Photo by Joshua Farnsworth

During the early months of the election season, Republicans are keeping busier than ever — seeking the national spotlight by speaking out against Obama, writing books, giving interviews, and publicly supporting the GOP candidates.

See which VP Hopefuls have been in the news recently!

In other news, Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell would make the perfect running mate for any Republican contender. He’s extremely bright and he’s got one heck of a track record. He hob-knobs with celebrities like Steven Spielberg and Donald Trump. He’s working on all the right issues in his state right now and he has the sort of practical values that appeal to both Conservatives and left-leaning suburbanites. He comes across as a real down-to-earth fellow who creates consensus and gets things done. One has to wonder why he’s not running for President himself!

Learn more about Bob here. 

It’s official. Jon Stewart broadcast the first “Indecision 2012″ segment last night. The 2012 election cycle is underway.

Virginia is shaping up as a key swing state for President Obama’s re-election prospects. Since Jim Webb dropped out, it has also emerged as a critical must-win for the Democrats to retain their Senate majority.

Public Policy Polling has a couple of new polls out focusing on the state. So far, it’s all good news for the Dems, and the Independent voters in Virginia are a big part of the story.

Obama Strong in Virginia:

“Part of the reason Obama’s doing well in Virginia is that he has respectable, if not great, approval numbers there. 48% like the job he’s doing to 45% who disapprove. There are two keys to his solid standing. The first is that 87% of Democrats stand with him- that’s an indication he’s generally holding onto white voters within his party, even ones who might lean a little bit more to the conservative side of the ideological spectrum.

The other key to his standing is that he’s coming close to breaking even with independents- 48% disapprove of him to 42% who approve. It may seem counter intuitive that negative numbers with those voters are a good sign for Obama, but after two straight election years where independents in Virginia leaned toward the GOP by a margin of about 30 points a Democratic politician getting just slightly negative reviews from them is progress.”

Toss up in Virginia

“The Virginia Senate race is about as much of a toss up as it could be: Tim Kaine and George Allen tie at 47% in our first poll since Jim Webb announced his retirement… The conventional wisdom has been that if Obama wins the state the Senate race is likely to come with him, but could there actually be a group of independent voters that go Obama/Allen in the interest of divided government? These early figures hint at the possibility of that and it’s something to keep an eye on moving forward.”

Clearly, it is an open question whether there is anything meaningful to be gleaned from polls 20 months out from an election. Minimally, these polls offer a baseline set of numbers for comparison when the campaigns kick off in earnest.

For me, The most interesting element of the PPP poll summary is the highlighted question “could there actually be a group of independent voters that go Obama/Allen in the interest of divided government?”. Regardless of the answer, it is significant that the question of whether independents are consciously making a divided government voting decisions is even being asked. I offered my answer in the comments on that post.

In honor of the official start of the 2012 presidential election race, a suggestion for the Virginia Election Theme Song:

“Sweet Virginia” – Rolling Stones

Wadin’ through the waste stormy winter,
And there’s not a friend to help you through.
Tryin’ to stop the waves behind your eyeballs,
Drop your reds, drop your greens and blues.

But come on, come on down Sweet Virginia,
Come on, come on down, I beg of you.
Come on, come on down, you got it in you.
Got to scrape that sh*t right off you shoes.

Cross-posted from Divided We Stand United We Fall

Egypt was not the only regime change story last week. As discussed previously on the Donk, on my blog, and elsewhere, the Democrats were already facing a huge uphill climb to hold their Senate majority past the 2012 election:

That climb just got a whole lot steeper, as incumbent Virginia Democratic Senator Jim Webb announced last week that he will not run for a second term. This is not a surprise. Webb has been quite open about his frustration with the Democratic leadership. As a consequence, the Republicans are licking their chops and Democrats are grasping at straws.

What seemed likely last fall is now a virtual certainty – the Republicans will retake the Senate majority in 2012. The only way to retain our happily divided government and avoid a rerun of One Party Republican Rule in 2013, will be to re-elect Barack Obama.

Another Democratic* Senator, Republican Roy Blunt (R-Mo), is also reading the 100 POINT ARIAL BOLD writing on the wall and finds some good things to say about divided government:

Of course, in addition to divided government giving Congress the “opportunity to do hard things”, it also gives the Congress the opportunity to not do stupid and bad things, like:

• Squander our blood and treasure to occupy Iraq (One Party Republican Rule)
• Pass wildly expensive stimulus legislation that does not stimulate (One Party Democratic Rule)
• Pass wildly expensive and complex Health Care Reform that does not reform the health care system (One Party Democratic Rule)
• Irresponsibly increase spending and the deficit to insane record levels (One Party Republican Rule), then increase the spending rate to even more insane levels while exploding the deficit to even more irresponsible record levels (One Party Democratic Rule)

We’ve now had divided government restored for only a little over a month. It is still early, but as President Obama moves to the center, and Republicans move toward fiscal sanity, I am optimistic.

So far, so good.

==========

*CORRECTED – Hat tip – Jim S in comments. Also removed “Democratic” from the title. My bad.

^{X-posted & excerpted from Divided We Stand United We Fall.}

Less than half.

Good god.

This is after we found out that a majority of Republicans either don’t think or aren’t sure that Obama is a United States citizen.

(h/t: Political Wire)

And McAuliffe lost…big time.

Even with all that money spent and Bill Clinton campaigning for him…he only got 26% of the vote.

The Clinton era is officially over.

From Wash Post:

Running with the least money and fewest ties to vote-rich Northern Virginia, State Sen. R. Creigh Deeds has won the three-way Democratic primary for governor, paving the way for a rematch with Republican Bob McDonnell in the fall.

Deeds, 51, a country lawyer from Bath County in the western part of the state, was viewed as an unlikely winner against two Northern Virginians with entrenched political ties.

Known for his moderate views on such issues as gun rights, but also appreciated for his folksy style and attention to the Washington suburbs’ cry for road improvements, Deeds was leading in Fairfax, Arlington, Loudoun and Prince William counties.

Deeds had almost doubled the vote totals of each of his opponents, Democratic activist Terry McAuliffe and former Del. Brian Moran.

So how did he win?

Some are suggesting that a savvy internet marketing strategy involving Google played a hand…

Starting at 3 p.m EST Monday, hours before polls opened across Virginia, Deeds’s campaign bought what’s called a ‘Google blast.’ Or, more appropriately, a Google attack. If you live in Northern Virginia (or, like many voters, work in D.C. but live in NoVa), Deeds has been almost inescapable on highly-trafficked sites such as washingtonpost.com, the blog Talking Points Memo and Oxygen.com, which is popular among women. Capitalizing on his Post endorsement, he peppered those sites with banner ads reading ‘The Washington Post endorsed one Democrat — Creigh Deeds’ until polls closed.

Regardless of how Deeds won this race, my guess is that the general election will be a tough one. However, the likelihood that Virginia will elect a Republican Governor is perhaps much lower after successful terms by moderate Dems Mark Warner and Tim Kaine.

Would we really be talking so much about the Democratic primary if not for McAuliffe? And does anybody really think McAuliffe cares about being Governor of Virginia?

MSNBC doesn’t think so…

Here’s one way to look at today’s three-way Democratic gubernatorial in Virginia: It’s all about Terry McAuliffe, and he probably wouldn’t have it any other way. If McAuliffe wins, it would be due to his organization and laser-like focus on jobs and the economy. It would confirm that money and name ID do matter. And, of course, it would set up an entertaining and TV cable-friendly general election against Republican Bob McDonnell. But if McAuliffe loses — to surging Creigh Deeds or (less likely) Brian Moran — it would be due to concerns about his electability. It would confirm that the best-known and best-financed candidates don’t always win. It would provide evidence, as we wrote yesterday, that newspaper endorsements (like the Washington Post’s nod to Deeds) can impact a race. And it would be another electoral loss for the Clintons and their friends, especially in Virginia (where Obama beat Hillary last year, 64%-35%).

And that last part is possibly the most important. We’ve shifted away from a Clinton-controlled party and that would be a good thing indeed.

Because while there’s no doubt that those folks knew how to win with the slash and burn tactics of Begala and Carville, if Dems want to continue to build on their successes they need to adopt the Plouffe and Axelrod way of doing things.

In short, flashiness and vitriol is (slowly, but surely) being replaced with substance and bridge building. And that’s good for everybody, not just Dems.

Please, please, please let this hack get defeated.

From Political Wire:

Creigh Deeds has a slight lead with 27%, followed by Terry McAuliffe at 24%, and Brian Moran at 22%.

However, the momentum is with Deeds. Over the last month he has gone from 14% to 27% while McAuliffe has dropped from 30% to 24% and Moran has pretty much stayed in place.

Of note, the primary is next week so McAuliffe doesn’t have a lot of time to turn this around. Fingers crossed he won’t figure it out.

And if you’re wondering why I’m so against him, just search for some of my posts on him and you’ll see why. The guy is one of the hackiest hacks in politics. And the less power he has, the better.

Ugh.

McAuliffe is one of the most intellectually dishonest people I’ve ever had the displeasure of listening to and he’s linked to millions in questionable fundraising and stock deals.

Basically, he represents everything that’s wrong with the Clinton wing of the Democratic party.

From Wash Post:

In a three-minute video e-mailed to supporters yesterday afternoon, McAuliffe, 51, said a two-month tour of the state convinced him that his business and political experience prepared him to work on issues of concern to Virginians: creating jobs, improving public schools and working toward energy independence.

McAuliffe did not mention his competitors in the June Democratic primary, state Sen. R. Creigh Deeds of Bath County and former state delegate Brian J. Moran of Alexandria. Instead, he sought to contrast himself directly with the Republican nominee, Attorney General Robert F. McDonnell, and to portray himself as a natural successor to former Democratic governor Mark R. Warner, who was elected in November to the U.S. Senate, and Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D).

Warner and Kaine, McAuliffe said, “know that not every good idea comes out of Richmond. When it comes to fixing our economy, there’s no such thing as a Republican job or a Democratic job. It’s about bringing people together to create good jobs.” McDonnell, in contrast, has opposed the Warner and Kaine administrations for seven years, McAuliffe said.

I’d rather have the Republican in this seat than McAuliffe. Seriously. That’s how radioactive this joker is. He has absolutely ZERO experience building bridges, and in a state that’s becoming more moderate by the day, his politics would be poisonous.

Hopefully one of the Dems can knock him off in the primaries, although with McAuliffe’s connections that could prove difficult.

More as it develops…

The king of the Democratic hacks just won’t go away?

Seriously, I watch him talk and my skin crawls. The guy is so oily that just reading this story makes me want to go take a shower.

Ugh…

RICHMOND, Va. (AP) — Former Democratic National Committee chairman Terry McAuliffe signed papers Monday signaling a possible run for governor next year in Virginia.

McAuliffe told The Associated Press he set up a campaign committee and will tour Virginia for the next 60 days before making his candidacy certain.

He signed papers setting up his committee after a series of barnstorming campaign appearances across the state on behalf of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign.

McAuliffe would face two other Democrats already in the governor’s race. State Senator Creigh Deeds narrowly lost the attorney general’s race in 2005, and House Democratic Caucus chairman Brian Moran is also in the race.

By the way, what’s Democrat Tim Kaine going to be doing? Apparently the seat will be open in 2009, but Kaine has only served on term.

I’m sorry, but am I missing something here?

One last thing…the easiest way to turn Virginia red again is by electing a hack like McAuliffe. The guy is good at raising money and that’s it. DO NOT get behind this guy if you want to keep Virginia blue.

That’s right. Fox News.

They’ve actually been very aggressive tonight.

However…I’m not so sure. I think they could be right, but it’s a bit too early for this call.

Still, it wouldn’t surprise me.

Again, via Hotline…

- Obama leading men by 6% and women by 12%

- African-American turnout is 21% — unchanged from ‘04

- 90% of voters think the economy is not so good/poor — a group breaking 56-43% in Obama’s favor

- McCain leading 59-38% among white men and 57-43% among white women

More as it develops…

And actually, just to give you a preview of my election night prediction…this is pretty close to what I’m thinking.

First, the Obama leads…

Florida: Obama +2
Obama: 47%
McCain: 45%

Virginia: Obama +3
Obama: 47%
McCain: 44%

Pennsylvania: Obama +4
Obama: 47%
McCain: 43%

Nevada: Obama +4
Obama: 47%
McCain: 43%

Colorado Obama +5
Obama: 49%
McCain: 44%

And then, the McCain leads…

Missouri: McCain +1
McCain: 47%
Obama: 46%

Ohio: McCain +2
McCain: 47%
Obama: 45%

North Carolina: McCain +3
McCain: 49%
Obama: 46%

And that’s it. These are the last polls from NBC before the election.

The poll of polls reveals Obama holding steady.

Colorado…

CNN’s new Colorado Poll of Polls shows Obama leading McCain by 6 points 51% to 45%; The last Colorado Poll of Polls –- released Saturday –- showed Obama leading McCain by 7 points.

Florida…

An average of polls conducted in battleground Florida, shows Obama leading McCain by 4 points, 49% to 45%. Saturday’s Florida Poll of Polls also showed Obama leading McCain by 4 points.

Iowa…

In Iowa, where it all started for Sen. Obama, the Illinois senator is leading McCain by 14 points, 53% to 39%.

Minnesota…

CNN’s new Minnesota Poll of Polls shows Obama leading McCain by 12 points, 52% to 40%; The last Minnesota Poll of Polls –- released October 30 –- showed Obama leading McCain by 13 points.

New Hampshire…

In New Hampshire, Obama is leading McCain by 11 points, 53% to 42% according to the latest CNN Poll of Polls. CNN’s last New Hampshire Poll of Polls –- released November 1 –- showed Obama leading McCain by 12 points.

Pennsylvania…

CNN’s new average of polls in Pennsylvania shows the Democratic nominee leading the Republican nominee by 7 points, 51% to 44%; CNN’s last Pennsylvania Poll of Polls –- released November 1 –- showed Obama leading McCain by 8 points.

Virginia…

Finaly, in Virginia, a state that has voted Republican in every presidential race since 1968, Obama is leading McCain by 7 points, 51% to 44%.

And there we are.

I think the only question mark here is Florida. All the rest are pretty much locked up. Sure, Pennsylvania and Virginia could be closer than previously thought, but any state where Obama is polling above 50% will turn blue.

The big news here is that Colorado is really starting to turn blue, and nearly every news organization has changed it to lean Obama.

Because while wins in Georgia and Missouri would be nice, Obama doesn’t need them. But he does need wins in Colorado, Virginia and Nevada if he doesn’t want to worry about Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania. Although I’d bet my car that he wins Pennsylvania.

The numbers…

Georgia: McCain +5
McCain: 52%
Obama: 47%

Missouri: McCain +2
McCain: 50%
Obama: 48%

Virginia: Obama +9
Obama: 53%
McCain: 44%

Colorado: Obama +8
Obama: 53%
McCain: 45%

Florida: Obama +4
Obama: 51%
McCain: 47%

As I’ve stated before, I don’t think Obama will take Florida or Ohio, but I actually think he has a shot at Georgia given its extremely high African American population and their massive early voting turnout.

And Missouri? Well, who knows, but if Obama is elected history shows us that Missouri will probably turn blue. If not, it’ll probably be in McCain’s column.

Here’s a little more from CNN about their electoral map…

The new numbers in Colorado, along with similar findings from other new polls in the state, are factors in CNN’s move of Colorado from a toss up state to lean Obama in our new Electoral College Map. CNN is also changing Indiana from lean McCain to toss up. A new CNN Poll of Polls in Indiana suggests McCain holds a two point lead over Obama in a state that hasn’t voted for a Democrat in a presidential election since 1964. The poll of polls is an average of the latest state surveys.

With the switch of Colorado’s nine electoral votes and Indiana’s 11, CNN now estimates that if the election were held today Obama would win states with 286 electoral votes and McCain states with 163, with 89 electoral votes still up for grabs. Two-hundred and seventy electoral votes are needed to clinch the presidency. Obama’s estimate of 286 electoral votes is a jump from 274 in our most recent electoral college map.

Here’s their map…

More battleground polls soon…

Good signs on the state level (.pdf), even if Obama’s numbers are slipping a bit nationally in the past couple days.

Colorado: Obama +9
Obama: 50%
McCain: 41%

Florida: Obama + 2
Obama: 45%
McCain: 43%

Nevada: Obama +12
Obama: 52%
McCain: 40%

New Hampshire: Obama +18
Obama: 55%
McCain: 37%

North Carolina: Obama +2
Obama: 48%
McCain: 46%

Ohio: Obama +7
Obama: 48%
McCain: 41%

Pennsylvania: Obama +12
Obama: 52%
McCain: 40%

Virginia: Obama + 7
Obama: 49%
McCain: 42%

My prediction? Any state where there’s a margin of 5 or less, he’ll lose. So that means Florida and North Carolina probably won’t turn out in Obama’s favor come election day. I really think undecideds will start to break 2 to 1 for McCain because they’re just nervous that Obama will tax the hell out of them.

And even though Obama leads by 7 in Ohio, I also have my doubts he’ll take it. I just don’t think there are enough early votes there to swing it.

But all the rest? Virginia, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Nevada and New Hampshire are Obama’s.

What do you think?

Obama – 52%
McCain – 43%

Want to know how stable Obama’s lead is at this point? Look no further than Virginia. Public Policy Polling ran the numbers back in the early part of October at the numbers were 51 to 43 in favor of Obama.

Virginia’s going blue this election. Count on it.

Some demographic highlights…

• He leads 48 to 39 with independents.
• Democrats support Obama 89 to 8. Republicans support McCain 88 to 10.
• McCain captures white voters 53 to 42, but would need a 60 to 40 split to win.
• New voters who didn’t vote in 2004 support Obama 61 to 24.
• 59% of voters say the economy is their top issue. Obama leads among this group 63 to 32.

If you want to see all the crosstabs, check out the poll here.

The only good news here for McCain is that West Virginia is still in his corner. Still, that’s only a single digit lead and these are all states that Bush carried in 2004.

Nevada: +5 Obama
Obama 51%
McCain 46%

North Carolina: +4 Obama
Obama 51%
McCain 47%

Ohio: +4 Obama
Obama 50%
McCain 46%

Virginia: +10 Obama
Obama 54%
McCain 44%

West Virginia: +9 McCain
McCain 53%
Obama 44%

Earlier in the day I mentioned a factoid about North Carolina early voting favoring Dems over Repubs, 61% to 22%, so I think NC is very much in play. Also, I think Virginia is a lock for Obama. Nevada is getting close to being that too, but it’s probably going to be a squeaker that goes blue.

But Ohio? I just don’t think it’ll go blue this season. Not enough new voters there and early voting hasn’t turned out that well for the Dems. Also, West Virginia just isn’t close enough at this point for Obama to have the momentum to sweep through there.

Still, 3 out of 5 would really start turning this into landslide territory on November 4th.

More as it develops…

I wonder how a third of the voting population would react to the McCain’s Nancy Pfotenhauer characterizing them as basically “fake” Virginians.

And even given the chance to take it back, she didn’t? No wonder Virginia’s turning blue this year.

I can’t wait for Doug to weigh in on this.

Not much change from last week to this week, so the story is essentially that Obama’s numbers are holding steady in these key battleground states with 21 days left.

Florida
Obama 51, McCain 46
Week ago: Obama 52, McCain 45)

Missouri
Obama 50, McCain 47
Last week: Obama 50, McCain 47

North Carolina
Obama 48, McCain 48
Last week: Obama 49, McCain 48

Ohio
Obama 49, McCain 47
Last week: McCain 48, Obama 47

Virginia
Obama 50, McCain 47
Last week: Obama 50, McCain 48

By the way, 1000 likely voters were polled in each state, and the MOE is +/- 3.

I’ve been posting a lot recently about the various attempts to paint Obama as foreigner, a muslim, of Arab decent, a friend of terrorists and a terrorist himself.

Well, now this is the first (to my knowledge) that explicitly involves a high ranking member of the GOP, at least at the state level.

From TIME:

“We haven’t seen a race like this in Virginia — ever,” said state GOP Chairman Jeffrey M. Frederick. “The last time was 40 years ago, and they didn’t run races like this.” [...]

With so much at stake, and time running short, Frederick did not feel he had the luxury of subtlety. He climbed atop a folding chair to give 30 campaign volunteers who were about to go canvassing door to door their talking points — for instance, the connection between Barack Obama and Osama bin Laden: “Both have friends that bombed the Pentagon,” he said. “That is scary.”

It is also not exactly true — though that distorted reference to Obama’s controversial association with William Ayers, a former 60s radical, was enough to get the volunteers stoked. “And he won’t salute the flag,” one woman added, repeating another myth about Obama. She was quickly topped by a man who called out, “We don’t even know where Senator Obama was really born.”

What do you say to stuff like this?

The most I can do is continue to point it out and hope that those of you who think that these are just blips on the radar start taking notice of a very clear pattern.