No surprises here.

A total of 23 electoral votes.

Still…losing Pennsylvania was a killer.

The only good news here for McCain is that West Virginia is still in his corner. Still, that’s only a single digit lead and these are all states that Bush carried in 2004.

Nevada: +5 Obama
Obama 51%
McCain 46%

North Carolina: +4 Obama
Obama 51%
McCain 47%

Ohio: +4 Obama
Obama 50%
McCain 46%

Virginia: +10 Obama
Obama 54%
McCain 44%

West Virginia: +9 McCain
McCain 53%
Obama 44%

Earlier in the day I mentioned a factoid about North Carolina early voting favoring Dems over Repubs, 61% to 22%, so I think NC is very much in play. Also, I think Virginia is a lock for Obama. Nevada is getting close to being that too, but it’s probably going to be a squeaker that goes blue.

But Ohio? I just don’t think it’ll go blue this season. Not enough new voters there and early voting hasn’t turned out that well for the Dems. Also, West Virginia just isn’t close enough at this point for Obama to have the momentum to sweep through there.

Still, 3 out of 5 would really start turning this into landslide territory on November 4th.

More as it develops…

Early voters are already reporting problems with these ridiculous machines.

From the Charleston Gazette:

WINFIELD – Three Putnam County voters say electronic voting machines changed their votes from Democrats to Republicans when they cast early ballots last week.

This is the second West Virginia county where voters have reported this problem. Last week, three voters in Jackson County told The Charleston Gazette their electronic vote for “Barack Obama” kept flipping to “John McCain.” [...]

Shelba Ketchum, a 69-year-old nurse retired from Thomas Memorial Hospital, described what happened Friday at the Putnam County Courthouse in Winfield.

“I pushed buttons and they all came up Republican,” she said. “I hit Obama and it switched to McCain. I am really concerned about that. If McCain wins, there was something wrong with the machines.

“I asked them for a printout of my votes,” Ketchum said. “But they said it was in the machine and I could not get it. I did not feel right when I left the courthouse. My son felt the same way.

These could just be isolated incidents, but why does it have to be difficult at all?

I wish we would simply go back to paper ballots and leave this electronic stuff in the dust.

What’s more, if electoral history is any judge, the pickup of West Virginia wouldn’t necessarily be a surprise. Going back to the election of 1968, Dems have won the state 6 out of the last 10 elections.

Still, is it likely that Obama will get 380?

No. My best guess is he won’t pick up West Virginia, Indiana, Ohio, North Carolina or Missouri, which would leave him at 318. Obviously that’s still a healthy margin, and would be considered a big win, but not a landslide.

Also, here’s another handy guide from DemConWatch that aggregates all of the polls and shows which pollster considers states going for Obama, Obama Leaning, Tied, McCain Leaning and going for McCain.

More as it develops…

Is this an outlier? Perhaps. But even if it is, the race is probably a lot closer to being tied than most think.

The key here is Independents are breaking for Obama 50% to 38%. And I think, once again, that this shows the Palin pick doesn’t necessarily speak to “small town Americans.”

Nate Silver has some analysis…

Nevertheless, if Obama has a double-digit lead in Pennsylvania — and all of the polls seem to think that he does — that means he’s had to have made at least some progress in the “Pennsyltucky” region in the interior of the state.

And if he’s made progress in Pennsyltucky, that probably means he’s made progress in West Virginia. West Virginia — like Pennsylvania — is also a place where the Democrats retain a substantial edge in party identification, and perhaps the economy has really brought Democrats home.

Indeed, for the past week or so, just about every poll taken in a Kerry state has shown Obama with a double-digit lead, with the minor exception of Minnesota, where the polling has been erratic.

Maybe there’s more room for electoral gains than I had thought…

I hadn’t seen those interviews before, but seriously…wow. Gotta love that reasoning!

From WVGazette.com:

“As people all across this great nation know, I have been one of the most outspoken opponents of the Bush administration’s misguided war in Iraq and its saber rattling around the globe,” Byrd said.

He said he had “no intention of involving myself in the Democratic campaign for President in the midst of West Virginia’s primary election. But the stakes this November could not be higher.” [...]

“Barack Obama is a noble-hearted patriot and humble Christian, and he has my full faith and support,” Byrd concluded.

Long story short, it’s time to unify this party once and for all and Byrd gets that. Too bad Hillary doesn’t.

If that holds up, she’ll get 19 delegates and he’ll get about 9. So +10 for her tonight is likely.

By the way, if she got 75% of the remaining pledged delegates, she’d have to get 80% of the remaining superdelegates to catch up.

Watch MSNBC live if you want to watch her speech or get more details. This embed will probably go dead in about two hours, though.

And that’s about it. I’ll be following the Oregon and Kentucky contests next week.

Oh, you mean like when she wrote off all those caucus states post Super Tuesday?

Or like the argument that because she’s winning the big states, that’s what matters?

Or her popular vote argument? You mean trying to get away with stuff like that?

Here’s the memo from Hillary’s camp:

Given the attempts by our opponent and some in the media to declare this race over, any significant increase in voter turnout, coupled with a decisive Clinton victory, would send a strong message that Democrats remain excited and energized by Hillary’s candidacy.

In the face of grim poll numbers, the Obama campaign has attempted to dismiss today’s outcome despite the fact that Sen. Obama has outspent us on advertising, has more staff in the state, and more than double the number of offices.

He has also benefited from the support of the most high-profile endorsers in West Virginia–Sen. Jay Rockefeller and Congressman Nick Rahall. By every measure, the Obama campaign has waged an aggressive campaign in the Mountain State.

Despite being the so-called “presumptive nominee” and benefiting from these advantages, Sen. Obama has been unable to close a significant gap in the polls.

And despite being the heir apparent and benefitting from having a beloved former President campaign for her all across the country, Sen. Clinton has been unable to close any gaps since Super Tuesday. And why? Because she didn’t plan for anything after Super Tuesday and so she ignored a bunch of small states…and dismissed them as unimportant or suggested that they disenfranchised voters.

Moving on…

Suffolk University has him down by 36 points, with 16% still undecided.

American Research Group has him down by 43, with 11% still undecided.

Rasmussen has him down by 29, with 27% still undecided.

TSG/Orion Strategies has him down 40, with 14% undecided.

The one bit of good news for Obama? The expectations are SO low that if he happens to pull off a closer victory, say within 20 points, it’ll be news. Don’t expect that though. This state is going for Hillary, and it’s going to go big.

What that says about the race as a whole is really anybody’s guess. Hillary will point out that this is proof Obama can’t capture “hard working” voters, i.e. uneducated white voters. And that could be true, but we won’t know that until early November. We have yet to see “Obama, The General Election Candidate” yet, and he could turn around these sentiments once people start hearing his policy proposals, which will draw clear contrasts with McCain’s.

More as it develops…

Still, the Barack Obama campaign has to be concerned that the Illinois Senator is still underperforming in states with high numbers of rural and blue-collar voters. With all the talk of Obama now being the presumptive nominee, you’d think he’d be polling a little better in these two states. I mean, after John McCain became the presumptive Republican nominee, it’s not like Mike Huckabee posted any massive victories.

Now that Obama can pull his attention away from primary politics, he needs to assess whether his lack of appeal among rural and blue-collar voters is a problem that will carry over to the general election or whether the vast majority of Clinton voters will line up behind him. Right now, I think the biggest question out there is: how many Clinton voters will switch to McCain or at least move to the undecided column? If it’s a significant number, Obama has a lot of work ahead. We should have a better grasp on that situation within the next few months.

”McCain was a fighter pilot, who dropped laser-guided missiles from 35,000 feet. He was long gone when they hit. What happened when they get to the ground? He doesn’t know. You have to care about the lives of people. McCain never gets into those issues.”

I have a suspicion that other moments in McCain’s military career may have taught him a thing or two about pain and suffering. And really, who knows the plight of the common man quite like a Rockefeller? But, really, what made this statement so offensive is it’s implication that McCain was a cold-hearted killer while serving in Vietnam.

That’s why it’s appropriate that Rockefeller has apologized, saying:

”I have deep respect for John McCain’s honorable and noble service to our country. I made an inaccurate and wrong analogy and I have extended my sincere apology to him. While we differ a great deal on policy issues, I profoundly respect and appreciate his dedication to our country, and I regret my very poor choice of words.”

McCain has accepted the apology.

Once again, we are seeing an example of someone in this election taking rhetoric too far and then either being punished by a campaign or personally apologizing for their words. I don’t know if this level of civility can last but it sure is heartening. People are going to say stupid things during the course of a campaign. What’s important is that those stupid things are rightfully called stupid and not allowed to fester. Let’s see if we can keep it going.

Then McCain called his people and told them to vote for Huckabee.

Result…

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee captured the 18 West Virginia delegates up for grabs at the state’s Republican convention on Tuesday, the first of many presidential contests on Super Tuesday.

Huckabee won on the second ballot, after supporters of U.S. Sen. John McCain switched their votes to him. That gave Huckabee 557 votes to 522 for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney on the second ballot. McCain had 10 votes. [...]

The delegate switch didn’t sit well with Romney supporters. “These are the juvenile actions of a morally bankrupt campaign,” said John McCutcheon of the Phillips Group, which supported Romney’s campaign in the state.

Poor Romney. I’m sure he’d never do anything like this if he had the opportunity…