Well, you could see this one coming from a mile away…

From Gallup…

The most shocking stat? Romney’s 23 point lead has evaporated…in a week!

Romney held a 23-point lead over Gingrich as recently as Jan. 11-15. Thus, in a matter of one week, Republicans who are registered to vote have shifted their support substantially — with Romney dropping 8 points and Gingrich gaining 14 points. The latest Gallup tracking update covers Jan. 18-22, encompassing Gingrich’s come-from-behind 12-point victory over Romney in Saturday’s South Carolina Republican primary. Gingrich began to gain on Romney well before Saturday’s vote, however, most likely reflecting his performance in the two nationally televised debates held in South Carolina last Monday and Thursday.

So goes South Carolina…so goes the GOP nation?

More as it develops…

Looks like Newt is leading in most early polls before the debate and PPP had Newt up by 6 a day before the South Carolina primary, where he won by more than twice that.

The numbers…

Gingrich has gained 12 points since a PPP poll conducted in Florida a week ago. Romney has dropped 8 points. Paul and Santorum have pretty much remained in place. Their favorability numbers show similar trendlines. Gingrich’s has increased 8 points from +15 (51/36) to +23 (57/34). Meanwhile Romney’s has declined 13 points from +44 (68/24) to +31 (61/30).

Here’s why that’s good news for Gingrich…

1) His supporters are more committed than Romney’s. 78% of his voters say they’ll definitely vote for him compared to 73% for Romney, and among folks whose minds are completely made up he leads by 9 points at 45-36.

2) If Rick Santorum drops out between now and next Tuesday, Gingrich will be the beneficiary. His voters prefer Gingrich over Romney 50-23, and in a field where he’s no longer a candidate Newt’s lead expands to 43-36.

3) Voters see him as better positioned ideologically than Romney. 52% think his views are ‘about right’ compared to 42% for Romney. Only 14% of voters think he’s ‘too liberal’ compared to 25% for Romney.

4) Newt is drawing out new voters. With the 11% of the electorate that didn’t vote in the 2008 primary, he leads 40-30. Meanwhile Romney is having trouble holding onto the folks who voted for him in 2008. 37% are supporting someone else this time, with 19% of them moving toward Gingrich. This was a big problem for Romney in Iowa as well- if he could just hold onto the folks who supported him last time he’d be winning easily. But he doesn’t inspire a passionate enough following to keep folks in the fold.

5) Newt’s continuing to do well with all the groups he dominated with in South Carolina. He’s up 42-23 with Evangelicals, 46-20 with Tea Partiers (Mitt’s actually in 3rd with them), 42-28 with men, and 44-23 with voters describing themselves as ‘very conservative,’ which is the largest ideological group in the Florida electorate.

More as it develops…

InsiderAdvantage shows very similar numbers to the Rasmussen poll we posted earlier, although Ron Paul pulls a lot more support in this one.

Gingrich – 34%
Romney – 26%
Paul – 13%
Santorum: 11%
Other – 2%
Undecided – 14%

Could the tide be turning in Newt’s favor? It certainly seems so. In fact, look at these overall preference numbers from Gallup…

And that was BEFORE South Carolina. No doubt that gap will get a lot closer when they run these numbers again.

GOPers have decided that they’re not happy with Romney and they’re actively seeking an alternative.

Game on.

Rasmussen has the numbers…

Less than two weeks ago, Mitt Romney had a 22-point lead in Florida, but that’s ancient history in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. Following his big win in South Carolina on Saturday, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich now is on top in Florida by nine.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Florida Republican Primary Voters, taken Sunday evening, finds Gingrich earning 41% of the vote with Romney in second at 32%. Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum runs third with 11%, while Texas Congressman Ron Paul attracts support from eight percent (8%). Nine percent (9%) remain undecided.

Romney’s campaign has always been about inevitability, but South Carolina’s winning record for picking the GOP candidate since 1980 has essentially smashed that…

Throughout the GOP race, Romney has always benefited from the perception that he was the strongest general election candidate in the field. However, among Florida voters at the moment, that is no longer the case. Forty-two percent (42%) now believe Gingrich would be the strongest candidate against Obama, while 39% say the same of Romney. At the other extreme, 64% see Ron Paul as the weakest potential candidate against Obama.

Looks like the GOP might have a long nomination fight on its hands, ala Democrats 2008. And that might not be the worst thing in the world because what that allowed Obama to have was a continuous national spotlight where people got to know him through the prism of a Democratic debate…instead of being defined by the Republicans.

Now, I’m not sure if that’s the best thing for Newt, but for Romney? Perhaps.

One other question…what happens when Santorum drops out? My guess is that a lot of that support will go to Newt because those are the GOPers who can’t abide by Romney’s former support for abortion or his Mormon background. And while I hate to be simplistic about such things, I have to think that if you’re casting your ballot for Santorum, you’re probably a single issue voter given how polarizing he is.

More as it develops…

Pubilc Policy Polling, which has done some great work over the years, has Gingrich up in their first day of polling:

Newt Gingrich led Mitt Romney 34-28 in PPP’s South Carolina polling last night, the first of what will be three nights of tracking. Ron Paul at 15%, Rick Santorum at 14%, Rick Perry at 5%, and Buddy Roemer at 3% round out the field.

This is not a case of Romney imploding. His support has been pretty steady in the 28-30% range in our South Carolina polling so far. But Gingrich has risen from 23% to 34% over the last two weeks, benefiting from declining support for Santorum and also from undecided voters moving into his camp.

It’s clear that the debate Monday night did a lot to help Gingrich’s prospects in the state. 56% of voters say they watched it, and with those folks Gingrich’s lead over Romney is 43-27. Romney still has a 29-22 advantage on Gingrich with those who didn’t tune in.

But does tonight’s debate performance hurt or help him with SC voters?

My guess? It helps.

More as it develops…

From Public Policy Polling…

Mitt Romney continues to be headed for a comfortable win in New Hampshire. PPP’s final poll there finds him with 35% to 18% for Ron Paul, 16% for Jon Huntsman, 12% for Newt Gingrich, 11% for Rick Santorum, 3% for Buddy Roemer, and 1% for Rick Perry.

Romney’s support has been remarkably consistent over the course of PPP’s three Granite State tracking polls, never straying from 35-36%. He’s the most popular of the candidates in the state, with a 60/34 favorability rating. And he also has the most committed supporters…85% of them say they’re definitely going to vote for him and when you look at the race just among those whose minds are completely made up his lead over Paul expands to 40-19.

Still, could Mitt’s “fire” comment cost him some votes?

I think so, and that could make it a lot closer than Mitt may want.

Still, he’ll win. That’s my predict.

More as it develops…

Public Policy Polling is out with their final numbers and it’s a photo finish…

It looks like pretty much everybody has lost support in this except Santorum and Gingrich. And Santorum hasn’t had millions of dollars in negative ads lobbed his way.

Maybe that’s why his favorability numbers are so high…

Santorum’s net favorability of 60/30 makes him easily the most popular candidate in the field. No one else’s favorability exceeds 52%. He may also have more room to grow in the final 48 hours of the campaign than the other front runners: 14% of voters say he’s their second choice to 11% for Romney and only 8% for Paul. Santorum’s taken the lead with two key groups of Republican voters: with Tea Partiers he’s at 23% to 18% for Gingrich, 16% for Paul, 15% for Bachmann, and only 12% for Romney. And with Evangelicals he’s at 24% to 16% for Gingrich, and 15% for Paul and Romney.

A few weeks ago Gingrich was the talk of the town, but looks like he peaked too early. The only person left? Well, besides Huntsman…who doesn’t have a chance in hell. Yes, Santorum. Who is far more unelectable than Huntsman, but don’t tell the evangelicals that.

But let’s talk reality. Paul is still technically in the lead with these numbers. Does he have a shot at it? Yes, but only if non-traditional caucus-goers turn out.

For all that Paul still has a very decent chance at winning on Tuesday- it just depends on whether his unusual coalition of young voters and non-Republicans really comes out to caucus. Among actual Republican voters Paul is tied for 3rd place with Gingrich at 17%, behind Romney’s 21% and Santorum’s 19%. But with independents and Democrats who plan to vote, which we peg at 24% of the electorate, Paul leads with 30% to just 14% each for Santorum and Romney.

Newsflash for all you Paulites…remember 2008? When you thought there’d be this big surge and there wasn’t? That reminded me of 2004 when I went up to help organize for Howard Dean. Long story short…non-traditional caucus-goers don’t turn out. Especially if it’s a highly confusing system like the Iowa caucus system.

Here’s how Republicans do their caucuses in Iowa…

In the Republican caucuses, each voter officially casts his or her vote by secret ballot. Voters are presented blank sheets of paper with no candidate names on them. After listening to some campaigning for each candidate by caucus participants, they write their choices down and the Republican Party of Iowa tabulates the results at each precinct and transmits them to the media.

In 2008, some precincts used a show of hands or preprinted ballots. The non-binding results are tabulated and reported to the state party, which releases the results to the media. Delegates from the precinct caucuses go on to the county conventions, which choose delegates to the district conventions, which in turn selects delegates to the Iowa State Convention.

Thus, it is the Republican Iowa State Convention, not the precinct caucuses, which selects the ultimate delegates from Iowa to the Republican National Convention. All delegates are officially unbound from the results of the precinct caucus, although media organizations either estimate delegate numbers by estimating county convention results or simply divide them proportionally.

Got that? No? Well, don’t worry. Hardly anybody else does either.

Last, here’s a video from the Des Moines Register running down what’s going on up there…

More tomorrow!!!

Romney is still neck and neck with the Texas congressman, so it looks like it’s going to be an interesting caucus.

From Public Policy Polling:

The last week and a half has brought little change in the standings for the Iowa Republican caucus: Ron Paul continues to lead Mitt Romney by a modest margin, 24-20. Newt Gingrich is in 3rd at 13% followed by Michele Bachmann at 11%, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum at 10%, Jon Huntsman at 4%, and Buddy Roemer at 2%.

Paul’s strength in Iowa continues to depend on a coalition of voters that’s pretty unusual for a Republican in the state. Romney leads 22-20 with those who are actually Republicans, while Paul has a 39-12 advantage with the 24% who are either independents or Democrats. GOP caucus voters tend to skew old, and Romney has a 34-12 advantage with seniors. But Paul’s candidacy looks like it’s going to attract an unusual number of younger voters to the caucus this year, and with those under 45 he has a 35-11 advantage on Romney. The independent/young voter combo worked for Barack Obama in securing an unexpectedly large victory on the Democratic side in 2008 and it may be Paul’s winning equation in 2012.

But Romney has one big problem: passion.

Although Romney’s support has held steady at 20% over the last week his favorability numbers have taken a hit, something that could keep him from moving into first place over the final week. He was at +9 (49/40) but has dipped now into negative territory at -3 (44/47). Additionally Romney is the second choice of only 10% of voters, barely better than Paul’s 9%. It’s certainly still close enough that he could win, but there’s nothing within the numbers this week to suggest that he should win. One of Romney’s biggest problems continues to be his inability to hold onto his 2008 voters. Only 48% of them are still with him.

It really looks like Romney wants to win Iowa, but, if Paul wins, he might be able to dismiss it as the handiwork of indies and Dems, not the true Republican base. And since that idea has already been peppered throughout the media, it should stick. Maybe.

But if Paul does win and Romney’s strategy is to win big in New Hampshire…he may face a problem. Because Paul’s politics play well there. But Paul has those newsletter problems that he simply can’t overcome. Regardless of whether or not he knew what was in them, he profited significantly from them and that’s damning for his general election chances.

More as it develops…

Maybe Newt isn’t quite out of it yet…

From WashPost:

Gingrich and Romney are each favored by 30 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. Running behind them is Rep. Ron Paul (Tex.), whose libertarian philosophy has attracted a strong following. He stands at 15 percent, about double his tally in an early November poll. All other active candidates are in the single digits.

But looks like Romney is gaining converts…

Romney has edged higher in the GOP contest, breaking out of the 20s for the first time since July. Gingrich has jumped greatly since early November, in part because of businessman Herman Cain’s decision to suspend his candidacy.

Here are all the numbers…

But the most surprising number in this poll? Obama’s approval rating…

The survey shows President Obama receiving his highest approval rating since March, with the exception of a brief rise after the killing of Osama bin Laden. Although most Americans continue to disapprove of the president’s performance on the economy, the number who disapprove of his overall performance has dipped below 50 percent for the first time this fall.

Sure, not exactly a ringing endorsement, but remember how unpopular Bush was leading up to his reelection bid? Seems like Republicans have a lack of enthusiasm and an opponent who may be on the upswing just in time.

More as it develops…

Public Policy Polling is out today with some more numbers that bode well for Romney in the Granite state.

The scoop…

Mitt Romney has a significant lead in New Hampshire, getting 35% there to 19% for Ron Paul, 17% for Newt Gingrich, 13% for Jon Huntsman, 5% for Michele Bachmann, 3% for Rick Santorum, 2% for Rick Perry, and 1% for Gary Johnson.

Romney’s doing well with pretty much every key segment of the Republican electorate in the state. It’s a rare place where he’s winning Tea Party voters, 29-21 over Ron Paul. He’s getting a full 50% of the vote with seniors, who will be a significant part of the vote. Voters think he has run the strongest campaign in the state (by a 35-12 margin over Paul), that he has the best chance of defeating Barack Obama (by a 38-14 margin over Gingrich), and there’s also a certain feeling of inevitability about his victory in New Hampshire. 41% think he will win the state’s primary to 12% for Gingrich with no one else in double digits.

And PPP builds on the meme that Gingrich’s sudden decline is across the board…

Our New Hampshire poll reinforces our Iowa survey from last night showing Newt Gingrich’s support fading away. Only 42% of likely voters have a favorable opinion of him to 51% with a negative one. Gingrich is less popular in New Hampshire now than he was in the spring when he had a 45/36 favorability. And there’s increasingly a sense that he doesn’t have strong principles- only 34% think he does while 41% think he does not, numbers that pale in comparison to how Romney, Paul, and Huntsman come out on that question.

So with Newt fading fast…here’s the question…if Ron Paul wins in Iowa can Romney hold this lead?

More as it develops…

Public Policy Polling is out with their latest numbers and they bode well for the perennial dark horse from Texas.

First, let’s look at the numbers compared between the last poll and this one…

So why has Newt lost traction? A few reasons…

Gingrich has now seen a big drop in his Iowa standing two weeks in a row. His share of the vote has gone from 27% to 22% to 14%. And there’s been a large drop in his personal favorability numbers as well from +31 (62/31) to +12 (52/40) to now -1 (46/47). Negative ads over the last few weeks have really chipped away at Gingrich’s image as being a strong conservative- now only 36% of voters believe that he has ‘strong principles,’ while 43% think he does not.

Who has been running ads against Gingrich? Ron Paul in particular and it looks like the strategy is working. That and Newt’s personality, which probably doesn’t play too well in Iowa.

But what about Mitt, who continues to just stick around?

Romney’s vote share is up 4 points from a week ago to 20% from it previous 16% standing. His favorability numbers have improved a little bit as well from 48/44 to 49/40. One thing Romney really has going for him is more room for growth than Paul. Among voters who say they’re not firmly committed to their current candidate choice, Romney is the second choice for 19% compared to 17% for Perry, 15% for Bachmann, and only 13% for Paul. It’s particularly worth noting that among Gingrich- who seems more likely to keep falling than turn it around- voters, he’s the second choice of 30% compared to only 11% for Paul.

Can Mitt just wait the entire field out? Looks like. But if Paul wins Iowa and can do well in the traditionally libertarian New Hampshire…this has the potential to be the most interesting GOP primary season since…well, I can’t remember when we’ve ever had an interesting GOP primary season since 1988 when Bob Dole and Pat Robertson gave the elder Bush major heartburn before he finally secured the nomination.

More as it develops…

According to the new TIME/CNN poll…

In Iowa, he leads by 13 points…

In South Carolina, he leads by 23 points..

In Florida, he leads by, again, 23 points…

In New Hampshire, he trails by 19 points…

Can Newt make up the difference in that ever important state?

More as it develops..

As many of you know, I’m a poll junkie and the latest Gallup numbers are just the fix I need.

First, there’s Romney’s anemic numbers that show a candidate who is chronically unable to excite the base. That’s not surprising given Romney’s moderate record in Massachusetts and inability to really connect with the conservative base.

Then there’s the train wreck that is Herman Cain. He’s the flavor of the month that will no doubt leave a horrible taste in the GOP’s mouth if they keep giving him. I’m sorry, but you don’t get accused by five different people at five different times of the same thing and not done something to provoke it.

Still, Republicans don’t seem to really care. More from Gallup…

• Fifty-three percent of Republicans are inclined to believe that the charges are not true, with most of these hedging their bets by saying the charges are “probably not true” rather than “definitely not true.” A little more than a third (35%) say the charges are probably or definitely true — again, with most of these in the probable rather than the definite category.
• Republicans with an opinion are inclined to say Cain has done a good job (45%) rather than a bad job (36%) of handing the charges, although almost one in five don’t have an opinion.
• About half of Republicans are following the news stories about the sexual harassment allegations against Cain very or somewhat closely. This level of attention is lower than the average attention all Americans have paid to news stories Gallup has tracked over the last several decades. The group following the news very or somewhat closely is about as likely to believe the charges against Cain are true as are all Republicans more broadly. At the same time, this group is slightly more likely to be critical of Cain’s response, with 47% saying Cain is doing a good job and 48% a bad job of responding.

Personally, I think Cain is toast because of the allegations, but who knows. Republicans like Herman Cain, and they won’t let something like sexual harassment get in the way.

Then there’s Newt Gingrich, who’s positioning himself as the voice of conservative reason in the chorus of also-rans. I’m not surprised he’s gaining momentum, but I do question whether or not the GOP will ever really embrace him as a realistic nominee.

But Newt as a veep? Hmmm…talk about a counterpoint to Biden.

More as it develops…

More poll numbers show nationwide support for a Cain presidency.

From Des Moines Register:

DES MOINES, Iowa – Herman Cain and Mitt Romney top The Des Moines Register’s new Iowa Poll, with the retired pizza executive edging the former Massachusetts governor 23 percent to 22 percent in the race for the Republican presidential nomination.

Cain has surged 13 percentage points since the first Iowa Poll of the caucus cycle, conducted in late June. His rise has come despite spending little time in Iowa recently, campaigning here just once since the Aug. 13 Iowa straw poll, where he placed fifth.

So where’s the support coming from? No surprise.

Romney has stayed exactly where he was in the Register’s previous poll, but Bachmann and Cain have pretty much swapped places. Who supported Bachmann and are now calling her to get out of the race? No need to guess…you know.

From June…

Romney, the national front-runner and a familiar face in Iowa after his 2008 presidential run, attracts support from 23 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers. Bachmann, who will officially kick off her campaign in Iowa on Monday, nearly matches him, with 22 percent.

“She’s up there as a real competitor and a real contender,” said Republican pollster Randy Gutermuth, who is unaffiliated with any of the presidential candidates. “This would indicate that she’s going to be a real player in Iowa.”

Former Godfather’s CEO Herman Cain, who has never held public office but has found a following among tea party supporters, comes in third, with 10 percent.

Still, it’s way too early to know whether or not these folks won’t go for Romney when it comes to caucus for a candidate or cast their ballot. My guess is many will because they want to beat Obama and Romney is really the only one who can make a stand. But the parallels between 2004 when Dems were completely uninspired by a Massachusetts politician and this year when Repubs seem to be completely uninspired by a Massachusetts politician are pretty apparent.

And with the GDP growing and the stock market having its best month in 25 years…it’s going to be tougher to hit Obama with the economy if positive signs keep popping up.

Potentially tough road ahead for the GOP.

After Warren Buffett spoke out about taxing the rich more, the rich were polled and overwhelmingly agreed with the billionaire.

Here’s more from Wall Street Journal:

A new survey from Spectrem Group found that 68% of millionaires (those with investments of $1 million or more) support raising taxes on those with $1 million or more in income. Fully 61% of those with net worths of $5 million or more support the tax on million-plus earners. [...]

Explains George Walper of Spectrem: “What this tells us is that there are a number of wealthy folks who said: ‘Gee, we need to increase taxes to stimulate the economy. No one likes to be taxed more, but the reality is maybe it has to be done.’ ”

Walper added that he was also surprised at the positive reactions to Buffett’s political agenda. “I thought that among this group there would be a feeling of ‘why doesn’t he keep his nose out of it?’”

Pretty astonishing, right?

And I think it’s also important to note what people said who favored more taxes and what people said who didn’t.

First the pro-Buffett crowd…

“When you have someone who made four and a half billion pay fifteen percent, and because it’s a hedge fund, I have a problem with that.”

“Quite frankly if Warren Buffett gets taxed an extra fifty thousand dollars or your typical investor of two hundred and fifty [thousand] or larger has to pay an extra thousand dollars in tax; It’s not gonna change his lifestyle. Whatever he or she was gonna buy, he or she is gonna buy.”

“I think theoretically it would be good for this country and put some more money in the coffers, personally it wouldn’t be good for my family so I’m kind of at conflict between self interest and what might be good for the country.”

Now the anti-Buffett crowd…

“I think some of that spirit of America is lost when you start penalizing so to speak, the folks who have more.”

“I think there should be a voluntary check box on the tax form that says, if you would like to send in more please do.”

“For myself, if there were an increase in taxes, I’m probably gonna button up some spending.”

By the way…how priceless is the first anti-Buffett quote?

Yeah, our American spirit will really be diminished if the rich start paying taxes on investments and dividends that Reagan proposed. Sure.

Analysis soon, but first the numbers…

I continue to be surprised by the sudden rise of Herman Cain. Here’s a guy who has said some unbelievably wacky things on the campaign trail, is just as vague and unfocused as Rick Perry, and yet he seems to be bullet proof when it comes to polling.

In some ways it reminds me of Howard Dean’s rise in 2004 when many anti-war Dems sided with him as an alternative to John Kerry. And that’s what’s really going on here. Because even though Cain’s faults are glaringly obvious, the Tea Party favoring Cain almost 2 to 1 over Romney…

That’s right Republicans…welcome to your brave new world. Cain is the Tea Party’s candidate.

Still, is he really a viable candidate? Reports of his non-existent campaign are already casting heavy doubts as to whether or not he can actually get out the vote when the primary season begins. And then there’s Karl Rove, who is trying to single-handedly scuttle Cain’s campaign.

So, my guess…eventually Cain will implode because of something he says or work he’s not doing on the ground in key, early primary states.

But until then we’re going to enjoy the ride.

It’s amazing what a couple of mediocre debate performances can do to a guy. And I’m talking about both Perry and Cain.

From Rasmussen:

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Iowa caucus-goers shows that Cain is in front with 28% followed by former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney at 21%. Congressman Ron Paul is a distant third at 10% followed by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 9%, Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann at 8%, and Texas Governor Rick Perry at 7%. The sixth place finish for Perry is a sharp decline from early September when Perry was the frontrunner both nationally and in Iowa. (To see survey question wording, click here).

The numbers from September’s Rasmussen poll? Perry 29%, Bachmann 18%, Romney 17%, Paul 14%, Rick Santorum 4%, Herman Cain 4%, Jon Huntsman 3%, Newt Gingrich 2%.

That’s right, Cain and Perry pretty much switched places.

Why? I have no idea. Well, accept that Cain won that Florida straw poll over Perry and made national headlines because the media didn’t think it was going to happen. Why? Because they weren’t paying attention? Or they just wanted to hammer Perry over his first debate performance? Who knows.

Either way, Herman Cain has been the benefactor of all of the negative Perry coverage…not Romney.

More as it develops…

How much of a toss up is the GOP nomination right now in these early stages? The title says it all.

Here’s the graph from Gallup, and note how far Rick Perry has fallen.

Forgive me, but this is the type of horserace stuff I find extremely interesting. Because while Herman Cain’s numbers may be the big story here…I think there are two numbers that mean much more.

First, Ron Paul dropped 5 points. Yes, that may not seem like much, but we’re talking nearly 30% of his support.

Second, note the undecided column has jumped by 10%. So GOPers shifted away from Perry, away from Romney, away from Paul and to Cain, but away from EVERYBODY.

I don’t see anybody entering the race at this point since Palin has said she’s done, and there’s a big time enthusiasm gap right now. And with Iowa’s caucuses likely being pushed to December because of all of the primary moves recently, there’s not much time to organize and make things happen.

Do know I think Romney will take it and ultimately lose because he’s the John Kerry of the Republican party…only less politically successful…but it’s an interesting trend nonetheless.

Oh, and Herman Cain doesn’t have a chance in hell to get the nomination. Count on that.

Apparently people are kind of tired of Mitt Romney.

The graph…

That’s an notable swing and it suggests that Perry is really making waves with diehard conservatives.

Another notable trend…Ron Paul’s support continues to grow…and outpaces Bachmann’s.

So it sees like the GOP nomination is between a few players. Romney, Perry, Paul and Bachmann. Perhaps Romney will cozy up to Paul to pull in those frustrated Repubs who believe in “liberty” and want to make a difference? Or he’ll just let Perry implode on his own rhetoric.

Still, I wouldn’t want to be Mitt right now. Few are excited about what he has to say. My advice…get out there and start talking about what you would do for the country. Take media cycle after media cycle from Perry. And do it soon.

Your thoughts?

According to a new CNN poll, Republicans favorability ratings are tanking…

A lot of that anger seems directed toward the GOP. According to the survey, favorable views of the Republican party dropped eight points over the past month, to 33 percent. Fifty-nine percent say they have an unfavorable view of the Republican party, an all-time high dating back to 1992 when the question was first asked.

The poll indicates that views of the Democratic party, by contrast, have remained fairly steady, with 47 percent saying they have a favorable view of the Democrats and an equal amount saying they hold an unfavorable view.

“The Democratic party, which had a favorable rating just a couple of points higher than the GOP in July, now has a 14-point advantage over the Republican party,” adds [CNN Polling Director Keating] Holland.

Not much tea partying in the streets these days. In fact, their numbers are nearly as bad as Repubs. 31% have a favorable view, while 51% have an unfavorable. There are 18% still outstanding who either haven’t heard of the Tea Party or have no opinion, but if that splits down the middle, you’re looking at 40% favorable and 60% unfavorable. Not good numbers for the newcumbents.

Adding more drama to proceedings…it doesn’t look like Americans want to reelect their congressional reps…

Only 41 percent of people questioned say the lawmaker in their district in the U.S. House of Representatives deserves to be re-elected – the first time ever in CNN polling that that figure has dropped below 50 percent. Forty-nine percent say their representative doesn’t deserve to be re-elected in 2012. And with ten percent unsure, it’s the first time that a majority has indicated that they would boot their representative out of office if they had the chance today.

“That 41 percent, in the polling world, is an amazing figure. Throughout the past two decades, in good times and bad, Americans have always liked their own member of Congress despite abysmal ratings for Congress in general,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. “Now anti-incumbent sentiment is so strong that most Americans are no longer willing to give their own representative the benefit of the doubt. If that holds up, it could be an early warning of an electorate that is angrier than any time in living memory.”

How does that break out by party?

Here are the Dem numbers…

And here are the Repubs’…

Nobody loves the Dems, but note their numbers have improved.

Meanwhile, Repubs have dropped like a rock.

More as it develops…