Why? Because there’s no way they’ll match history… With the final national polls settling around Obama +7, I realized that I lacked a good sense of historical context for that number. Turns out it’s about the margin of George H.W. Bush’s 1988 win against Michael Dukakis: 53.4% to 45.6%. That’s certainly impressive. It doesn’t, however, [...]

This from FiveThirtyEight… If there is one shocker on election night in the presidential race, cast your eyes to Georgia. 1,994,990 people voted early in Georgia. 3,301,875 total voted in Georgia’s presidential race in 2004. We may be headed for something completely unexpected tonight.

If the early morning is any indication, it’s looking like turnout will be very heavy in Northern Virginia: Lines formed hours early at polling places around the region this morning, as voters braced for unprecedented turnout and went out of their way to make sure they could cast their ballots. Frank Douglas, a 67-year-old Woodbridge [...]

Not only that, it was over about a month ago… The presidential race has been a foregone conclusion since shortly after the nation’s financial crisis exploded in the news a little more than a month ago. The virtual elimination of national security as a top issue, combined with Obama’s coolness in the face of the [...]

This is another place Bush won in 2004. What’s more, no Democrat has ever won here. And Obama’s margin is the most since they started. 1996 Dole: 13 Clinton: 12 Perot: 4 Browne: 2 2000 Bush: 17 Gore: 13 2004 Bush: 16 Kerry: 14 Nader: 1 2008 Obama: 17 McCain: 10 Paul: 2

The very first place to vote in the nation overwhelming goes for Illinois Senator. Why is this significant? Because Dixville Notch went for Bush in 2004. Also, they haven’t voted for a Dem since 1968. Now, only 21 people voted, but the spread was 15 to 6. So this certainly bodes well for Obama’s chances [...]

Some lighter fare before tomorrow’s showdown… What do you think? Effective strategy? :-)

Presidential Election Electoral College: Popular Vote: Barack Obama — 52% John McCain — 45% Bob Barr —- 1% (first Libertarian Party candidate to receive over 1,000,000 popular votes) Ralph Nader — 1% Other candidates — 1 % United States Senate: 56 Democrats 41 Republicans 2 Independents Democrats will pick up Senate seats in Virginia, New [...]

As every indicator points to a Barack Obama win tomorrow, let’s pause to consider if there’s any reasonable scenario that could lead to a John McCain electoral college win, even if he loses the popular vote. Unless the state-by-state polls are grossly inaccurate, McCain’s chances are not great — but he does have one potential [...]

According to George Mason University, more than 29 million people have voted so far. For some additional perspective, that’s more than 23% of the total voters in 2004. Obviously, this points to a record breaking turnout in 2008. But what about the battlegrounds? Is Obama up in the states that matter? The answer across the [...]

We’ve seen plenty of polls over the past several weeks showing that Democrats are more enthusiastic about Barack Obama’s campaign than Republicans are about John McCain’s campaign. On one level, that’s understandable. McCain is losing this election, and he’s been behind in the polls for six weeks now; speaking as a veteran of many winning [...]

That’s one of the numbers I’m hearing today about Obama’s consistent lead. From MSNBC: Obama has now led in 111 straight national polls with methodologies we trust (looking back through the Pollster.com national trend), including the trackers back to Sept. 22-24 when a Gallup Tracking poll showed the race tied at 46%-46%. Since a Big [...]

A link to a video of Obama supposedly giving McCain the finger is on the front page right now… Boy, yeah, that’s damning. How dare he. jeezus…

Check out Pollster’s graphs that show how cell phone only users affect the election… No “Cell Phone Only” Weighting Conservative “Cell Phone Only” Weighting (2%) Full “Cell Phone Only” Weighting (4%) Pretty shocking numbers, but I can’t help but think the pollsters are missing at least 2% this election. Because personally I haven’t gotten any [...]

Well, tomorrow the election comes to its end. As weary as most Americans probably are with the campaign, at least it’s provided a lot of drama and excitement. Without further adieu, I offer my list of the best and worst moments and people of Campaign ’08. Feel free to share your own. Sorest Loser: Bill [...]

Bob Shrum and Mike Murphy talk about what went right for Obama and what went wrong for McCain… The Palin pick was indeed devastating, and I think all of the recent polling proves that. Ultimately, Obama knew that this year was about change and he stuck with that message throughout.

Obama – 52% McCain – 46% Obama gains one today, and I think it’s pretty clear from every single indicator out there that he has this thing locked up. Not only that, it looks like he’ll actually get a majority of the vote, and that hasn’t happened for a Dem in over 30 years. Rasmussen [...]

Repubs are hammering Obama on his coal comments and falsely accusing the San Francisco Chronicle of burying the interview even though they’ve had it available on their website since the interview took place. In fact, here’s the complete video of the interview… Republicans claim this is damning stuff. Well, then I think it’s important to [...]

The numbers have tightened a bit, but Obama looks poised to capture the POTUS tomorrow in every single projection. Real Clear Politics: Obama 338, McCain 200 Electoral-Vote.com: Obama 353, McCain 185 FiveThirtyEight: Obama 340.2, McCain 197.8 Pollster: Obama 311, McCain 142, Tied 85 So then… There’s really no good news for McCain in these maps [...]

An absolutely devastating day for McCain as he loses ground in every poll. Now Obama is up by double digits in every single model and Gallup is essentially predicting a massive landslide (55% to 44%) when you split the last bit of undecideds. And let’s face it…even if Obama doesn’t get to 55%, it’s still [...]