Personally, I hope they don’t get any more seats and are forced to work across the aisle for moderate Republicans, but with a recount about to happen in Minnesota, a run off almost certain in Georgia and the race in Alaska still undecided, they could actually pull it off.

Still, the likelihood that they get all 3 of these is very unlikely.

More as it develops…

From The Scorecard:

[Joel] Haugen, a businessman and Army veteran, is running an uphill campaign in a district Wu has held onto against good Republican challengers. So instead of embracing fellow Republicans in a state that’s moving increasingly left, Haugen is falling in line with Obama, and he’s is listed on State House Speaker Jeff Merkley’s website as a backer; Merkley is the Democratic nominee against Senator Gordon Smith.

The endorsements aren’t something Haugen is hiding. “We certainly understand why people are so surprised to see” Haugen backing Obama, the campaign writes on its website, citing the Democrat’s positions on foreign policy and the economy over John McCain’s.

I wonder who many Dems want to support McCain but can’t come out and say so? Can you think of any who might fit that bill?

Maybe that’s why Republican Gordon Smith is using the exact opposite tactic in his re-election bid.

The Obama campaign had this to say (via TPM):

“Barack Obama has a long record of bipartisan accomplishment and we appreciate that it is respected by his Democratic and Republican colleagues in the Senate. But in this race, Oregonians should know that Barack Obama supports Jeff Merkley for Senate. Merkley will help Obama bring about the fundamental change we need in Washington,” said Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton.

Perhaps this is just a one time thing, but it’ll be interesting to see if any ads get made by Dems touting cooperation with McCain. Honestly, it would be a welcome change from the scare tactic ads we’ve seen pop up in recent months.

Vote Percentage
Obama – 59%
Clinton – 41%

Popular Vote Totals
Obama – 347,852
Clinton – 245,211

Pledged Delegates
Obama – 29
Clinton – 21

What the following numbers show is Obama actually overperformed last night, because many polls had him leading by high single digits in the closing days. However, Hillary really stomped him in Kentucky, beating these margins by more than double in every case.

We’ll have more numbers soon.

Clinton will win big in Kentucky, possibly by 30 to 35 points.

Obama will win big in Oregon, possibly by 10 to 15 points.

So that’s the common wisdom right now.

Will the voters surprise us?

Tune in tonight!

From Politico:

At the heart of the bid to steer reporters from the he-will-declare-victory narrative is a recognition that Clinton, who trails by a historically small margin, claims millions of supporters who don’t want her unceremoniously pushed out of the race. And the Democratic party views its chances in November as dependent upon its ability to reunite these opposing camps.

“Right now, it is all about unifying the party,” said Peter Fenn, a Democratic strategist unaffiliated with either campaign. “This election should be won by the Democrats if the Democrats unite behind a candidate. The one hope that McCain has is if the party splits. For Obama, who has so far been very concerned about antagonizing Clinton’s supporters, you are walking a fine line.”

Yes, better to just keep criss-crossing the country and running against John McCain.

Then, after June 3rd, the superdelegates will coalesce even more around Obama…who still leads in post-PA pickups by a margin of nearly 5 to 1 at this point.

And then Hillary can do as she has promised…to get behind Obama and fight for him with all she has. It’ll be interesting to see if that really happens…

He can definitely put butts in seats…

Per the Obama campaign, 75,000 people (60,000 in the gates and 15,000 outside of them) turned out in Portland to hear Obama speak there this afternoon — making it the largest Obama crowd to date.

Duane Bray, the battalion chief with Portland Fire and Rescue, validated that crowd estimate, the campaign says.

There’s no doubt about it, that’s one massive crowd.

No sooner do I write the post about Hillary below then I see another pickup for Obama.

I mentioned in the previous post that somebody defected to him today, and he added Rep. Peter DeFazio from Oregon, which is an important pickup before that state’s primary…

DeFazio told the Oregonian Thursday evening that Obama, who will begin a two-day campaign trip to the state Friday morning, “represents our best chance of winning in November.”

“We must not allow Senator McCain to continue the failures of the Bush foreign policy, war in Iraq and disastrous economic policies,” DeFazio added.

The post-Pennsylvania delegate pickup race has Obama leading 31 to 12.5, with the grand totals being Clinton 273.5, Obama – 263.

Total pickups after the jump…

Obama superdelegate pickups:
Peter DeFazio (OR), Representative – May 9, 2008
Donald Payne (NJ), Representative – May 9, 2008
Rick Larsen (WA), Representative – May 8, 2008
Brad Miller (NC), Representative – May 8, 2008
Jennifer McClellan (VA), DNC – May 7, 2008
Inola Henry (CA), DNC – May 7, 2008
Jerry Meek (NC), Dem Chairman – May 7, 2008
Jeanette Council (NC), DNC – May 7, 2008
Lauren Dugas Glover (MD), DNC Vice Chairman – May 5, 2008
Michael Cryor (MD), DNC Chairman – May 5, 2008
Kalyn Free (OK), DNC – May 5, 2008
Jaime Paulino (Guam), DNC & Territory Vice Chair – May 4, 2008
Parris Glendening (MD), Governor – May 3, 2008
Inez Tenenbaum (SC), DNC – May 3, 2008
Brian Colón (TX), DNC – May 3, 2008
Paul G. Kirk, Jr. (MA), DNC – May 2, 2008
John Patrick (TX), DNC – May 1, 2008
Barbara Flynn Currie (IL), DNC – May 1, 2008
Todd Stroger (IL), DNC – May 1, 2008
Richard M. Daley (IL), DNC – May 1, 2008
Joe Andrew (IN), DNC – May 1, 2008
Bruce Braley (IA), Representative – Apr 30, 2008
Lois Capps (CA), Representative – Apr 30, 2008
Baron Hill (IN), Representative – Apr 30, 2008
Ben Chandler (KY), Representative – Apr 29, 2008
Richard Machacek (IA), DNC – Apr 29, 2008
Jeff Bingaman (NM), Senator – Apr 28, 2008
Charlene Fernandez (AZ), DNC & State Vice Chair – Apr 26, 2008
David Wu (OR), Representative – Apr 24, 2008
Audra Ostergard (NE), DNC & State Vice Chair – Apr 23, 2008
Brad Henry (OK), Governor – Apr 23, 2008

Clinton superdelegate pickups:
Chris Carney (PA), Representative – May 9, 2008
Brad Ellsworth (IN), Representative – May 7, 2008
Heath Shuler (NC), Representative – May 7, 2008
Theresa Morelli (Dems Abroad), DNC May 5, 2008
Kathleen Kennedy Townsend (MD), Lt. Governor – May 3, 2008
Jaime A. Gonzalez Jr. (TX), DNC – May 2, 2008
Andrew Cuomo (NY), DNC – May 1, 2008
Thomas DiNapoli (NY), DNC – May 1, 2008
C. Virginia Field (NY), DNC – May 1, 2008
Carmen Arroyo (NY), DNC – May 1, 2008
John Olsen (CT), DNC – May 1, 2008
Luisette Cabanas (PR), DNC & Territory Vice Chair – Apr 30, 2008
William George (PA), DNC – Apr 30, 2008
Ike Skelton (MO), Representative, Apr 29, 2008
Mike Easley (NC), Governor – Apr 28, 2008
Kathy Sullivan (NH), Add-On – Apr 26, 2008
John Tanner (TN), Representative – Apr 23, 2008

Clinton superdelegate losses:
Donald Payne (NJ), Representative – May 9, 2008
Jennifer McClellan (VA), DNC – May 7, 2008
Arlene P. Bordallo (Guam), DNC & Former Territory Vice Chair- May 4, 2008
Joe Andrew (IN), DNC – May 1, 2008

Here are the details…

Clinton has a statistically insignificant lead among senior citizens while Obama leads among younger voters. Obama does best among upper income voters while Clinton’s strongest support comes from those who earn less than $40,000 annually.

Obama is viewed favorably by 78% of the state’s Likely Primary Voters, Clinton by 71%. Fifty percent (50%) of Obama voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton while 56% of Clinton voters hold a positive view of Obama.

A lot of attention will be shifting to the Beaver State after next Tuesday because it’ll likely be the only one Obama has a chance of winning next. Kentucky and West Virginia are in the bag for Hillary in the same way Mississippi went for Obama. So if she can close the gap in Oregon, expect the media to make a lot of hay about it.

More as it develops…

The details…

These results, based on April 24-26 polling, are the second report in which all interviews have been conducted after Clinton’s Tuesday Pennsylvania primary win, and suggest that Democratic voters are — for the moment at least — divided right down the middle as to which candidate they most want to represent their party in November’s general election. Obama led the race for a number of days prior to Pennsylvania.

Clinton has now erased his lead, but so far has not been able to translate her primary win — and the subsequent media coverage of her “never say die” campaigning — into a lead of her own. The close nature of the race at this point gives even more importance to the outcome of the North Carolina and Indiana primaries on May 6.

So what happens if she wins Indiana and he wins North Carolina? Well, her chances would be even bleaker. This isn’t “Rah-Rah Obama!!!” stuff. This is just simple math and it has been since after Texas and Ohio. In order to catch up in pledged delegates and popular vote she has to win big (15% and higher) in every single contest from here on out.

So I just want to make sure this is clear to everybody because if you’re buying this line that she can win just by pulling out single digit victories in states she was projected to win anyway, you’re fooling yourself. She needs upsets in North Carolina and Oregon, and she needs them to be big.

More as it develops…