All positive movement for Obama today as he gains 2 in the registered model, stays the same in the likely expanded and gains 1 in the likely traditional.
But again, since Rasmussen’s numbers have tightened, I have to think that if Obama starts to dip below 49% in Gallup’s other two models, the face is changing [...]

Obama - 50%
McCain - 47%
Obama loses one and McCain gains one as the numbers tighten further today.
For the moment it appears as if McCain’s “socialist” attacks are working, and I can’t help but think that the 2001 audio from Monday has had a small effect on the race. But then again…that’s what October surprises do. [...]

Obama drops a big net 3 points today in all the models, but still maintains a sizeable lead in two of them.
However, with the margin narrowing in Rasmussen’s poll too, we could be seeing a last minute tightening after McCain’s attacks on spreading the wealth.
Registered Voters: Obama +7

Likely Voters (Expanded Model): Obama +7

Likely Voters (Traditional [...]

Looks like that early voting strategy is really working out for the Dems and could literally give Obama a 19% edge with 31% of the voting population.
Here are the numbers…
Obama holds a 53% to 34% lead among the sizable minority of voters (15%) who say they have already voted.
Among those who plan to [...]

Obama - 51%
McCain - 46%
McCain gains one as we’re just a week away from the biggest game in town.
Rasmussen talks battlegrounds and electoral projections…
Battleground state polls released yesterday showed Obama leading in Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. With these latest results, Rasmussen Reports has moved Florida from “Toss-Up” to “Leans Democratic.”
In Missouri and North Carolina, [...]

The answer is yes.
They’re all dead wrong.
Pollster’s poll of polls is wrong too…

And so is Real Clear Politics…

McCain is gonna pull this one off folks.
Drudge can feel it!

Obama gains 1 in the registered model and likely expanded model, and maintains his 5 point lead in the traditional likely model.
What’s more, he has hit the 53% mark in the expanded likely model, and there are no signs of McCain even coming close to making a dent in his lead.
The numbers…
Registered Voters: Obama +10

Likely [...]

Obama - 51%
McCain - 46%
Obama loses one and McCain gains two today as the numbers tighten a bit more than we’ve seen recently in one day of polling. Usually you see a 1 or 2 point shift.
Some crosstabs…

Obama now wins 11% of Republican votes.

McCain gets 10% of Democrats.

The candidates are essentially even among unaffiliated voters.

Obama [...]

Mason/Dixon
McCain - 49%
Obama - 43%
It’s pretty astonishing that Georgia is even in leaners column at this point. This state hasn’t gone blue since 1976.
And with early voting seemingly favoring Dems, McCain has a fight on his hands that he most likely never anticipated.
In fact, a recent poll showed Obama with a 1 point advantage.
Long [...]

Yes, Palin’s on the list, but she ranks third behind Romney and Huckabee. And with a field like that, does she really think she can overcome the perceptions that have formed about her during this election cycle?
From Newsweek:
If John McCain is not elected president, which one of the following three possible candidates would you be [...]

Okay, they’re not tied, but a 1 point lead for each might as well be tied.
Research 2000
Obama - 48%
McCain - 47%

Mason/Dixon
McCain - 46%
Obama - 45%
And so here we are. Missouri didn’t seem in play in September, but the swing state of all swing states is solidly in the toss up column now.
Still, Obama doesn’t [...]

Obama gains 1 in the registered and likely expanded models, but loses a net 2 points in the traditional model.
Still, he hasn’t fallen below 50% in any of these models, so all of the trends still suggest an easy Obama win in 9 days.
The numbers…
Registered Voters: Obama +910 (Gallup didn’t update their graph so it [...]

I literally took this screen capture two minutes ago.
First, to have North Carolina as solidly Republican is a fantasy. It’s certainly a toss up at this point, and is actually leaning a little towards Obama right now.
Second, O’Reilly still thinks Iowa, Oregon, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania are in the toss up columns? I don’t [...]

Obama - 52%
McCain - 44%
No change today in the public numbers, but the underlying numbers are getting much worse for McCain.
First, McCain’s favorability numbers are starting to drop, while Obama’s are rising…
McCain is now viewed favorably by just 50% of voters and unfavorably by 49%. Those are his lowest ratings since the campaign became [...]

Obama - 52%
McCain - 43%
Want to know how stable Obama’s lead is at this point? Look no further than Virginia. Public Policy Polling ran the numbers back in the early part of October at the numbers were 51 to 43 in favor of Obama.
Virginia’s going blue this election. Count on it.
Some demographic highlights…

He leads 48 [...]

More bad news for McCain today as he’s now below 45% in all the models. At this point in the race, McCain has to start making really big gains to catch up, but it’s just not happening.
And much like Rasmussen suggested, the word for today is “stability.”
The numbers…
Registered Voters: Obama +9

Likely Voters (Expanded Model): Obama [...]

Obama - 52%
McCain - 44%
McCain loses one today as voter preferences are solidifying to the point of being unmovable.
Rasmussen shares the numbers…
However, while the overall levels of support have remained stable, voters have become more certain of their intent. Today, the percentage who say they could still change their mind is down to single [...]

Yesterday, I talked about how the map is predicting an electoral disaster for McCain.
Chuck Todd talks about how NBC’s very conservative map now predicts 286 electoral votes for Obama…

Now do know that Obama only needs Colorado on NBC’s map to win, but they now agree that both Colorado and Virginia are trending towards the Dems.
Meanwhile, [...]

Hi, this is Danielle Ivory at the American News Project in DC. Thanks to Justin Gardner for allowing us to post story items here! We’ll start doing this regularly next week.
Just by way of introduction, the ANP is an independent non-profit video news organization in DC. We produce pieces for the web, but [...]

Some good news for McCain today, but considering he has pulled out of Colorado in favor of Pennsylvania, this poll also surfaces some cold, hard truths about his chances to win.
Ohio: McCain +3
McCain 48%
Obama 45%
Florida: McCain +2
McCain 48%
Obama 46%
Pennsylvania: Obama +7
Obama 50%
McCain 43%
While Obama has had a lot of great polling these past few days, [...]