79 electoral votes here for the Illinois senator.

Moving on…

More numbers bring more bad news for McCain.

Now, Big Ten polls the eight states where the Big Ten school are, so some of them (Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota) I’m not going to even bother showing since they’re safely blue.

Instead, I’ll focus on four McCain has been campaigning in recently.

Indiana: +10
Obama 51%
McCain 41%

Ohio: Obama + 12
Obama 53%
McCain 41%

Pennsylvania: Obama +11
Obama 52%
McCain 41%

Wisconsin: Obama +13
Obama 53%
McCain 40%

So first Quinnipiac shows Obama up 14% in Ohio, and now this poll shows him up 12%?

And up +10 in Indiana?

What’s more, compare these numbers to what Big Ten had in mid-September…

The eight states home to the 11 universities in the Big Ten conference were key battlegrounds in the 2004 election, and the results of the poll show that they are among the most competitive in the country and are likely to be pivotal in determining the election outcome.

The surveys show a tight race in all of the Big Ten states except for Obama’s home state of Illinois, where he holds a 16-point lead over McCain. The two candidates are tied in Iowa and Pennsylvania, and Obama has just a one-point lead in Ohio and Wisconsin. McCain is ahead in just one state — Indiana — where he leads by 4 percentage points.

Are we seeing a big shift in the electorate?

New Hampshire:
Obama 53%, McCain 45%
Obama 51%, McCain 43%, Barr 3%, Nader 1%

Wisconsin:
Obama 51%, McCain 46%
Obama 50%, McCain 42%, Nader 4%, Barr 1%

Ohio:
Obama 50%, McCain 47%
Obama 48%, McCain 45%, Nader 3%, Barr 2%

North Carolina:
Obama 49%, McCain 49%
Obama 49%, McCain 48%, Barr 2%

Indiana:
McCain 51%, Obama 46%
McCain 48%, Obama 46%, Barr 5%

Looks like Barr is really hurting McCain in Indiana, and with such discontent for Republicans this year, I can definitely see more people casting their ballots for the Libertarian candidate.

Some more analysis…

On the eve of the penultimate presidential debate, a new TIME/CNN poll shows John McCain still struggling in states won by George W. Bush in 2004, a sign that last week’s vice presidential debate had little effect on voter opinion. [...]

Last week, the McCain campaign reacted to a polling downturn by shuttering its operation in the state of Michigan and redistributing staff to Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Maine, where electoral votes are distributed by congressional district. In a conference call last week, Mike DuHaime, the McCain campaign’s political director, acknowledged that the national mood and Obama’s deep pockets had put previously solid Republican states like Indiana in play.

“I do think just the overall environment right now that we face is one of the worst environments for any Republican in probably 35 years,” DuHaime said. “Any time you have that, you have states move within that margin.”

The big question now, besides Ayers, Rezko and Wright…what else does McCain have to drive up Obama’s negatives? And can he even accomplish that with so much of the electorate having already made up their minds.

Huh?

“Our ability to pick off one of those three states is where our fortunes are largely held,” a McCain official said. “These are states where Barack Obama is on the defense.”

McCain has very limited ways to win, with no room for error. Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) still has many routes to the White House and so can afford to campaign on a much broader playing field. [...]

McCain figures that winning one of those three big remaining swing states, plus those he considers safe, would put him 10 shy of the 270 electoral votes he needs to win.

“We can dig up an additional 10 electoral votes in Nevada, Colorado and New Hampshire,” the official said.

Well, it’s definitely a “maverick” move, but so far this political season that has meant ill-informed and horribly executed.

But let’s get real folks. Pennsylvania is out. Republicans always think they can capture this one, but they always fall short. What’s more, the latest polling shows Obama pulling away significantly.

Minnesota and Wisconsin are definitely closer, but as mentioned earlier, Obama took Wisconsin by 17 points over Hillary so there’s not really a “blue collar” problem there.

So that leaves Minnesota, which is trending closer but is still a stretch. And my guess is that when the new state polls come out next week they’ll show a jump for Obama there too, effectively putting the state out of reach.

I guess we’ll see…

Obama loses 2 from last month, but the 11 point margin remains pretty consistent with other polls I’m seeing.

Some demo info…

• Women back Obama 56 – 31.
• Men back McCain 49 – 43.
• White voters back Obama 48 – 42 percent.
• Obama leads 60 – 31 among voters 18 to 34.
• Obama leads 47 – 43 among voters 35 to 54
• Obama leads 47 – 41 among voters over 55

Rasmussen saw pretty much the exact same thing earlier in the month, and Pollster backs that up…

Long story short, Wisconsin looks solidly blue unless something crazy happens.

More next month…

The details…

Wisconsin women likely voters back Obama 53 – 37 percent while men back the Democrat 51 – 40 percent.

White voters back Obama 49 – 42 percent.

He leads 61 – 35 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old, 52 – 39 percent among voters 35 to 54 years old and 47 – 41 percent among voters over 55.

Obama’s favorability is 54 – 27 percent, with 48 – 30 percent for McCain.

As I’ve done in the other three posts about Quinnipiac’s polls, I’m going to compare Bush’s favorable/unfavorable ratings with what Wisconsin voters think about the war.

Bush’s favorable/unfavorable
Favorable – 27%
Unfavorable – 67%

Support for staying in Iraq
Keep Troops There – 51%
Withdraw – 41%

A smaller gap between staying and going in Iraq, but an extremely low approval for Bush looks to be pushing Obama’s lead even higher.

Is Wisconsin solidly blue this cycle? Looks as if.

More as it develops…

Some perspective from WisPolitics:

Wisconsin was a key battleground in the presidential contests of 2000 and 2004 and saw extraordinarily tight contests in both years. Al Gore beat George W. Bush by 5,708 votes (0.2 percent) in 2000, and John Kerry bested Bush by 11,384 votes in 2004 (0.38 percent). Goldstein points out, “In both 2000 and 2004, party attachments in the state were virtually identical with equal numbers of voters identifying with the Democrats and the GOP. One of the striking results in this poll and consistent with other survey work I have done in the state, the Democrats now enjoy a major advantage in party identification.” In the study, 38 percent of probable voters identified with the Democrats and 24 percent with Republicans.

Obama has very strong favorable ratings with 64 percent of Wisconsin probable voters saying they have a favorable opinion and 32 percent having an unfavorable opinion. McCain also has relatively strong favorables, too, at 53 percent to 44 percent. Obama is seen as the candidate to bring about change (70 percent to McCain’s 42 percent) while McCain is seen as the experienced candidate (84 percent to Obama’s 43 percent). Still, as the evidence shows, McCain faces a stiff headwind in Wisconsin.

Of note, this is the very first poll from this University of Wisconsin’s Department of Political Science, so we may want to take this with a grain of salt.

Still, Obama did exceedingly well here during the primaries and if a few other polls come out and paint it solidly blue, he may not need to spend much money in the fall.

DNC member Lena Taylor of Wisconsin…

State Sen. Lena Taylor from Milwaukee announced her support for Obama on Wednesday afternoon. Late Tuesday night University of Wisconsin-Madison student Awais Khaleel announced his endorsement for Obama on a YouTube video.

That makes 11 superdelegates in Wisconsin for Obama with just two for New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton. Three superdelegates remain undecided. They are U.S. Sens. Herb Kohl, Russ Feingold and Feingold staffer Paula Zellner.

…And Mike Morgan of Oklahoma…

Morgan was a supporter of John Edwards for the Democratic nomination before Edwards suspended his campaign. Edwards on Wednesday also announced his support for Obama.

Morgan says he believes Obama will be a plus for legislative candidates across the country as the Democratic nominee.

He says Obama is “creating enthusiasm from voters unlike anything we have seen in our lifetime.”

Post-Pennsylvania Delegate Pickups:
Obama – 58.5
Clinton – 14.5

Total Superdelegates:
Obama – 289.5
Clinton – 273.5

Total post-PA pickups after the jump…

Obama superdelegate pickups:
Mike Morgan (OK), DNC – May 14, 2008
Lena Taylor (WI), DNC – May 14, 2008
Awais Khaleel (WI), DNC – May 14, 2008
Lauren Wolfe (MI), DNC – May 14, 2008
Christine Schon Marques (DA), Chair – May 14, 2008
Pete Visclosky (IN), Representative – May 14, 2008
Anita Bonds (DC), DNC – May 13, 2008
Roy Romer (CO), DNC – May 13, 2008
Joe Donnelly (IN), Representative – May 13, 2008
Ray Nagin (LA), DNC – May 13, 2008
Daniel Akaka (HI), Senator – May 12, 2008
Dolly Strazar (HI), DNC – May 12, 2008
R. Keith Roark (ID), Dem Chairman – May 12, 2008
Tom Allen (ME), Representative – May 12, 2008
Crystal Strait (CA), DNC – May 11, 2008
Harry Mitchell (AZ), Representative – May 10, 2008
Dave Regan (OH), Add-On – May 10, 2008
Kevin Rodriguez (VI), DNC – May 10, 2008
Carol Burke (VI), DNC – May 10, 2008
Kristi Cumming (UT), Add-On – May 10, 2008
Joe Johnson (VA), DNC – May 9, 2008
Vernon Watkins (CA), DNC – May 9, 2008
Wilber Lee Jeffcoat (SC), DNC Vice Chairman – May 9, 2008
Laurie Weahkee (NM), DNC – May 9, 2008
Mazie Hirono (HI), Representative – May 9, 2008
Ed Espinoza (CA), DNC – May 9, 2008
John Gage (MD), DNC – May 9, 2008
Peter DeFazio (OR), Representative – May 9, 2008
Donald Payne (NJ), Representative – May 9, 2008
Rick Larsen (WA), Representative – May 8, 2008
Brad Miller (NC), Representative – May 8, 2008
Jennifer McClellan (VA), DNC – May 7, 2008
Inola Henry (CA), DNC – May 7, 2008
Jerry Meek (NC), Dem Chairman – May 7, 2008
Jeanette Council (NC), DNC – May 7, 2008
Lauren Dugas Glover (MD), DNC Vice Chairman – May 5, 2008
Michael Cryor (MD), DNC Chairman – May 5, 2008
Kalyn Free (OK), DNC – May 5, 2008
Jaime Paulino (Guam), DNC & Territory Vice Chair – May 4, 2008
Parris Glendening (MD), Governor – May 3, 2008
Inez Tenenbaum (SC), DNC – May 3, 2008
Brian Colón (TX), DNC – May 3, 2008
Paul G. Kirk, Jr. (MA), DNC – May 2, 2008
John Patrick (TX), DNC – May 1, 2008
Barbara Flynn Currie (IL), DNC – May 1, 2008
Todd Stroger (IL), DNC – May 1, 2008
Richard M. Daley (IL), DNC – May 1, 2008
Joe Andrew (IN), DNC – May 1, 2008
Bruce Braley (IA), Representative – Apr 30, 2008
Lois Capps (CA), Representative – Apr 30, 2008
Baron Hill (IN), Representative – Apr 30, 2008
Ben Chandler (KY), Representative – Apr 29, 2008
Richard Machacek (IA), DNC – Apr 29, 2008
Jeff Bingaman (NM), Senator – Apr 28, 2008
Charlene Fernandez (AZ), DNC & State Vice Chair – Apr 26, 2008
David Wu (OR), Representative – Apr 24, 2008
Audra Ostergard (NE), DNC & State Vice Chair – Apr 23, 2008
Brad Henry (OK), Governor – Apr 23, 2008

Clinton superdelegate pickups:
Vicki Harwell (TN), Add-On – May 14, 2008
Arthur Powell (MA), Add-On – May 10, 2008
Ciro Rodriguez (TX), Representative – May 9, 2008
Chris Carney (PA), Representative – May 9, 2008
Brad Ellsworth (IN), Representative – May 7, 2008
Heath Shuler (NC), Representative – May 7, 2008
Theresa Morelli (Dems Abroad), DNC May 5, 2008
Kathleen Kennedy Townsend (MD), Lt. Governor – May 3, 2008
Jaime A. Gonzalez Jr. (TX), DNC – May 2, 2008
Andrew Cuomo (NY), DNC – May 1, 2008
Thomas DiNapoli (NY), DNC – May 1, 2008
C. Virginia Field (NY), DNC – May 1, 2008
Carmen Arroyo (NY), DNC – May 1, 2008
John Olsen (CT), DNC – May 1, 2008
Luisette Cabanas (PR), DNC & Territory Vice Chair – Apr 30, 2008
William George (PA), DNC – Apr 30, 2008
Ike Skelton (MO), Representative, Apr 29, 2008
Mike Easley (NC), Governor – Apr 28, 2008
Kathy Sullivan (NH), Add-On – Apr 26, 2008
John Tanner (TN), Representative – Apr 23, 2008

Clinton superdelegate losses:
Kevin Rodriguez (VI), DNC – May 10, 2008
Donald Payne (NJ), Representative – May 9, 2008
Jennifer McClellan (VA), DNC – May 7, 2008
Arlene P. Bordallo (Guam), DNC & Former Territory Vice Chair- May 4, 2008
Joe Andrew (IN), DNC – May 1, 2008

However, since Wolfe is from Michigan, her vote will only count if the DNC comes to some sort of agreement with the state. That’s why I’m only adding 1 to Obama’s total below.

Post-Pennsylvania Delegate Pickups:
Obama – 56.5
Clinton – 14.5

Total Superdelegates:
Obama – 287.5
Clinton – 273.5

Total post-PA pickups after the jump…

Obama superdelegate pickups:
Awais Khaleel (WI), DNC – May 14, 2008
Lauren Wolfe (MI), DNC – May 14, 2008
Christine Schon Marques (DA), Chair – May 14, 2008
Pete Visclosky (IN), Representative – May 14, 2008
Anita Bonds (DC), DNC – May 13, 2008
Roy Romer (CO), DNC – May 13, 2008
Joe Donnelly (IN), Representative – May 13, 2008
Ray Nagin (LA), DNC – May 13, 2008
Daniel Akaka (HI), Senator – May 12, 2008
Dolly Strazar (HI), DNC – May 12, 2008
R. Keith Roark (ID), Dem Chairman – May 12, 2008
Tom Allen (ME), Representative – May 12, 2008
Crystal Strait (CA), DNC – May 11, 2008
Harry Mitchell (AZ), Representative – May 10, 2008
Dave Regan (OH), Add-On – May 10, 2008
Kevin Rodriguez (VI), DNC – May 10, 2008
Carol Burke (VI), DNC – May 10, 2008
Kristi Cumming (UT), Add-On – May 10, 2008
Joe Johnson (VA), DNC – May 9, 2008
Vernon Watkins (CA), DNC – May 9, 2008
Wilber Lee Jeffcoat (SC), DNC Vice Chairman – May 9, 2008
Laurie Weahkee (NM), DNC – May 9, 2008
Mazie Hirono (HI), Representative – May 9, 2008
Ed Espinoza (CA), DNC – May 9, 2008
John Gage (MD), DNC – May 9, 2008
Peter DeFazio (OR), Representative – May 9, 2008
Donald Payne (NJ), Representative – May 9, 2008
Rick Larsen (WA), Representative – May 8, 2008
Brad Miller (NC), Representative – May 8, 2008
Jennifer McClellan (VA), DNC – May 7, 2008
Inola Henry (CA), DNC – May 7, 2008
Jerry Meek (NC), Dem Chairman – May 7, 2008
Jeanette Council (NC), DNC – May 7, 2008
Lauren Dugas Glover (MD), DNC Vice Chairman – May 5, 2008
Michael Cryor (MD), DNC Chairman – May 5, 2008
Kalyn Free (OK), DNC – May 5, 2008
Jaime Paulino (Guam), DNC & Territory Vice Chair – May 4, 2008
Parris Glendening (MD), Governor – May 3, 2008
Inez Tenenbaum (SC), DNC – May 3, 2008
Brian Colón (TX), DNC – May 3, 2008
Paul G. Kirk, Jr. (MA), DNC – May 2, 2008
John Patrick (TX), DNC – May 1, 2008
Barbara Flynn Currie (IL), DNC – May 1, 2008
Todd Stroger (IL), DNC – May 1, 2008
Richard M. Daley (IL), DNC – May 1, 2008
Joe Andrew (IN), DNC – May 1, 2008
Bruce Braley (IA), Representative – Apr 30, 2008
Lois Capps (CA), Representative – Apr 30, 2008
Baron Hill (IN), Representative – Apr 30, 2008
Ben Chandler (KY), Representative – Apr 29, 2008
Richard Machacek (IA), DNC – Apr 29, 2008
Jeff Bingaman (NM), Senator – Apr 28, 2008
Charlene Fernandez (AZ), DNC & State Vice Chair – Apr 26, 2008
David Wu (OR), Representative – Apr 24, 2008
Audra Ostergard (NE), DNC & State Vice Chair – Apr 23, 2008
Brad Henry (OK), Governor – Apr 23, 2008

Clinton superdelegate pickups:
Vicki Harwell (TN), Add-On – May 14, 2008
Arthur Powell (MA), Add-On – May 10, 2008
Ciro Rodriguez (TX), Representative – May 9, 2008
Chris Carney (PA), Representative – May 9, 2008
Brad Ellsworth (IN), Representative – May 7, 2008
Heath Shuler (NC), Representative – May 7, 2008
Theresa Morelli (Dems Abroad), DNC May 5, 2008
Kathleen Kennedy Townsend (MD), Lt. Governor – May 3, 2008
Jaime A. Gonzalez Jr. (TX), DNC – May 2, 2008
Andrew Cuomo (NY), DNC – May 1, 2008
Thomas DiNapoli (NY), DNC – May 1, 2008
C. Virginia Field (NY), DNC – May 1, 2008
Carmen Arroyo (NY), DNC – May 1, 2008
John Olsen (CT), DNC – May 1, 2008
Luisette Cabanas (PR), DNC & Territory Vice Chair – Apr 30, 2008
William George (PA), DNC – Apr 30, 2008
Ike Skelton (MO), Representative, Apr 29, 2008
Mike Easley (NC), Governor – Apr 28, 2008
Kathy Sullivan (NH), Add-On – Apr 26, 2008
John Tanner (TN), Representative – Apr 23, 2008

Clinton superdelegate losses:
Kevin Rodriguez (VI), DNC – May 10, 2008
Donald Payne (NJ), Representative – May 9, 2008
Jennifer McClellan (VA), DNC – May 7, 2008
Arlene P. Bordallo (Guam), DNC & Former Territory Vice Chair- May 4, 2008
Joe Andrew (IN), DNC – May 1, 2008

Looks like he’ll end up finishing the night with a lead of about 13%, which is bad news for Hillary. Her and her team threw some pretty significant attacks at him that dominated the last couple news cycles and it looked like it actually helped him. In fact, if I remember correctly from exit polls I heard tonight, voters said overwhelmingly that her attacks were more unfair. How about that?

Here are some demographics via exit polls, via Drudge:

Obama Won:
Women (51-49)
All age groups under 65
All education levels
All regions of the state — urban, suburban and rural
Voters without college degrees (50-48)
Democrats (50-49)
Whites (53-46)
White men (59-38)
Voters who decided in the last week (58-42)

Won or tied voters of all income levels
Tied among white women
Tied among union members
Tied among union households

So it looks like he cut into all of her power alleys except for white women. No word on Hispanics yet, but I think their numbers in this state were statistically insignificant. I’ll find out soon I’m sure.

Here’s how Ed Morrissey sees it…

Calling it a night. Looks like a solid win for Obama, one that will help him in two weeks in Texas and Ohio. Hillary can just about hit the panic button now. If she can’t win both Texas and Ohio on March 4th, the Democratic Party will start calling for her withdrawal to avoid the convention meltdown.

She needed to either have this be a close one or win it. She did neither.

We’ll see how this all shakes out tomorrow.

UPDATE:
Okay, we’re actually looking at landslide proportions here.

With 99% reporting, he has won 58% to 41%, which represents a 17 point spread. It’s my opinion that double digits means a big win and after you cross the 15 point threshold, you’re into landslide territory.

Just to give you some perspective on this, McCain has his nomination locked up and he won 55% to Huckabee’s 37% tonight. That’s an 18 point spread. So Obama beat Hillary by virtually the same amount.

Also, and most importantly, he seems to have gained an 11 point delegate advantage on her tonight. This is the real reason Wisconsin was so important. Now she’s going to have to win Ohio and Texas by even bigger margins, and Texas looks to be shaping up to possibly even be a win for Obama.

Another thing to note, he has two weeks to campaign in the March 2nd states now and as we’ve seen in nearly every single place this guy has visited, he makes up ground when he gets on the ground and shakes hands.

Any predictions?

At that time, Hillary had 50% to Obama’s 41%. Now the gap is 49% to 43%. Not a big deal, but it could show that while this ARG poll may not predict the final outcome of the contest, it is showing the gap getting smaller and that could actually be seen as Obama gaining a wider lead if you consider the trends of other polls.

More as it develops…

ARG: Clinton 49%, Obama 43% (Feb. 16)

Research 200: Obama 47%, Clinton 42% (Feb. 15)

Rasmussen: Obama 47%, Clinton 43% (Feb. 14)

Strategic Vision (R): Obama 45%, Clinton 41% (Feb. 13)

PPP (D): Obama 50%, Clinton 39% (Feb. 12)

One thing they all show pretty consistently is that about 10% of voters haven’t made up their mind yet. Where will those votes break? That’s going to be the most important part of tomorrow’s story line.

UPDATE:
I’m sorry, I completely didn’t see that Clinton was up in that latest ARG poll, but as TPM says they’ve been incredibly inaccurate over the course of this election. We’ll see if they’ve turned it around.

Again, a Clinton win in Wisconsin would be big. No doubt about that.

From TPM:

In a sign of just how much effort Barack Obama is putting into the Wisconsin primary, he’s vastly outspending Hillary Clinton on ads for the Madison and Milwaukee media markets, which make up the two biggest Democratic strongholds in the state. All in all, Obama has spent $831,880 on TV ads for those two media markets, compared to Hillary’s $180,990 — a 4-1 margin on the spending.

If Hillary can come back here, it’ll really be a story.

Well first off she’s spending a bunch of money in a state that doesn’t really have a ton of delegates. This should be one of those insignificant states Mark Penn keeps talking about, and yet now it’s somehow extremely significant. Why? Because after 8 Ls, it’s important for her to actually get a W in her column.

For more proof of how Hillary has stepped it up, here’s another ad she’s running in the state countering Obama’s counter to her first “he’s afraid to debate me” ad.

Again, this means one thing: Wisconsin REALLY matters. It’s the reason she put an attack ad out there in the first place and is answering his answer. She really didn’t plan for a fight after Super Tuesday, and now things are getting more pointed…again.

Still, I listen to her “solutions vs. speeches” message and I just don’t think it’s going to happen for her. These talking points are easily countered, especially since they’re pretty much the same things she’s been saying about Obama since day 1.

I guess we’ll see…

Today, Bill Clinton is campaigning for Hillary Clinton in Madison, Wisconsin. He’s scheduled to speak at 2:15 CST. I’ll be live blogging.

1:15: Alright, I’m here and I have my press credentials. He’s speaking at the UW Stock Pavilion. It’s probably worth noting that there are animal feces on the floor (not a lot, but enough to make the place smell a bit and certainly enough to mess up one’s shoes, like mine for instance). This is an especially sour point for me because I was forced to throw out my soda before taking my seat in the press area. Apparently, poop is okay, but Coke Zero is just going to create too much of a mess.

1:30: Apparently, President Truman spoke here during his campaign for reelection. I wonder if it was smelly/messy back then.

1:50: They’re still seating people. An inordinate amount of effort appears to be going into the locations of where people stand/stand.

2:12: And the seating continues. As of now, it’s just about halfway filled with some people on the floor in front of the stage. So, I’d say there are about 1100-1300 people right now.

[Continued at 2008Central.net]

Translation: Barack will not do what I want him to do.

Listen, if the two hadn’t already had a gazillion debates already then I’d understand. However, since being challenged by Hillary to debate him he’s agreed to two more debates between Super Tuesday and the beginning of March. That’s basically one a week. If that’s not enough for her then tough.

But here’s the thing, this ad really isn’t about debates. It’s about Hillary trying to push the other two memes about universal health care and economic recovery. As such, it waters down the message and makes it less effective. She should have just stayed on the “he’s scared of me” message. We’ll see if this works or not in the coming days.