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It’s Rick’s big night! The Iowa faith-based contingent really turned out this caucus for the underdog, and that should make waves in the evangelical community.

Will they support a Mormon? I think that’s a tough call right now. They definitely could, but it depends on what this group decides.

Personally, I think Santorum will be up all night waiting for the returns.

Public Policy Polling is out with their final numbers and it’s a photo finish…

It looks like pretty much everybody has lost support in this except Santorum and Gingrich. And Santorum hasn’t had millions of dollars in negative ads lobbed his way.

Maybe that’s why his favorability numbers are so high…

Santorum’s net favorability of 60/30 makes him easily the most popular candidate in the field. No one else’s favorability exceeds 52%. He may also have more room to grow in the final 48 hours of the campaign than the other front runners: 14% of voters say he’s their second choice to 11% for Romney and only 8% for Paul. Santorum’s taken the lead with two key groups of Republican voters: with Tea Partiers he’s at 23% to 18% for Gingrich, 16% for Paul, 15% for Bachmann, and only 12% for Romney. And with Evangelicals he’s at 24% to 16% for Gingrich, and 15% for Paul and Romney.

A few weeks ago Gingrich was the talk of the town, but looks like he peaked too early. The only person left? Well, besides Huntsman…who doesn’t have a chance in hell. Yes, Santorum. Who is far more unelectable than Huntsman, but don’t tell the evangelicals that.

But let’s talk reality. Paul is still technically in the lead with these numbers. Does he have a shot at it? Yes, but only if non-traditional caucus-goers turn out.

For all that Paul still has a very decent chance at winning on Tuesday- it just depends on whether his unusual coalition of young voters and non-Republicans really comes out to caucus. Among actual Republican voters Paul is tied for 3rd place with Gingrich at 17%, behind Romney’s 21% and Santorum’s 19%. But with independents and Democrats who plan to vote, which we peg at 24% of the electorate, Paul leads with 30% to just 14% each for Santorum and Romney.

Newsflash for all you Paulites…remember 2008? When you thought there’d be this big surge and there wasn’t? That reminded me of 2004 when I went up to help organize for Howard Dean. Long story short…non-traditional caucus-goers don’t turn out. Especially if it’s a highly confusing system like the Iowa caucus system.

Here’s how Republicans do their caucuses in Iowa…

In the Republican caucuses, each voter officially casts his or her vote by secret ballot. Voters are presented blank sheets of paper with no candidate names on them. After listening to some campaigning for each candidate by caucus participants, they write their choices down and the Republican Party of Iowa tabulates the results at each precinct and transmits them to the media.

In 2008, some precincts used a show of hands or preprinted ballots. The non-binding results are tabulated and reported to the state party, which releases the results to the media. Delegates from the precinct caucuses go on to the county conventions, which choose delegates to the district conventions, which in turn selects delegates to the Iowa State Convention.

Thus, it is the Republican Iowa State Convention, not the precinct caucuses, which selects the ultimate delegates from Iowa to the Republican National Convention. All delegates are officially unbound from the results of the precinct caucus, although media organizations either estimate delegate numbers by estimating county convention results or simply divide them proportionally.

Got that? No? Well, don’t worry. Hardly anybody else does either.

Last, here’s a video from the Des Moines Register running down what’s going on up there…

More tomorrow!!!

Romney is still neck and neck with the Texas congressman, so it looks like it’s going to be an interesting caucus.

From Public Policy Polling:

The last week and a half has brought little change in the standings for the Iowa Republican caucus: Ron Paul continues to lead Mitt Romney by a modest margin, 24-20. Newt Gingrich is in 3rd at 13% followed by Michele Bachmann at 11%, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum at 10%, Jon Huntsman at 4%, and Buddy Roemer at 2%.

Paul’s strength in Iowa continues to depend on a coalition of voters that’s pretty unusual for a Republican in the state. Romney leads 22-20 with those who are actually Republicans, while Paul has a 39-12 advantage with the 24% who are either independents or Democrats. GOP caucus voters tend to skew old, and Romney has a 34-12 advantage with seniors. But Paul’s candidacy looks like it’s going to attract an unusual number of younger voters to the caucus this year, and with those under 45 he has a 35-11 advantage on Romney. The independent/young voter combo worked for Barack Obama in securing an unexpectedly large victory on the Democratic side in 2008 and it may be Paul’s winning equation in 2012.

But Romney has one big problem: passion.

Although Romney’s support has held steady at 20% over the last week his favorability numbers have taken a hit, something that could keep him from moving into first place over the final week. He was at +9 (49/40) but has dipped now into negative territory at -3 (44/47). Additionally Romney is the second choice of only 10% of voters, barely better than Paul’s 9%. It’s certainly still close enough that he could win, but there’s nothing within the numbers this week to suggest that he should win. One of Romney’s biggest problems continues to be his inability to hold onto his 2008 voters. Only 48% of them are still with him.

It really looks like Romney wants to win Iowa, but, if Paul wins, he might be able to dismiss it as the handiwork of indies and Dems, not the true Republican base. And since that idea has already been peppered throughout the media, it should stick. Maybe.

But if Paul does win and Romney’s strategy is to win big in New Hampshire…he may face a problem. Because Paul’s politics play well there. But Paul has those newsletter problems that he simply can’t overcome. Regardless of whether or not he knew what was in them, he profited significantly from them and that’s damning for his general election chances.

More as it develops…

Public Policy Polling is out with their latest numbers and they bode well for the perennial dark horse from Texas.

First, let’s look at the numbers compared between the last poll and this one…

So why has Newt lost traction? A few reasons…

Gingrich has now seen a big drop in his Iowa standing two weeks in a row. His share of the vote has gone from 27% to 22% to 14%. And there’s been a large drop in his personal favorability numbers as well from +31 (62/31) to +12 (52/40) to now -1 (46/47). Negative ads over the last few weeks have really chipped away at Gingrich’s image as being a strong conservative- now only 36% of voters believe that he has ‘strong principles,’ while 43% think he does not.

Who has been running ads against Gingrich? Ron Paul in particular and it looks like the strategy is working. That and Newt’s personality, which probably doesn’t play too well in Iowa.

But what about Mitt, who continues to just stick around?

Romney’s vote share is up 4 points from a week ago to 20% from it previous 16% standing. His favorability numbers have improved a little bit as well from 48/44 to 49/40. One thing Romney really has going for him is more room for growth than Paul. Among voters who say they’re not firmly committed to their current candidate choice, Romney is the second choice for 19% compared to 17% for Perry, 15% for Bachmann, and only 13% for Paul. It’s particularly worth noting that among Gingrich- who seems more likely to keep falling than turn it around- voters, he’s the second choice of 30% compared to only 11% for Paul.

Can Mitt just wait the entire field out? Looks like. But if Paul wins Iowa and can do well in the traditionally libertarian New Hampshire…this has the potential to be the most interesting GOP primary season since…well, I can’t remember when we’ve ever had an interesting GOP primary season since 1988 when Bob Dole and Pat Robertson gave the elder Bush major heartburn before he finally secured the nomination.

More as it develops…

More poll numbers show nationwide support for a Cain presidency.

From Des Moines Register:

DES MOINES, Iowa – Herman Cain and Mitt Romney top The Des Moines Register’s new Iowa Poll, with the retired pizza executive edging the former Massachusetts governor 23 percent to 22 percent in the race for the Republican presidential nomination.

Cain has surged 13 percentage points since the first Iowa Poll of the caucus cycle, conducted in late June. His rise has come despite spending little time in Iowa recently, campaigning here just once since the Aug. 13 Iowa straw poll, where he placed fifth.

So where’s the support coming from? No surprise.

Romney has stayed exactly where he was in the Register’s previous poll, but Bachmann and Cain have pretty much swapped places. Who supported Bachmann and are now calling her to get out of the race? No need to guess…you know.

From June…

Romney, the national front-runner and a familiar face in Iowa after his 2008 presidential run, attracts support from 23 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers. Bachmann, who will officially kick off her campaign in Iowa on Monday, nearly matches him, with 22 percent.

“She’s up there as a real competitor and a real contender,” said Republican pollster Randy Gutermuth, who is unaffiliated with any of the presidential candidates. “This would indicate that she’s going to be a real player in Iowa.”

Former Godfather’s CEO Herman Cain, who has never held public office but has found a following among tea party supporters, comes in third, with 10 percent.

Still, it’s way too early to know whether or not these folks won’t go for Romney when it comes to caucus for a candidate or cast their ballot. My guess is many will because they want to beat Obama and Romney is really the only one who can make a stand. But the parallels between 2004 when Dems were completely uninspired by a Massachusetts politician and this year when Repubs seem to be completely uninspired by a Massachusetts politician are pretty apparent.

And with the GDP growing and the stock market having its best month in 25 years…it’s going to be tougher to hit Obama with the economy if positive signs keep popping up.

Potentially tough road ahead for the GOP.

At least that’s what Haley Barbour is saying about her appearance at Rep. Steve King’s conference…and after watching this video I tend to agree. She really knows how to rile up a conservative crowd. Lots of good old fashiony call and response speechifying.

So big deal, right?

Well, when it comes to the caucuses in Iowa, let’s remember that this is the state that voted for Pat Robertson over George Bush in ’88.

More from Politico:

Talking loudly and waving her hands, a pumped Bachmann used a slide presentation of various numbers — the national debt, the cost of a gallon of gas two years ago the day before Obama took office, the corporate tax rate — to make her points and pull the crowd in.

Suggesting that Iowa caucus voters had the power to halt Obama, Bachmann wrapped up her speech by asking, “Are you in? Are you in for 2012?”

“I agree with you!” she said as the crowd cheered, and added, “I’m in!”

Sarah who?

This is BIG news as it’ll ensure that a lot more people participate.

From Des Moines Register:

Sources from both the Iowa Democratic Party and Republican Party of Iowa say they are getting ready to jointly announce a date for the 2010 Iowa caucuses. For the first time, they’ll be held on a Saturday afternoon in January. (editor’s note: Jan. 23 at 1 p.m.) [...]

Both parties have a good track record of working together to make decisions regarding the caucuses. This one is a good example that should help secure Iowa’s first-in-the-nation status for 2012.

Still, some are worried that this will disenfranchise Jewish voters…

Paulee Lipsman, former House Democratic caucus director, who is Jewish, says she and some others called the state party to complain two years ago when she heard Saturday caucuses were being considered. “We have enough trouble with schools scheduling tests and homecoming on Jewish holidays,” she said. She notes, though, that some Jews will attend Saturday events, just like some Christians go to football games on Sunday instead of to church. “No matter when you do it, you’re disenfranchising people,” she said.

Agreed. Any day will disenfranchise folks, but Iowa isn’t exactly a state with a massive Jewish population, and I predict the amount of Jewish voters lost by having it on Saturday will be offset by the number they gain.

Now if we can only get the national election day declared a holiday…. (ahem!)

2012 is already ramping up for some folks.

From Radio Iowa:

A friend of mine in Des Moines, Iowa, got a phone call last night, testing out the names of potential 2012 GOP presidential candidates. It was an automated survey and did not indicate who the sponsor of the call might be, “but it was quite apparent it was a GOP call,” my friend reports. “…The survey started off by asking what I thought the most important issue facing America today might be, then rolled right into, ‘Who would you vote for in the 2012 Presidential primary?’ — offering choices of Huckabee, Palin, Gingrich, Jindal, and JEB BUSH.” (Her boldface type, not mine).

The call also gauged what voters thought of Obama’s job performance.

I think it’s pretty obvious that this is the work of somebody in the GOP. In fact, Jeb Bush’s people could be behind it since he’s rarely ever mentioned as a candidate and Tim Pawlenty is more visible at this point.

So that begs the question…would a guy like Jeb have a chance in a post-Dubya world?

More as it develops…

A speech from the Senate Majority Leader in Iowa sums it up pretty succinctly…

This is why I’m telling folks that the marriage between the social conservatives and the fiscal conservatives is done. Because this next generation of voters favors progressive social policy in bigger numbers than any other generation in history. And fiscal conservatives ignore this at their own peril.

A genuine surprise from the Hawkeye State today because the ruling was unanimous.

Expect more of this type of thing to happen in the next couple years and challenge Obama’s opinion that gay marriage shouldn’t be legal…

“The Iowa statute limiting civil marriage to a union between a man and a woman violates the equal protection clause of the Iowa Constitution,” the justices said in a summary of their decision.

The court rules that gay marriage would be legal in three weeks, starting April 24. [...]

The ruling is viewed as a victory for the gay rights movement in Iowa and elsewhere, and a setback for social conservatives who wanted to protect traditional families.

So what does this mean for 2012?

Well, since Iowa is the first state in the primary cycle, this puts folks like Huckabee and Palin at the head of the pack. Because you know this will be THE issue.

UPDATE:
Here’s the opinion and an excerpt…

We are firmly convinced the exclusion of gay and lesbian people from the institution of civil marriage does not substantially further any important governmental objective. The legislature has excluded a historically disfavored class of persons from a supremely important civil institution without a constitutionally sufficient justification. There is no material fact, genuinely in dispute, that can affect this determination.

We have a constitutional duty to ensure equal protection of the law. Faithfulness to that duty requires us to hold Iowa’s marriage statute, Iowa Code section 595.2, violates the Iowa Constitution. To decide otherwise would be an abdication of our constitutional duty. If gay and lesbian people must submit to different treatment without an exceedingly persuasive justification, they are deprived of the benefits of the principle of equal protection upon which the rule of law is founded.

More as it develops…

Does this guy really want to be the sacrificial lamb in 2012? Because nobody’s going to blame Obama for this economic downturn (except hardcore Friedmanites), and if Obama creates 2.5 million jobs in the next few years, he’s got 2012 in the bag.

In any event, here’s more from CNN:

(CNN) — Bobby Jindal’s in Iowa today. Louisiana’s Governor will make a stop in Cedar Rapids to tour some of the damage from devastating floods earlier this year. He’ll also participate in a fundraiser with some of the victims from the flooding. Tonight Jindal heads to Des Moines, where he’s the keynote speaker at a fundraising dinner for the Iowa Family Policy Center’s “Celebrating the Family” banquet, a major Christian conservative event.

Jindal’s considered by many in the Republican party to be a rising star and his trip to Iowa, the state that kicks off the presidential primary season, is raising speculation that he might be interested in making a bid for the Republican Presidential Nomination in 2012. But Jindal says such talk is misplaced and that he has no plans to make a run for the White House.

Bobby, seriously, stay away from this fight. Let Romney and Huckabee duke it out in 2012, and then position yourself as the Republican savior 4 years later. Trust me on this.

If he’s truly thinking about running in 2012, I think that’s a mistake since he’ll literally be 41 years old at the time. Then again, that’s what they said about Obama a couple years ago, although Obama had more legislative experience when he ran than Jindal will have in 2012.

And actually, both Huckabee and Jindal are going, but I’m talking about Jindal because I mentioned Huck a few days ago.

Des Moines Register has more…

On Nov. 22, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal will visit Cedar Rapids and West Des Moines to speak at several events. Jindal is known for having played a significant role in Louisiana’s recovery from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

Neither Huckabee nor Jindal has officially announced plans to seek the 2012 nomination, but Web sites such as Politico.com have speculated on their intentions. Some political observers say it’s just a matter of time before the two publicly acknowledge they are running for president.

“I think they’re just kind of feeling their way around, testing the waters and seeing how things go – to get acquainted with people they’ll have to get acquainted with three years from now,” said Jan van Lohuizen, a Republican consultant who handled polling for President Bush’s re-election campaign.

Others, however, say it is too soon to speculate about contenders for the GOP’s 2012 nomination for president.

“People are looking, probably, for more than there is,” said Bryan English, a spokesman for the Iowa Family Policy Center, which is sponsoring Jindal’s West Des Moines event.

By the way, I don’t think it’s any coincidence that Jindal is starting to make the rounds on the media in this post election cycle and talking about where the GOP needs to go.

Long story short, he could definitely be a new, more bi-partisan force within the party and that’s really the only place they’ll be able to go if they want to push the Dems out of power.

Sure, it’s just a book tour, but we all know what it’s really about.

From NY Times:

Mr. Huckabee’s new book could offer him a fresh platform to weigh in on the emerging debate over the Republican Party’s future. His Web site describes it as: “Huckabee’s amazing story, in his own words s — from making commercials with Chuck Norris to meeting a Michigan woman who insisted on donating her wedding ring.

But this is more than just a campaign memoir. It’s a vision for a smarter, fairer type of politics— “‘vertical politics” — as he has espoused before, that focuses on common-sense solutions for education, health care, the economy, and many other issues. It’s not about right versus left; it’s about taking America up rather than down.”

If that’s Huckabee’s message in 2012, it’ll need some tweaking. “I’ll see your “change” and raise you some “vertical politics”?” Hmm…

Perhaps, it should be “I’ll see your “change” and raise you some “common sense.”

Regardless, the themes are emerging…

79 electoral votes here for the Illinois senator.

Moving on…

The poll of polls reveals Obama holding steady.

Colorado…

CNN’s new Colorado Poll of Polls shows Obama leading McCain by 6 points 51% to 45%; The last Colorado Poll of Polls –- released Saturday –- showed Obama leading McCain by 7 points.

Florida…

An average of polls conducted in battleground Florida, shows Obama leading McCain by 4 points, 49% to 45%. Saturday’s Florida Poll of Polls also showed Obama leading McCain by 4 points.

Iowa…

In Iowa, where it all started for Sen. Obama, the Illinois senator is leading McCain by 14 points, 53% to 39%.

Minnesota…

CNN’s new Minnesota Poll of Polls shows Obama leading McCain by 12 points, 52% to 40%; The last Minnesota Poll of Polls –- released October 30 –- showed Obama leading McCain by 13 points.

New Hampshire…

In New Hampshire, Obama is leading McCain by 11 points, 53% to 42% according to the latest CNN Poll of Polls. CNN’s last New Hampshire Poll of Polls –- released November 1 –- showed Obama leading McCain by 12 points.

Pennsylvania…

CNN’s new average of polls in Pennsylvania shows the Democratic nominee leading the Republican nominee by 7 points, 51% to 44%; CNN’s last Pennsylvania Poll of Polls –- released November 1 –- showed Obama leading McCain by 8 points.

Virginia…

Finaly, in Virginia, a state that has voted Republican in every presidential race since 1968, Obama is leading McCain by 7 points, 51% to 44%.

And there we are.

I think the only question mark here is Florida. All the rest are pretty much locked up. Sure, Pennsylvania and Virginia could be closer than previously thought, but any state where Obama is polling above 50% will turn blue.

Looks like Palin mentioning ethanol subsidies in Iowa a couple days ago wasn’t a sign of her going “rogue.”

In any event, here’s more from Politico:

“On the subject of ethanol, my friends, I will open every market in the world to the best products in the world, and that’s the American agricultural farmer and worker,” said McCain at a rally at the University of Northern Iowa attended by about 2,600 people.

The remark was a shift in tone, though not in policy, from McCain, who has long been a staunch opponent of federal corn ethanol subsidies — a position that hasn’t helped him win votes in the Iowa agricultural belt.

In 2003, McCain told Fortune magazine that “ethanol is a product that would not exist if Congress didn’t create an artificial market for it. No one would be willing to buy it.” He said in he doubted ethanol would reduce fuel consumption, improve air quality or do much to increase energy independence.

This is a BIG break from his past policies, and one I don’t think he had to make. Iowa is COMPLETELY out of reach for McCain in this election cycle.

However, I disagree with Politico about it not being a policy shift. It is. Because if McCain embraces supporting ethanol, he’s in favor of subsidies. Because he was right that it’s a completely false market. So he can’t have it both ways.

In Iowa today she said she supported ethanol.

Now, for anybody who knows about McCain’s opinions on ethanol subsidies, this is a BIG no no. In fact, he’s so famously against ethanol subsidies that he never even bothered running in Iowa this election cycle and instead focused on New Hampshire. And I think we’re all well aware that without subsidies, the ethanol industry would, for all intents and purposes, cease to exist as a viable fuel alternative.

In any event…here’s the clip..

I guess this begs a couple questions.

First, was this actually part of her stump speech? Because if so, that would mean somebody in the campaign wrote.

Second, if it’s not part of a stump speech and she is passively aggressively signaling to McCain that they should support it…what’s Palin really aiming at here? Because as any politician knows, you can’t win Iowa without supporting ethanol. And coming out against your running mate certainly would be a mavericky thing to do.

Is she going “rogue”?

First, the story of a man who has never endorsed a Democrat…

Former Iowa Congressman Jim Leach — a Republican — endorsed Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama this morning. Leach, as you may recall, lost his bid for re-election in 2006 after three decades representing portions of eastern Iowa in congress. Leach was considered a “moderate” Republican and was a backer of campaign finance reform. Leach did not accept campaign contributions from political action committees.

Then, John Cole provides the appropriate snark considering all of this nailbiting about Obama not leading by more…

If it wasn’t enough bad news that Obama only had a 5-7 point lead in national polls instead of a blow-out, this really should set Obama supporters on their heels. I mean, only one former Republican House member from Iowa is endorsing Obama? What about all the other Republican House members from Iowa?

I think this is terrible news for Obama and really am worried about this turn of events.

As I’ve mentioned in the past, the electoral map definitely favors Obama. But this meme that suggests he should be destroying McCain is definitely a head scratcher.

Obama – 49%
McCain – 44%
3rd Party – 2%
Undc’d – 5%

The numbers above represent the “with leaners” numbers. Usually I include both in Rasmussen daily polling, but for the purposes of state polls, I’m going to just feature the “with leaners” up top. However, “without leaners” numbers still show a 5% margin 46/41 in favor of Obama.

Obama is still very close to that 50% mark, and if he can keep that up it’s very likely that the contest could go to him. Reason being is that the people who support a 3rd party candidate will most likely hover right at the 2% mark, and the Undecideds will most likely break evenly between the two candidates. And McCain would need all of the Undecideds to swing his way to even tie it up. So while Obama’s lead has shrunk to 5% from 10% in July, this will still be a tough state for McCain to turn. Tough, but not impossible.

Rasmussen has the details…

Obama has the support of 79% of the state’s Democrats, while 84% of GOP voters back McCain. Among unaffiliated voters, the Democrat has a sizable lead, 46% to 30%, roughly the same as in July. [...]

Obama continues to lead McCain among women voters 49% to 37%, although this is six points narrower than in July. For the second month in a row, the two are virtually tied among male voters, with 44% for McCain and 43% for Obama.

Economic issues are the most important concern this campaign season for 43% of Iowa voters, while less than half that number (21%) rate national security as the priority.

Fifty-nine percent (59%) say finding new sources of energy is more important than reducing the amount of energy Americans now consume, but 34% think the latter should come first.

Additionally, Pollster’s poll of polls shows that Obama’s support has dropped a bit, but he has been pretty steadily ahead of McCain by 6% for a while…

More next month…

I reported about his big push in Missouri, and now it appears as if he’s adding staff in the Hawkeye State too…which is a curious moves since Iowa has been leaning blue this entire election season.

From Des Moines Register…

Obama has 15 campaign offices open and staffed in Iowa, while McCain is still plotting where to locate about half as many.

Though Obama campaign officials declined to disclose their hiring plans, they said its safe to say their 2-to-1 edge in local headquarters is a sign Obama’s staff will outnumber McCain’s team, which could reach 20 by this fall.[...]

“It’s in the realm of possibility that McCain could pull an upset in Iowa, but it’s unlikely,” said Larry Sabato, director of University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. “Obama has had strength in Iowa from the beginning, which we saw on January 3. And McCain, Iowa’s just not his state.”

I wouldn’t put Iowa in Obama’s column just yet, but if you take a glance over at Real Clear Politics, Obama has lead McCain in Iowa in ever single poll take this election season…and that’s why he’s up by an average of 7.4%. Again, not a lock, but certainly trending blue.

So that begs the question…is he adding more staff in Iowa so they can easily travel down to neighboring Missouri closer to election time? After all, Missouri is much more of a swing state, and the more forces on the ground close to the Show Me State, the better, right?

Could be…