Obama gained one and McCain lost one today, after McCain had closed the gap significantly the previous day.

The details…
As would be expected from any methodology involving repeated sampling from a large population, there have been slight fluctuations in the daily reports of Gallup Poll Daily tracking rolling averages (each based on three days worth of [...]

Why is it when a major news organization writes about swing-voters or undecideds or even “moderates” the story is either written with condescension or with an anthropological reverence, like they’ve uncovered some primitive and mysterious tribe? The latest “report” on undecided voters comes from the AP and is based on a Knowledge Networks poll .
The [...]

With leaners
Obama - 49%
McCain - 44%
Without leaners
Obama - 47%
McCain - 40%
The “with leaners” numbers stays the same today, which represents 4 straight days with 0 movement, a fact that is freaking Rasmussen out. Seriously, pollsters don’t know what to do when numbers are steady. I hear they’re drinking…a lot.
However, Obama has gained 1 in the [...]

Obama - 52%
McCain - 35%
Connecticut is usually a pretty faithfully blue state, so the sole reason I post this is Obama only lead McCain by 3 points last month.
The demo details…
In Connecticut, Obama has a solid 58% to 30% lead among women, but just a five point advantage among men.
Among voters not affiliated with [...]

Obama - 48%
McCain - 43%
Well, how about that? A state that Bush won by 20 points in 2004 and 25 points in 2000 has the potential to go blue?
Also, last month the numbers were reversed, so this represents a +10 net gain for Obama in a state many wouldn’t think he has a chance to [...]

McCain gets a net three gain today after Obama loses one and the Arizona senator gains two.

The details…
These slight Obama bumps have proven to be short-lived, and from a larger perspective there has not been a dramatic restructuring of the race in recent weeks.
For example, Obama has averaged 46% of the vote going back [...]

With leaners
Obama - 49%
McCain - 44%
Without leaners
Obama - 46%
McCain - 40%
Again, same story, different day. Absolutely no change in the numbers…so nothing new to report except that the race is very stable…at least according to Rasmussen. They even go so far as to call this stability “amazing.”
The 5 day w/leaners:
07/02/2008: McCain - 44%, Obama - [...]

It’s not quite the beer question, but a new AP/Yahoo! News survey reveals that more Americans would rather barbecue with Barack Obama than John McCain. This must be crushing for McCain who made barbecuing a central component of his VP hunt.
McCain is currently losing the cook off by 7 points, an edge I suspect him [...]

And that number is pretty much exactly where Gallup says Bush’s historic disapproval numbers are at.
Coincidence? I think not…

In fact, McCain’s “maverick” brand is in real trouble with Independent voters…

Pretty much the exact same numbers as the combined for the entire sample. Hell, even 45% of Republicans are “Very” or “Somewhat” concerned.
Gallup then went on [...]

Again, Rasmussen and Gallup show the same numbers today. A very steady race indeed.

No details of note today.
More tomorrow…

McCain - 50%
Obama - 44%
No change from last month with these numbers, but it should be noted that Bush won this state by 20 points in 2004, and 17 points in 2000.
The details…

While McCain has a solid 57% to 38% lead among men, Obama leads 49% to 44% among women.
Obama also dominates among the youngest [...]

McCain - 48%
Obama - 41%
This is down from a 10 point lead a month ago.
The details…

McCain leads by seventeen points among men but trails by two among women.
Obama has a huge lead among voters under 30 while McCain leads among those 30 and older.
McCain is supported by 85% of Republicans while Obama earns the [...]

With leaners
Obama - 49%
McCain - 44%
Without leaners
Obama - 46%
McCain - 40%
As noted by Rasmussen, the numbers are exactly the same as yesterday…and even they’re surprised at the stability of the race. With leaners included, Obama has stayed at 49% for the past 10 days. Without leaners, McCain has stayed at 40% for the past 5.
The [...]

McCain - 53%
Obama - 43%
Last month it was McCain/Obama, 51/41, so there’s not much change, and no doubt it’s a sizable lead, but I’ll say again that this is a state Bush won by 17 points, so just the simple fact that Obama is nearly within single digits is somewhat of a surprise.
Some details and [...]

For the first time in a while, the daily polls from Rasmussen and Gallup show the exact same numbers…

The details…
Obama previously led McCain by a statistically significant margin — peaking at seven points — right after Hillary Clinton suspended her campaign for the Democratic nomination in early June. However, this lasted for only three days [...]

Obama - 49%
McCain - 47%
Last month it was Obama/McCain, 49/42, so this newest poll represents a five point gain for McCain as undecideds seem to be moving exclusively to him.
As expected, massive gaps in support between men and women…
Gender: Female (51% of voters)
Obama - 58%
McCain - 36%
Gender: Male (49% of voters)
McCain - 58%
Obama - 40%
The [...]

As promised, I’m going to start posting Rasmussen numbers with and without leaners, so the first number in the title of the post will always be w/leaners and the second will always be w/o leaners.
With leaners
Obama - 49%
McCain - 44%
Without leaners
Obama - 46%
McCain - 40%
“With leaners” McCain gains one today, and something to note…Obama has [...]

McCain - 49%
Obama - 40%
This after he was leading by 20% in April.
Once again, McCain wins men handily, but Obama is doing better than expected among women…
McCain leads by twenty-seven points among men but trails by six among women.
The Arizona Senator is supported by 81% of Republicans and enjoys a twelve point lead among [...]

“It’s the state of America now that is the most gripping source of anxiety for Americans, not Al Qaeda or Iraq. Anyone who thinks they are going to win this election playing the Iraq or the terrorism card — one way or another — is, in my view, seriously deluded. Things have changed.”
- Thomas Friedman, [...]

New movement after a tie the past four days.

Of note, McCain is close to reaching his lowest level of support in the last month, which was 41%.
The details…
Obama has now pushed slightly back ahead after a stronger showing in Saturday’s polling, mirroring the slight advantage he has held for much of June. The polling [...]