I don’t really understand this story by the AP.

Check it out…

WASHINGTON (AP) – Barack Obama has effectively clinched the Democratic presidential nomination, based on an Associated Press tally of convention delegates.

The tally put Obama over the top Tuesday, ahead of the results from the day’s final primaries in Montana and South Dakota. The Illinois senator becomes the first black candidate ever to lead his party into a fall campaign for the White House. Obama outlasted former first lady Hillary Rodham Clinton in a historic contest and now faces Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona for the presidency.

Based on what? I haven’t seen the superdelegate tsunami some were reporting earlier, and all the sources I can find have him more than 30 delegates from clinching.

What gives?

Between wrongly reporting that Hillary will concede tonight, to now claiming Obama has clinched, it hasn’t been the best day for the AP’s credibility.

I guess I was wrong before about 20 superdelegates. Looks like he needs 30 to 35 delegates to tie this thing up.

That doesn’t seem doable at this point. I’d be surprised if it happened.

By more than 2 to 1…

The cable networks called the island territory for Clinton the instant polls closed at 3:00 p.m., indicating a landslide; exit polls showed her winning virtually every group, including young voters typically loyal to nomination rival Barack Obama.

“I am overwhelmed by this vote today,” Clinton said in her victory speech. She used the speech to press the case that she’s proven her superior electability by pulling more popular votes than Obama.

She said more people have voted for her “than for any candidate in the history of presidential primaries. We are winning the popular vote.”

But is she really winning the popular vote? Because let’s remember that Clinton isn’t counting four caucus states that don’t report popular vote. With those, Obama is ahead by about 44,000 votes. Obviously this isn’t a large margin, but for her to claim outright that she leads the popular vote is misleading at best.

Right now the delegate count (according to Real Clear Politics) stands at…

Obama – 2,068
Clinton – 1,914

So Obama needs 50 to reach the new number of 2,118. The primaries on Tuesday should bring him within 20 35 of that total.

So…will more than 20 35 superdelegates stand up and stop this or will they wait until the convention?

More as it develops…

They determined this based on the actual vote, exit polls of who cast votes for “uncommitted” and voters who wrote in Obama’s name (those votes didn’t count).

But this is going to be a much tougher nut to crack than Florida. People are already talking about how exit polls aren’t an accurate reflection of voter preference, etc.

Sure, but what else are you going to base it on? A coin toss? Everybody knows that the “uncommitted” vote went for Obama. To say anything different is intellectually dishonest.

More as it develops…

On MSNBC!

(by the way, I wish C-SPAN allowed embedding and then replaced whatever live feed they had with the recording of that feed. That would be great for us political bloggers…hint hint…)

I’m watching Robert Wexler make the case for Obama right now. He’s doing a very good job…because he’s talking about the actual, you know, rules.

There’s lots of talk about unity right now. Basically, “Don’t let this fight continue to tear the Democratic party apart. Remember, we’re all in this together.”

Wexler just offered a concession on behalf of Obama to seat half the delegates for Florida. This is how it’s going to go down.

NY Times:
Obama – Pledged (1,656), Super (319.5), Total (1,975.5)
Clinton – Pledged (1,502), Super (274), Total (1,776)
50.5 for Obama to win, 250 for Clinton to win

CNN:
Obama – Pledged (1661), Super (317), Total (1,978)
Clinton – Pledged (1499), Super (281), Total (1,780)
48 for Obama to win, 246 for Clinton to win

Real Clear Politics:
Obama – Pledged (1659), Super (320), Total (1979)
Clinton – Pledged (1499), Super (282), Total (1781)
47 for Obama to win, 245 for Clinton to win

The Associated Press:
Obama – Pledged (1,659), Super (322), Total (1,981)
Clinton – Pledged (1,499), Super (281), Total (1,780)
45 for Obama to win, 248 for Clinton to win

Dem Convention Watch
Obama – Pledged (1660.5), Supers (320.5), Total (1981)
Clinton – Pledged (1499.5), Supers (280.5), Total (1780)
44 for Obama to win, 245 for Clinton to win

We’ll find out more this weekend after the DNC rules on Michigan and Florida, but my guess is that they’ll seat half the delegates per the existing rules. Obama can let that happen now and not have Hillary catch up, although it might help her “I deserve the VP position” argument.

More this weekend…

From TPM:

In what could potentially be a blow to Hillary’s electoral hopes, such as they are right now, the Democratic National Committee’s lawyers have declared that the Rules and Bylaws committee lacks the legal authority to seat the full Florida and Michigan delegations.

The DNC’s lawyers sent a memo late yesterday to members of the committee telling them that the two states must lose half of their convention delegates for skirting party rules and holding earlier elections.

That’s trouble for Hillary, who is pushing for a full seating of the delegations to narrow Obama’s pledged del lead and to proclaim herself the popular vote winner in order to argue that Dem primary voters didn’t render a clear verdict on their preference as nominee.

My guess is that they’ll seat half of the delegates.

We’ll see on Saturday!

CNN:
Obama – Pledged (1660), Super (309), Total (1,969)
Clinton – Pledged (1500), Super (279), Total (1,779)
57 for Obama to win, 247 for Clinton to win

Real Clear Politics:
Obama – Pledged (1658), Super (316), Total (1974)
Clinton – Pledged (1500), Super (280), Total (1780)
52 for Obama to win, 248 for Clinton to win

NY Times:
Obama – Pledged (1,656), Super (309.5), Total (1,965.5)
Clinton – Pledged (1,502), Super (273), Total (1,775)
60.5 for Obama to win, 253 for Clinton to win

The Associated Press:
Obama – Pledged (1,659), Super (315), Total (1,974)
Clinton – Pledged (1,499), Super (280), Total (1,779)
52 for Obama to win, 249 for Clinton to win

Dem Convention Watch
Obama – Pledged (1660.5), Supers (315.5), Total (1976)
Clinton – Pledged (1499.5), Supers (279.5), Total (1779)
49 for Obama to win, 246 for Clinton to win

The big date now is May 31st when the DNC’s rules committee will vote on the status of Michigan and Florida’s contests. But if Obama can get 70 supers to swing his way before then, everybody will say this is over. If not, the DNC’s ruling could potentially upend this process and it may got to the convention.

More as it develops…

Real Clear Politics
Obama – 1975, 51 to win
Clinton – 1775, 250 to win

Dem Con Watch
Obama – 1962, 64 to win
Clinton – 1780, 245 to win

CNN
Obama – 1962, 64 to win
Clinton – 1777, 248 to win

MSNBC
Obama – 1960, 66 to win
Clinton – 1783, 243 to win

Now, if you asked Hillary, she’d say that the real number is 2,210, not 2,026. We’ll find out on May 31st if the DNC’s rules committee will actually reverse their previous decision and count Michigan and Florida.

Currently, though, this is where the numbers stand.

They are…

1. Daniel Boan, South Carolina
2. Christine Brennan-Bond, South Carolina
3. Robert Groce, South Carolina
4. Susan Smith, South Carolina
5. Mike Evatt, South Carolina
6. Lauren Bilton, South Carolina
7. Machelle Crum, Iowa

This has the net effect of him winning South Carolina by another 12% (Edwards won 17.57%), which would mean he took 67% in the state to Hillary’s 26%. If Edwards 2 remaining pledged delegates switch to Obama, he would win the entire 17.57% and thus have 72.57%.

And it looks like Edwards himself is asking these folks to switch…

One Edwards delegate from Iowa, Machelle Crum, came out for Obama on Thursday morning, [...]. Crum made the decision after receiving a phone call from Edwards supporters encouraging her to make the switch.

By my count, Obama now only needs 125.5 delegates to clinch the nomination.

More as it develops…

PORTSMOUTH, N.H.—A New Hampshire Democratic Party delegate who had supported John Edwards says he will support Barack Obama, now that Edwards has endorsed his former political rival for the party’s presidential nominee.

Joshua Denton of Portsmouth, 26, an Iraq war veteran, says he thinks that both Obama and Hillary Clinton would be a better president than Republican nominee John McCain. He thinks that Obama is the change the country needs, along with having the best chance of beating McCain in the general election.

This means that Obama would need 132.5 more delegates to clinch the nomination.

No word on who he’ll back, but Mississippi went really big (61% to 37%) for Obama.

By the way, Clinton and company have now revised their number to 2,210. I point this out only so you’ll know what to ignore.

But since we’re on the topic, here are some delegate numbers:

Pledged Delegates Won
Obama – 1599
Clinton – 1446
Advantage: Obama +153

Super Duper Delegates Won
Obama – 289.5
Clinton – 273.5
Advantage: Obama +16

Total Delegates Won
Obama – 1888.5
Clinton – 1719.5
Advantage: Obama +169

More as it develops…

From Wash Post:

Prince George’s County Executive Jack B. Johnson, a Democratic convention delegate pledged to support Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, said yesterday that he thinks Sen. Barack Obama has “in a real sense” won the Democratic nomination and that he now plans to support Obama at the August convention.

Johnson, who endorsed Clinton nine days before Maryland’s February primary, said he will urge Gov. Martin O’Malley and Sen. Barbara A. Mikulski, who co-chair Clinton’s Maryland campaign, to bring all of her delegates to Obama’s camp for the sake of party unity.

“I cannot in good conscience go to the convention and not support Barack,” Johnson said in an interview. “She ran a great campaign, but she fell short of the line.”

Personally, I’m not in favor of this, but there’s really not much point to it at this stage of the game anyway. Whether pledged delegates start switching or not, Obama’s the nominee.

So why was it the right number then, but it’s phony now?

Folks, this is about fairness, and you can’t move the finish line 3/4 of the way through the race and expect nobody to cry foul. You can call that Clinton Derangement Syndrome if you want, but these people seem increasingly allergic to reality.

From Politico:

The Obama campaign agrees with the Democratic National Committee, which pegs a winning majority at 2,025 pledged delegates and superdelegates—a figure that excludes the penalized Florida and Michigan delegations. The Clinton campaign, on the other hand, insists the winner will need 2,209 to cinch the nomination—a tally that includes Florida and Michigan.

“We don’t accept 2,025. It is not the real number because that does not include Florida and Michigan,” said Howard Wolfson, one of Clinton’s two chief strategists. “It’s a phony number.”

Wolfson said they intend to contest the DNC’s 2,025 number “every day,” as well as any declaration of victory made by Obama based upon that number, because it does not include Florida and Michigan.

I would have a different opinion of the value of their argument if she had said this from day one; that Michigan and Florida needed to be seated. That doesn’t mean I’d necessarily agree with it, but if she had said it before Iowa, I would have at least believed that she wasn’t trying to change the rules midstream. But she didn’t, and this latest ploy is beyond shameful.

In other words, theirs is turning into a phony campaign built on phony arguments delivered from phony partisans who will do or say anything to win.

However, the important part here is that this is being put forth by Michigan democrats, so it’s going to be very hard for her to say no at this point:

The state party’s executive committee voted Wednesday to ask the national party’s Rules and Bylaws Committee to approve the 69-59 delegate split when it meets May 31. The plan would allow the state’s 157 delegates and superdelegates to be seated at the convention.

A separate plan submitted to the rules committee by Democratic National Committee members Joel Ferguson of Michigan and Jon Ausman of Florida, both superdelegates, apparently will be withdrawn now that the Michigan executive committee has settled on the 69-59 plan. Under their proposal, delegates would have been allocated based on the primary election results, but have had only half a vote each. The superdelegates would have had full voting rights.

A message seeking comment was left on Ferguson’s cell phone Wednesday evening.

The DNC stripped Michigan and Florida of their convention delegates — 366 in all, including pledged delegates and superdelegates — for holding their primaries too early in the nominating process, which violated party rules.

More as it develops…

Here’s a screenshot, with the delegate part highlighted…

Again, there’s NO mention of the race to reach 2,025 delegates. Why? Because they know they’ve already lost that race.

So then, what do they have to say for themselves?

Wash Times has more…

“That’s what we believe is the standard for deciding this — who has the majority of the total delegates including Michigan and Florida to decide the nomination,” said Clinton strategist Geoff Garin.

It certainly is nice to believe things, isn’t it?

So then, what do members of the DNC think about it?

"It's not just a question of changing the rules, it's ignoring the reason the [DNC's] rules committee is there, to enforce the rules. You don't get relieved of that responsibility if you don't like the outcome," Mr. Katz said.

And my guess is Katz isn’t alone. Hillary and company are trying to completely invalidate their existence, and I don’t think they’ll take that lying down.

And speaking of lying…let me just say for record that posting the total delegates needed as 2,208 isn’t just spin…it’s a lie. Pure and simple.

They should be ashamed of themselves.

The New York Times has a delegate scorecard thingamajig and I’m going to play out a few scenarios here.

First, let’s say Hillary and Obama split the remaining pledged delegates. What % of the supers would she need?

Think 73% is possible? If so, I have a bridge you might be interested in buying…

Okay, so let’s say Hill actually has momentum and starts beating Obama by 10% in every contest from here on out.

So she would still need to beat him nearly 2 to 1 in super pickups, and post Pennsylvania he has 21 to her 11. Hardly encouraging.

Okay, last scenario. What % of the pledged delegates would she have to get to merely trade superdelegate endorsements with Barack?

That’s right folks…she would have to beat Obama by 30% in every primary from here on out.

So if you ever wonder why people are calling for her to drop out of the race, remember this post.