And by a very large margin.
Hotline On Call breaks down the numbers…
Mitt Romney: 81 points
Tim Pawlenty: 46
John Thune: 38
Haley Barbour: 28
Mitch Daniels: 25
Sarah Palin: 25
Note how far down Palin is on that list. That’s because, as noted, this is a poll of party insiders and they really don’t like her.
So what do Dem insiders [...]

President Obama’s “approval rating” fell below 50% for the first time in the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll on Tuesday. A dust up between press secretary Robert Gibbs and Fox News’ Major Garrett resulted in this comment from Gibbs:
“If I was a heart patient and Gallup was my EKG, I’d visit my doctor,” Gibbs said [...]

In the past week, Obama’s approval rating has finally slipped below the 50% mark in Gallup’s daily tracking poll.

The reason why?
His support among white voters has fallen from 61% to 39%. And that could be a big problem as he looks towards 2012.

Or is it such a big problem? Or a completely manageable one?
Looking [...]

Gallup is out with a poll that suggests more problems for the Dems and a 10 point shift in voter preference since July.
First, the numbers…

The bigger news here? Independents are swinging wildly in favor of the generic Republicans.

There’s about a year to go before the 2010 elections, but this shift does not bode well for [...]

As I’ve said numerous times before, voters aren’t stupid. They know who piloted our economic collapse last year and it’s going to be extremely hard for Republicans to convince them otherwise.
Still, it is kind of telling that Republicans blame Obama more for the economy than Bush, even though it’s by a very small 6 point [...]

News Headlines for Independent Voters 10/29/09
As we head to Election Day 2009, everyone is talking about the Yankees and the Phillies. And a few people are talking about the Mayoral race in NYC, where independent candidate Mike Bloomberg is poised to become the first independent mayor of New York, running on the Independence Party (Column [...]

A new poll of New York’s 23rd Congressional District from the Club For Growth, which is backing Conservative Party Candidate Doug Hoffman in the race, effectively shows that the race is now a statistical dead heat among all three candidates:
Washington – A poll released today by the Club for Growth shows Conservative Party candidate Doug [...]

Despite the election of Barack Obama and the continuing misfortunes of the GOP, the United States is still a center-right country:
PRINCETON, NJ — Conservatives continue to outnumber moderates and liberals in the American populace in 2009, confirming a finding that Gallup first noted in June. Forty percent of Americans describe their political views as conservative, [...]

Can you believe it’s 9 points?
Here’s the graph from Gallup:

This creates a bit of an interesting predicament. Should Obama simply push forward with his initiatives and let the polls be damned or can he risk losing independents in front of a tough 2012 fight? I guess it depends on whether or not he can lose [...]

I suppose it’s possible, but more and more evidence is pointing to the contrary.
Here’s some telling info from a Washington Post/ABC News poll out yesterday…
Poll respondents are evenly divided when asked whether they have confidence in Obama to make the right decisions for the country’s future, but just 19 percent express confidence in the Republicans [...]

Gallup has some numbers that might surprise.
Basically, the folks who decide the elections (the indys) are starting to consider the Republicans more and Dems better pay attention. Because the only reason they made such historic gains in 2006 is because the DNC targeted districts that wanted more moderate leadership and took seats from the GOP.
More [...]

It’s pretty easy…the only people that voters like less than Congressional Democrats and Congressional Republicans.
Add in the facts that Republicans have no coherent plan, no definitive leadership and are allowing right wing pundits to organize and promote this Tea Party movement and you have a reality where Dems might actually pick up seats next year.
Personally [...]

Public Policy Polling pitted the top Republicans (including Jeb Bush) against Obama in a hypothetical matchup and found that the former Arkansas Governor’s folksy ways puts him at the top of the pack. And this makes sense. Huckabee is amiable, has some ideas that at least sound new (get rid of the IRS, FAIR tax) [...]

If I was a betting man, I’d put the over/under at a net 12 seat gain for the GOP in the House of Representatives.

47% don’t think he is.
29% are unsure.
That leaves less than a quarter (24%) who believe he is.
Also, only 54% of all North Carolina voters think he’s actually a citizen.
Wow.
Public Policy Polling has more…

INDEPENDENT VOTERS
More from Quinnipiac and Field polls on independent voters’ views

Deficit a Growing Concern for Public — and White House (By GERALD F. SEIB, Wall Street Journal) When Mr. Hart, the Democratic pollster, conducted a focus-group discussion with a dozen independent voters in Maryland a few days ago, he drew this conclusion: “These independents’ biggest [...]

INDEPENDENT VOTERS
Continued look at who independent voters are/are not and Obama’s poll numbers…

A reminder: Most ‘independent’ voters aren’t (LA Times/Top of the Ticket)
Sick and Tired of Republicans and Democrats? New Parties Say They Offer Alternatives (By James King, Phoenix News Times)
Pa.’s Sestak plans Tuesday announcement (USA Today)
Poll: Pennsylvania ranks 20th most Democratic state in the [...]

Gallup did a state by state assessment and came up with the following map. Very discouraging for the Repubs out there.

I think this is mostly due to the fact that Republicans still aren’t proposing viable solutions. And that’s probably because they lack any true leadership right now.
Also, whether they want to admit it or not, [...]

Less than half.
Good god.
This is after we found out that a majority of Republicans either don’t think or aren’t sure that Obama is a United States citizen.
(h/t: Political Wire)

A new Research 2000 poll reveals an incredibly disturbing view among registered Republicans. Because that means that 58% of them either believe he wasn’t born in the US or aren’t sure. That’s how far and deep this birthers’ nonsense has spread…from a racist chain email.
Here’s the question and the party breakdowns…
“Do you believe that Barack [...]