polls –- released November 1 –- showed Obama leading McCain by 8 points.

Virginia…

Finaly, in Virginia, a state that has voted Republican in every presidential race since 1968, Obama is leading McCain by 7 points, 51% to 44%.

And there we are.

I think the only question mark here is Florida. All the rest are pretty much locked up. Sure, Pennsylvania and Virginia could be closer than previously thought, but any state where Obama is polling above 50% will turn blue.

Looks like Palin mentioning ethanol subsidies in Iowa a couple days ago wasn’t a sign of her going “rogue.”

In any event, here’s more from Politico:

“On the subject of ethanol, my friends, I will open every market in the world to the best products in the world, and that’s the American agricultural farmer and worker,” said McCain at a rally at the University of Northern Iowa attended by about 2,600 people.

The remark was a shift in tone, though not in policy, from McCain, who has long been a staunch opponent of federal corn ethanol subsidies — a position that hasn’t helped him win votes in the Iowa agricultural belt.

In 2003, McCain told Fortune magazine that “ethanol is a product that would not exist if Congress didn’t create an artificial market for it. No one would be willing to buy it.” He said in he doubted ethanol would reduce fuel consumption, improve air quality or do much to increase energy independence.

This is a BIG break from his past policies, and one I don’t think he had to make. Iowa is COMPLETELY out of reach for McCain in this election cycle.

However, I disagree with Politico about it not being a policy shift. It is. Because if McCain embraces supporting ethanol, he’s in favor of subsidies. Because he was right that it’s a completely false market. So he can’t have it both ways.

Now, for anybody who knows about McCain’s opinions on ethanol subsidies, this is a BIG no no. In fact, he’s so famously against ethanol subsidies that he never even bothered running in Iowa this election cycle and instead focused on New Hampshire. And I think we’re all well aware that without subsidies, the ethanol industry would, for all intents and purposes, cease to exist as a viable fuel alternative.

In any event…here’s the clip..

I guess this begs a couple questions.

First, was this actually part of her stump speech? Because if so, that would mean somebody in the campaign wrote.

Second, if it’s not part of a stump speech and she is passively aggressively signaling to McCain that they should support it…what’s Palin really aiming at here? Because as any politician knows, you can’t win Iowa without supporting ethanol. And coming out against your running mate certainly would be a mavericky thing to do.

Is she going “rogue”?

Former Iowa Congressman Jim Leach — a Republican — endorsed Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama this morning. Leach, as you may recall, lost his bid for re-election in 2006 after three decades representing portions of eastern Iowa in congress. Leach was considered a “moderate” Republican and was a backer of campaign finance reform. Leach did not accept campaign contributions from political action committees.

Then, John Cole provides the appropriate snark considering all of this nailbiting about Obama not leading by more…

If it wasn’t enough bad news that Obama only had a 5-7 point lead in national polls instead of a blow-out, this really should set Obama supporters on their heels. I mean, only one former Republican House member from Iowa is endorsing Obama? What about all the other Republican House members from Iowa?

I think this is terrible news for Obama and really am worried about this turn of events.

As I’ve mentioned in the past, the electoral map definitely favors Obama. But this meme that suggests he should be destroying McCain is definitely a head scratcher.

The numbers above represent the “with leaners” numbers. Usually I include both in Rasmussen daily polling, but for the purposes of state polls, I’m going to just feature the “with leaners” up top. However, “without leaners” numbers still show a 5% margin 46/41 in favor of Obama.

Obama is still very close to that 50% mark, and if he can keep that up it’s very likely that the contest could go to him. Reason being is that the people who support a 3rd party candidate will most likely hover right at the 2% mark, and the Undecideds will most likely break evenly between the two candidates. And McCain would need all of the Undecideds to swing his way to even tie it up. So while Obama’s lead has shrunk to 5% from 10% in July, this will still be a tough state for McCain to turn. Tough, but not impossible.

Rasmussen has the details…

Obama has the support of 79% of the state’s Democrats, while 84% of GOP voters back McCain. Among unaffiliated voters, the Democrat has a sizable lead, 46% to 30%, roughly the same as in July. [...]

Obama continues to lead McCain among women voters 49% to 37%, although this is six points narrower than in July. For the second month in a row, the two are virtually tied among male voters, with 44% for McCain and 43% for Obama.

Economic issues are the most important concern this campaign season for 43% of Iowa voters, while less than half that number (21%) rate national security as the priority.

Fifty-nine percent (59%) say finding new sources of energy is more important than reducing the amount of energy Americans now consume, but 34% think the latter should come first.

Additionally, Pollster’s poll of polls shows that Obama’s support has dropped a bit, but he has been pretty steadily ahead of McCain by 6% for a while…

More next month…

From Des Moines Register…

Obama has 15 campaign offices open and staffed in Iowa, while McCain is still plotting where to locate about half as many.

Though Obama campaign officials declined to disclose their hiring plans, they said its safe to say their 2-to-1 edge in local headquarters is a sign Obama’s staff will outnumber McCain’s team, which could reach 20 by this fall.[...]

“It’s in the realm of possibility that McCain could pull an upset in Iowa, but it’s unlikely,” said Larry Sabato, director of University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. “Obama has had strength in Iowa from the beginning, which we saw on January 3. And McCain, Iowa’s just not his state.”

I wouldn’t put Iowa in Obama’s column just yet, but if you take a glance over at Real Clear Politics, Obama has lead McCain in Iowa in ever single poll take this election season…and that’s why he’s up by an average of 7.4%. Again, not a lock, but certainly trending blue.

So that begs the question…is he adding more staff in Iowa so they can easily travel down to neighboring Missouri closer to election time? After all, Missouri is much more of a swing state, and the more forces on the ground close to the Show Me State, the better, right?

Could be…

From NY Times…

Mr. Obama is running as a reformer who is seeking to reduce the influence of special interests. But like any other politician, he has powerful constituencies that help shape his views. And when it comes to domestic ethanol, almost all of which is made from corn, he also has advisers and prominent supporters with close ties to the industry at a time when energy policy is a point of sharp contrast between the parties and their presidential candidates. [...]

Nowadays, when Mr. Obama travels in farm country, he is sometimes accompanied by his friend Tom Daschle, the former Senate majority leader from South Dakota. Mr. Daschle now serves on the boards of three ethanol companies and works at a Washington law firm where, according to his online job description, “he spends a substantial amount of time providing strategic and policy advice to clients in renewable energy.”

Mr. Obama’s lead advisor on energy and environmental issues, Jason Grumet, came to the campaign from the National Commission on Energy Policy, a bipartisan initiative associated with Mr. Daschle and Bob Dole, the Kansas Republican who is also a former Senate majority leader and a big ethanol backer who had close ties to the agribusiness giant Archer Daniels Midland.

Yes, he seems to be in the pocket of Big Corn. Better than Big Oil, but still a lot more hazardous to our economy and environment than many realize. And while I agree that looking at all options for weening ourselves from foreign oil is probably one of the most important things the next POTUS will put on his agenda, ethanol just isn’t doing it.

Now, since Illinois is the 2nd largest corn growing state in the US, Obama’s ethanol position isn’t necessarily inconsistent with his past views, but I’m sure he has seen the evidence by now that this fuel isn’t sustainable, so we shouldn’t be throwing a ton of money at it. And if he hasn’t seen the evidence…why not?

Drawing a stark contrast in this debate is McCain, and he has the right opinion in my view…

Mr. McCain advocates eliminating the multibillion-dollar annual government subsidies that domestic ethanol has long enjoyed. As a free trade advocate, he also opposes the 54-cent-a-gallon tariff that the United States slaps on imports of ethanol made from sugar cane, which packs more of an energy punch than corn-based ethanol and is cheaper to produce.

“We made a series of mistakes by not adopting a sustainable energy policy, one of which is the subsidies for corn ethanol, which I warned in Iowa were going to destroy the market” and contribute to inflation, Mr. McCain said this month in an interview with a Brazilian newspaper, O Estado de São Paulo. “Besides, it is wrong,” he added, to tax Brazilian-made sugar cane ethanol, “which is much more efficient than corn ethanol.”

I applaud McCain for taking a tough stance in Iowa when it wasn’t necessarily to his advantage, and, again, I’m with him on this issue. There are numerous other bio-fuels and we should be looking at all of them, not just favoring one specific crop because it’s politically advantageous.

Another key swing state poll shows it up for grabs.

Here are some gender breakdowns…

Gender – Male
McCain – 56%
Obama – 39%

Gender – Female
Obama – 59%
McCain – 34%

As we can see, Obama and McCain are taking women and men by fairly large margins, but McCain has 8 more points to make up among women than Obama has among men. And I’m not exactly sure how John plans to do that, especially given the Supreme Court question mark around Roe v. Wade.

And age breaks out as such…

Age – 18 to 49
Obama – 53%
McCain – 43%

Age – 50+
McCain – 47%
Obama – 45%

Nothing surprising here, although Obama is keeping it much closer in the older age bracket than usual. Still, Iowa is where he launched his historic upset, so it’s understandable that these olders votes may be more inclined to see what he’s all about as a President.

Now, you ready for this? Here comes the biggest shocker, and it’s about race…

Race – Caucasian
Obama – 50%
McCain – 44%

Race – African American
McCain – 55%
Obama – 45%

That’s right. McCain is leading Obama among African Americans.

Now, to put this in the proper perspective, Caucasians make up 95% of the population in Iowa, while African Americans only make up 2%, but this is still an interesting anomaly when we talk about Obama having a lock on the black vote.

More as it develops…

They are…

1. Daniel Boan, South Carolina
2. Christine Brennan-Bond, South Carolina
3. Robert Groce, South Carolina
4. Susan Smith, South Carolina
5. Mike Evatt, South Carolina
6. Lauren Bilton, South Carolina
7. Machelle Crum, Iowa

This has the net effect of him winning South Carolina by another 12% (Edwards won 17.57%), which would mean he took 67% in the state to Hillary’s 26%. If Edwards 2 remaining pledged delegates switch to Obama, he would win the entire 17.57% and thus have 72.57%.

And it looks like Edwards himself is asking these folks to switch…

One Edwards delegate from Iowa, Machelle Crum, came out for Obama on Thursday morning, [...]. Crum made the decision after receiving a phone call from Edwards supporters encouraging her to make the switch.

By my count, Obama now only needs 125.5 delegates to clinch the nomination.

More as it develops…

And Clinton’s gains in Pennsylvania continue to dwindle.

First, a key endorsement from Kentucky congressman Ben Chandler…

Chandler will announce his support for Obama at a midday news conference in downtown Louisville. Chandler represents a central Kentucky district and carries one of the most famous names in Kentucky politics.

The endorsement means Obama will have the backing of both of Kentucky’s Democratic congressmen leading into the state’s May 20 presidential primary.

Next, farmer Richard Machacek, a member of the Democratic National Committee, threw his support behind Obama…

Machacek, a Buchanan County Democrat also on the party’s state central committee, said Obama’s performance at Saturday’s Democratic district conventions in Iowa tipped the balance in his favor. [...]

“I think it needs to be over, and in good conscience, I can’t fly in the face of my precinct, county and district,” Machacek told The Des Moines Register in a telephone interview. “The raw numbers coming out of the district conventions really sat me down hard.”

That puts the tally at:
Clinton: 265
Obama: 244

Only 21 left to pull even, and if that happens it’ll be huge news.

Also, according to MSNBC, the delegate totals now stand at:
Obama: 1,734
Clinton: 1,599

…which translates into a 135 delegate lead for Obama.

More as it develops…

From TPM:

The Iowa caucuses might have been over two months ago, but Barack Obama is still making gains off of them. In today’s Iowa county Democratic conventions — which those caucus delegates were elected to participate in — Obama picked up the votes of roughly half of John Edwards’ former supporters, netting him seven delegates.

Going into the June state Democratic convention, where the federal delegates will finally be selected, Obama is projected to have 23 delegates to Hillary Clinton’s 14, with eight remaining delegates still either for Edwards or uncommitted.

Updated delegate totals from AP:

• Obama: 1,610
• Clinton: 1,496

However, CNN has this:

• Obama: 1,611
• Clinton: 1,480

Both of these totals include superdelegate support. So either he’s ahead by 114 or ahead by 131.

Either way, it’s becoming harder and harder for Hillary to catch up. The last numbers I heard is that she’d have to get 63% of the remaining delegates after Mississipppi to catch up, and that would mean she’d have to get 68% to 70% of the vote in EVERY state from here on out.

More as it develops…

John Tomlin shot a lot of video in Iowa and captured some candid, goofy moments.

Man, Romney is just an awkward guy…