All good movement today for Obama, and I can’t help but think this is linked to his infomerical on Wednesday.
The biggest news here I think is that Obama is up by 8 in Gallup’s traditional model, with Obama hitting his high of 51% and McCain hitting his low of 43%. That’s extremely bad news for [...]

Obama - 51%
McCain - 47%
McCain gains one to regain the total he had a couple days ago. But this looks like it’s probably the most he can get, as the remaining 2% will go to Barr, Nader, etc.
And to that point…
The tightening comes entirely from McCain solidifying his support. The Arizona Senator has reached the [...]

Bloomberg lays out the very difficult road ahead for John McCain if he hopes to win this election. Simply, no candidate has ever won the presidency after being this far down in the polls, this close to the election.
The plethora of polls with varying margins between the candidates makes it hard to know exactly how [...]

Chuck Todd and Joe Scarborough break it down…

Do note how Mike Murphy says, “I think they’re smoking crack,” when he talks about McCain trying to get Iowa. I still don’t get why McCain is paying any attention to that state.
Long story short…it’ll be incredibly tough.

Some good and bad movement for both candidates today, but the biggest pro-Obama movement comes in the model where McCain was closest.
Perhaps the past couple days were just a momentary blip? Because it doesn’t look like McCain has been able to keep any sort of advantage he gained.
Registered Voters: Obama +8

Likely Voters (Expanded Model): Obama [...]

A bit of a surprise today, especially with the Pennsylvania and Minnesota numbers. Because I think this is one of the first polls I’ve seen that suggests those races are even close.
Pennsylvania: Obama +4
Obama: 47%
McCain: 43%
Minnesota: Obama + 8
Obama: 48%
McCain: 40%
Arizona: McCain +4
McCain: 48%
Obama: 44%
Frankly, I don’t buy the PA or MN numbers since they [...]

Obama - 51%
McCain - 46%
McCain loses one and Obama gains one to stop McCain’s gains…at least for one day.
Rasmussen has the trends and such…
This is the 35th straight day that Obama’s support has been between 50% and 52%. With the exception of yesterday, McCain’s support has stayed between 44% and 46% during that stretch.
Within their [...]

The big news here is that Colorado is really starting to turn blue, and nearly every news organization has changed it to lean Obama.
Because while wins in Georgia and Missouri would be nice, Obama doesn’t need them. But he does need wins in Colorado, Virginia and Nevada if he doesn’t want to worry about Ohio, [...]

Quinnipiac thinks it’s too little too late for McCain in Ohio and Pennsylvania, but thinks he could pull it off in Florida. I still don’t think Obama can pull Ohio off, but I’m willing to be wrong. :-)
The numbers and cross tabs…

Florida: Obama +2
Obama: 47%
McCain: 45%
(Obama was ahead by 5)
Among those who say they already [...]

Good signs on the state level (.pdf), even if Obama’s numbers are slipping a bit nationally in the past couple days.
Colorado: Obama +9
Obama: 50%
McCain: 41%
Florida: Obama + 2
Obama: 45%
McCain: 43%
Nevada: Obama +12
Obama: 52%
McCain: 40%
New Hampshire: Obama +18
Obama: 55%
McCain: 37%
North Carolina: Obama +2
Obama: 48%
McCain: 46%
Ohio: Obama +7
Obama: 48%
McCain: 41%
Pennsylvania: Obama +12
Obama: 52%
McCain: 40%
Virginia: Obama + 7
Obama: [...]

All positive movement for Obama today as he gains 2 in the registered model, stays the same in the likely expanded and gains 1 in the likely traditional.
But again, since Rasmussen’s numbers have tightened, I have to think that if Obama starts to dip below 49% in Gallup’s other two models, the face is changing [...]

Obama - 50%
McCain - 47%
Obama loses one and McCain gains one as the numbers tighten further today.
For the moment it appears as if McCain’s “socialist” attacks are working, and I can’t help but think that the 2001 audio from Monday has had a small effect on the race. But then again…that’s what October surprises do. [...]

Obama drops a big net 3 points today in all the models, but still maintains a sizeable lead in two of them.
However, with the margin narrowing in Rasmussen’s poll too, we could be seeing a last minute tightening after McCain’s attacks on spreading the wealth.
Registered Voters: Obama +7

Likely Voters (Expanded Model): Obama +7

Likely Voters (Traditional [...]

Looks like that early voting strategy is really working out for the Dems and could literally give Obama a 19% edge with 31% of the voting population.
Here are the numbers…
Obama holds a 53% to 34% lead among the sizable minority of voters (15%) who say they have already voted.
Among those who plan to [...]

Obama - 51%
McCain - 46%
McCain gains one as we’re just a week away from the biggest game in town.
Rasmussen talks battlegrounds and electoral projections…
Battleground state polls released yesterday showed Obama leading in Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. With these latest results, Rasmussen Reports has moved Florida from “Toss-Up” to “Leans Democratic.”
In Missouri and North Carolina, [...]

The answer is yes.
They’re all dead wrong.
Pollster’s poll of polls is wrong too…

And so is Real Clear Politics…

McCain is gonna pull this one off folks.
Drudge can feel it!

Obama gains 1 in the registered model and likely expanded model, and maintains his 5 point lead in the traditional likely model.
What’s more, he has hit the 53% mark in the expanded likely model, and there are no signs of McCain even coming close to making a dent in his lead.
The numbers…
Registered Voters: Obama +10

Likely [...]

Obama - 51%
McCain - 46%
Obama loses one and McCain gains two today as the numbers tighten a bit more than we’ve seen recently in one day of polling. Usually you see a 1 or 2 point shift.
Some crosstabs…

Obama now wins 11% of Republican votes.

McCain gets 10% of Democrats.

The candidates are essentially even among unaffiliated voters.

Obama [...]

Mason/Dixon
McCain - 49%
Obama - 43%
It’s pretty astonishing that Georgia is even in leaners column at this point. This state hasn’t gone blue since 1976.
And with early voting seemingly favoring Dems, McCain has a fight on his hands that he most likely never anticipated.
In fact, a recent poll showed Obama with a 1 point advantage.
Long [...]

Yes, Palin’s on the list, but she ranks third behind Romney and Huckabee. And with a field like that, does she really think she can overcome the perceptions that have formed about her during this election cycle?
From Newsweek:
If John McCain is not elected president, which one of the following three possible candidates would you be [...]