This Tuesday, Joe Biden will be traveling to a solar panel manufacturer near Toledo, Ohio to put his money where his mouth is. Willard & Kelsey Solar Group just received $10 Million from the Economic Stimulus Plan to create up to 3,500 new jobs making thin photo-voltaic cells for residential and commercial use.  VP Biden will tour the facility at 10 AM and hold a middle class task force meeting titled “Promoting American Manufacturing in the 21st Century” afterwards. He’ll discuss the state of the manufacturing industry, how the administration is supporting manufacturing communities presently and what they have planned for the future.

Read more Quotes about Father’s Day and Plans for Michigan here!

In 2008, Republicans had a difficult time finding candidates who could compete for open seats. This time around, the party is better prepared. According to Politico, the names we should be paying attention to are former state House Speaker Marco Rubio in Florida, former U.S. House Minority Whip Roy Blunt in Missouri and former Rep. Rob Portman in Ohio. All three men have significant government experience, strong fund-raising bases and are generally well liked.

Adding to Republican prospects is the fact that, if either of these men fail to grab the nomination, each state has other potential candidates who could compete well on a state-wide level.

Democrats also have strong prospects in these three states and will undoubtedly do everything they can to capture the seats and move that much closer to a Senate super-majority. Of course, the problem for Democrats is swing states have a habit of swinging. If the state of the nation does not improve by 2010, voters may turn against the Democrats. If they do, Republicans look surprisingly well-positioned to retain their seats in Florida, Missouri and Ohio.

With newfound bailout money in their wallets, big banks have been rushing to gobble up smaller ones. At the center of these mergers is the Treasury Department, led by Goldman Sachs alums Henry Paulson and Neel Kashkari (you might remember his Ferrari, recently profiled on Gawker.) While neglecting struggling homeowners, they have created major incentives for widespread bank consolidation, which could lead to a host of new problems. And, as members of Congress recently noted, Treasury officials seem to be making the rules up as they go.

http://www.americannewsproject.com/videos/181

Follow Danielle’s reporting on twitter.

Follow Lagan’s reporting on twitter.

CBS radio just called it. The path to 270 for McCain is pretty much done.

20 electoral votes for Obama.

Moving on…

More “poll of polls” numbers suggest Obama could capture some reliably red states.

Nevada…

CNN’s new Nevada Poll of Polls shows Obama leading McCain by 6 points, 49% to 43%; CNN’s last Nevada Poll of Polls –- released October 31 –- showed Obama leading McCain by 7 points.

North Carolina…

Obama is leading McCain by 2 points, 49% to 47%; CNN’s last North Carolina Poll of Polls –- released October 31 –- showed Obama leading McCain by 4 points, 50 percent to 46 percent.

Ohio…

the Democratic nominee leading the Republican nominee by 4 points, 49% to 45%; CNN’s last Ohio Poll of Polls –- released October 31 –- showed Obama leading McCain by 5 points.

Earlier I said that any state where Obama was below 50% was a problem for him. However, in Nevada I think there’s an exception, especially because McCain is at 43%. I just don’t think it’s realistic that he’ll get a 7% swing.

But in Ohio and North Carolina? Well, if you’re an Obama fan, I wouldn’t count on either of those going blue this election. But the good news is that he doesn’t need them. Sure, it would be nice to run up the score, but a win is a win and Obama is focused on getting above 270 and that’s it.

More as it develops…

First, the Obama leads…

Florida: Obama +2
Obama: 47%
McCain: 45%

Virginia: Obama +3
Obama: 47%
McCain: 44%

Pennsylvania: Obama +4
Obama: 47%
McCain: 43%

Nevada: Obama +4
Obama: 47%
McCain: 43%

Colorado Obama +5
Obama: 49%
McCain: 44%

And then, the McCain leads…

Missouri: McCain +1
McCain: 47%
Obama: 46%

Ohio: McCain +2
McCain: 47%
Obama: 45%

North Carolina: McCain +3
McCain: 49%
Obama: 46%

And that’s it. These are the last polls from NBC before the election.

Chuck Todd has his take…

One of the better state Republican parties is right here in the Buckeye State; it’s why so many of us aren’t ready to count McCain out yet in Ohio. The Republican machine is a good one. The Democrats had a terrible state organization here before 2004 but have since put together a very impressive operation. If Ohio does go south on McCain, he could take a couple of House seats down with him, giving the Democrats control of that House delegation.

Still, it’s hard to ignore the momentum Obama has had in recent polling.

More as it develops…

Quinnipiac thinks it’s too little too late for McCain in Ohio and Pennsylvania, but thinks he could pull it off in Florida. I still don’t think Obama can pull Ohio off, but I’m willing to be wrong. :-)

The numbers and cross tabs…

Florida: Obama +2
Obama: 47%
McCain: 45%
(Obama was ahead by 5)

Among those who say they already have voted in Florida, Obama leads 58 – 34 percent.

Looking at all Florida likely voters, men go to McCain 49 – 44 percent. Women back Obama 50 – 42 percent. The Republican leads 53 – 40 percent among white voters, 72 – 21 percent among evangelical Christians and 53 – 42 percent among Catholics. The Democrat leads 75 – 20 percent among Jews and 56 – 39 percent among voters 18 – 34 years old. Voters 35 to 54 split 46 – 46 percent, and voters over 55 go 47 percent for McCain and 45 percent for Obama.

Ohio: Obama +9
Obama: 51%
McCain: 42%
(Obama was ahead by 14)

Obama leads 57 – 31 percent among those who already have voted in Ohio.

Among all Ohio likely voters, the Democrat leads 55 – 36 percent among women. McCain gets 48 percent of men to Obama’s 45 percent. White voters split with 47 percent for McCain and 46 percent for Obama. Black voters back Obama 89 – 1 percent. The Democrat leads 59 – 36 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old, while voters 35 to 54 split with 47 percent for McCain and 46 percent for Obama. Voters over 55 go Democratic 50 – 40 percent.

Pennsylvania: Obama +12
Obama: 53%
McCain: 41%
(Obama was ahead by 13)

Obama leads 59 – 35 percent with women, while men back McCain by a narrow 49 – 46 percent. White voters split with 48 percent for Obama and 47 percent for McCain. Black voters back Obama 95 – 2 percent. He also leads 61 – 36 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old, 51 – 43 percent among voters 35 to 54 years old and 51 – 42 percent among voters over 55.

More as it develops…

Good signs on the state level (.pdf), even if Obama’s numbers are slipping a bit nationally in the past couple days.

Colorado: Obama +9
Obama: 50%
McCain: 41%

Florida: Obama + 2
Obama: 45%
McCain: 43%

Nevada: Obama +12
Obama: 52%
McCain: 40%

New Hampshire: Obama +18
Obama: 55%
McCain: 37%

North Carolina: Obama +2
Obama: 48%
McCain: 46%

Ohio: Obama +7
Obama: 48%
McCain: 41%

Pennsylvania: Obama +12
Obama: 52%
McCain: 40%

Virginia: Obama + 7
Obama: 49%
McCain: 42%

My prediction? Any state where there’s a margin of 5 or less, he’ll lose. So that means Florida and North Carolina probably won’t turn out in Obama’s favor come election day. I really think undecideds will start to break 2 to 1 for McCain because they’re just nervous that Obama will tax the hell out of them.

And even though Obama leads by 7 in Ohio, I also have my doubts he’ll take it. I just don’t think there are enough early votes there to swing it.

But all the rest? Virginia, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Nevada and New Hampshire are Obama’s.

What do you think?

Some good news for McCain today, but considering he has pulled out of Colorado in favor of Pennsylvania, this poll also surfaces some cold, hard truths about his chances to win.

Ohio: McCain +3
McCain 48%
Obama 45%

Florida: McCain +2
McCain 48%
Obama 46%

Pennsylvania: Obama +7
Obama 50%
McCain 43%

While Obama has had a lot of great polling these past few days, Strategic Vision usually has decent numbers so these shouldn’t be discounted. However, my gut tells me that you should add 3 points to each of these polls. So Ohio would be tied, Obama would be ahead by 1 in Florida and he’d be up by 10 in Pennsylvania.

Is that the same sense you’d have?

More numbers bring more bad news for McCain.

Now, Big Ten polls the eight states where the Big Ten school are, so some of them (Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota) I’m not going to even bother showing since they’re safely blue.

Instead, I’ll focus on four McCain has been campaigning in recently.

Indiana: +10
Obama 51%
McCain 41%

Ohio: Obama + 12
Obama 53%
McCain 41%

Pennsylvania: Obama +11
Obama 52%
McCain 41%

Wisconsin: Obama +13
Obama 53%
McCain 40%

So first Quinnipiac shows Obama up 14% in Ohio, and now this poll shows him up 12%?

And up +10 in Indiana?

What’s more, compare these numbers to what Big Ten had in mid-September…

The eight states home to the 11 universities in the Big Ten conference were key battlegrounds in the 2004 election, and the results of the poll show that they are among the most competitive in the country and are likely to be pivotal in determining the election outcome.

The surveys show a tight race in all of the Big Ten states except for Obama’s home state of Illinois, where he holds a 16-point lead over McCain. The two candidates are tied in Iowa and Pennsylvania, and Obama has just a one-point lead in Ohio and Wisconsin. McCain is ahead in just one state — Indiana — where he leads by 4 percentage points.

Are we seeing a big shift in the electorate?

12 days till it’s over, and the numbers keep looking more and more favorable for Obama.

Florida: Obama +5
Obama 49%
McCain 44%

Ohio: Obama + 14
Obama 52%
McCain 38%

Pennsylvania: Obama +13
Obama 53%
McCain 40%

The biggest surprise here is Ohio, which I think is much closer than this 14% spread. In fact, I’d be surprised if Obama takes it this time around.

But maybe this has something to do with the numbers in Ohio…

Bush’s Approval Ratings
Florida: 27% approve, 66% disapprove
Ohio: 22% approve, 72% disapprove
Pennsylvania: 21% approve, 73% disapprove

Like it or not, this campaign is as much about rebuking Bush’s policies as they are affirming Obama’s message. But that may be enough for a landslide.

The only good news here for McCain is that West Virginia is still in his corner. Still, that’s only a single digit lead and these are all states that Bush carried in 2004.

Nevada: +5 Obama
Obama 51%
McCain 46%

North Carolina: +4 Obama
Obama 51%
McCain 47%

Ohio: +4 Obama
Obama 50%
McCain 46%

Virginia: +10 Obama
Obama 54%
McCain 44%

West Virginia: +9 McCain
McCain 53%
Obama 44%

Earlier in the day I mentioned a factoid about North Carolina early voting favoring Dems over Repubs, 61% to 22%, so I think NC is very much in play. Also, I think Virginia is a lock for Obama. Nevada is getting close to being that too, but it’s probably going to be a squeaker that goes blue.

But Ohio? I just don’t think it’ll go blue this season. Not enough new voters there and early voting hasn’t turned out that well for the Dems. Also, West Virginia just isn’t close enough at this point for Obama to have the momentum to sweep through there.

Still, 3 out of 5 would really start turning this into landslide territory on November 4th.

More as it develops…

Florida
Obama 51, McCain 46
Week ago: Obama 52, McCain 45)

Missouri
Obama 50, McCain 47
Last week: Obama 50, McCain 47

North Carolina
Obama 48, McCain 48
Last week: Obama 49, McCain 48

Ohio
Obama 49, McCain 47
Last week: McCain 48, Obama 47

Virginia
Obama 50, McCain 47
Last week: Obama 50, McCain 48

By the way, 1000 likely voters were polled in each state, and the MOE is +/- 3.

New Hampshire:
Obama 53%, McCain 45%
Obama 51%, McCain 43%, Barr 3%, Nader 1%

Wisconsin:
Obama 51%, McCain 46%
Obama 50%, McCain 42%, Nader 4%, Barr 1%

Ohio:
Obama 50%, McCain 47%
Obama 48%, McCain 45%, Nader 3%, Barr 2%

North Carolina:
Obama 49%, McCain 49%
Obama 49%, McCain 48%, Barr 2%

Indiana:
McCain 51%, Obama 46%
McCain 48%, Obama 46%, Barr 5%

Looks like Barr is really hurting McCain in Indiana, and with such discontent for Republicans this year, I can definitely see more people casting their ballots for the Libertarian candidate.

Some more analysis…

On the eve of the penultimate presidential debate, a new TIME/CNN poll shows John McCain still struggling in states won by George W. Bush in 2004, a sign that last week’s vice presidential debate had little effect on voter opinion. [...]

Last week, the McCain campaign reacted to a polling downturn by shuttering its operation in the state of Michigan and redistributing staff to Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Maine, where electoral votes are distributed by congressional district. In a conference call last week, Mike DuHaime, the McCain campaign’s political director, acknowledged that the national mood and Obama’s deep pockets had put previously solid Republican states like Indiana in play.

“I do think just the overall environment right now that we face is one of the worst environments for any Republican in probably 35 years,” DuHaime said. “Any time you have that, you have states move within that margin.”

The big question now, besides Ayers, Rezko and Wright…what else does McCain have to drive up Obama’s negatives? And can he even accomplish that with so much of the electorate having already made up their minds.

Colorado
Obama: 51
McCain: 45

Florida
Obama: 52
McCain: 45

Missouri
Obama: 50
McCain: 47

Ohio
McCain: 48
Obama: 47

Virginia
Obama: 50
McCain: 48

Earlier I shared some electoral projections that hinted at an Obama blowout, and now I have two sets of swing state polls that provide even more good news for his camp.

The key here is that Obama has crossed the 50% threshold in most of these polls with just a little more than a month to go. That’s incredibly significant since, traditionally, once a candidate crosses that 50% line it’s hard for the challenger to make up enough ground to beat them. It’s certainly not impossible, but it’s one hell of an uphill battle.

First Quinnipiac shows big gains for Obama in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania:

Florida: Obama 51%, McCain 43%

Ohio: Obama 50%, McCain 42%

Pennsylvania: Obama 54%, McCain 39%

Then CNN/TIME polling shows similar trends…

Florida: Obama 51%, McCain 47%

Minnesota: Obama 54%, McCain 43%

Missouri: Obama 49%, McCain 48%

Nevada: Obama 51%, McCain 47%

Virginia: Obama 53%, McCain 44%

Of note, McCain was never expected to win either Minnesota or Pennsylvania, but they have been closer this election season. Now they seem to be completely out of reach.

Also, a surprise Obama pickup could be Missouri, which was seen as a near gimme for McCain. So if the Illinois senator actually does capture the POTUS and wins the Show-Me state in a squeaker (as he did in the primaries against Hillary), Missouri will continue its streak of picking the right candidate in every single election in the past 100 years except for one.

More and more states are allowing early voting and I think it’s great. Anything that can get people to the ballot box should be encouraged, promoted and celebrated.

From AP:

In the state that may again determine the presidency, voters started casting ballots Tuesday as Barack Obama struggles to thwart a John McCain victory in Ohio four years after it tipped the election to President Bush.

Both candidates visit often while spending millions of dollars flooding TV and radio with advertisements, mailboxes with literature and even voicemail with automated phone calls to get supporters to the polls, particularly during the one-week window in which people can register and vote in one swoop.

Early participation appeared light; officials in the state’s largest counties that are home to Cleveland, Cincinnati, Toledo and Dayton each reported several hundred ballots cast by afternoon. Many of those who voted cited convenience.

“I wanted to avoid the traffic and the people,” said Charlene Glass, 49, of Cleveland Heights. A first-time voter, she backed Obama and expressed her enthusiasm for a black candidate. In Dayton, Terri Bell, 49, chose McCain because of his experience and his military service. “I have a lot on my plate. I wanted to do this early,” she said.

However, I would like to point out that early absentee voting started on September 23rd in Missouri.

I’m just saying…

Ohio is still working out the kinks but, most likely, those who register in that week will receive absentee ballots which they can cast immediately or later. The votes will be counted after polls close on election day.

As you might expect, Republicans are crying foul, complaining that the loophole creates the opportunity for massive voter fraud and pointing out that the voting window is being implemented in only some counties, typically urban ones with college campuses. Republicans are considering a lawsuit.

Now, I’m sure if Ohio had accidentally created a loophole that could increase the votes cast by old white veterans, Republicans would not have a problem. Their main complaint seems to be that Obama will get more votes, not that the window is inherently unfair. Voter fraud is a possibility with any system and as long as Ohio manages this vote using the same rules that apply to all other absentee voting, I don’t see where it’s a problem.

However, shouldn’t the voting window be available in all counties? I suspect it isn’t scheduled to be because more rural counties lack the voting infrastructure to handle the window, but that really shouldn’t be an excuse. You can’t offer voting to one part of a state and not another without being subject to claims of disenfranchising voters. I suspect, if Republican sue, Ohio will have to correct that discrepancy. But, otherwise, it seems like Obama is going to get a nice little boost from this odd loophole.

As in Florida, this lead is within the margin of error, so the two are technically tied. Last month, Obama lead by 6, 48% to 42%.

The demographic details…

• Obama gets 47 percent of Ohio women likely voters, to McCain’s 44 percent.
• Men split with 46 percent for Obama and 45 percent for McCain.
• White voters back McCain 49 – 42 percent.
• Obama sweeps black voters 89 – 2 percent.
• The Democrat also leads 57 – 35 percent among voters 18 to 34.
• Obama also leads 48 – 44 percent among voters 35 to 54.
• McCain leads 48 – 41 percent among voters over 55.

Meanwhile, Pollster shows Obama just starting to pull away, but this trend could easily turn around.

More next month…