U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak, trying to knock off a veteran Democratic incumbent senator in the primary, will get an endorsement Monday from somebody who succeeded in doing just that: Connecticut’s Ned Lamont.

Lamont defeated Sen. Joseph Lieberman in the 2006 Democratic primary, largely by running against the Iraq war and Lieberman’s support of the Bush administration’s war policy. But Lamont did not win the general election. After losing the nomination, Lieberman ran as an independent in the fall, defeating Lamont and the Republican nominee.

Sources close to the Sestak campaign confirmed that Lamont is the “mystery endorser” it announced would be coming to Independence Hall Monday.

The strange thing here is that there are some eerie parallels to the Ned Lamont versus Joe Lieberman versus Republican Dude** campaign that was waged in 2006.

B-Diddy [a conservative contributor at my site] and I have talked about this before (because we are both from Pennsylvania). Take a walk down Hypothetical Lane with me here, won’t you?

What happens if (when?) Arlen Specter gets beaten by Joe Sestak in the Pennsylvania Democratic Senatorial primary election? The answer is simple, or at least obvious: Specter switches his party affiliation (again) to Independent — a la Joe Lieberman in the Connecticut Senatorial election in 2006.

After Senator Specter puts an ‘I’ after his name for the general election, we’ll have a three-way-race between Sestak (the Democrat), Pat Toomey (the Republican) and good ole Arlen, fresh off of the Independent Express.

The question then becomes more complex; will Specter be able to defeat a Democrat who vanquished him in the primary as well as a Republican challenger? Things will indeed get interesting if it comes to this.

If all of the above indeed comes to fruition, Specter will have a rough time defending his multiple party-switcharoos. He started as a Democrat, switched to a Republican in 1965 when he ran for District Attorney in Philadelphia. In April of this year Specter returned to the Democratic party saying that he found himself “increasingly at odds with the Republican philosophy”. If he were to change (yet again) to Independent, he will be all-but-writing the attack ads for his political opponents.

Or, as I have suggested before, if Senator Specter loses the primary next spring, perhaps it is simply time for him to hang up his proverbial spurs. Personally, I don’t mind Specter (except for all of the party-swapping). He is a moderate Republican Democrat, and I usually find myself gravitating toward politicians that sit somewhere in the middle of the road. However, Specter has indeed had a looooong career in Pennsylvania politics. Maybe we need some fresh blood in there to replace him…

** does anyone remember the Republican candidate’s name from that election? Yeah, I had to Google it — the guy’s name is Alan Schlesinger.

If you want to call it “fickle” to leave the two-party system behind in favor creating a new political culture, call me fickle!

• 2010: Fight for fickle kids (By: Eamon Javers, Politico) Stanford University political science professor Morris Fiorina is convinced that both political parties haven’t yet grasped the scale of the change that’s happening in society. Republicans, he said, made the mistake of assuming that the divisions they exploited in the 2000-2004 elections were much deeper and more durable than they actually were — and were shocked by vote swings in 2006 and 2008 that would have seemed inconceivable in 2004. Not to mention, he said, “the emergence of Obama out of nowhere.”

PENNSYLVANIA

Independent-turned-Democrat Joe Sestak plans to challenge veteran Republican-turned Democrat Sen. Arlen Specter in the 2010 Pennsylvania Democratic primary.

• Senate candidates from opposite sides use same strategy against Specter (By Reid Wilson, The Hill) Whether it is the outlier result of a single poll or the harbinger of inroads to come, Toomey actually leads Specter by a 46-42 percent margin among independent voters in a Quinnipiac University survey. The poll was conducted July 14-19.
• Sestak ready to announce he’ll take on Specter (By Thomas Fitzgerald, Philadelphia Inquirer)
• Sestak Fires Back: Dem. Specter Makes Republican Swift Boat Attacks On Dem. Military Veterans (By Brian Beutler, TPM, July 9, 2009)

NEW JERSEY

Gov race: Dem Corzine vs. Repub Christie vs. independent Daggett

• NJ Gov: Internal (D) Poll Shows Corzine Down 7 (RealClearPolitics)
• Christie maintains lead over Corzine in poll (By Cynthia Burton, Philadelphia Inquirer) independent candidate Chris Daggett took 4 percent

NEW YORK

Special elections in NY are nonpartisan and therefore allow everyone to vote regardless of registration. They favor insurgents and independent candidates.

Goo-Goos To Paterson: Don’t Call 38th AD Special Election (Liz Benjamin, Daily News/Daily Politics)

For more independent news, see The Hankster, where the independents are…

I suppose it’s never too early to start talking about races in 2010, and this race presents many Dems with a problem. Support the moderate (yet aging) Specter because he switched parties, or back a young up and comer?

Regardless, it’s becoming obvious that Sestak will run in the Democratic primary…

Sestak has interviewed a number of people who would work for his statewide communications operation and online outreach effort, and has talked to candidates for his field operation, the Democrat says.

Meanwhile, three chief media consultants on Sestak’s 2006 and 2008 House races — J.J. Balaban, Doc Sweitzer, and Neil Oxman of the Philadelphia-based firm The Campaign Group — have signaled to Sestak that they’ll work for him if and when he enters the Senate primary.

“My colleagues and I were very pleased to help Joe defeat a longtime Republican in 2006, and we’d be happy to do so again in 2010,” Balaban told me, in a puckish reference to Specter.

Now, here’s the thing…Sestak could actually take this one because he’s not just a random politico. He’s actually a former Navy Vice Admiral and so his national security cred is literally second to none.

Regardless, he still has a significant hurdle to overcome because of Specter’s reputation and tenure. But if he can begin to peel away just a few endorsements, the mood could shift.

More as it develops…

Republicans can call Arlen Specter an opportunist all they like and maybe they’re right. But the fact remains, the senator’s party jump is the direct result of the Republican’s increasing intolerance of moderates within their party.

I understand that Specter is not a model Republican and that a primary challenge is often the price a politician pays for refusing to toe the party line. But usually the main powerbrokers support the incumbent (as happened with Specter in 2004) and the official stays in office. Except, here in 2009, the Republican party is effectively controlled by talk show hosts and hardcore activists who seem to think the path back to power is through purification of the party.

This is not a syndrome exclusive to conservatives. We shouldn’t forget the purging of Joe Lieberman which resulted in the longtime Democrat becoming an Independent. Lucky for Dems, Lieberman chose to continue caucusing with the blue team, even though he did campaign for John McCain. Now with the Democrats on the verge of a 60 vote majority in the Senate (as soon as Al Franken gets his seat, God help us), I think Democratic purists may better understand the usefulness of a big tent. Without Lieberman and other less-than-pure Dems like Evan Bayh, Jim Webb, Ben Nelson, et. al., the Democrats wouldn’t be so close to a filibuster-proof majority.

Arlen Specter most likely defected because he would lose his primary. But that should still tell the Republicans something: if they want to return to power quickly (rather than waiting for the pendulum of history to swing back away from the left), they’d be better off building a broad-based coalition rather than trying to create a pure, but powerless party.

This is pretty big news. Reports out of Washington indicate Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter will switch parties moving from a Republican to a Democrat. The announcement is expected today or tomorrow.

Republicans in Pennsylvania have been planning to mount a primary challenge against Specter because the senator is viewed by party operatives as too liberal. Well, looks like they got their wish to get rid of Specter. Too bad the result will almost certainly give Democrats a 60 vote majority in the Senate (assuming Al Franken officially wins in Minnesota, which looks very likely).

More as the story develops.

Actually, I’m not laughing at this…just giving Matthews some grief for that signature, guttural laugh of his.

From FiveThirtyEight…

Chris Matthews, it appears, is in.

FiveThirtyEight has been hearing for some time that Matthews is serious about running for the United States Senate, but it took a trip to Georgia among the Georgia-runoff-congregated and well-connected Obama organizer throng to confirm.

According to multiple sources, who confirmed the Tip O’Neill staffer-cum-MSNBC host has negotiated with veteran Obama staffers to enlist in his campaign, Chris Matthews is likely to run for United States Senate in Pennsylvania in 2010. Matthews, 62, would run as a Democrat. Arlen Specter, the aging Republican incumbent, will be 80 if he chooses to run for re-election.

I think he could make a serious run for Arlen Specter’s seat (if Specter decides to run), and it makes sense that he’d want to get out of the media and try to join Obama to help unify the country again.

Preliminary poll numbers don’t look so hot for Matthews, but that could all change if Chris gets serious and starts using his show to push the platform he’d run on.

One other issue that should send a shiver up Matthews’ leg, getting the Democratic nomination won’t be a cake walk. Washington Monthly points out that three separate Dems (Reps. Allyson Schwartz and Joe Sestak, and state Rep. Josh Shapiro) are interested in the seat and the field may grow.

However, let’s say Matthews gets the nomination…doesn’t this introduce an odd problem for the Republican challenger? Because how much will Matthews use Hardball to push his message before, during and after his announcement to run? And will Republicans cry foul even after all of their chatter against the Fairness Doctrine?

More as it develops…

MSNBC just called it.

McCain’s dream is over folks.

21 electoral votes to Barack.

I’m back in Philly, my home away from home, sitting in a swanky hotel lobby, facing a wall, like a crazy person, in order to borrow wireless. And I’ve just published a piece for ANP.

Here’s the scoop…

Today, registered voters in Philly found their names missing from local poll books, which are apparently notorious for being out of date. When those names were checked with the central database, they were verified as registered. Nevertheless, according to election observers in the campaigns and independent of the campaigns, the local election board decided to assign provisional ballots to these voters, which means that their votes probably won’t be counted this evening. If the election is close in Pennsylvania, that’ll make a substantial difference.

This is, yet again, the responsibility of the Philadelphia City Commissioners’ office, led by Marge Tartaglione. Democrats in Philly have a curious way of eating their own..Click here for ANP’s previous coverage of voting in Philly.

Click here for Steven Rosenfeld’s article on Alternet

http://americannewsproject.com/videos/171

As every indicator points to a Barack Obama win tomorrow, let’s pause to consider if there’s any reasonable scenario that could lead to a John McCain electoral college win, even if he loses the popular vote. Unless the state-by-state polls are grossly inaccurate, McCain’s chances are not great — but he does have one potential path to victory.

It all begins with McCain winning Pennsylvania and its 21 electoral votes.

After McCain’s intense focus on the state, poll numbers have tightened in Pennsylvania. If there’s a last-minute surge in McCain’s favor, his road to victory becomes much easier.

With a Pennsylvania win, McCain only needs to keep Florida , Missouri, Ohio and North Carolina in the red column, plus one other Bush state that’s now considered leaning blue (Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico or Virginia). That sounds like drawing to an inside straight, but polls indicate McCain is ahead in North Carolina and Missouri and is just a few ticks behind in Florida and Ohio. He has little chance in Iowa or New Mexico, but Colorado, Nevada and Virginia are all close enough to conceivably go for McCain.

But what if McCain loses Pennsylvania as expected? At that point, he has to rely on winning Colorado, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and either Iowa, Nevada or New Mexico. That’s not drawing to an inside straight. That’s drawing dead.

If the networks call Pennsylvania for Obama early in the night, it’s over for McCain. At that point, his only hope would be for all the other polls to have been very, very wrong.

In fact, their user account on YouTube only has two videos in it, with this being one of them.

Will McCain denounce this tactic?

We shall see…

First, the Obama leads…

Florida: Obama +2
Obama: 47%
McCain: 45%

Virginia: Obama +3
Obama: 47%
McCain: 44%

Pennsylvania: Obama +4
Obama: 47%
McCain: 43%

Nevada: Obama +4
Obama: 47%
McCain: 43%

Colorado Obama +5
Obama: 49%
McCain: 44%

And then, the McCain leads…

Missouri: McCain +1
McCain: 47%
Obama: 46%

Ohio: McCain +2
McCain: 47%
Obama: 45%

North Carolina: McCain +3
McCain: 49%
Obama: 46%

And that’s it. These are the last polls from NBC before the election.

The poll of polls reveals Obama holding steady.

Colorado…

CNN’s new Colorado Poll of Polls shows Obama leading McCain by 6 points 51% to 45%; The last Colorado Poll of Polls –- released Saturday –- showed Obama leading McCain by 7 points.

Florida…

An average of polls conducted in battleground Florida, shows Obama leading McCain by 4 points, 49% to 45%. Saturday’s Florida Poll of Polls also showed Obama leading McCain by 4 points.

Iowa…

In Iowa, where it all started for Sen. Obama, the Illinois senator is leading McCain by 14 points, 53% to 39%.

Minnesota…

CNN’s new Minnesota Poll of Polls shows Obama leading McCain by 12 points, 52% to 40%; The last Minnesota Poll of Polls –- released October 30 –- showed Obama leading McCain by 13 points.

New Hampshire…

In New Hampshire, Obama is leading McCain by 11 points, 53% to 42% according to the latest CNN Poll of Polls. CNN’s last New Hampshire Poll of Polls –- released November 1 –- showed Obama leading McCain by 12 points.

Pennsylvania…

CNN’s new average of polls in Pennsylvania shows the Democratic nominee leading the Republican nominee by 7 points, 51% to 44%; CNN’s last Pennsylvania Poll of Polls –- released November 1 –- showed Obama leading McCain by 8 points.

Virginia…

Finaly, in Virginia, a state that has voted Republican in every presidential race since 1968, Obama is leading McCain by 7 points, 51% to 44%.

And there we are.

I think the only question mark here is Florida. All the rest are pretty much locked up. Sure, Pennsylvania and Virginia could be closer than previously thought, but any state where Obama is polling above 50% will turn blue.

My friend and colleague, Lagan Sebert, and I have just published a follow-up on the voting situation in Pennsylvania, arrowing in on a recent legal battle over paper ballots and the Philadelphia City Commission (which has kind of become a peculiar little beat for the ANP, I guess.)

This week, we attended the federal hearing against the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania (filed by the NAACP) and the last public meeting of the Philly City Commissioners before the election. We were surprised to see very few members of media at either meeting–Bob Warner of the Philadelphia Daily News was an exception.

If you like it, please do send this along to other people who might be interested or link to it or embed it on your websites! All ANP content is free for use in newspapers, blogs, television, and radio.

Chaos Looms Over Pennsylvania Vote
By Danielle Ivory on Oct 31, 2008

Philadelphia is shaping up to be a key city in a key battleground state in this election, but machine problems and long lines may plague the polling stations and voter disenfranchisement will be a serious risk. Unfortunately for voters, the people charged with running a smooth election in Philly seem surprisingly unconcerned. Philly’s veritable election czar, Marge Tartaglione (D), in particular, shocked ANP with her comments at a recent hearing. See more videos at the American News Project.

ANP has been investigating the perplexing case of the Philadelphia City Commission for a few weeks.

Click for our original story, Philly Official Scoffs at Voting Problems.

Click for our follow-up, Voters Sue Pennsylvania, Election Official Scoffs.

And click for the judge’s recent ruling in the case of the NAACP v. Cortes.

Follow Danielle’s reporting on twitter.

Follow Lagan’s reporting on twitter.

Pennsylvania: Obama +4
Obama: 47%
McCain: 43%

Minnesota: Obama + 8
Obama: 48%
McCain: 40%

Arizona: McCain +4
McCain: 48%
Obama: 44%

Frankly, I don’t buy the PA or MN numbers since they are the first to show a really tight race. Especially when you have roughly 10% undecideds in your sample at this point.

Still, Mason/Dixon is well respected, which is why I chose to share it all with you.

Prediction: Obama will take Pennsylvania and Minnesota. McCain will take Arizona.

You heard it here first! :-)

Quinnipiac thinks it’s too little too late for McCain in Ohio and Pennsylvania, but thinks he could pull it off in Florida. I still don’t think Obama can pull Ohio off, but I’m willing to be wrong. :-)

The numbers and cross tabs…

Florida: Obama +2
Obama: 47%
McCain: 45%
(Obama was ahead by 5)

Among those who say they already have voted in Florida, Obama leads 58 – 34 percent.

Looking at all Florida likely voters, men go to McCain 49 – 44 percent. Women back Obama 50 – 42 percent. The Republican leads 53 – 40 percent among white voters, 72 – 21 percent among evangelical Christians and 53 – 42 percent among Catholics. The Democrat leads 75 – 20 percent among Jews and 56 – 39 percent among voters 18 – 34 years old. Voters 35 to 54 split 46 – 46 percent, and voters over 55 go 47 percent for McCain and 45 percent for Obama.

Ohio: Obama +9
Obama: 51%
McCain: 42%
(Obama was ahead by 14)

Obama leads 57 – 31 percent among those who already have voted in Ohio.

Among all Ohio likely voters, the Democrat leads 55 – 36 percent among women. McCain gets 48 percent of men to Obama’s 45 percent. White voters split with 47 percent for McCain and 46 percent for Obama. Black voters back Obama 89 – 1 percent. The Democrat leads 59 – 36 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old, while voters 35 to 54 split with 47 percent for McCain and 46 percent for Obama. Voters over 55 go Democratic 50 – 40 percent.

Pennsylvania: Obama +12
Obama: 53%
McCain: 41%
(Obama was ahead by 13)

Obama leads 59 – 35 percent with women, while men back McCain by a narrow 49 – 46 percent. White voters split with 48 percent for Obama and 47 percent for McCain. Black voters back Obama 95 – 2 percent. He also leads 61 – 36 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old, 51 – 43 percent among voters 35 to 54 years old and 51 – 42 percent among voters over 55.

More as it develops…

Good signs on the state level (.pdf), even if Obama’s numbers are slipping a bit nationally in the past couple days.

Colorado: Obama +9
Obama: 50%
McCain: 41%

Florida: Obama + 2
Obama: 45%
McCain: 43%

Nevada: Obama +12
Obama: 52%
McCain: 40%

New Hampshire: Obama +18
Obama: 55%
McCain: 37%

North Carolina: Obama +2
Obama: 48%
McCain: 46%

Ohio: Obama +7
Obama: 48%
McCain: 41%

Pennsylvania: Obama +12
Obama: 52%
McCain: 40%

Virginia: Obama + 7
Obama: 49%
McCain: 42%

My prediction? Any state where there’s a margin of 5 or less, he’ll lose. So that means Florida and North Carolina probably won’t turn out in Obama’s favor come election day. I really think undecideds will start to break 2 to 1 for McCain because they’re just nervous that Obama will tax the hell out of them.

And even though Obama leads by 7 in Ohio, I also have my doubts he’ll take it. I just don’t think there are enough early votes there to swing it.

But all the rest? Virginia, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Nevada and New Hampshire are Obama’s.

What do you think?

Just by way of introduction, the ANP is an independent non-profit video news organization in DC. We produce pieces for the web, but offer all of our content for free to newspapers, blogs, websites, radio, and television so please feel free to embed or share our videos. We see all visitors to our website as potential partners and hope that our community will eventually help fund specific beats, send us news tips and story ideas, and join us as freelancers. Another great site to check out is http://spot.us.

We’re convinced that journalistic collaboration will be essential to the future of news, and so far it’s worked pretty well for us. We’ve worked with McClatchy, The Nation, the Washington Independent, and The Huffington Post on investigative and breaking stories and look forward to more teamwork in the future.

Recently, I’ve been covering voting infrastructural issues for the ANP and found myself in Philadelphia. During the 2008 primary, parts of Pennsylvania (particularly areas with high concentrations of poverty and people of color) experienced major delays due to machine failures, and many voters ended up waiting in line for hours or getting disenfranchised. When I spoke to Philly’s Deputy Commissioner, Fred Voigt, I was startled by a strong sense of institutional inertia, an unwillingness to admit that serious problems exist and, what’s more, that these problems could possibly be fixed with better management and funding. Furthermore, he and the commission (headed by Marge Tartaglione) seemed alarmingly unconcerned about long lines leading to disenfranchisement. We aired a story about this on Monday, featuring this disturbing interview. Since then, the NAACP and the Election Reform Network have filed a lawsuit against the state or Pennsylvania, requesting that paper ballots be made available for the voters of PA in case there are machine breakdowns. ANP’s original story was quoted in the complaint—Voigt’s comments were described as an example of a “woefully inadequate” official response to election problems.

We aired a follow-up yesterday, covering the lawsuit and presenting more of our strange interview with Fred Voigt. I asked Voigt how voters could avoid lines, and gave me another surprising answer.

We’ll continue following this case and the state of voting in Pennsylvania and elsewhere. (If you have ideas or tips, please feel free to email us at contact@newsproject.org.)

ANP: Voters Sue Pennsylvania, Election Official Scoffs

Click here to view our original story.

Click here to view the Voter Action complaint and plaintiffs’ memorandum.

Some good news for McCain today, but considering he has pulled out of Colorado in favor of Pennsylvania, this poll also surfaces some cold, hard truths about his chances to win.

Ohio: McCain +3
McCain 48%
Obama 45%

Florida: McCain +2
McCain 48%
Obama 46%

Pennsylvania: Obama +7
Obama 50%
McCain 43%

While Obama has had a lot of great polling these past few days, Strategic Vision usually has decent numbers so these shouldn’t be discounted. However, my gut tells me that you should add 3 points to each of these polls. So Ohio would be tied, Obama would be ahead by 1 in Florida and he’d be up by 10 in Pennsylvania.

Is that the same sense you’d have?

Looks like the race is tightening up in Pennsylvania’s 12th district.

From Pittsburgh Tribune-Review:

Democratic Rep. John Murtha leads retired Army Lt. Col. William Russell by a little more than 4 percentage points, within the Susquehanna Poll’s 4.9-point margin of error. The poll of 400 likely voters was conducted for the Tribune-Review on Tuesday, amid uproar over Murtha’s statement that some of his constituents are racist.

Stanley Shemanski, 67, a retired meat cutter who lives in Apollo, said he’s undecided about the congressional race. He doesn’t know much about Russell, but he’s upset with Murtha’s comment that racism in the district could hurt Democrat Barack Obama’s chances.

“I didn’t like that at all. He shouldn’t have said it,” Shemanski said.

No, he shouldn’t have said it, and the fact that he said disparaging things twice about Pennsylvanians puts him directly in the voters crosshairs.

So what to make of this?

Well, I think many of us in the centersphere would welcome this seat turning red. Murtha has time and time again proven himself to be a decidedly partisan animal above all else, and maybe this could be a clear signal to Dems to not get too cocky if they win big.

I’ll be keeping my eye on this race come election night.

More numbers bring more bad news for McCain.

Now, Big Ten polls the eight states where the Big Ten school are, so some of them (Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota) I’m not going to even bother showing since they’re safely blue.

Instead, I’ll focus on four McCain has been campaigning in recently.

Indiana: +10
Obama 51%
McCain 41%

Ohio: Obama + 12
Obama 53%
McCain 41%

Pennsylvania: Obama +11
Obama 52%
McCain 41%

Wisconsin: Obama +13
Obama 53%
McCain 40%

So first Quinnipiac shows Obama up 14% in Ohio, and now this poll shows him up 12%?

And up +10 in Indiana?

What’s more, compare these numbers to what Big Ten had in mid-September…

The eight states home to the 11 universities in the Big Ten conference were key battlegrounds in the 2004 election, and the results of the poll show that they are among the most competitive in the country and are likely to be pivotal in determining the election outcome.

The surveys show a tight race in all of the Big Ten states except for Obama’s home state of Illinois, where he holds a 16-point lead over McCain. The two candidates are tied in Iowa and Pennsylvania, and Obama has just a one-point lead in Ohio and Wisconsin. McCain is ahead in just one state — Indiana — where he leads by 4 percentage points.

Are we seeing a big shift in the electorate?