Some last minute math that makes it seem like a complete lost cause for McCain. Because if 30% have voted early and those voters are going for Obama by 19%, then McCain is going to have to win the remaining voters by 10% if he wants to make up the difference.
That’s simply not going to [...]

He was at the National Review for over 40 years and was a speechwriter for Nixon and Reagan.
Now he’s backing Barack.
From The Daily Beast…
Republican President George W. Bush has not been a conservative at all, either in domestic policy or in foreign policy. He invaded Iraq on the basis of abstract theory, the very thing [...]

In the last few days, I’ve had several Republican-leaning friends and family members tell me they were sitting this election out. The reason? They can’t vote for Sarah Palin.
I figured this was just an anecdotal coincidence, but then I saw a new CNN / Opinion Research Corporation poll that indicates Palin may be costing John [...]

I knew this guy wasn’t a good surrogate for the McCain campaign from nearly the first moment he started opening his mouth and voicing his real opinions, but I didn’t realize just how uninformed he was until I saw the following clip.
Just watch Fox News’ Neil Cavuto try to change the subject…

Listen, you can not [...]

More “poll of polls” numbers suggest Obama could capture some reliably red states.
Nevada…
CNN’s new Nevada Poll of Polls shows Obama leading McCain by 6 points, 49% to 43%; CNN’s last Nevada Poll of Polls –- released October 31 –- showed Obama leading McCain by 7 points.
North Carolina…
Obama is leading McCain by 2 points, 49% to [...]

Who else is afraid that election day will be a mess?
Here’s NBC with more on the problems with our voting infrastructure…

Regardless of who wins on Tuesday, you can expect nearly every single Democratic politician in every single state to start pushing for early voting across the board. Especially if the lines on election day are [...]

Obama: 52%
McCain: 46%
McCain has made some good gains from last week to this week with undecided voters, but Obama is still maintaining a solid margin above 50%.
The details…
In the campaign’s final week, McCain is getting the boost that Republican candidates typically receive when the sample is narrowed from the base of 2,995 registered voters to [...]

You knew it had to happen. But what’s surprising is this was created and is being funded by the Republican Party of Pennsylvania.
In fact, their user account on YouTube only has two videos in it, with this being one of them.

Will McCain denounce this tactic?
We shall see…

Encouraging movement for McCain today, as the momentary bump from Obama’s infomercial seems to be settling back down.
Still, Obama is above 50% in all three models and even if McCain manages to capture 60% of undecideds, Obama will still get at least 54% of the popular vote if you look at the expanded likely and [...]

This time on Meet The Press, explaining how difficult it will be for McCain to get to 270.

Does McCain really think he can get all of these swing states? Will undecideds turn this significantly against Obama?
We shall see…

The poll of the polls…

Note that it’s more likely that Obama will win North Dakota than Florida. Pretty crazy.
My guess on Tuesday is that if voters are still undecided at this point they’ll break for McCain because they’re essentially okay with Bush’s 8 years and McCain would clearly be an extension of that.
So…what does that [...]

And actually, just to give you a preview of my election night prediction…this is pretty close to what I’m thinking.
First, the Obama leads…
Florida: Obama +2
Obama: 47%
McCain: 45%
Virginia: Obama +3
Obama: 47%
McCain: 44%
Pennsylvania: Obama +4
Obama: 47%
McCain: 43%
Nevada: Obama +4
Obama: 47%
McCain: 43%
Colorado Obama +5
Obama: 49%
McCain: 44%

And then, the McCain leads…
Missouri: McCain +1
McCain: 47%
Obama: 46%
Ohio: McCain +2
McCain: 47%
Obama: 45%
North [...]

As with many of the Obama ads this election cycle, the effectiveness of this lies in its simplicity.
Cheney = Bush = McCain.

I honestly don’t know what Dick Cheney was thinking by endorsing this late in the game. It’s almost as if he wanted to kick McCain in the gut, because he had to know this [...]

The poll of polls reveals Obama holding steady.
Colorado…
CNN’s new Colorado Poll of Polls shows Obama leading McCain by 6 points 51% to 45%; The last Colorado Poll of Polls –- released Saturday –- showed Obama leading McCain by 7 points.
Florida…
An average of polls conducted in battleground Florida, shows Obama leading McCain by 4 points, 49% [...]

Obama - 51%
McCain - 46%
No movement today as Rasmussen is showing perhaps the most conservative lead for Obama in all of the daily trackers.
The numbers…
Now, however, Obama is now viewed favorably by 55% of voters nationwide, McCain by 53%. Obama gets positive reviews from 88% of Democrats and 56% of unaffiliated voters. 90% of Republicans [...]

And he has a 13 point lead among likely voters.
The details…
(CBS) With just three days left until Election Day, a new CBS News poll finds that the Democratic presidential ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden leads its Republican counterpart by 13 points among likely voters, 54% to 41%. That margin reflects an increase of [...]

He was hilarious, but, as with Palin’s appearance, I can’t help but think that this doesn’t really help his chances.

Transcript after the jump…

A lot of people were buzzing about Eagleburger’s comments about Palin yesterday, and today he’s actually claiming that the statements were in the wrong context.
However, that’s not the story here. Of course Eagleburger was going to try this. But the degree to which Fox helped him do it is pretty remarkable.
Around minute 2:20 in the [...]

More trend lines from Pollster.com, and it looks like McCain will be able to hold onto this state barely.

Here’s Chuck Todd’s take…
Has this state really slipped into the toss-up category? Possibly. A few years ago, I asked a smart Democratic demographer which states could become competitive if the party could maximize voter registration and turnout [...]

Perhaps this one is less of a toss up than I first thought?

Chuck Todd has his take…
One of the better state Republican parties is right here in the Buckeye State; it’s why so many of us aren’t ready to count McCain out yet in Ohio. The Republican machine is a good one. The Democrats had [...]