First, the numbers…

The bigger news here? Independents are swinging wildly in favor of the generic Republicans.

There’s about a year to go before the 2010 elections, but this shift does not bode well for Dems. I still don’t think that Repubs can regain any majorities, but if we start seeing more Independents breaking right, it could be a very bad night for the donkeys.

More as it develops…

As I’ve said numerous times before, voters aren’t stupid. They know who piloted our economic collapse last year and it’s going to be extremely hard for Republicans to convince them otherwise.

Still, it is kind of telling that Republicans blame Obama more for the economy than Bush, even though it’s by a very small 6 point margin. I mean, come on folks…we’re 10 months in and you REALLY believe that Obama is the reason why we’re still only treading water?

Also note how the number of Republicans is skewing the total to be 7 points more than what Independents think. Because that number is really what you should be looking at since they’ll determine whether or not Republicans make serious gains in 2010. And since the economy is bound to be the #1 issue at that time, this doesn’t bode well for the GOP.

Still, I predict that if the economy doesn’t get better by this time next year Obama and Bush will be even. At least among Indies. Because at that point it’ll be about 20 months in and, fair or not, Obama will own it.

But what do you think? When will Obama own the economy in swing voters’ minds?

As we head to Election Day 2009, everyone is talking about the Yankees and the Phillies. And a few people are talking about the Mayoral race in NYC, where independent candidate Mike Bloomberg is poised to become the first independent mayor of New York, running on the Independence Party (Column C) and Republican lines. But not Karl Rove. Kind of a big omission, don’t you think? Check out Jon Noltie’s Examiner article. However, other independent and Independence-backed candidates in New Jersey, New York and Virginia are soaking up the ink. See today’s news for independent voters below:

• Tuesday’s Elections and the Democratic Agenda (By KARL ROVE, Wall Street Journal) A year ago, Democrats crowed that Mr. Obama had reshaped the political landscape to their advantage. Voters have lived under Democratic rule for nine months, and many of them, especially independents, don’t like what they’re seeing.
• Strength of independent candidates indicates GOP missing opportunity (Columbus Republican Examiner, by Jon Noltie) In 2 of the 3 most watched electoral races this year, the GOP stands a good chance of losing due to the strength of independent candidates, in addition to not even fielding a candidate in the New York City mayoral race.
• Dividing And Conquering In State Races (John Zogby, Forbes)
• Quinnipiac Sees a Different New Jersey Race Than Rasmussen, PPP (National Review)
• Corzine Up 5 Points In New Jersey Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Governor Tops Christie On ‘Honesty’ Score (Quinnipiac) Corzine leads 79 – 8 percent among Democratic likely voters, with 10 percent for Daggett. Christie leads 79 – 7 percent among Republicans, with 9 percent for Daggett, and 45 – 30 percent among independent voters, with 20 percent for Daggett.
• NJ Gov Poll: Corzine Takes 5-Point Lead (RealClearPolitics)
• Daggett: Republican urged him to quit gov’s race (The Associated Press, Philadelphia Inquirer)

More news for independent voters at The Hankster

Washington – A poll released today by the Club for Growth shows Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman surging into the lead in the special election in New York’s 23rd congressional district to replace John McHugh, the former congressman who recently became Secretary of the Army.

The poll of 300 likely voters, conducted October 24-25, 2009, shows Conservative Doug Hoffman at 31.3%, Democrat Bill Owens at 27.0%, Republican Dede Scozzafava at 19.7%, and 22% undecided. The poll’s margin of error is +/- 5.66%. No information was provided about any of the candidates prior to the ballot question.

This is the third poll done for the Club for Growth in the NY-23 special election, and Doug Hoffman is the only candidate to show an increase in his support levels in each successive poll. The momentum in the race is clearly with Hoffman.

This result stands in contracts to the other recent polls conducted in the race, which seemed to show that the Democratic candidate was benefiting from a divided Republican electorate:

Of course, it’s worth noting that there are obvious reasons to discount the Daily Kos poll, and there are some serious doubts about the Club for Growth poll as well.

For one thing, Basswood Research appears to be an exclusively Republican polling firm and there’s absolutely no indication that it’s methodology is accurate or reliable.

For another, the 5 3/4% margin of error is unusually high, and means that the numbers themselves give no indication of who might be in the lead.

Finally, with one-fifth of the electorate undecided, a number that doesn’t seem to have changed all that much from the previous polls, it’s pretty clear that this race is far from being decided.

Personally, I’m going to wait until we get a poll from an unbiased source like Siena College to see where this race might really be going.

Despite the election of Barack Obama and the continuing misfortunes of the GOP, the United States is still a center-right country:

PRINCETON, NJ — Conservatives continue to outnumber moderates and liberals in the American populace in 2009, confirming a finding that Gallup first noted in June. Forty percent of Americans describe their political views as conservative, 36% as moderate, and 20% as liberal. This marks a shift from 2005 through 2008, when moderates were tied with conservatives as the most prevalent group.

The 2009 data are based on 16 separate Gallup surveys conducted from January through September, encompassing more than 5,000 national adults per quarter. Conservatives have been the dominant ideological group each quarter, with between 39% and 41% of Americans identifying themselves as either “very conservative” or “conservative.” Between 35% and 37% of Americans call themselves “moderate,” while the percentage calling themselves “very liberal” or “liberal” has consistently registered between 20% and 21% — making liberals the smallest of the three groups.

Changes among political independents appear to be the main reason the percentage of conservatives has increased nationally over the past year: the 35% of independents describing their views as conservative in 2009 is up from 29% in 2008. By contrast, among Republicans and Democrats, the percentage who are “conservative” has increased by one point each.

As is typical in recent years, Republicans are far more unified in their political outlook than are either independents or Democrats. While 72% of Republicans in 2009 call their views conservative, independents are closely split between the moderate and conservative labels (43% and 35%, respectively). Democrats are about evenly divided between moderates (39%) and liberals (37%).

This isn’t really a surprise, it’s pretty similar to what we’ve seen from the public before, and it sends a signal to the GOP:

As I have noted repeatedly, data from the 2008 exit polling showed that more people considered themselves “conservative” than “liberal.” This new Gallup poll is in accord with that.

This goes straight to NY-23, where both the DCCC and NRCC are attacking Doug Hoffman, the conservative candidate. Apparently, unlike the NRCC, the DCCC sees a path to victory for Doug Hoffman.

When the GOP paints a clearly distinct picture of ideas and issues from the Democrats, they win. Voters do not want to vote for Democrat-lite when they get have the real thing. Instead, the GOP should present and alternative, better vision of moving this country forward.

I agree that far, but that strategy has to recognize that the “alternative, better vision of moving this country forward” may not be the same in, say, New Jersey as it is in Alabama.

The mistake that most on the right will make upon seeing a poll like this is to believe that it confirms that America is, mostly, just like them and that what the GOP needs to do is become more conservative. Past results, and other polls, however, would clearly indicate that isn’t the case.

In Virginia, for example, Bob McDonnell is succeeding not because he has run on a hard-right platform, but because he’s done a much better job of communicating alternative Republican solutions to the problems that Virginians are facing. Those ideas can largely be described as “conservative,” but they aren’t ideologically extreme in any respect, and they are packaged in a way is attractive to the generally center-right voters in areas like Northern Virginia. Except for the amazingly unsuccessful negative campaign that Democrat Creigh Deeds has been running, here’s been no talk of issues like abortion or gay marriage, and it’s pretty darn significant that the McDonnell campaign didn’t both to request a visit from conservative icon Sarah Palin — largely because they know that her presence would do as much to turn off the moderate voters McDonnell needs as it would to fire up the conservatives he already has.

There’s a lesson for the left here as well, but it can be seen in the declining poll numbers for the President, and the increasing sense that he’s been governing as something other than the moderate he campaign as in 2008.

Personally, I doubt either side will learn the right lesson from these numbers.

Here’s the graph from Gallup:

This creates a bit of an interesting predicament. Should Obama simply push forward with his initiatives and let the polls be damned or can he risk losing independents in front of a tough 2012 fight? I guess it depends on whether or not he can lose independents or not.

Still, this drop isn’t the largest in a President’s first term. That honor is still held by Harry Truman and I doubt anybody will be beating him soon…

-19% in 6 months time?

Yikes!

I suppose it’s possible, but more and more evidence is pointing to the contrary.

Here’s some telling info from a Washington Post/ABC News poll out yesterday…

Poll respondents are evenly divided when asked whether they have confidence in Obama to make the right decisions for the country’s future, but just 19 percent express confidence in the Republicans in Congress to do so. Even among Republicans, only 40 percent express confidence in the GOP congressional leadership to make good choices.

Only 20 percent of adults identify themselves as Republicans, little changed in recent months, but still the lowest single number in Post-ABC polls since 1983. Political independents continue to make up the largest group, at 42 percent of respondents; 33 percent call themselves Democrats.

The wide gap in partisan leanings and the lack of confidence in the GOP carries into early assessments of the November 2010 midterm elections: Fifty-one percent say they would back the Democratic candidate in their congressional district if the elections were held now, while 39 percent would vote for the Republican. Independents split 45 percent for the Democrat, 41 percent for the Republican.

There’s some pretty startling numbers in there and the GOP should definitely be concerned.

• When less than 20% of the voting population has confidence in your leadership abilities and only 40% of your own diehards trust your opinion, you know something’s wrong. I’ve been saying this time and time again over the past 9 months, but the Republicans can’t just be the opposition party. They need a new Contract With America…and fast.
• Only 20% of voters ID as Repubs. 13% more ID as Dems. That’s a huge gap. And if Dems pass health care reform with some key Repub votes, expect the gap to get bigger since Indys will view the legislation as bipartisan as was possible.
• On a generic ballot, voters go for Dems by 12%. That’s landslide territory. And Indys would have to break for Repubs almost two to one to make up the gap. We all know that won’t happen.

Now, do I think the GOP may gain a few seats next Fall? Quite possibly. But the balance of power should remain roughly where it is right now.

More as it develops…

Gallup has some numbers that might surprise.

Basically, the folks who decide the elections (the indys) are starting to consider the Republicans more and Dems better pay attention. Because the only reason they made such historic gains in 2006 is because the DNC targeted districts that wanted more moderate leadership and took seats from the GOP.

More from Gallup:

The last time Republicans were this close to Democrats in terms of total party support — during the second quarter of 2005 — George W. Bush was in the early months of his second term as president. But the Bush administration suffered a series of setbacks that year, including ongoing difficulty in stabilizing Iraq, a slow response to Hurricane Katrina, and the ultimately withdrawn nomination of Harriet Miers to the Supreme Court, to name a few. Rising gas prices and a struggling economy only added to the problems plaguing the Bush administration during Bush’s second term in office.

Still, Dems don’t have to worry about a President’s approval rating dragging them down. At least not yet.

More numbers…

Bush’s job approval rating sank over the course of 2005, from 52% at the start of the year to 43% by late December, including several sub-40% ratings in the fall. By the end of 2006, it had fallen to 35%, and it never again exceeded 38%.

During this time, an increasing number of Americans began to align themselves with the Democratic Party. The Democratic advantage in leaned party ID grew to as large as 14 percentage points in the fourth quarter of 2006 and again in the first quarter of 2008 — the largest gap in favor of either party since Gallup began regularly measuring leaned party identification in 1991. Democrats maintained a double-digit lead for 11 of 12 quarters between the second quarter of 2006 and the first quarter of 2009. This solid edge in party support helped propel the Democratic Party to major victories in the 2006 and 2008 federal elections.

No doubt the GOP will be hard pressed to gain seats next Fall, but could they gain a few?

I welcome your thoughts.

It’s pretty easy…the only people that voters like less than Congressional Democrats and Congressional Republicans.

Add in the facts that Republicans have no coherent plan, no definitive leadership and are allowing right wing pundits to organize and promote this Tea Party movement and you have a reality where Dems might actually pick up seats next year.

Personally I think it’ll be a wash, but let’s take a look at what the Independents in a recent Research 2000 poll had to say about Dems and Repubs.

• Nancy Pelosi
  22 Favorable, 71 Unfavorable
• Harry Reid
  27 Fav, 65 Un
• Mitch McConnell
  10 Fav, 73 Un
• John Boehner
  3 Fav, 70 Un
• Congressional Dems
  32 Fav, 65 Un
• Congressional Repubs
  9 Fav, 76 Un

And before you say this is just one poll…here’s another one from Gallup…

Last, and I think this fact sometimes gets lost in the shuffle, Americans remember who was at the helm when the train derailed. Also, it’s not like Dems are running Congress in some woefully inept manner. Are they bipartisan? For the most part, no. But, again, the only people voters think are less bipartisan than Congressional Dems are…you guessed it.

So to all of my fellow politicos who claim that Dems are in for historic defeats next year…you might want to pay less attention to the Tea Partiers and more attention to the swing voters.

Public Policy Polling pitted the top Republicans (including Jeb Bush) against Obama in a hypothetical matchup and found that the former Arkansas Governor’s folksy ways puts him at the top of the pack. And this makes sense. Huckabee is amiable, has some ideas that at least sound new (get rid of the IRS, FAIR tax) and…ummm…did I mention he’s folksy?

From PPP:

Huckabee comes the closest, trailing Obama 48-41. In the six months PPP has run this poll he has been the most competitive Republican every time. Obama’s lead has increased from 47-44 over the former Arkansas Governor a month ago.

Mitt Romney does next best, down 48-39. In some ways he looks like a stronger general candidate than a primary one though. He has the best favorability of the GOP quartet with Democrats and independents, but only 50% of Republicans have a positive opinion of him compared to 70% for Mike Huckabee and 69% for Sarah Palin. Will he be able to connect well enough with the GOP base to snag the nomination?

And here’s how they all break out:

• Obama/Huckabee – 48/41 – Obama +7
• Obama/Romney – 48/39 – Obama +9
• Obama/Bush – 50/37 – Obama +13
• Obama/Palin – 53/38 – Obama + 15

Yes, the thought of Palin scares more people than the thought of another Bush. But both campaigns are DOA. Guaranteed.

To me, the Romney/Huckabee matchup will be the story. Huckabee obviously has the base locked up tight because he’s so overtly religious, but he scares independents. So he’ll have to do a lot of work to reach out to moderates. Still, it won’t be easy. However, even though Romney appeals to fiscal independents, the base doesn’t trust him. Romney’s saving grace? Palin. She could fragment Huckabee’s support just enough to let the more moderate Romney run away with it…much like Edwards did to Clinton so Obama could thread the needle.

Regardless, I’m anxious for 2012. Can you tell? :-)

“…the situation this summer has slipped completely out of control for President Obama and Congressional Democrats. Today, The Cook Political Report’s Congressional election model, based on individual races, is pointing toward a net Democratic loss of between six and 12 seats, but our sense, factoring in macro-political dynamics is that this is far too low.

Many veteran Congressional election watchers, including Democratic ones, report an eerie sense of déjà vu, with a consensus forming that the chances of Democratic losses going higher than 20 seats is just as good as the chances of Democratic losses going lower than 20 seats. A new Gallup poll that shows Congress’ job disapproval at 70 percent among independents should provide little solace to Democrats. In the same poll, Congressional approval among independents is at 22 percent, with 31 percent approving overall, and 62 percent disapproving.”

This is consistent with my expectations for 2010. There is no realistic likelihood of the GOP regaining a majority in either the House or Senate, but they are certain to cut into the Democratic majorities. This is also consistent with history, as the party out of power will usually pick up seats in the midterm election of a first term President (GWB being a notable exception).

If I was a betting man, I’d put the over/under at a net 12 seat gain for the GOP in the House of Representatives. Looks like Charlie Cook is setting the early line at 20 seats. This is surprising, as it is comparable to the Democratic Party gains in 2008 when they had everything going in their favor.

Charlie also notes that this sentiment in the electorate may effect our congresscritters behavior when they return from recess.

We’ll see how it develops… Cheers.

47% don’t think he is.

29% are unsure.

That leaves less than a quarter (24%) who believe he is.

Also, only 54% of all North Carolina voters think he’s actually a citizen.

Wow.

Public Policy Polling has more…

Continued look at who independent voters are/are not and Obama’s poll numbers…

• A reminder: Most ‘independent’ voters aren’t (LA Times/Top of the Ticket)
• Sick and Tired of Republicans and Democrats? New Parties Say They Offer Alternatives (By James King, Phoenix News Times)
• Pa.’s Sestak plans Tuesday announcement (USA Today)
• Poll: Pennsylvania ranks 20th most Democratic state in the nation (Erik Westervelt, Phildadelphia Opinion Polls Examiner)
• Political Party Affiliation: 30 States Blue, 4 Red in ‘09 So Far (by Jeffrey M. Jones, Gallup)
• Zogby/O’Leary Poll Reveals Majority of Voters Will Oppose Senators Who Vote to Confirm an Anti-Second Amendment Supreme Court Nominee (Press Release)  NOTE: Included here because the Zogby/O’Leary poll purports to speak for independents…
• Obama’s Ratings Slide Across the Board – The Economy, Health Care Reform and Gates Grease the Skids (Pew Research)

SCHWARZENEGGER/OPEN PRIMARIES

Calif Gov Arnold Schwarzenegger is determined to leave a legacy of reform — particularly open primaries, which would give more power to voters

• Schwarzenegger is unpopular but undaunted (George Skelton, Capitol Journal, LA Times)
• A State of Confusion editorial: State needs fixes to avoid a repeat (Sac Bee) As for the Legislature itself, an open primary in place of the partisan nominating system we have now might help elect more moderate lawmakers and lead to a more consensus-oriented body.

For more independent news, see The Hankster, where the independents are.

I think this is mostly due to the fact that Republicans still aren’t proposing viable solutions. And that’s probably because they lack any true leadership right now.

Also, whether they want to admit it or not, last election the electorate shifted significantly left and nothing suggests it’ll switch back. True, some of the anti-deficit crowd may be very vocal, but being loud doesn’t mean you’re the majority.

So until Repubs can come up with some new ideas to excite the moderates and conservative Dems, well, this map will continue to stay blue.

Less than half.

Good god.

This is after we found out that a majority of Republicans either don’t think or aren’t sure that Obama is a United States citizen.

(h/t: Political Wire)

Here’s the question and the party breakdowns…

“Do you believe that Barack Obama was born in the United States of America or not?”

Republicans
Yes: 42%
No: 28%
Not Sure: 30%

Democrats
Yes: 94%
No: 4%
Not Sure: 3%

Independents
Yes: 83%
No: 8%
Not Sure: 9%

When all the numbers are put together we see that 77% say Yes, 11% say No and 12% say Not Sure.

Amazing.

These things tend to ebb and flow, but it appears as if the health care debate (and probably the Gates incident) has really taken a toll on his popularity among independents and moderate Dems. Because those are the folks who usually keep his numbers closer to the mid 60s.

First, there’s Gallup which shows Obama at 52%…

Then NBC/WSJ:

The poll also finds that Obama’s overall job-approval rating has dropped to 53 percent. And it shows a public that has grown increasingly concerned about the federal government’s spending as the administration defends its $787 billion economic stimulus and supports a $1 trillion-plus health-care bill.

Last CBS/NY Times:

Mr. Obama’s job approval rating has dropped 10 points, to 58 percent, from a high point in April.

So why do I say “free fall?”

Well, the trend is obviously going down and there’s nothing to suggest that it’ll pick back up. And I can’t help but think it’ll continue to drop as the health care fight gets bloodier, which is inevitable at this point. Too much money involved and not enough correct info out there about what reform really means.

Essentially, Repubs are winning the health care battle right now and Obama’s popularity is getting hit for it, even with bi-partisan legislation on its way in both the House and the Senate.

More as it develops…

A new NBC/WSJ poll has some sobering news for both of the 2012 hopefuls.

From MSNBC:

Palin stepped down from office on Sunday, and could be eyeing a presidential bid in 2012. But according to the poll, a whopping 67 percent of Americans — and 43 percent of Republicans — say they would not like to see her president someday.

By comparison, 50 percent of the public — and 33 percent of Republicans — say they don’t want to see Mitt Romney, another possible 2012 contender, become president.

I’ve always thought Palin was box office poison when it came to the national stage, but these numbers about Romney surprise me. 33 percent? Really?

Maybe a guy like Pawlenty could breakthrough in 2012 after all.

Honestly, I’ve been less and less inclined to believe Rasmussen’s number over the past few months since they’ve shown extremely high negatives for Obama when no other polls were showing the same.

And now we have Obama tied with Romney for 2012 after the President has made virtually no big missteps?

Hmmm…

Not only that, Obama only bests Sarah Palin by 6%, in a 48% to 42% race?

Come on…

Here are some more suspect numbers…

When Romney is the Republican nominee, he beats Obama among unaffiliated voters 48% to 41%. But when Palin is the GOP candidate, unaffiliated voters prefer Obama by a 47% to 41% margin.

Men prefer the Republican over Obama whether it’s Romney or Palin, while women like the president better in both match-ups. Palin continues to fare more poorly among women than her male rivals.

Obama is only pulling 41% of Indys when pitted against Romney? And Palin pulls 41%?

Sure, Independents are wary of Obama right now, but he hasn’t dropped that far out of favor.

Also, Independents fear Palin like the plague. There’s no way they’ve swung back this much for her after this disastrous last month. Not a chance.

Do know that I’m more than willing to accept that Obama’s number have slipped, but not by this much and this fast. No way, no how.