47% don’t think he is.
29% are unsure.
That leaves less than a quarter (24%) who believe he is.
Also, only 54% of all North Carolina voters think he’s actually a citizen.
Wow.
Public Policy Polling has more…

Well, it’s not official yet, but with Missouri all but certain to be called for McCain in the next day or so the final electoral tally should shape up like this…
Obama: 364
McCain: 174
By the way, is anybody else blown away that Obama beat McCain by more than 2 to 1?
And also…North Carolina went blue???
In any [...]

Why is this significant? Because 51% of those were Dems, 30% were Repubs and 19% were Indies.
So with 2.6M votes already in the bank, Dems have at least 1.3M of those to Repubs 860K.
Still, the turnout on election day promises to be massive.
MSNBC reports…

This favors Obama, but I’m still not convinced Obama will pull [...]

More “poll of polls” numbers suggest Obama could capture some reliably red states.
Nevada…
CNN’s new Nevada Poll of Polls shows Obama leading McCain by 6 points, 49% to 43%; CNN’s last Nevada Poll of Polls –- released October 31 –- showed Obama leading McCain by 7 points.
North Carolina…
Obama is leading McCain by 2 points, 49% to [...]

And actually, just to give you a preview of my election night prediction…this is pretty close to what I’m thinking.
First, the Obama leads…
Florida: Obama +2
Obama: 47%
McCain: 45%
Virginia: Obama +3
Obama: 47%
McCain: 44%
Pennsylvania: Obama +4
Obama: 47%
McCain: 43%
Nevada: Obama +4
Obama: 47%
McCain: 43%
Colorado Obama +5
Obama: 49%
McCain: 44%

And then, the McCain leads…
Missouri: McCain +1
McCain: 47%
Obama: 46%
Ohio: McCain +2
McCain: 47%
Obama: 45%
North [...]

Good signs on the state level (.pdf), even if Obama’s numbers are slipping a bit nationally in the past couple days.
Colorado: Obama +9
Obama: 50%
McCain: 41%
Florida: Obama + 2
Obama: 45%
McCain: 43%
Nevada: Obama +12
Obama: 52%
McCain: 40%
New Hampshire: Obama +18
Obama: 55%
McCain: 37%
North Carolina: Obama +2
Obama: 48%
McCain: 46%
Ohio: Obama +7
Obama: 48%
McCain: 41%
Pennsylvania: Obama +12
Obama: 52%
McCain: 40%
Virginia: Obama + 7
Obama: [...]

The only good news here for McCain is that West Virginia is still in his corner. Still, that’s only a single digit lead and these are all states that Bush carried in 2004.
Nevada: +5 Obama
Obama 51%
McCain 46%
North Carolina: +4 Obama
Obama 51%
McCain 47%
Ohio: +4 Obama
Obama 50%
McCain 46%
Virginia: +10 Obama
Obama 54%
McCain 44%
West Virginia: +9 McCain
McCain 53%
Obama 44%
Earlier [...]

Apparently they have a program this year that allows you to register to vote and vote on the same day, and that has helped turn out nearly 500,000 people so far, or 9% of the state’s 5.5M registered voters.
WSJ shares the details…

Of those voting in person, registered Democrats accounted for 61%, Republicans accounted for 22%, [...]

TIME has the numbers.
In Nevada and North Carolina it favors Obama…
Cumulative early-vote totals in the Las Vegas area show ballots were cast by 31,875 Democrats and 13,371 Republicans through midday Monday. Republicans had the advantage in absentee balloting, 6,616 to 6,161 through noon Monday.
In the Reno area, a similar pattern occurred twice as many Democrats [...]

It’s overwhelmingly favoring Obama…
Across the state, Democrats showed the most first-day enthusiasm. Of the nearly 114,000 first-day voters, 64 percent were Democrats, 21 percent Republicans and 15 percent were unaffiliated.
African-American turnout was up significantly. Black voters, who make up about 22 percent of registered voters, were 36 percent of Thursday’s early voters.
In 2004, [...]

Not much change from last week to this week, so the story is essentially that Obama’s numbers are holding steady in these key battleground states with 21 days left.
Florida
Obama 51, McCain 46
Week ago: Obama 52, McCain 45)
Missouri
Obama 50, McCain 47
Last week: Obama 50, McCain 47
North Carolina
Obama 48, McCain 48
Last week: Obama 49, McCain 48
Ohio
Obama 49, [...]

First the numbers…
New Hampshire:
Obama 53%, McCain 45%
Obama 51%, McCain 43%, Barr 3%, Nader 1%
Wisconsin:
Obama 51%, McCain 46%
Obama 50%, McCain 42%, Nader 4%, Barr 1%
Ohio:
Obama 50%, McCain 47%
Obama 48%, McCain 45%, Nader 3%, Barr 2%
North Carolina:
Obama 49%, McCain 49%
Obama 49%, McCain 48%, Barr 2%
Indiana:
McCain 51%, Obama 46%
McCain 48%, Obama 46%, Barr 5%
Looks like Barr is [...]

I wouldn’t usually write about this, but A) Hugh McColl, Jr. sounds like he has to be a fiscal conservative if he’s a banker and B) Bank of America appears to be one of those banks that’s apparently extremely well-managed and is weathering this crisis because of it.
What’s more, this editorial is in the Charlotte [...]

Earlier today, former Republican senator from North Carolina, Jesse Helms died at the age of 86. Helms, often a controversial figure, was one of the Republicans who led the expansion of the GOP base to included blue collar workers and especially evangelicals and other social conservatives. A staunch opponent of abortion and communism and a [...]

McCain – 45%
Obama – 41%
Obama has gained 2 points from the previous poll, while McCain has gained 1, which represents a net +1 gain for Obama.
Here are the numbers from previous months:
2/08 – McCain 46%, Obama 36%
4/08 – McCain 48%, Obama 39%
5/08 – McCain 44%, Obama 39%
So McCain’s lead has dwindled from 10 to 9 [...]

Former Arkansas Governor and presidential contender Mike Huckabee could apparently have a career as an EMT.
This weekend at the North Carolina GOP convention breakfast, Huckabee performed the Heimlich maneuver on Lt. Governor candidate Robert Pittenger who began choking while sitting next to Huckabee.
In all seriousness, praise goes out to Huckabee for quick action. In [...]

It’s at about :30 seconds in. Edwards was asked if he’ll be able to endorse the person he voted for in North Carolina. Edwards said, with a big grin on this face, “I’d say highly likely, yes.”

I think that’s pretty obvious.

Rep. Brad Miller has agreed to back the Illinois Senator…
Miller made his decision after meeting with Obama in Washington today.
“Senator Obama understands that he has the chance not just to win the election this year, but to be a great president,” Miller wrote in his announcement.

So that means Obama leads in post Pennsylvania pickups [...]

Remember this post from earlier today?
Well, he was right…
Hillary Clinton’s inner circle now fears a stinging defeat is likely in North Carolina.
“Look, we worked hard and gave it our best shot, but the demographics, well, they are what they are,” a top campaign source explained to the DRUDGE REPORT as voting began Tuesday morning. [...]

As I predicted earlier, he’s going to win by 15%.
Here’s the raw, and you can see I rounded these numbers up.
Obama – 888,979 - 56.7%
Clinton – 655,482 – 41.8%
No Pref- 22,626 – 1%
Total Vote – 1,567,087
I think he beat nearly all the pollsters projections, although Zogby was the closest that I can see.