Public Policy Polling has a couple of new polls out focusing on Virginia. So far, it’s all good news for the Dems.

It is an open question whether there is anything meaningful to be gleaned from polls 20 months out from an election. At least these polls offer a baseline set of numbers to watch when the campaigns kick off in earnest.

For me, The most interesting element of the PPP summary is the highlighted question “…could there actually be a group of independent voters that go Obama/Allen in the interest of divided government?”. Regardless of how you would answer, it is significant that the question of whether independents are consciously making divided government voting decisions is even being asked. As you might expect, I offered my answer in the comments on that post

What seemed likely last fall is now a virtual certainty – the Republicans will retake the Senate majority in 2012. The only way to retain our happily divided government and avoid a rerun of One Party Republican Rule in 2013, will be to re-elect Barack Obama.

Claire McCaskill and other centrist Dems appear to be pushing hard next year for some pretty straightforward steps that create more transparency and accountability when the opposition tries to filibuster. And remember…Dems are they’re likely to lose more seats in 2012…so it’s not like this really helps them if they’re in the minority. Here’s more [...]

If you thought 2010 looked nightmarish for Dems, take a peek at two years from now. No less than 16 23 Dem Senators will be up for reelection. Many A lot are from purple or red states. Here’s the list of the most vulnerable… Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (PA) Thumped Rick Santorum in 2006 by [...]

If the GOP picks up 8 seats to leave the Senate with a 51-49 Democratic majority, the game will be afoot. With four Democratic Senators in play, and only two needed to flip the majority, these Senators will be wrestling with classic Prisoner’s Dilemma.

I did watch the entire debate in stunned, silent horror. Some saw a clear-cut outcome. For me, it was all I could do to write this open letter of sincere condolence to our unfortunate fellow citizens facing this decision in Nevada.

We know why NMA selected her for this treatment. It is because watching our media, NMA determined she must be a big story. The real question – Why is she such a big story here? Why is she getting so much new and old media attention that she pops up on the NMA meme radarscope?

What better day and time to update our “10 in 10? election prognostications? Last we checked in – Nate Silver (our polling analyst of choice) showed that 9 of the 10 seats most likely to change parties were all held by Democrats and he was forecasting a net 6-7 seat Republican gain in the Senate. One month later, with less than a month to go – 10 of the top 10 seats most likely to change parties are all held by Democrats and Nate is forecasting an 8-9 seat gain by the GOP. So – despite the nomination of a GOP clown candidate in Delaware (virtually guaranteeing a Democratic victory in that state) the odds of a GOP Senate takeover continue to improve.

Looks like the Tea Party folks are getting a lot more push back from the GOP then they were expecting. First Mike Castle won’t endorse Christine O’Donnell in Delaware and now Lisa Murkowski is literally trying to win while not being on the ballot. From Anchorage Daily News: Murkowski said she agonized over the decision [...]

t. Carly Fiorina and Barbara Boxer met for their first (and potentially only) debate of the election season. It is one of the “dirty dozen” bubble contests that will determine whether the GOP retakes the majority in the Senate.

My 2010 election prediction: The GOP wins 8 or 9 more Senate seats outright, then takes majority control by flipping Lieberman and/or Nelson. They fall a few seats short in the House and Nancy Pelosi continues as Speaker of the House.

First it was the wishy-washiness of the civil rights act repeal and now it’s criticism of the administration being tough on BP? Watch the video… Here’s the thing…yes, accidents happen on offshore oil rigs. However, most damage is mitigated by appropriate safety measures being put in place to keep spills to a minimum. However, recent [...]

Yes, he said that partisanship was out of control on both sides… “There’s just too much brain-dead partisanship, tactical maneuvering for short-term political advantage rather than focusing on the greater good, and also just strident ideology. The extremes of both parties have to be willing to accept compromises from time to time to make some [...]

Should Ezra Klein’s notion of limiting the use of the filibuster actually find support on the Senate floor, it raises the specter of a simple majority of Republicans in 2015 undoing the Health Care plan that required a 60 vote Democratic plurality in 2009. Definitely in the “be careful what you wish for” category.

They got Ben Nelson. From Wash Post: Sen. Ben Nelson (Neb.), the final Democratic holdout on health care, announced to his colleagues Saturday morning that he would support the Senate reform bill, clearing the way for final passage by Christmas of President Obama’s top domestic policy priority. Asked if he had secured the 60 votes [...]

If I were to guess what the American people are looking to buy, it would be something that can be articulated pretty simply and emerges from some basic American values of fairness and common sense. I’d say it is really about these three things:

1. Every American gets a baseline level of solid health care. No one is left behind.
2. No American need be at risk of financial ruin or bankruptcy because they get sick.
3. The program is manageable and fiscally responsible. Americans want to feel reasonably certain we won’t see mushrooming costs like with Medicare and the prescription drug plan.

That’s it, Mr. President. We don’t need “Free! Free! Free! Preventive Care!” or a set of Ginsu steak knives to sweeten the deal. Put together a package that does these three things, pitch them clearly and simply, and you’ll close the sale.

What’s telling about the conversations surrounding the “evils” of government run health care is how many people seem to reflexively applaud the notion of government staying out of the business of health care…and yet nobody who’s on Medicare wants to get rid of it. Watch the following clip and tell me it’s not frustrating to [...]

The Senate remains the best chance to divide this government in 2012. Predictions three years out are indeed foolish, but barring some as of yet unrevealed scandal close to the President, I expect he will be reelected. The best chance to restore fiscal rationality in 2012 is for Republicans to take the Senate, and that will take two election cycles. A journey of a thousand miles starts with a single step, and the first step is for Republicans to pick up a couple of seats in 2010.

The GOP is finally able to get rid of one of their more embarrassing Senators. The reason? Money… The writing on the wall may have been the news reported Sunday by the Louisville Courier-Journal that more than 100 former Bunning donors have signed up with Secretary of State Trey Grayson, a fellow Republican who has [...]

This is just the Senate Health Committee’s bill, and there will be more to follow. Still, if you want to take a glance… More here.