Obama - 48%
McCain - 46%
Some of the other numbers…
Gender: Female (53% of voters)
Obama - 59%
McCain - 35%
Gender: Male (47% of voters)
McCain - 58%
Obama - 35%
Age: 18 to 49 (55% of voters)
Obama - 52%
McCain - 41%
Age: 50+ (45% of voters)
McCain - 52%
Obama - 42%
No real surprise why these guys are essentially tied, and I can’t think [...]

McCain - 44%
Obama - 43%
3rd Party - 7%
Undeci’ds - 7%
Some demo info…

McCain leads 45 to 42 among men, but he’s tied with Obama 43 to 43 among women.

79% of Republicans support McCain, while 73% of Democrats support Obama.

McCain viewed more favorably among moderates by 44 to 38.

Yesterday I reported that Quinnipiac polling found Obama with [...]

Obama - 48%
McCain - 42%
Just yesterday, Public Policy Polling released a poll that found Obama leading by 11%. Personally, I’m going to trust Quinnipiac’s numbers for the time being.
The good news from this poll for Obama?

He holds a 12 point lead among women
He splits men and white, working class voters evenly with McCain
More McCain supporters [...]

Obama - 50%
McCain - 39%
Public Policy Polling showed Obama trailing McCain by 8 points (49 to 41) back in March during the Jeremiah Wright controversy, but in roughly 3 months he’s had a nearly 20 point swing?
PPP explains that their party ID in Ohio is broken out as “55% Democratic, 30% Republican, and 15% other.” [...]

In yet another sign that the Obama camp is really looking to remix the electoral map, “must win” status is being shifted from the traditional bellwethers to some that may surprise you.
From AP:
In a private pitch late last week to donors and former supporters of Hillary Rodham Clinton, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe outlined several [...]

Well, there’s one name off the list…
Asked on NPR’s “All Things Considered” if he is auditioning to be Obama’s running mate, Strickland said, “Absolutely not. If drafted I will not run, nominated I will not accept and if elected I will not serve. So, I don’t know how more crystal clear I can be.”
And there [...]

A Quinnipiac University poll found some disturbing news for Barack Obama. Currently, Obama trails John McCain in Florida and Ohio polls by 4-5 percentage points. By itself, the numbers aren’t too bad. But here’s the kicker. The same poll showed Hillary Clinton leading John McCain in those two swing states by 7 percentage points.
In fact, [...]

CQ has an interesting story…
The 14 smallest states and six U.S. territories “pod” would always vote first, but no earlier than the third week of February in presidential election years.
The other three pods — comprising nine, 16 and seven states — would rotate their voting positions every four years. The ordering of the pods [...]

Personally, I never thought Rush had this much pull, but if we’re talking about 60,000 people here or 80,000 people there, it begins to make sense. Not a lot of voters are needed to really swing these things or make them closer than they would have been. And closing the gap even by 5% is [...]

The nets finally call it for her.
We won’t know how badly she beat Barack until late into the night, but from all indications it’ll be by more than 10% and that bodes well for picking up delegates.
And yes, this is good news for the Clinton camp, but if she can’t pull it out in [...]

Actually I know the answer to this one, or at least I think I do.
It’s because the polls haven’t closed yet and it’s possible they’ll stay open quite late in some parts of the weather beaten state.
But right now, with 21% reporting, she’s up 59% to 39%. I don’t see how Obama can make [...]

From CNN:
Clinton holds roughly a 10-point advantage over Obama among those in Ohio who decided who to vote for in the last three days. Among those voters who decided before that, Clinton and Obama are split.
In Texas, Clinton holds even a larger advantage among late deciders. Those who decided in the last three days [...]

From CNN:
(CNN) — In what may be bad news for Clinton, Democrats across all four states overwhelmingly say they want super delegates to vote based on which candidate finishes ahead in the pledged delegate count at the end of the primary season.
Majorities of Democrats in Texas (62 percent), Ohio (61 percent), Rhode Island (57 percent) [...]

The weather is CRAZY bad tonight in Ohio. Sleet on top of ice on top of more ice. It’s incredibly unsafe right now, and that could really hurt the turnout.
From Politico:
Some polling locations in Cleveland — which is expected to be Obama Country — are staying open late tonight to accommodate the high turnout, Ohio [...]

Alter’s problem is not math. It is word comprehension. The problem with his thesis is that he conflates a lead in pledged delegates with “the will of the people”. The pledged delegate total is many things, but the one thing it is not, is the “will of the people”.

Josh Marshall has the scoop…
I’m looking at the second wave of exit polls. They show an Obama blowout in Vermont, which was entirely expected and basically dead even in Texas, Ohio and Rhode Island, the latter two of which would be pretty substantial surprises.
But again, these are exit polls, and they haven’t been incredibly reliable [...]

From Pollster come the trends.
First, Texas…

To me, this shows the “It’s 3 a.m.” ad is working, even though others say it has little effect on undecideds. Personally, I do think the Texas contest favors Obama because of the popular vote/caucus mix, and I think that’s why he’s going to be in Texas tomorrow night.
Now, Ohio…

It’d [...]

What else can one make from this remark about the March 4th contests?
Meanwhile, Bill Richardson said on Face The Nation today that it’s important for the party to unify behind a nominee soon, rather than continue to have a negative campaign that will further divide the party for the general election against John McCain.
“I just [...]

The Story is all that matters to her campaign now. The Story that Clinton wins all the big states except Illinois. The Story that momentum has shifted. The Story that Hillary Clinton is the new “comeback kid“. The Story is all that is needed to provide political cover for the superdelegates to vote for Clinton at the convention.

Me thinks she thinks we be dumb…
Senator Obama has campaigned hard in these states. He has spent time meeting editorial boards, courting endorsers, holding rallies, and - of course - making speeches.
If he cannot win all of these states with all this effort, there’s a problem.
Should Senator Obama fail to score decisive victories with all [...]