NY Times link…

There’s a difference between sensationalism and lying…and the above is a lie. The US has known that Iran had a second “secret” nuclear plant since at least 2002-2003.

Here’s more from The Policy Page:

The truth is that Iran only decided to reveal the existence of the uranium enrichment operation to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) when it discovered that at least three countries had already known about the plant for a number of years.

Indeed, the United States not only knew about the facility, our intelligence had already learned that the plant was too small to be used to produce nuclear energy (Iran’s professed purpose for their nuclear program) and would likely only have value for producing nuclear weapons – one to two bombs per year. American intelligence also knew that the plant was about three months from being completed to the point where they could begin operating centrifuges inside the location.

But hey, never let the truth get in the way of an opportunity to bash Obama. That would be bad for business.

Moving on…

About a month ago, when most of the unrest in Iran was happening, I wrote about the fact that Nokia Siemens seemed to be helping the Iranian government track down protesters.

Well, it looks like the Iranian people are doing something about it and protesting with their wallets. Perhaps you should too?

Not so fast…

More at True/Slant.

(h/t: Daily Dish)

Because while today’s protests in memory of the 10th anniversary of the violence at Tehran University drew a lot of coverage from the Western media, it seems as if it didn’t draw very many Iranians.

More at True/Slant.

This is an incredibly significant step because it paves the way for an actual revolution.

From Times Online:

Iran’s biggest group of clerics has declared President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s re-election to be illegitimate and condemned the subsequent crackdown.

The statement by the Association of Researchers and Teachers of Qom is an act of defiance against the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has made clear he will tolerate no further challenges to Mr Ahmadinejad’s “victory” over Mir Hossein Mousavi.

“It’s a clerical mutiny,” said one Iranian analyst. “This is the first time ever you have all these big clerics openly challenging the leader’s decision.” Another, in Tehran, said: “We are seeing the birth of a new political front.”

This has a few practical effects.

1. It puts the Supreme Leader in a nearly indefensible positions and calls into question his authority.
2. These clerics can now claim the moral high ground and possibly unseat the Supreme Leader
3. It’s unlikely that Mousavi will be arrested at this point, even though Khamenei has called for it.

Also, let’s not forget that even though the protests were quashed last week, folks will be coming out in about 20 days to mourn the deaths of the protesters who died during the first round. And this could lead to more deaths, which will lead to more protests, etc. And that’s how the revolution in 1979 happened, so there’s a possibility it could happen again.

More as it develops…

Curious to learn more about Iran? Good.

Recently, I was sent 50 links to a bunch of great lectures on Iran, so I’ll share a few here and then send you over to True/Slant for more.

1. Islam and Modern Science:
   

   “Many people feel that that in fact there is no such thing as the Islamic problem of science. They say science is science, whatever it happens to be, and Islam has always encouraged knowledge, al-ilm in Arabic, and therefore we should encourage science and what’s the problem? -there’s no problem. But the problem is there because ever since children began to learn Lavoiser’s Law that water is composed of oxygen and hydrogen, in many Islamic countries they came home that evening and stopped saying their prayers. There is no country in the Islamic World which has not been witness in one way or another, to the impact, in fact, of the study of Western Science upon the ideological system of its youth.”

2. A Perspective on Iran’s Post-Revolution Political Economy:
   

   “The bleakest spot on the Islamic Republic’s 21-year performance record, and a constant threat to its survival, has been the economy. Downgraded by the regime’s founding father as unworthy of revolutionary pursuit, and described in the 1979 Constitution as “not an end in itself, but a means intended only to contribute to the attainment of the ultimate goal,” namely, “a movement toward God,” the post-revolution Iranian economy has remained the regime’s Achilles’ heel. Striving in vain to find an “Islamic model” which could put an end to what the revolutionaries called “crass materialism” and “consumerism,” the national economy has been managed in an ad hoc, improvised, and inconsistent manner. An unstable mixture of capitalism, populism and pragmatism with some ornamental Islamic topping has served as its anchor. As a result, the economy has moved from one crisis to another in an almost uninterrupted course.”

3. The Rise of “The Axis of Oil”—Big Trouble for the United States:
   

   “Linda Stuntz, who participated in a Council of Foreign Relations report last fall on “National Security Consequences of U.S. Oil Dependency,” stunned the Senators when she said that there was consensus among the report’s authors that talking about “energy independence” for the United States was chasing an impossible dream. Stuntz said that it was not clear whether the U.S. could achieve energy independence even with the most “draconian” government interventions. Dr. Flynt Leverett from the New America Foundation echoed Stuntz’s analysis: “…there is no economically plausible scenario for a strategically meaningful reduction in the dependence of the United States and its allies on imported hydrocarbons during the next quarter century.”

If you want to read, watch, or listen to more, swing by True/Slant.

In the meantime, the following video shows a brilliant, silent way for everybody to get involved in the protests.

How long before we hear that the Iranian government outlaws helium?

More as it develops…

What she’s describing apparently all happened in Baharestan Square today.

Some more details of what went on there via ThreatsWatch.org (spelling errors b/c an Iranian was liveblogging):

• More than 10.000 Bassij Milittias get position in Central Tehran, including Baharestan Sq.
• Army Helycopters flying over Baharestan and Vali Asr Sq.
• The streets, squares and around BAHARESTAN (Approx. South-eastern of Tehran) is swarming with military forces, civilian forces, the security motorists
• The croud have moved to the south of baharestan, the situation is bad, the shooting has started
• In Baharestan Sq. in the Police shooting, A girl is shot and the police is not allowing to let them help
• In Baharestan we saw militia with axe choping people like meat – blood everywhere – like butcher

In other news, the White House has rescinded invites to Iranian diplomats for 4th of July celebrations overseas, as well they should.

But now comes the hard part…how does the world community speak with one voice on this and what are the repercussions?

More as it develops….

TEHRAN, Iran (CNN) — Security forces wielding clubs and firing weapons beat back demonstrators who flocked to a Tehran square Wednesday to continue protests, with one witness saying security forces beat people like “animals.”At least two trusted sources described wild and violent conditions at a part of Tehran where protesters had planned to demonstrate.

“They were waiting for us,” the source said. “They all have guns and riot uniforms. It was like a mouse trap.”

“I see many people with broken arms, legs, heads — blood everywhere — pepper gas like war,” the source said.

Around “500 thugs” with clubs came out of a mosque and attacked people in the square, another source said.

The security forces were “”beating women madly” and “killing people like hell,” the source said.

“They beat up a woman so bad she was all bloody,” the source said in a description that underscores the growing and central role of women in the uprising.

Which has me asking myself: At what point does somebody else get involved, if at all? I consider myself uber-conservative when it comes to foreign policy. If it doesn’t directly affect the U.S., then we should not be involved. In other words, unless Iran (or Iraq, or North Korea, et al.) becomes an overt threat to our nation, we should let them sort out their business on their own.

But the humanitarian in me is pissed off (for lack of better terminology) at the Iranian government for acting as they are.

[cross-posted at ThePajamaPundit.com]

It really is disappointing to see McCain and Graham behave like this, especially when they haven’t filled in the blanks as to what Obama should say and why that would be more effective than the current course.

And, again, what’s the end game to tough talk? I’ll tell you what…more dead Iranian protesters. As the President mentioned earlier in the press conference, the Iranian leadership is already trying to trick their supporters into believing that we’re fomenting revolution by mistranslating things he has said and reporting that the CIA is behind this uprising.

As is the case with most foreign policy calls Republican lawmakers have made in the last 8 years, I genuinely have no clue as to how they’re arriving at these decisions. And I think Americans are equally perplexed and that’s one of the reasons McCain lost by 9 million votes last year.

Moving on…

As I’ve said before, I think he’s striking the right balance between condemning the regime’s actions against their own citizens, while not getting the US involved in what’s already an incredibly messy struggle for power.

Why is this the right strategy?

Because Obama has to hedge his bets on Iran…and that means not trying to undermine the current regime which has a better than even chance of remaining in power. If he comes out in support of Mousavi and the revolution doesn’t start, well, we’ve just wasted one of our best chances at solving the nuclear problem in that region. If Mousavi does manage to grab power, he’ll have done it with the Iranian people and they’ll collectively want to put a stake in the ground right off the bat to move Iran in a different direction.

And while many on the right wing are claiming this makes us look weak, what’s their strategy? More talk about spreading freedom? And that leads to where exactly? Declaring war against Iran, wiping out the mullahs and inserting Mousavi as the President?

In any event, here’s the statement via Politico:

Today, I want to start by addressing three issues, and then I’ll take your questions.

First, I’d like to say a few words about the situation in Iran. The United States and the international community have been appalled and outraged by the threats, beatings, and imprisonments of the last few days. I strongly condemn these unjust actions, and I join with the American people in mourning each and every innocent life that is lost.

I have made it clear that the United States respects the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and is not at all interfering in Iran’s affairs. But we must also bear witness to the courage and dignity of the Iranian people, and to a remarkable opening within Iranian society. And we deplore violence against innocent civilians anywhere that it takes place.

The Iranian people are trying to have a debate about their future. Some in the Iranian government are trying to avoid that debate by accusing the United States and others outside of Iran of instigating protests over the elections. These accusations are patently false and absurd. They are an obvious attempt to distract people from what is truly taking place within Iran’s borders. This tired strategy of using old tensions to scapegoat other countries won’t work anymore in Iran. This is not about the United States and the West; this is about the people of Iran, and the future that they – and only they – will choose.

The Iranian people can speak for themselves. That is precisely what has happened these last few days. In 2009, no iron fist is strong enough to shut off the world from bearing witness to the peaceful pursuit of justice. Despite the Iranian government’s efforts to expel journalists and isolate itself, powerful images and poignant words have made their way to us through cell phones and computers, and so we have watched what the Iranian people are doing.

This is what we have witnessed. We have seen the timeless dignity of tens of thousands Iranians marching in silence. We have seen people of all ages risk everything to insist that their votes are counted and their voices heard. Above all, we have seen courageous women stand up to brutality and threats, and we have experienced the searing image of a woman bleeding to death on the streets. While this loss is raw and painful, we also know this: those who stand up for justice are always on the right side of history.

As I said in Cairo, suppressing ideas never succeeds in making them go away. The Iranian people have a universal right to assembly and free speech. If the Iranian government seeks the respect of the international community, it must respect those rights, and heed the will of its own people. It must govern through consent, not coercion. That is what Iran’s own people are calling for, and the Iranian people will ultimately judge the actions of their own government.

Thoughts?

This is even after election officials admitted that more votes came out of 50 cities than there were voters. Shameful stuff, but not much we can do at this point besides sit back and watch it all unfold.

From BBC:

Iran’s legislative body, the Guardian Council, has said there were no major polling irregularities in the 12 June election and ruled out an annulment.

Opposition supporters called for the vote to be set aside and the elections re-run amid claims of vote tampering. [...]

Guardian Council spokesman Abbas Ali Kadkhoda’i said there was “no major fraud or breach in the election”.

Meanwhile, opposition candidate Mehdi Karoubi urged Iranians to mourn for dead protesters on Thursday.

That last bit is important because now it looks like there are only two things that could change Ahmadinejad’s win.

The first is revolution, and if the protesters keep showing up and the Iranian government keeps cracking down, people will die. Which, in turn, will make more people show up to mourn them and the cycle begins all over again.

The second is foreign interventionism, which is highly unlikely at this point given that there may be relatively little difference between Ahmadinejad and Mousavi if the mullahs are still running things. Also, who would lead that charge? The US? While we’re still highly committed to Iraq and upping our forces in Afghanistan? Not likely.

So, as with all revolutions, it’s up to the Iranian people to determine their own fate. As a country we can condemn the killings and encourage basic fairness, but the moment we begin to vocally foment revolution, we start to play an incredibly complicated game that has gotten this country into trouble time and time and time again.

More as it develops…

As I stated earlier today, the government is making a big mistake by starting to kill people. Because that’s what lead to the last Iranian revolution and it’ll only embolden protesters to get more militant quicker.

More as it develops…

Hey all,

Just found out about this blog and it’s disturbing. Basically, Iranian authorities are using Blogger blogs to ID protestors so they can arrest them.

Here’s how you can help:

• Visit the blog and at the very top there should be a button that says “Flag Blog.” Click that.
• This will send you to a page that features a bunch of different selections to choose from. Choose “Hate Speech” and then click “Continue.”
• Google will then ask if you really mean this and click that you want to “Continue.”
• If enough of us do this, the blog will be taken down automatically once it hits a certain threshold of complaints.

This is just one small way you can do your part and help out the folks in Iran who are fighting for their freedom. And if you’re on Twitter, PLEASE tweet about this and encourage your followers to RT it with this message: HELP! Iran using Blogger blogs to ID protesters 4 arrest. Please flag this blog as “Hate Speech.” http://tr.im/pnpa (pls RT!)

More as it develops…

UPDATE:
The blog has been removed!

“Today you are the media, it is your duty to report and keep the hope alive.”
- A recent Facebook status update by Mir Hossein Mousavi

Over the weekend, I touched on the significance social media is playing in this revolution, and Mashable has more details…

The status update, posted in Farsi and translated both in the Facebook comments and by CNN, reflects a radical shift in the way the media reports current events, with citizens themselves becoming the most prolific source of information on what’s happening in Iran.

The so-called “Twitter revolution” is also proving itself to be far more than that. [...] YouTube has also become a source of raw video from the ground, and Mousavi’s latest long-form statement wasn’t communicated as a release to the press: rather it was posted as a note on the candidate’s Facebook page today.

The Facebook post is a direct response to claims by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, that Ahmadinejad received nearly double the number of votes Mousavi garnered.

More as it develops…

This is pretty astonishing.

Apparently the number of votes exceeded the number of voters in over 50 cities, for a discrepancy of about 3 million votes.

But yeah…they don’t care:

The discrepancies, the most sweeping acknowledged so far by the authorities, could affect some three million ballots of what the government says was an 85 percent turnout numbering 40 million voters.

But the authorities insisted that the discrepancies did not violate Iranian law. The Guardian Council, charged with certifying the election, said it was not clear whether they would decisively change the result.

Haha, gotta love that. “Umm, yeah, we gamed it, but that’s not against the law because we can change anything whenever we want. So deal with it.”

What’s more, the Revolutionary Guard looks like they’re going to seriously crack down today, if they haven’t already…

A Revolutionary Guards statement Monday told protesters who took to the streets in a week of demonstrations to “be prepared for a resolution and revolutionary confrontation with the Guards, Basij and other security forces and disciplinary forces” if they continued their protests, news reports said.

The Basij is a militia accused by the protesters of brutally repressing demonstrations that culminated in a day of bloodshed on Saturday. It was not immediately clear if the demonstrators would heed the Guards’ warning.

But I think the government is making a pretty seriously tactical mistake here. Because the more people they kill, they more protestors will be compelled by Islamic traditions to go out into the streets to mourn them.

Here’s why (from Time):

Shiite Muslims mourn their dead on the third, seventh and 40th days after a death, and these commemorations are a pivotal part of Iran’s rich history. During the revolution, the pattern of confrontations between the shah’s security forces and the revolutionaries often played out in 40-day cycles. (See pictures of terror in the streets of Tehran.)

The first clashes in January 1978 produced two deaths that were then commemorated on the 40th day in mass gatherings, which in turn produced new confrontations with security forces — and new deaths. Those deaths then generated another 40-day period of mourning, new clashes, and further deaths. The cycle continued throughout most of the year until the shah’s ouster in January 1979.

More as it develops…

Now, with these immediate, uncontrolled communication channels available (Twitter, YouTube, Facebook), citizens finally have the ability to share what’s really going on without the media filter.

Iranian leaders didn’t anticipate this, but other repressive regimes will. So we have to be on the lookout for when these channels get shut down or attempts are made to co-opt them by governments bent on spreading misinformation.

And yes, there’s a lot of noise, and that means we have to be vigilant about what we choose to to share with others. Because nothing will undermine these channels more than false info being spread. So you have a responsibility too to be a good reader and a good sharer.

But, obviously, there’s also a hell of a lot of signal too. And these channels will only get more sophisticated, users will only get more savvy and news will only get more instantaneous as things like streaming video becomes pervasive on mobile phones, computers, et al.

One thing’s for sure…as cliché as the following may sound, we’re witnessing history in the making and nothing will ever be the same again.

(Image: Sully)