Less than half.
Good god.
This is after we found out that a majority of Republicans either don’t think or aren’t sure that Obama is a United States citizen.
(h/t: Political Wire)

And McAuliffe lost…big time.
Even with all that money spent and Bill Clinton campaigning for him…he only got 26% of the vote.
The Clinton era is officially over.
From Wash Post:
Running with the least money and fewest ties to vote-rich Northern Virginia, State Sen. R. Creigh Deeds has won the three-way Democratic primary for governor, paving the [...]

Would we really be talking so much about the Democratic primary if not for McAuliffe? And does anybody really think McAuliffe cares about being Governor of Virginia?
MSNBC doesn’t think so…
Here’s one way to look at today’s three-way Democratic gubernatorial in Virginia: It’s all about Terry McAuliffe, and he probably wouldn’t have it any other way. [...]

Please, please, please let this hack get defeated.
From Political Wire:
Creigh Deeds has a slight lead with 27%, followed by Terry McAuliffe at 24%, and Brian Moran at 22%.
However, the momentum is with Deeds. Over the last month he has gone from 14% to 27% while McAuliffe has dropped from 30% to 24% and Moran has [...]

Ugh.
McAuliffe is one of the most intellectually dishonest people I’ve ever had the displeasure of listening to and he’s linked to millions in questionable fundraising and stock deals.
Basically, he represents everything that’s wrong with the Clinton wing of the Democratic party.
From Wash Post:

In a three-minute video e-mailed to supporters yesterday afternoon, McAuliffe, 51, said a [...]

The king of the Democratic hacks just won’t go away?
Seriously, I watch him talk and my skin crawls. The guy is so oily that just reading this story makes me want to go take a shower.
Ugh…
RICHMOND, Va. (AP) — Former Democratic National Committee chairman Terry McAuliffe signed papers Monday signaling a possible run for [...]

That’s right. Fox News.
They’ve actually been very aggressive tonight.
However…I’m not so sure. I think they could be right, but it’s a bit too early for this call.
Still, it wouldn’t surprise me.

Again, via Hotline…
- Obama leading men by 6% and women by 12%
- African-American turnout is 21% — unchanged from ‘04
- 90% of voters think the economy is not so good/poor — a group breaking 56-43% in Obama’s favor
- McCain leading 59-38% among white men and 57-43% among white women
More as it develops…

And actually, just to give you a preview of my election night prediction…this is pretty close to what I’m thinking.
First, the Obama leads…
Florida: Obama +2
Obama: 47%
McCain: 45%
Virginia: Obama +3
Obama: 47%
McCain: 44%
Pennsylvania: Obama +4
Obama: 47%
McCain: 43%
Nevada: Obama +4
Obama: 47%
McCain: 43%
Colorado Obama +5
Obama: 49%
McCain: 44%

And then, the McCain leads…
Missouri: McCain +1
McCain: 47%
Obama: 46%
Ohio: McCain +2
McCain: 47%
Obama: 45%
North [...]

The poll of polls reveals Obama holding steady.
Colorado…
CNN’s new Colorado Poll of Polls shows Obama leading McCain by 6 points 51% to 45%; The last Colorado Poll of Polls –- released Saturday –- showed Obama leading McCain by 7 points.
Florida…
An average of polls conducted in battleground Florida, shows Obama leading McCain by 4 points, 49% [...]

The big news here is that Colorado is really starting to turn blue, and nearly every news organization has changed it to lean Obama.
Because while wins in Georgia and Missouri would be nice, Obama doesn’t need them. But he does need wins in Colorado, Virginia and Nevada if he doesn’t want to worry about Ohio, [...]

Good signs on the state level (.pdf), even if Obama’s numbers are slipping a bit nationally in the past couple days.
Colorado: Obama +9
Obama: 50%
McCain: 41%
Florida: Obama + 2
Obama: 45%
McCain: 43%
Nevada: Obama +12
Obama: 52%
McCain: 40%
New Hampshire: Obama +18
Obama: 55%
McCain: 37%
North Carolina: Obama +2
Obama: 48%
McCain: 46%
Ohio: Obama +7
Obama: 48%
McCain: 41%
Pennsylvania: Obama +12
Obama: 52%
McCain: 40%
Virginia: Obama + 7
Obama: [...]

Obama – 52%
McCain – 43%
Want to know how stable Obama’s lead is at this point? Look no further than Virginia. Public Policy Polling ran the numbers back in the early part of October at the numbers were 51 to 43 in favor of Obama.
Virginia’s going blue this election. Count on it.
Some demographic highlights…

He leads 48 [...]

The only good news here for McCain is that West Virginia is still in his corner. Still, that’s only a single digit lead and these are all states that Bush carried in 2004.
Nevada: +5 Obama
Obama 51%
McCain 46%
North Carolina: +4 Obama
Obama 51%
McCain 47%
Ohio: +4 Obama
Obama 50%
McCain 46%
Virginia: +10 Obama
Obama 54%
McCain 44%
West Virginia: +9 McCain
McCain 53%
Obama 44%
Earlier [...]

I wonder how a third of the voting population would react to the McCain’s Nancy Pfotenhauer characterizing them as basically “fake” Virginians.

And even given the chance to take it back, she didn’t? No wonder Virginia’s turning blue this year.
I can’t wait for Doug to weigh in on this.

Not much change from last week to this week, so the story is essentially that Obama’s numbers are holding steady in these key battleground states with 21 days left.
Florida
Obama 51, McCain 46
Week ago: Obama 52, McCain 45)
Missouri
Obama 50, McCain 47
Last week: Obama 50, McCain 47
North Carolina
Obama 48, McCain 48
Last week: Obama 49, McCain 48
Ohio
Obama 49, [...]

I’ve been posting a lot recently about the various attempts to paint Obama as foreigner, a muslim, of Arab decent, a friend of terrorists and a terrorist himself.
Well, now this is the first (to my knowledge) that explicitly involves a high ranking member of the GOP, at least at the state level.
From TIME:
“We haven’t [...]

Virginia for the first time in 40 years is up for grabs.

SurveyUSA shows that Virginia is likely to go blue…

Q: Which candidate for President do you think will do a better job handling the economy? John McCain? Or Barack Obama?
A: McCain 35% Obama 57%

Q: Which candidate for President do you think will do a better job handling the situation in Iraq?
A: McCain 41% Obama 52%

Q: Which [...]

I’ll let the numbers speak for themselves…
Colorado
Obama: 51
McCain: 45
Florida
Obama: 52
McCain: 45
Missouri
Obama: 50
McCain: 47
Ohio
McCain: 48
Obama: 47
Virginia
Obama: 50
McCain: 48