NBC just called it.

Again, the landslide scenario isn’t happening…yet.

Still…it…is…over.

Check out this exit polling…

– John McCain leads men by 19% in ND, but trails among them by 1% in SD

- McCain leads women by 7% in ND, but trails among them by 4% in SD

- McCain leads Indies by 6% in ND, but trails them by 8% in SD

Now that would be something. Everybody was looking at North Dakota and yet it could be SD to switch?

Wow.

UPDATE:
NBC just called it for McCain.

First Colin Powell endorses.

Then, the former Republican governors of Massachusetts and Minnesota backed Obama.

This time it’s Larry Pressler, the first Vietnam vet to ever win a senate seat. And from a decidedly red state at that.

From Politico:

Pressler, who said that in addition to casting an absentee ballot for Obama he’d donated $500 to the Illinois senator’s campaign, cited the Democrat’s response to the financial crisis as the primary reason for his decision.

“I just got the feeling that Obama will be able to handle this financial crisis better, and I like his financial team of [former Treasury Secretary Robert] Rubin and [former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul] Volcker better,” he said. By contrast, John McCain’s “handling of the financial crisis made me feel nervous.”

The former senator added that he hoped the next president would help place restraints on executive pay, and said: “I don’t think [McCain] will take action in that area, or he’s as likely to.”

True, Pressler hasn’t been in Washington for more than 10 years, but doesn’t mean he’s a lightweight. He was first elected to the House in 1975 and then won his Senate seat in 1979. He lost a reelection bid in 1997 to Democrat Tim Johnson, but he had a couple decades experience.

In any event, we still haven’t seen this type of swing to McCain from any Dems except for Lieberman, and even he’s starting to hedge his bets these days.

The Obamacan ranks keep growing…

I shared some surprising numbers recently that showed Obama leading by 5 in Montana and the two candidates tied in North Dakota…states that went for Bush in 2004 by 20 and 28 points respectively.

Now another state that broke for Bush by 20+ points is seen as a potential pain point for the McCain camp.

The details…

• McCain struggles to secure his base with 71 favoring him, and 21 favoring Obama…
• McCain leads by 14% among men…
• Obama leads by 5% among women…
• McCain’s favorability is 62%, while Obama’s is at 54%…
• 26% think McCain is too old…
• 45% think Obama is too inexperienced…

Now, it’s doubtful that either campaign will spend a ton of money for South Dakota’s 3 electoral votes, but with Obama’s clearly superior ground game…maybe they’ll be able to harness more localized get out of the vote efforts to try and swing it.

More as it develops…

As I’ve pointed out earlier, Obama was never meant to win this contest, but he’ll most likely win Montana.

Regardless of the outcomes tonight, and unfortunately for these two states, they will not be why this night is remembered.

More numbers as they develop…

Let’s review the facts again. A poll in late March/early April showed Obama with a 12 point lead, but 20% were still undecided. The only other poll after that time was the American Research Group’s poll showing a landslide for her today.

Frankly, I don’t really know what to expect tonight, but if anybody tells you that South Dakota has always been in Obama’s column, they don’t know what they’re talking about.

So how did this start? Well, there was a poll conducted in late March/early April by Dakota Wesleyan University that found Obama leading Hillary by 12 points (46 to 34). Here’s what they found at the time…

The poll of 527 North and South Dakota voters conducted from March 24 to April 3 indicated that 46 percent of South Dakota Democrats would vote for Obama in the upcoming June 3 primary, 34 percent for Clinton, and 10 percent are undecided. Of the remaining 10 percent, 6 percent said they would not vote and 4 percent said they would vote for someone else.

If you’re raising an eyebrow at the 20% undecided number, I’m right there with you, but this is the only thing I can find that supports the idea that Obama somehow had South Dakota locked up. There’s nothing else.

Fast forward to today, where American Research Group finds Hillary WAY out ahead in their latest poll, 60 to 34. Obviously I put much more faith in this ARG poll, considering it’s coming out 1 day before the primary and only has 6% undecided.

So, question to all of you…if Hill wins tomorrow in South Dakota, will that be a big upset?