Independent Voters

• On healthcare and other hot issues: Follow the independents–The number of voters not tied to Democrats or Republicans is expanding fast. Both parties need to adjust. (By the Christian Science Monitor’s Editorial Board) Were the 2010 elections to occur today, 43 percent of independents say they would vote Republican (in a generic congressional ballot), while 38 percent would vote Democratic, the Pew Research Center finds. That’s quite a shift from 2006, when independents favored Democrats over Republicans, 44 to 33 percent.

Open Primaries

• South Dakota Democrats Will Allow Independent Voters to Vote in their Primaries (Ballot Access News)
• Re-enfranchising New Yorkers (by Richard Flanagan, Gotham Gazette) Voters overwhelmingly rejected Macchiarola’s plan for nonpartisan elections, 70 percent to 30 percent. But only 13 percent of registered voters bothered to show up for the off-year election of 2003, and many had ties to the unions, interest groups and political clubs that benefit from the status quo and know how to pull the levers of the current system to their advantage. They were loathe to expand the electorate and risk the surrender of power.

Independent Gov Races

In an unsettled political environment where voters are exercising independent options, independent candidates like NJ gubernatorial candidate Chris Daggett pick up support….

• Poll: New Jersey gubernatorial race a virtual tie (From CNN Associate Producer Martina Stewart)
• Daggett gets little help from ballot position (Press of Atlantic City) New Jersey laws reserving the top two spots on any ballot for the two major-party candidates. Last month, Daggett – along with Libertarian Party candidate Kenneth Kaplan – took the step of filing suit against the practice.
• Daggett for guv? Why not? (By ALEX GECAN, For The Trentonian)

Bloomberg 09

NYC Dem machine targets independent run by Mike Bloomberg with 2 darts: money (the Mayor is very wealthy…) and term limits (which the Dem-controlled City Council extended….) Good luck with that! Meanwhile, it’s the NYC Independence and the Working Families Parties that are supplying the spark in this year’s city-wide elections. In a city of 5-1 Dem registration, that’s not good news for clubhouse politics…

• Bloomberg’s Line Dance (BY ELIZABETH BENJAMIN, Daily News/Daily Politics)
• Voters Like Mayor, but Not His Path to 3rd Run (By MICHAEL BARBARO, NY Times)
• New York City mayor Mike Bloomberg received the endorsement of the Hotel and Motel Trades Council (From msnbc’s First Read with Chuck Todd)
• After term limit tiff, Bloomberg still gets hotel endorsement (ELIZABETH BENJAMIN, NY Daily News/Brawl for the Hall) The only union with a major field operation that remains unpledged is 1199, which voted for Thompson during the WFP endorsement process. Neutrality is not out of the question for 1199, a union source said.

For more news headlines for independent voters, see The Hankster

If you want to call it “fickle” to leave the two-party system behind in favor creating a new political culture, call me fickle!

• 2010: Fight for fickle kids (By: Eamon Javers, Politico) Stanford University political science professor Morris Fiorina is convinced that both political parties haven’t yet grasped the scale of the change that’s happening in society. Republicans, he said, made the mistake of assuming that the divisions they exploited in the 2000-2004 elections were much deeper and more durable than they actually were — and were shocked by vote swings in 2006 and 2008 that would have seemed inconceivable in 2004. Not to mention, he said, “the emergence of Obama out of nowhere.”

PENNSYLVANIA

Independent-turned-Democrat Joe Sestak plans to challenge veteran Republican-turned Democrat Sen. Arlen Specter in the 2010 Pennsylvania Democratic primary.

• Senate candidates from opposite sides use same strategy against Specter (By Reid Wilson, The Hill) Whether it is the outlier result of a single poll or the harbinger of inroads to come, Toomey actually leads Specter by a 46-42 percent margin among independent voters in a Quinnipiac University survey. The poll was conducted July 14-19.
• Sestak ready to announce he’ll take on Specter (By Thomas Fitzgerald, Philadelphia Inquirer)
• Sestak Fires Back: Dem. Specter Makes Republican Swift Boat Attacks On Dem. Military Veterans (By Brian Beutler, TPM, July 9, 2009)

NEW JERSEY

Gov race: Dem Corzine vs. Repub Christie vs. independent Daggett

• NJ Gov: Internal (D) Poll Shows Corzine Down 7 (RealClearPolitics)
• Christie maintains lead over Corzine in poll (By Cynthia Burton, Philadelphia Inquirer) independent candidate Chris Daggett took 4 percent

NEW YORK

Special elections in NY are nonpartisan and therefore allow everyone to vote regardless of registration. They favor insurgents and independent candidates.

Goo-Goos To Paterson: Don’t Call 38th AD Special Election (Liz Benjamin, Daily News/Daily Politics)

For more independent news, see The Hankster, where the independents are…

New Hampshire was expected, but still a swing state in the grand scheme of things.

The others were not surprises in the least.

A total of 56 electoral votes.

This represents a slip of 1% since polling was done in late February.

Key demo findings…

Obama has a double-digit lead among women, 46%-35%, and men split 44%-44%. McCain leads among Independent voters, 42%-40%.

And concerning Hillary…

More than half (53%) of New Jersey voters say Obama should not pick Hillary Clinton as his vice presidential running mate, while 36% say he should. But an Obama/Clinton ticket would help the Democrats, voters say.

Conclusion? New Jersey doesn’t seem as solidly blue as many think. Because any time a candidate has support under 50%, there’s always a shot for the challenger to gain ground once the real campaign begins.

More as it develops…

“The election is over, everybody knows that. Obama has won,” said Vernon Watkins, one of the two Californians.

Also, Joe Johnson of Virginia has apparently endorsed, but there are scant details about this anywhere.

Post-Pennsylvania delegate pickups:
Obama – 40
Clinton – 12.5

Total superdelegates:
Clinton – 273.5
Obama – 269

However, the AP reports that Obama is within .5 delegates of catching Hillary. That’s right, half a delegate. ABC reported earlier that he had overtaken her.

So now it’s decision time. Do I stick with my total or go with somebody else’s?

Well, both the AP and 2008 Democratic Convention Watch say that he’s within .5 delegates and it’s very likely I’ve miscounted at some point. So I’m going to go with the AP’s number for here on out. Because I don’t think they’re counting strong leaners, and I’m pretty sure ABC is.

New Total Superdelegates:
Clinton – 271.5
Obama – 271

Total post-PA pickups after the jump…

Obama superdelegate pickups:
Joe Johnson (VA), DNC – May 9, 2008
Vernon Watkins (CA), DNC – May 9, 2008
Wilber Lee Jeffcoat (SC), DNC Vice Chairman – May 9, 2008
Laurie Weahkee (NM), DNC – May 9, 2008
Mazie Hirono (HI), Representative – May 9, 2008
Ed Espinoza (CA), DNC – May 9, 2008
John Gage (MD), DNC – May 9, 2008
Peter DeFazio (OR), Representative – May 9, 2008
Donald Payne (NJ), Representative – May 9, 2008
Rick Larsen (WA), Representative – May 8, 2008
Brad Miller (NC), Representative – May 8, 2008
Jennifer McClellan (VA), DNC – May 7, 2008
Inola Henry (CA), DNC – May 7, 2008
Jerry Meek (NC), Dem Chairman – May 7, 2008
Jeanette Council (NC), DNC – May 7, 2008
Lauren Dugas Glover (MD), DNC Vice Chairman – May 5, 2008
Michael Cryor (MD), DNC Chairman – May 5, 2008
Kalyn Free (OK), DNC – May 5, 2008
Jaime Paulino (Guam), DNC & Territory Vice Chair – May 4, 2008
Parris Glendening (MD), Governor – May 3, 2008
Inez Tenenbaum (SC), DNC – May 3, 2008
Brian Colón (TX), DNC – May 3, 2008
Paul G. Kirk, Jr. (MA), DNC – May 2, 2008
John Patrick (TX), DNC – May 1, 2008
Barbara Flynn Currie (IL), DNC – May 1, 2008
Todd Stroger (IL), DNC – May 1, 2008
Richard M. Daley (IL), DNC – May 1, 2008
Joe Andrew (IN), DNC – May 1, 2008
Bruce Braley (IA), Representative – Apr 30, 2008
Lois Capps (CA), Representative – Apr 30, 2008
Baron Hill (IN), Representative – Apr 30, 2008
Ben Chandler (KY), Representative – Apr 29, 2008
Richard Machacek (IA), DNC – Apr 29, 2008
Jeff Bingaman (NM), Senator – Apr 28, 2008
Charlene Fernandez (AZ), DNC & State Vice Chair – Apr 26, 2008
David Wu (OR), Representative – Apr 24, 2008
Audra Ostergard (NE), DNC & State Vice Chair – Apr 23, 2008
Brad Henry (OK), Governor – Apr 23, 2008

Clinton superdelegate pickups:
Chris Carney (PA), Representative – May 9, 2008
Brad Ellsworth (IN), Representative – May 7, 2008
Heath Shuler (NC), Representative – May 7, 2008
Theresa Morelli (Dems Abroad), DNC May 5, 2008
Kathleen Kennedy Townsend (MD), Lt. Governor – May 3, 2008
Jaime A. Gonzalez Jr. (TX), DNC – May 2, 2008
Andrew Cuomo (NY), DNC – May 1, 2008
Thomas DiNapoli (NY), DNC – May 1, 2008
C. Virginia Field (NY), DNC – May 1, 2008
Carmen Arroyo (NY), DNC – May 1, 2008
John Olsen (CT), DNC – May 1, 2008
Luisette Cabanas (PR), DNC & Territory Vice Chair – Apr 30, 2008
William George (PA), DNC – Apr 30, 2008
Ike Skelton (MO), Representative, Apr 29, 2008
Mike Easley (NC), Governor – Apr 28, 2008
Kathy Sullivan (NH), Add-On – Apr 26, 2008
John Tanner (TN), Representative – Apr 23, 2008

Clinton superdelegate losses:
Donald Payne (NJ), Representative – May 9, 2008
Jennifer McClellan (VA), DNC – May 7, 2008
Arlene P. Bordallo (Guam), DNC & Former Territory Vice Chair- May 4, 2008
Joe Andrew (IN), DNC – May 1, 2008

This is almost the exact same post I wrote a couple days ago, and so far she’s simply running in place, unable to add any to her total.

First, she lost Rep. Donald Payne from New Jersey with the congressman citing the reason as trying to pull the party together…

“After careful consideration, I have reached the conclusion that Barack Obama can best bring about the change that our country so desperately wants and needs,” Payne told The Star-Ledger for today’s editions. It was “one of the most difficult decisions I have made,” Payne said. “I’ve really been mulling it over for quite a while.”

Then she won Rep. Chris Carney from Pennsylvania…

“I have watched this primary process very closely, and as I said I would do, I have weighed the temperament and leadership displayed by Sens. Clinton and Obama during the course of this campaign,” Carney said in a statement. “We are extremely fortunate to have two very strong candidates vying to lead our nation. Pennsylvania’s 10th (Congressional) District (voters) overwhelmingly chose Sen. Clinton in the Pennsylvania primary and I will respect their decision.”

Another problem here is that Clinton keeps winning supers whose districts she won. That doesn’t help her case that superdelegates should vote their conscience instead of obeying the “will of the people.” In fact, she needs some defections from Obama if she wants to make a real case for the nomination, but the likelihood of that happening now is slim to none.

And all this running in place (win one, lose one) still has the post-Pennsylvania delegate pickup race with Obama leading at 30 to 12.5, and with the grand totals being Clinton 273.5, Obama – 262.

Total pickups after the jump…

Obama superdelegate pickups:
Donald Payne (NJ), Representative – May 9, 2008
Rick Larsen (WA), Representative – May 8, 2008
Brad Miller (NC), Representative – May 8, 2008
Jennifer McClellan (VA), DNC – May 7, 2008
Inola Henry (CA), DNC – May 7, 2008
Jerry Meek (NC), Dem Chairman – May 7, 2008
Jeanette Council (NC), DNC – May 7, 2008
Lauren Dugas Glover (MD), DNC Vice Chairman – May 5, 2008
Michael Cryor (MD), DNC Chairman – May 5, 2008
Kalyn Free (OK), DNC – May 5, 2008
Jaime Paulino (Guam), DNC & Territory Vice Chair – May 4, 2008
Parris Glendening (MD), Governor – May 3, 2008
Inez Tenenbaum (SC), DNC – May 3, 2008
Brian Colón (TX), DNC – May 3, 2008
Paul G. Kirk, Jr. (MA), DNC – May 2, 2008
John Patrick (TX), DNC – May 1, 2008
Barbara Flynn Currie (IL), DNC – May 1, 2008
Todd Stroger (IL), DNC – May 1, 2008
Richard M. Daley (IL), DNC – May 1, 2008
Joe Andrew (IN), DNC – May 1, 2008
Bruce Braley (IA), Representative – Apr 30, 2008
Lois Capps (CA), Representative – Apr 30, 2008
Baron Hill (IN), Representative – Apr 30, 2008
Ben Chandler (KY), Representative – Apr 29, 2008
Richard Machacek (IA), DNC – Apr 29, 2008
Jeff Bingaman (NM), Senator – Apr 28, 2008
Charlene Fernandez (AZ), DNC & State Vice Chair – Apr 26, 2008
David Wu (OR), Representative – Apr 24, 2008
Audra Ostergard (NE), DNC & State Vice Chair – Apr 23, 2008
Brad Henry (OK), Governor – Apr 23, 2008

Clinton superdelegate pickups:
Chris Carney (PA), Representative – May 9, 2008
Brad Ellsworth (IN), Representative – May 7, 2008
Heath Shuler (NC), Representative – May 7, 2008
Theresa Morelli (Dems Abroad), DNC May 5, 2008
Kathleen Kennedy Townsend (MD), Lt. Governor – May 3, 2008
Jaime A. Gonzalez Jr. (TX), DNC – May 2, 2008
Andrew Cuomo (NY), DNC – May 1, 2008
Thomas DiNapoli (NY), DNC – May 1, 2008
C. Virginia Field (NY), DNC – May 1, 2008
Carmen Arroyo (NY), DNC – May 1, 2008
John Olsen (CT), DNC – May 1, 2008
Luisette Cabanas (PR), DNC & Territory Vice Chair – Apr 30, 2008
William George (PA), DNC – Apr 30, 2008
Ike Skelton (MO), Representative, Apr 29, 2008
Mike Easley (NC), Governor – Apr 28, 2008
Kathy Sullivan (NH), Add-On – Apr 26, 2008
John Tanner (TN), Representative – Apr 23, 2008

Clinton superdelegate losses:
Donald Payne (NJ), Representative – May 9, 2008
Jennifer McClellan (VA), DNC – May 7, 2008
Arlene P. Bordallo (Guam), DNC & Former Territory Vice Chair- May 4, 2008
Joe Andrew (IN), DNC – May 1, 2008

Bottom line, Clinton has won big in the Northeast.

In California, which alone provides more than one-fifth of the Democratic delegates needed for the nomination, Obama led Clinton by 49 percent to 36 percent, the poll found. The margin of error was 3.3 percentage points.

Clinton pulled into a 5-point lead in New Jersey, 46 percent to 41 percent, after being tied on Monday. Obama held a 45 percent to 42 percent edge on Clinton in Missouri. Both polls had a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.

Obama had a 20-point edge in Georgia, aided by a more than 3-to-1 lead among black voters.

I just don’t believe that Barack has gained that much ground in such a short time. It’s certainly not impossible, but highly, highly improbable.