47% don’t think he is.

29% are unsure.

That leaves less than a quarter (24%) who believe he is.

Also, only 54% of all North Carolina voters think he’s actually a citizen.

Wow.

Public Policy Polling has more…

Well, it’s not official yet, but with Missouri all but certain to be called for McCain in the next day or so the final electoral tally should shape up like this…

Obama: 364
McCain: 174

By the way, is anybody else blown away that Obama beat McCain by more than 2 to 1?

And also…North Carolina went blue???

In any event, here’s more about NC…

Democrat Barack Obama is the unofficial winner in North Carolina, but the victory over Sen. John McCain won’t be sealed until provisional ballots are counted and certified next month.

Unofficial returns show Obama ahead by 13,746 votes.

Trends over the last 14 years point to Obama having a wider lead after the provisionals are counted, said Gary Bartlett, executive director of the State Board of Elections.

“It widens the lead for the winner, no matter who that may be,” Bartlett said.

His office will know tomorrow how many provisional ballots the counties have. Usually, about 65 percent of the voters who cast provisional ballots were eligible.

And scene.

So with 2.6M votes already in the bank, Dems have at least 1.3M of those to Repubs 860K.

Still, the turnout on election day promises to be massive.

MSNBC reports…

This favors Obama, but I’m still not convinced Obama will pull it out. Although he did do incredibly well in the primaries so maybe I’m being too pessimistic.

We shall see…

More “poll of polls” numbers suggest Obama could capture some reliably red states.

Nevada…

CNN’s new Nevada Poll of Polls shows Obama leading McCain by 6 points, 49% to 43%; CNN’s last Nevada Poll of Polls –- released October 31 –- showed Obama leading McCain by 7 points.

North Carolina…

Obama is leading McCain by 2 points, 49% to 47%; CNN’s last North Carolina Poll of Polls –- released October 31 –- showed Obama leading McCain by 4 points, 50 percent to 46 percent.

Ohio…

the Democratic nominee leading the Republican nominee by 4 points, 49% to 45%; CNN’s last Ohio Poll of Polls –- released October 31 –- showed Obama leading McCain by 5 points.

Earlier I said that any state where Obama was below 50% was a problem for him. However, in Nevada I think there’s an exception, especially because McCain is at 43%. I just don’t think it’s realistic that he’ll get a 7% swing.

But in Ohio and North Carolina? Well, if you’re an Obama fan, I wouldn’t count on either of those going blue this election. But the good news is that he doesn’t need them. Sure, it would be nice to run up the score, but a win is a win and Obama is focused on getting above 270 and that’s it.

More as it develops…

First, the Obama leads…

Florida: Obama +2
Obama: 47%
McCain: 45%

Virginia: Obama +3
Obama: 47%
McCain: 44%

Pennsylvania: Obama +4
Obama: 47%
McCain: 43%

Nevada: Obama +4
Obama: 47%
McCain: 43%

Colorado Obama +5
Obama: 49%
McCain: 44%

And then, the McCain leads…

Missouri: McCain +1
McCain: 47%
Obama: 46%

Ohio: McCain +2
McCain: 47%
Obama: 45%

North Carolina: McCain +3
McCain: 49%
Obama: 46%

And that’s it. These are the last polls from NBC before the election.

Good signs on the state level (.pdf), even if Obama’s numbers are slipping a bit nationally in the past couple days.

Colorado: Obama +9
Obama: 50%
McCain: 41%

Florida: Obama + 2
Obama: 45%
McCain: 43%

Nevada: Obama +12
Obama: 52%
McCain: 40%

New Hampshire: Obama +18
Obama: 55%
McCain: 37%

North Carolina: Obama +2
Obama: 48%
McCain: 46%

Ohio: Obama +7
Obama: 48%
McCain: 41%

Pennsylvania: Obama +12
Obama: 52%
McCain: 40%

Virginia: Obama + 7
Obama: 49%
McCain: 42%

My prediction? Any state where there’s a margin of 5 or less, he’ll lose. So that means Florida and North Carolina probably won’t turn out in Obama’s favor come election day. I really think undecideds will start to break 2 to 1 for McCain because they’re just nervous that Obama will tax the hell out of them.

And even though Obama leads by 7 in Ohio, I also have my doubts he’ll take it. I just don’t think there are enough early votes there to swing it.

But all the rest? Virginia, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Nevada and New Hampshire are Obama’s.

What do you think?

The only good news here for McCain is that West Virginia is still in his corner. Still, that’s only a single digit lead and these are all states that Bush carried in 2004.

Nevada: +5 Obama
Obama 51%
McCain 46%

North Carolina: +4 Obama
Obama 51%
McCain 47%

Ohio: +4 Obama
Obama 50%
McCain 46%

Virginia: +10 Obama
Obama 54%
McCain 44%

West Virginia: +9 McCain
McCain 53%
Obama 44%

Earlier in the day I mentioned a factoid about North Carolina early voting favoring Dems over Repubs, 61% to 22%, so I think NC is very much in play. Also, I think Virginia is a lock for Obama. Nevada is getting close to being that too, but it’s probably going to be a squeaker that goes blue.

But Ohio? I just don’t think it’ll go blue this season. Not enough new voters there and early voting hasn’t turned out that well for the Dems. Also, West Virginia just isn’t close enough at this point for Obama to have the momentum to sweep through there.

Still, 3 out of 5 would really start turning this into landslide territory on November 4th.

More as it develops…

Apparently they have a program this year that allows you to register to vote and vote on the same day, and that has helped turn out nearly 500,000 people so far, or 9% of the state’s 5.5M registered voters.

WSJ shares the details…

• Of those voting in person, registered Democrats accounted for 61%, Republicans accounted for 22%, and 17% had no affiliation or were registered with an alternative party.
• Democrats accounted for 29% of mail-in ballots while Republicans accounted for 54%.
• The absentee ballots include 3,400 cast by U.S. servicemen serving overseas. They are fairly evenly split between Democrats, 36%, and Republicans, 38%. About 17% have no affiliation or are registered or with an alternative party.

Of note, North Carolina hasn’t voted for a Dem candidate since Jimmy Carter, so an Obama win here would be extremely significant. Then again, an Obama win in Virginia would be particularly noteworthy too, and his prospects in that state look better than in North Carolina.

More as it develops…

TIME has the numbers.

In Nevada and North Carolina it favors Obama…

Cumulative early-vote totals in the Las Vegas area show ballots were cast by 31,875 Democrats and 13,371 Republicans through midday Monday. Republicans had the advantage in absentee balloting, 6,616 to 6,161 through noon Monday.

In the Reno area, a similar pattern occurred twice as many Democrats than Republicans voted early through noon Monday. [...]

Early voting opened Thursday and drew some 214,000 voters to the polls in the first two days, leading to hours-long lines in parts of the state and lengthy schedules for poll workers.

In the first few days, the balloting clearly favored Democrats, with those registered with the party making up 62 percent of those who had voted. Only 22 percent of the voters had been registered Republicans.

In Florida, McCain has a big jump…

Republicans have requested 295,000 absentee ballots statewide compared with 199,000 Democrats.

And in Georgia it’s anybody’s guess since they don’t keep track of party affiliation, although reports do have African American turnout at 39% of early voting. That’s up from 22% in 2004.

It’s overwhelmingly favoring Obama…

Across the state, Democrats showed the most first-day enthusiasm. Of the nearly 114,000 first-day voters, 64 percent were Democrats, 21 percent Republicans and 15 percent were unaffiliated.

African-American turnout was up significantly. Black voters, who make up about 22 percent of registered voters, were 36 percent of Thursday’s early voters.

In 2004, blacks made up 18.6 percent of voters.

This large percentage of early voting among African Americans follows similar patterns in Georgia…

A disproportionate number of Georgia’s 194,138 early voters are African-American, in what could be an encouraging sign for Sen. Barack Obama’s presidential campaign.

As of Wednesday, about 39 percent of those voters — 74,961 — are African-Americans, Georgia Secretary of State Karen Handel’s office said.

African-Americans make up 29 percent of registered voters in the state, according to Oct.1 figures. They cast 25 percent of the total votes cast in the presidential election four years ago.

Simply put, this is the type of turnout you need to win. And if this is happening all across the country, then it hints at a landslide. I’m not saying it’ll happen, but the signs are starting to point in that direction.

Need more proof?

See the only other “North” state in the union.

Florida
Obama 51, McCain 46
Week ago: Obama 52, McCain 45)

Missouri
Obama 50, McCain 47
Last week: Obama 50, McCain 47

North Carolina
Obama 48, McCain 48
Last week: Obama 49, McCain 48

Ohio
Obama 49, McCain 47
Last week: McCain 48, Obama 47

Virginia
Obama 50, McCain 47
Last week: Obama 50, McCain 48

By the way, 1000 likely voters were polled in each state, and the MOE is +/- 3.

New Hampshire:
Obama 53%, McCain 45%
Obama 51%, McCain 43%, Barr 3%, Nader 1%

Wisconsin:
Obama 51%, McCain 46%
Obama 50%, McCain 42%, Nader 4%, Barr 1%

Ohio:
Obama 50%, McCain 47%
Obama 48%, McCain 45%, Nader 3%, Barr 2%

North Carolina:
Obama 49%, McCain 49%
Obama 49%, McCain 48%, Barr 2%

Indiana:
McCain 51%, Obama 46%
McCain 48%, Obama 46%, Barr 5%

Looks like Barr is really hurting McCain in Indiana, and with such discontent for Republicans this year, I can definitely see more people casting their ballots for the Libertarian candidate.

Some more analysis…

On the eve of the penultimate presidential debate, a new TIME/CNN poll shows John McCain still struggling in states won by George W. Bush in 2004, a sign that last week’s vice presidential debate had little effect on voter opinion. [...]

Last week, the McCain campaign reacted to a polling downturn by shuttering its operation in the state of Michigan and redistributing staff to Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Maine, where electoral votes are distributed by congressional district. In a conference call last week, Mike DuHaime, the McCain campaign’s political director, acknowledged that the national mood and Obama’s deep pockets had put previously solid Republican states like Indiana in play.

“I do think just the overall environment right now that we face is one of the worst environments for any Republican in probably 35 years,” DuHaime said. “Any time you have that, you have states move within that margin.”

The big question now, besides Ayers, Rezko and Wright…what else does McCain have to drive up Obama’s negatives? And can he even accomplish that with so much of the electorate having already made up their minds.

I wouldn’t usually write about this, but A) Hugh McColl, Jr. sounds like he has to be a fiscal conservative if he’s a banker and B) Bank of America appears to be one of those banks that’s apparently extremely well-managed and is weathering this crisis because of it.

What’s more, this editorial is in the Charlotte Observer…a North Carolina paper…

In 49 years of living in Charlotte, I’ve seldom offered my opinion in writing and never submitted a piece such as this. The condition of our country compels me.

The economic disarray threatening our community and nation poses critical challenges but also presents opportunity. We can observe the presidential candidates in the crucible of crisis.

Only one of them demonstrates the needed intellect, fortitude and temperament. That is why I have decided to publicly support Barack Obama.

What is needed in Washington is sound judgment and exceptional leadership. Through the years that I’ve been a businessman and before that an officer in the Marine Corps, I saw what qualities make effective leaders. I see them in Obama: a sharp intellect, stiff spine and steady hand.

With more editorials like this, the Tar Heel State may indeed turn blue.

Earlier today, former Republican senator from North Carolina, Jesse Helms died at the age of 86. Helms, often a controversial figure, was one of the Republicans who led the expansion of the GOP base to included blue collar workers and especially evangelicals and other social conservatives. A staunch opponent of abortion and communism and a strong proponent of free trade and fighting the African AIDS epidemic, he was an important and powerful senator in his time.

May he rest in peace.

Obama has gained 2 points from the previous poll, while McCain has gained 1, which represents a net +1 gain for Obama.

Here are the numbers from previous months:
2/08 – McCain 46%, Obama 36%
4/08 – McCain 48%, Obama 39%
5/08 – McCain 44%, Obama 39%

So McCain’s lead has dwindled from 10 to 9 to 5 and now to 4. But you can’t ignore the fact that there are still 12% undecided in this poll (2% are for Bob Barr), and those folks could very well swing towards McCain since 41% of them are 41 and older.

However, when you look at the party breakdowns of those who remain undecided, 15% of Dems, 9% of Republicans and 12% of Independents say they haven’t made up their minds yet. So there are more voters who may traditional lean toward Obama because of party loyalty and discontent with current Republican leadership. And if John Edwards hits the campaign trail hard in his home state he may be able to help convince the Dems and Indys that they should vote for change.

Still, North Carolina seems to be a racially divided electorate…

Obama is still struggling to connect with white voters, garnering only 31% of their votes, although that is an improvement over May’s poll which had him at 27% among whites. Obama is receiving 87% of support of African-American voters.

Conclusion? North Carolina is definitely in play, at least as this point.

This weekend at the North Carolina GOP convention breakfast, Huckabee performed the Heimlich maneuver on Lt. Governor candidate Robert Pittenger who began choking while sitting next to Huckabee.

In all seriousness, praise goes out to Huckabee for quick action. In less seriousness, maybe this was all set up to prove Huckabee’s vice presidential qualifications?

After all, presidential choking has been a serious matter in the past. John McCain might want a man like Huckabee around – just in case.

I think that’s pretty obvious.

Miller made his decision after meeting with Obama in Washington today.

“Senator Obama understands that he has the chance not just to win the election this year, but to be a great president,” Miller wrote in his announcement.

So that means Obama leads in post Pennsylvania pickups 28 to 12.5, and the overall super totals are Clinton 273.5 and Obama 261.

Of note, some superdelegates have met with Obama and Hillary today and have remained undecided. But one is leaning towards Barack.

Total pickups after the jump…

Obama superdelegate pickups:
Brad Miller (NC), Representative – May 8, 2008
Jennifer McClellan (VA), DNC – May 7, 2008
Inola Henry (CA), DNC – May 7, 2008
Jerry Meek (NC), Dem Chairman – May 7, 2008
Jeanette Council (NC), DNC – May 7, 2008
Lauren Dugas Glover (MD), DNC Vice Chairman – May 5, 2008
Michael Cryor (MD), DNC Chairman – May 5, 2008
Kalyn Free (OK), DNC – May 5, 2008
Jaime Paulino (Guam), DNC & Territory Vice Chair – May 4, 2008
Parris Glendening (MD), Governor – May 3, 2008
Inez Tenenbaum (SC), DNC – May 3, 2008
Brian Colón (TX), DNC – May 3, 2008
Paul G. Kirk, Jr. (MA), DNC – May 2, 2008
John Patrick (TX), DNC – May 1, 2008
Barbara Flynn Currie (IL), DNC – May 1, 2008
Todd Stroger (IL), DNC – May 1, 2008
Richard M. Daley (IL), DNC – May 1, 2008
Joe Andrew (IN), DNC – May 1, 2008
Bruce Braley (IA), Representative – Apr 30, 2008
Lois Capps (CA), Representative – Apr 30, 2008
Baron Hill (IN), Representative – Apr 30, 2008
Ben Chandler (KY), Representative – Apr 29, 2008
Richard Machacek (IA), DNC – Apr 29, 2008
Jeff Bingaman (NM), Senator – Apr 28, 2008
Charlene Fernandez (AZ), DNC & State Vice Chair – Apr 26, 2008
David Wu (OR), Representative – Apr 24, 2008
Audra Ostergard (NE), DNC & State Vice Chair – Apr 23, 2008
Brad Henry (OK), Governor – Apr 23, 2008

Clinton superdelegate pickups:
Brad Ellsworth (IN), Representative – May 7, 2008
Heath Shuler (NC), Representative – May 7, 2008
Theresa Morelli (Dems Abroad), DNC May 5, 2008
Kathleen Kennedy Townsend (MD), Lt. Governor – May 3, 2008
Jaime A. Gonzalez Jr. (TX), DNC – May 2, 2008
Andrew Cuomo (NY), DNC – May 1, 2008
Thomas DiNapoli (NY), DNC – May 1, 2008
C. Virginia Field (NY), DNC – May 1, 2008
Carmen Arroyo (NY), DNC – May 1, 2008
John Olsen (CT), DNC – May 1, 2008
Luisette Cabanas (PR), DNC & Territory Vice Chair – Apr 30, 2008
William George (PA), DNC – Apr 30, 2008
Ike Skelton (MO), Representative, Apr 29, 2008
Mike Easley (NC), Governor – Apr 28, 2008
Kathy Sullivan (NH), Add-On – Apr 26, 2008
John Tanner (TN), Representative – Apr 23, 2008

Clinton superdelegate losses:
Jennifer McClellan (VA), DNC – May 7, 2008
Arlene P. Bordallo (Guam), DNC & Former Territory Vice Chair- May 4, 2008
Joe Andrew (IN), DNC – May 1, 2008

Well, he was right…

Hillary Clinton’s inner circle now fears a stinging defeat is likely in North Carolina.

“Look, we worked hard and gave it our best shot, but the demographics, well, they are what they are,” a top campaign source explained to the DRUDGE REPORT as voting began Tuesday morning.

The campaign now believes a 15 point loss, or more, would not be surprising. Her team will work hard throughout the day to lower all expectations in North Carolina.

It is what it is, but he was also within two points on Pennsylvania.

Here’s the raw, and you can see I rounded these numbers up.
Obama – 888,979 - 56.7%
Clinton – 655,482 – 41.8%
No Pref- 22,626 – 1%

Total Vote – 1,567,087

I think he beat nearly all the pollsters projections, although Zogby was the closest that I can see.