Donklephant » Wisconsin

Scott Walker’s Hiring Problem

Justin Gardner — Tue, 05 Apr 2011 03:54:11 +0000

At the same time he’s fighting the unions in Wisconsin…he hired the kid of a donor to oversee a very important, high paying regulatory position?

Yikes…

Just in his mid-20s, Brian Deschane has no college degree, very little management experience and two drunken-driving convictions.

Yet he has landed an $81,500-per-year job in Gov. Scott Walker’s administration overseeing environmental and regulatory matters and dozens of employees at the Department of Commerce. Even though Walker says the state is broke and public employees are overpaid, Deschane already has earned a promotion and a 26% pay raise in just two months with the state.

Credibility officially shot.

Joe Scarborough Calls Union Busting UnAmerican

Justin Gardner — Tue, 01 Mar 2011 20:33:04 +0000

Obviously this doesn’t mean that unions haven’t overreached or don’t have flaws. They have and they do…just like businesses and governments have flaws and put their employee in harm’s way, discriminate against them, etc.

Because let’s remember that unions didn’t spring up because they weren’t needed. And let’s not pretend that employers won’t exploit their workers if they can. A business is nothing more than an amoral system designed to make a profit. Some companies are awesome and put their employees (and customers) above some “business” decisions that would fatten the bottom line, but they’re not exactly common. So workers need an equally amoral system that’s focused on getting everything they can too.

Also…we’re talking about taking away the ability for people to collectively bargain. Walker won’t concede, and yet the unions in Wisconsin have already said they would cut back on salaries, benefits, etc. Where’s the compromise?

I’m glad Joe has said this publicly and I wish more Republicans would say the same thing instead of being so knee-jerk anti-Union.

Taiwan explains Wisconsin

mw — Fri, 25 Feb 2011 20:13:38 +0000

As previously noted, Taiwanese animations are the future of all mainstream news. Here the folks at NextMedia have distilled US TV news, newspaper commentary, blogs, and twitter feeds on the Wisconsin standoff into an easily digestible two minute animation. I actually think four posts in a row on the same subject is probably two too many, but as this story is winding down anyway, I’ll give NMA the last word.

[I think Jacob said he would put the weekly Open Thread out today, but if not - feel free to use or abuse this one.]

This is what a cheesehead protest looks like in Taiwan:

“Republican Scott Walker was elected governor of Wisconsin in the US mid-term elections last year. He ran on a conservative platform emphasizing fiscal responsibility.Once in office, Walker set about dealing with Wisconsin’s debt problem. He targeted the benefits of Wisconsin’s public sector unions.Knowing that they would lose if the matter came to a vote, Wisconsin’s Democratic senators fled to deny Republican lawmakers from bringing the matter to the floor. When Walker started threatening to cut benefits, public sector workers like teacher, firemen and nurses were enraged. Despite threats from Walker that he might mobilize the national guard against the unions, 25,000 strikers converged on Wisconsin’s state capitol to protest the proposed cuts. The protest struck a chord all over the world. A local pizzeria got orders from as far abroad as Egypt to help feed the strikers. But what will happen to Wisconsin’s fiscal condition if they get what they want?”

I wonder why I waste time watching the news. It is easier to just wait for NMA to distill every story down to its essence.

They did miss all the giddy excitement on the left about the embarrassing prank call to Governor Walker from a fake David Koch. Walker did not say anything in the call that is going to change the dynamic in Wisconsin. The problem is not anything he said. The problem is that he took the call. The only likely effect will be to Walker’s presidential ambitions and potential re-election. He’ll be running against that audio recording for the rest of his political life. So it goes. He took the call, now he’ll live with it. I’m good with that.

Taking that call fanned the flames of left wing paranoia about David Koch which is beginning to take on the epic proportions of right wing paranoia about George Soros. But as far as the legislative standoff is concerned, this is a foregone conclusion. Walker will win.

Wisconsin Democrats run for the exits.

Polls do not support the AWOL Wisconsin Senators. The Wisconsin State Assembly passed the Walker Budget Repair Bill after beating back a filibuster and the Senators will have to return sometime or be recalled. The protesters in Madison will have to go back to work or be fired. The Republicans have the votes and Walker has the will. Done deal.

It is all Kabuki Theater in Wisconsin from this point. To quote another blogger who occasionally posts at this site and is currently basking on a Mexico beach “Moving on.”

X-posted from “Divided We Stand United We Fall“

The Left is Not Amused

mw — Wed, 23 Feb 2011 18:35:38 +0000

Jon Stewart is on top of his game this week, skewering media coverage of the Madison Madness, and offering some laugh-out-loud commentary:

For reasons that elude me, this bit was one step over the line for liberal blogger Digby at Hullabaloo who expends almost 800 words to explain why Jon Stewart is not funny and a traitor to the cause:

“I’m fairly sure that the only people who listen to Stewart are liberals who are getting the idea that it’s wrong to get in the streets or call out the other side in rough language. Conservatives just think he’s a useful idiot. I find this attitude very perplexing coming from a comedian, especially one who commonly does things which could be perceived as unfair, silly and undignified.

This is why Colbert’s satire is so much more effective and, frankly, much braver. His satire is firmly aimed at the right, so he cannot take both sides. That’s why it works — it takes a position. By contrast, I’m increasingly not finding Jon’s church-lady finger wagging all that funny, much less cool, and I fast forward though his opening segments more often than not.”

While Digby was not amused, I found her pompous church-lady finger wagging at “Jon’s church-lady finger wagging” to be vaguely bemusing in its own meta-bizzaro “you’ve-got-to-be-kidding-me” kind of way.

From the peanut gallery, Shakesvile, Bob Cesca, and Matt Christie sniff their approval at Digby’s take-down.

James Joyner also took note of Digby’s displeasure:

“The reason I watch Stewart (and Stephen Colbert, who I’ll turn to shortly) and not more vitriolic liberal comics like Bill Maher is precisely because of his civility. While his bits are aimed at people who generally agree with him, he’s not insulting to those who don’t. He’s welcoming and engaging conversation, treating his audience like intelligent, decent people. We tend not to agree on the issues but he rightly calls out the BS on both sides. Given his political leanings, he naturally sees more of it on the Right than the Left. But he at least tries to be intellectually honest and consistent in his principles.”

I suppose I could take a cheap shot by noting the similarity of Digby’s screed to Mao’s dictum that “art must serve the interests of the workers, peasants and soldiers…” but I won’t go there. Let’s just say that if anyone ever needed an example of the stereotypical humorless liberal, I think we found Exhibit “A”.

UPDATE:
The left-leaning side of the political spectrum may find this more amusing. A prank call to Scott Walker is confirmed. That cloud you see over Madison is Governor Walker’s presidential ambitions going up in smoke. H/T Gerry in comments.

X-posted from “Divided We Stand United We Fall“

Elections Have Consequences – Wisconsin Edition

mw — Tue, 22 Feb 2011 05:31:14 +0000

Having won the Wisconsin gubernatorial election in November, Republican Governor Scott Walker set out to do exactly what he said he would do as a candidate. This outraged many Democrats and liberals both in and out of the state of Wisconsin, who apparently believe he should govern more like the Democrat who lost.

A few days ago Rachel Maddow sounded the liberal alarm and, as is often the case, her clarion call is the clearest articulation of the progressive case. We learn from Rachel that nothing less than the entire future of the Democratic Party is at stake in Madison, Wisconsin. Recall that the Democratic Party was characterized as a juggernaut only two short years ago, riding an unstoppable permanent demographic realignment over Republican Party roadkill with an open highway of political dominance rolling out before them. Yet now, suddenly and inexplicably the Democratic Party is facing political extinction in Madison, Wisconsin:

[NOTE: I intended to embed the Maddow youtube here, but apparently my permissions have changed and I cannot]

There is a downside to being crystal clear in your argument. You can be shown to be clearly wrong. Such is the case with the first claim of Maddow’s case, that the state fiscal problems were all ginned up by the new governor. Politifact reports she clearly got her facts wrong:

“There is fierce debate over the approach Walker took to address the short-term budget deficit. But there should be no debate on whether or not there is a shortfall. While not historically large, the shortfall in the current budget needed to be addressed in some fashion. Walker’s tax cuts will boost the size of the projected deficit in the next budget, but they’re not part of this problem and did not create it. We rate Maddow’s take False.”

The rest of Maddow’s argument – that this is really all about money flow to Democratic Party – has merit. In fact, the right and left completely agree on this point. John Fund via Da Tech Guy:

‘Labor historian Fred Siegel offers further reasons why unions are manning the barricades. Mr. Walker would require that public-employee unions be recertified annually by a majority vote of all their members, not merely by a majority of those that choose to cast ballots. In addition, he would end the government’s practice of automatically deducting union dues from employee paychecks. For Wisconsin teachers, union dues total between $700 and $1,000 a year’

This is what this is all about, nothing else, that’s why the biggest guns in the democratic party are fighting this fight. They know those dues will end up funding their campaigns, if they lose this fight here it’s all over…”

Isn’t it great when the right and left, Republicans and Democrats, liberals and conservaives can come together, be of one mind and agree on the facts? Krugman echoes Maddow’s thoughts, saying this is all about power for Republicans, yet with a partisan blind spot as big as Wisconsin, fails to see that this is also all about power for Democrats. And no – this is not a “false equivalency”. This is as truly equivalent as it gets.

Democrats believe that Republican politicians are the beneficiaries of corporate largess and consequently vote taxpayer funds into profits for private contractors, “public-private” partnerships, and contracts for weapon system contracts, with the expectation that portions of said profits are funneled back into supporting Republican campaigns. Republicans believe that Democrats continually increase spending on the size of the public sector and legislate union-friendly rules in order to increase the base of forced dues payed into union coffers which in turn funnel money back into supporting Democratic campaigns. They’re both right. May the circle be unbroken. Kumbayah.

This is one reason among many why this blogger is so adamant that neither party can ever be trusted with all the keys to the castle. Ever. Without exception. But I digress…

Meanwhile, back in Madison, the public sector unions have again organized protests at the steps of the capitol to exercise their Democratic right to shut down the Democratic process and subvert the Democratically expressed wishes of the Wisconsin electorate, in order to be sure that the money flow to the Democratic Party is not interrupted.

The irony was not lost on Joe Klein:

“An election was held in Wisconsin last November. The Republicans won. In a democracy, there are consequences to elections and no one, not even the public employees unions, are exempt from that. There are no guarantees that labor contracts, including contracts governing the most basic rights of unions, can’t be renegotiated, or terminated for that matter. We hold elections to decide those basic parameters. And it seems to me that Governor Scott Walker’s basic requests are modest ones–asking public employees to contribute more to their pension and health care plans, though still far less than most private sector employees do. He is also trying to limit the unions’ abilities to negotiate work rules–and this is crucial when it comes to the more efficient operation of government in a difficult time…

Public employees unions are an interesting hybrid. Industrial unions are organized against the might and greed of ownership. Public employees unions are organized against the might and greed… of the public?

The events in Wisconsin are a rebalancing of power that, after decades of flush times and lax negotiating, had become imbalanced. That is also something that, from time to time, happens in a democracy.”

Patrick McIlheran finds support for the Governor from a surprising historical source:

“Roosevelt’s reign certainly was the bright dawn of modern unionism. The legal and administrative paths that led to 35% of the nation’s workforce eventually unionizing by a mid-1950s peak were laid by Roosevelt. But only for the private sector. Roosevelt openly opposed bargaining rights for government unions. “The process of collective bargaining, as usually understood, cannot be transplanted into the public service,” Roosevelt wrote in 1937 to the National Federation of Federal Employees. Yes, public workers may demand fair treatment, wrote Roosevelt. But, he wrote, “I want to emphasize my conviction that militant tactics have no place” in the public sector. “A strike of public employees manifests nothing less than an intent on their part to prevent or obstruct the operations of Government.”

As Klein notes, the politics of power has a way of balancing itself out. The media and Democrats exclusive focus on the union power-play in the “Scott Walker Budget Repair Bill“, have allowed some of the possibly more egregious issues buried in this bill to remain relatively unnoticed. This bill is almost as unreadable as Obamacare. I’ve tried. Undoubtedly Walker is overreaching with the executive empowered to drive crony-capitalist deals through loopholes created in this bill. As with Democrats in 2009, the seeds of destruction for the resurgent Wisconsin Republicans are being planted now in 2011. Perhaps in this very bill. It’s the nature of the beast.

Regardless, I think the Democrats and unions are seriously misreading the temperament of the Wisconsin voters who just elected this Republican governor and legislature. Particularly when Democrats talk about initiating recall campaigns for Wisconsin Republican politicians. Wisconsin does have a history of eating their own, but this recall campaign is truly delusional, and likely to backfire on Democrats in a big way. Who is more likely to get recalled? Republicans doing what they were elected to do four months ago? Or Wisconsin Democratic legislators shirking their responsibilities and hiding out in Illinois motels?

Well, Democrats are always welcomed in Chicago. Maybe the Wisconsin legislators should stay in their Illinois hideouts. They may find that they will be more welcomed in the President’s old Cook County stomping grounds than back in their home districts.

Excerpted and x-posted from “Divided We Stand United We Fall.“

Moderate Wisconsin Republicans Propose Union Compromise, But…

Justin Gardner — Mon, 21 Feb 2011 12:05:17 +0000

First, let’s understand what we’re talking about here. Wisconsin is running a budget deficit because of the fiscal crisis and Republicans are looking to public sector employees to make up the difference.

From WSJ:

Mr. Walker’s bill would close a projected $3.6 billion shortfall by forcing public employees to pay 5.8% of their salary toward their pensions and 12.6% of healthcare premiums, up from 6% on average. Mr. Walker said it is necessary to cut many of the collective bargaining rights from union members to prevent massive layoffs.

So what’s the compromise? The bargaining rights would be reinstated in 2013.

I’m sure you can understand why Democrats aren’t going for this. Because it’s only a compromise if you think Republicans will keep their promise and let the legislation they’re proposing expire. Also, what are they willing to do to raise revenue from other sources in the interim?

Also, the unions have already agreed to help close the fiscal gap…

Several senators also said a compromise on the bill that would sunset the collective bargaining provisions in 2013 would not be acceptable to Democrats. One reason is that Republicans will likely still be in control of both the state senate and assembly and simply extend the provisions. But a bigger reason, according to several senators, is that unions have already agreed to fix the fiscal issues.

Republicans are just looking for a way to take away workers’ rights. That’s all there is to it. The unions and Democrats have already compromised. And to have these collective bargaining rights snatched away so soon after they won them has to sting. See, these folks have been fighting for the better part of 40 years. They won these rights back in 2009. Think you would be out in full force if you fought for 40 years and 2 years later they were trying to be taking away from you?

Meanwhile, the head of the teacher’s union is calling for them to go back to work…

Mary Bell is president of the Wisconsin Education Association Council. She said on Sunday that it’s time for her members to return to work. For districts that do not recognize Monday as the President’s Day holiday, she said teachers should go to work. Others should report as scheduled on Tuesday.

By the way, I know I said I’m on vacation, but I’m in airports most of the day so I’ll probably be posting more.

Russ Feingold Falls In Wisconsin

Justin Gardner — Wed, 03 Nov 2010 03:18:59 +0000

It doesn’t look like it’ll even be close.

From TPM:

As the Republican wave spreads across the country, it’s time to say goodbye to one of the big-name progressive champions of the past 18 years: Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI), champion of campaign finance reform and longtime opponent of the Patriot Act, has gone down in defeat against Republican businessman Ron Johnson. It marks the first time since 1986 that Republicans have won a Senate race here.

With 30% of precincts reporting, Johnson leads by 57%-42%, and has been projected as the winner by NBC News and Fox News.

I doubt this is the last we’ll hear from Feingold, but, as mentioned, this is a big blow for progressive everywhere.

Also, I think this signals that Wisconsin is definitely not a sure thing for Dems come 2012.

Obama Wins In Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Rhode Island and New York

Justin Gardner — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 02:04:05 +0000

79 electoral votes here for the Illinois senator.

Moving on…

Big Ten Battleground: Obama Up Big In Key Midwest States

Justin Gardner — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 18:23:27 +0000

More numbers bring more bad news for McCain.

Now, Big Ten polls the eight states where the Big Ten school are, so some of them (Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota) I’m not going to even bother showing since they’re safely blue.

Instead, I’ll focus on four McCain has been campaigning in recently.

Indiana: +10
Obama 51%
McCain 41%

Ohio: Obama + 12
Obama 53%
McCain 41%

Pennsylvania: Obama +11
Obama 52%
McCain 41%

Wisconsin: Obama +13
Obama 53%
McCain 40%

So first Quinnipiac shows Obama up 14% in Ohio, and now this poll shows him up 12%?

And up +10 in Indiana?

What’s more, compare these numbers to what Big Ten had in mid-September…

The eight states home to the 11 universities in the Big Ten conference were key battlegrounds in the 2004 election, and the results of the poll show that they are among the most competitive in the country and are likely to be pivotal in determining the election outcome.

The surveys show a tight race in all of the Big Ten states except for Obamaâ€™s home state of Illinois, where he holds a 16-point lead over McCain. The two candidates are tied in Iowa and Pennsylvania, and Obama has just a one-point lead in Ohio and Wisconsin. McCain is ahead in just one state â€” Indiana â€” where he leads by 4 percentage points.

Are we seeing a big shift in the electorate?

CNN/Time: Obama Makes Gains In NC, OH, WI, IN, NH

Justin Gardner — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 14:37:56 +0000

First the numbers…

New Hampshire:
Obama 53%, McCain 45%
Obama 51%, McCain 43%, Barr 3%, Nader 1%

Wisconsin:
Obama 51%, McCain 46%
Obama 50%, McCain 42%, Nader 4%, Barr 1%

Ohio:
Obama 50%, McCain 47%
Obama 48%, McCain 45%, Nader 3%, Barr 2%

North Carolina:
Obama 49%, McCain 49%
Obama 49%, McCain 48%, Barr 2%

Indiana:
McCain 51%, Obama 46%
McCain 48%, Obama 46%, Barr 5%

Looks like Barr is really hurting McCain in Indiana, and with such discontent for Republicans this year, I can definitely see more people casting their ballots for the Libertarian candidate.

Some more analysis…

On the eve of the penultimate presidential debate, a new TIME/CNN poll shows John McCain still struggling in states won by George W. Bush in 2004, a sign that last week’s vice presidential debate had little effect on voter opinion. [...]

Last week, the McCain campaign reacted to a polling downturn by shuttering its operation in the state of Michigan and redistributing staff to Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Maine, where electoral votes are distributed by congressional district. In a conference call last week, Mike DuHaime, the McCain campaign’s political director, acknowledged that the national mood and Obama’s deep pockets had put previously solid Republican states like Indiana in play.

“I do think just the overall environment right now that we face is one of the worst environments for any Republican in probably 35 years,” DuHaime said. “Any time you have that, you have states move within that margin.”

The big question now, besides Ayers, Rezko and Wright…what else does McCain have to drive up Obama’s negatives? And can he even accomplish that with so much of the electorate having already made up their minds.

McCain’s Road To POTUS Goes Through WI, MN Or PA?

Justin Gardner — Thu, 02 Oct 2008 21:20:52 +0000

That’s right. The McCain camp actually thinks they can win Wisconsin, Minnesota or Pennsylvania. Failure to win any of these states means he loses.

Huh?

â€œOur ability to pick off one of those three states is where our fortunes are largely held,â€ a McCain official said. â€œThese are states where Barack Obama is on the defense.â€

McCain has very limited ways to win, with no room for error. Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) still has many routes to the White House and so can afford to campaign on a much broader playing field. [...]

McCain figures that winning one of those three big remaining swing states, plus those he considers safe, would put him 10 shy of the 270 electoral votes he needs to win.

â€œWe can dig up an additional 10 electoral votes in Nevada, Colorado and New Hampshire,â€ the official said.

Well, it’s definitely a “maverick” move, but so far this political season that has meant ill-informed and horribly executed.

But let’s get real folks. Pennsylvania is out. Republicans always think they can capture this one, but they always fall short. What’s more, the latest polling shows Obama pulling away significantly.

Minnesota and Wisconsin are definitely closer, but as mentioned earlier, Obama took Wisconsin by 17 points over Hillary so there’s not really a “blue collar” problem there.

So that leaves Minnesota, which is trending closer but is still a stretch. And my guess is that when the new state polls come out next week they’ll show a jump for Obama there too, effectively putting the state out of reach.

I guess we’ll see…

Quinnipiac: Obama Up By 11 In Wisconsin

Justin Gardner — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 16:12:20 +0000

Obama – 50
McCain – 39

Obama loses 2 from last month, but the 11 point margin remains pretty consistent with other polls I’m seeing.

Some demo info…

Women back Obama 56 – 31.
Men back McCain 49 – 43.
White voters back Obama 48 – 42 percent.
Obama leads 60 – 31 among voters 18 to 34.
Obama leads 47 – 43 among voters 35 to 54
Obama leads 47 – 41 among voters over 55

Rasmussen saw pretty much the exact same thing earlier in the month, and Pollster backs that up…

Long story short, Wisconsin looks solidly blue unless something crazy happens.

More next month…

Quinnipiac: Obama Leads By 13 In Wisconsin

Justin Gardner — Thu, 26 Jun 2008 21:44:52 +0000

Obama – 52%
McCain – 39%

The details…

Wisconsin women likely voters back Obama 53 – 37 percent while men back the Democrat 51 – 40 percent.

White voters back Obama 49 – 42 percent.

He leads 61 – 35 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old, 52 – 39 percent among voters 35 to 54 years old and 47 – 41 percent among voters over 55.

Obama’s favorability is 54 – 27 percent, with 48 – 30 percent for McCain.

As I’ve done in the other three posts about Quinnipiac’s polls, I’m going to compare Bush’s favorable/unfavorable ratings with what Wisconsin voters think about the war.

Bush’s favorable/unfavorable
Favorable – 27%
Unfavorable – 67%

Support for staying in Iraq
Keep Troops There – 51%
Withdraw – 41%

A smaller gap between staying and going in Iraq, but an extremely low approval for Bush looks to be pushing Obama’s lead even higher.

Is Wisconsin solidly blue this cycle? Looks as if.

More as it develops…

Poll: Obama Leads McCain By 13 In Wisconsin

Justin Gardner — Thu, 12 Jun 2008 22:21:35 +0000

Obama: 50%
McCain: 37%

Some perspective from WisPolitics:

Wisconsin was a key battleground in the presidential contests of 2000 and 2004 and saw extraordinarily tight contests in both years. Al Gore beat George W. Bush by 5,708 votes (0.2 percent) in 2000, and John Kerry bested Bush by 11,384 votes in 2004 (0.38 percent). Goldstein points out, â€œIn both 2000 and 2004, party attachments in the state were virtually identical with equal numbers of voters identifying with the Democrats and the GOP. One of the striking results in this poll and consistent with other survey work I have done in the state, the Democrats now enjoy a major advantage in party identification.â€ In the study, 38 percent of probable voters identified with the Democrats and 24 percent with Republicans.

Obama has very strong favorable ratings with 64 percent of Wisconsin probable voters saying they have a favorable opinion and 32 percent having an unfavorable opinion. McCain also has relatively strong favorables, too, at 53 percent to 44 percent. Obama is seen as the candidate to bring about change (70 percent to McCainâ€™s 42 percent) while McCain is seen as the experienced candidate (84 percent to Obamaâ€™s 43 percent). Still, as the evidence shows, McCain faces a stiff headwind in Wisconsin.

Of note, this is the very first poll from this University of Wisconsin’s Department of Political Science, so we may want to take this with a grain of salt.

Still, Obama did exceedingly well here during the primaries and if a few other polls come out and paint it solidly blue, he may not need to spend much money in the fall.

Obama Picks Up 2 More Superdelegates

Justin Gardner — Wed, 14 May 2008 22:34:55 +0000

They seem to come in pairs of two lately, don’t they?

DNC member Lena Taylor of Wisconsin…

State Sen. Lena Taylor from Milwaukee announced her support for Obama on Wednesday afternoon. Late Tuesday night University of Wisconsin-Madison student Awais Khaleel announced his endorsement for Obama on a YouTube video.

That makes 11 superdelegates in Wisconsin for Obama with just two for New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton. Three superdelegates remain undecided. They are U.S. Sens. Herb Kohl, Russ Feingold and Feingold staffer Paula Zellner.

…And Mike Morgan of Oklahoma…

Morgan was a supporter of John Edwards for the Democratic nomination before Edwards suspended his campaign. Edwards on Wednesday also announced his support for Obama.

Morgan says he believes Obama will be a plus for legislative candidates across the country as the Democratic nominee.

He says Obama is “creating enthusiasm from voters unlike anything we have seen in our lifetime.”

Post-Pennsylvania Delegate Pickups:
Obama – 58.5
Clinton – 14.5

Total Superdelegates:
Obama – 289.5
Clinton – 273.5

Total post-PA pickups after the jump…

Obama superdelegate pickups:
Mike Morgan (OK), DNC – May 14, 2008
Lena Taylor (WI), DNC – May 14, 2008
Awais Khaleel (WI), DNC – May 14, 2008
Lauren Wolfe (MI), DNC – May 14, 2008
Christine Schon Marques (DA), Chair – May 14, 2008
Pete Visclosky (IN), Representative – May 14, 2008
Anita Bonds (DC), DNC – May 13, 2008
Roy Romer (CO), DNC – May 13, 2008
Joe Donnelly (IN), Representative – May 13, 2008
Ray Nagin (LA), DNC – May 13, 2008
Daniel Akaka (HI), Senator – May 12, 2008
Dolly Strazar (HI), DNC – May 12, 2008
R. Keith Roark (ID), Dem Chairman – May 12, 2008
Tom Allen (ME), Representative – May 12, 2008
Crystal Strait (CA), DNC – May 11, 2008
Harry Mitchell (AZ), Representative – May 10, 2008
Dave Regan (OH), Add-On – May 10, 2008
Kevin Rodriguez (VI), DNC – May 10, 2008
Carol Burke (VI), DNC – May 10, 2008
Kristi Cumming (UT), Add-On – May 10, 2008
Joe Johnson (VA), DNC – May 9, 2008
Vernon Watkins (CA), DNC – May 9, 2008
Wilber Lee Jeffcoat (SC), DNC Vice Chairman – May 9, 2008
Laurie Weahkee (NM), DNC – May 9, 2008
Mazie Hirono (HI), Representative – May 9, 2008
Ed Espinoza (CA), DNC – May 9, 2008
John Gage (MD), DNC – May 9, 2008
Peter DeFazio (OR), Representative – May 9, 2008
Donald Payne (NJ), Representative – May 9, 2008
Rick Larsen (WA), Representative – May 8, 2008
Brad Miller (NC), Representative – May 8, 2008
Jennifer McClellan (VA), DNC – May 7, 2008
Inola Henry (CA), DNC – May 7, 2008
Jerry Meek (NC), Dem Chairman – May 7, 2008
Jeanette Council (NC), DNC – May 7, 2008
Lauren Dugas Glover (MD), DNC Vice Chairman – May 5, 2008
Michael Cryor (MD), DNC Chairman – May 5, 2008
Kalyn Free (OK), DNC – May 5, 2008
Jaime Paulino (Guam), DNC & Territory Vice Chair – May 4, 2008
Parris Glendening (MD), Governor – May 3, 2008
Inez Tenenbaum (SC), DNC – May 3, 2008
Brian ColÃ³n (TX), DNC – May 3, 2008
Paul G. Kirk, Jr. (MA), DNC – May 2, 2008
John Patrick (TX), DNC – May 1, 2008
Barbara Flynn Currie (IL), DNC – May 1, 2008
Todd Stroger (IL), DNC – May 1, 2008
Richard M. Daley (IL), DNC – May 1, 2008
Joe Andrew (IN), DNC – May 1, 2008
Bruce Braley (IA), Representative – Apr 30, 2008
Lois Capps (CA), Representative – Apr 30, 2008
Baron Hill (IN), Representative – Apr 30, 2008
Ben Chandler (KY), Representative – Apr 29, 2008
Richard Machacek (IA), DNC – Apr 29, 2008
Jeff Bingaman (NM), Senator – Apr 28, 2008
Charlene Fernandez (AZ), DNC & State Vice Chair – Apr 26, 2008
David Wu (OR), Representative – Apr 24, 2008
Audra Ostergard (NE), DNC & State Vice Chair – Apr 23, 2008
Brad Henry (OK), Governor – Apr 23, 2008

Clinton superdelegate pickups:
Vicki Harwell (TN), Add-On – May 14, 2008
Arthur Powell (MA), Add-On – May 10, 2008
Ciro Rodriguez (TX), Representative – May 9, 2008
Chris Carney (PA), Representative – May 9, 2008
Brad Ellsworth (IN), Representative – May 7, 2008
Heath Shuler (NC), Representative – May 7, 2008
Theresa Morelli (Dems Abroad), DNC May 5, 2008
Kathleen Kennedy Townsend (MD), Lt. Governor – May 3, 2008
Jaime A. Gonzalez Jr. (TX), DNC – May 2, 2008
Andrew Cuomo (NY), DNC – May 1, 2008
Thomas DiNapoli (NY), DNC – May 1, 2008
C. Virginia Field (NY), DNC – May 1, 2008
Carmen Arroyo (NY), DNC – May 1, 2008
John Olsen (CT), DNC – May 1, 2008
Luisette Cabanas (PR), DNC & Territory Vice Chair – Apr 30, 2008
William George (PA), DNC – Apr 30, 2008
Ike Skelton (MO), Representative, Apr 29, 2008
Mike Easley (NC), Governor – Apr 28, 2008
Kathy Sullivan (NH), Add-On – Apr 26, 2008
John Tanner (TN), Representative – Apr 23, 2008

Clinton superdelegate losses:
Kevin Rodriguez (VI), DNC – May 10, 2008
Donald Payne (NJ), Representative – May 9, 2008
Jennifer McClellan (VA), DNC – May 7, 2008
Arlene P. Bordallo (Guam), DNC & Former Territory Vice Chair- May 4, 2008
Joe Andrew (IN), DNC – May 1, 2008

Obama Adds 2 More Superdelegates Today

Justin Gardner — Wed, 14 May 2008 20:42:28 +0000

College Democrats of America President Lauren Wolfe and Vice President Awais Khaleel endorse Obama today via YouTube:

However, since Wolfe is from Michigan, her vote will only count if the DNC comes to some sort of agreement with the state. That’s why I’m only adding 1 to Obama’s total below.

Post-Pennsylvania Delegate Pickups:
Obama – 56.5
Clinton – 14.5

Total Superdelegates:
Obama – 287.5
Clinton – 273.5

Total post-PA pickups after the jump…

Obama superdelegate pickups:
Awais Khaleel (WI), DNC – May 14, 2008
Lauren Wolfe (MI), DNC – May 14, 2008
Christine Schon Marques (DA), Chair – May 14, 2008
Pete Visclosky (IN), Representative – May 14, 2008
Anita Bonds (DC), DNC – May 13, 2008
Roy Romer (CO), DNC – May 13, 2008
Joe Donnelly (IN), Representative – May 13, 2008
Ray Nagin (LA), DNC – May 13, 2008
Daniel Akaka (HI), Senator – May 12, 2008
Dolly Strazar (HI), DNC – May 12, 2008
R. Keith Roark (ID), Dem Chairman – May 12, 2008
Tom Allen (ME), Representative – May 12, 2008
Crystal Strait (CA), DNC – May 11, 2008
Harry Mitchell (AZ), Representative – May 10, 2008
Dave Regan (OH), Add-On – May 10, 2008
Kevin Rodriguez (VI), DNC – May 10, 2008
Carol Burke (VI), DNC – May 10, 2008
Kristi Cumming (UT), Add-On – May 10, 2008
Joe Johnson (VA), DNC – May 9, 2008
Vernon Watkins (CA), DNC – May 9, 2008
Wilber Lee Jeffcoat (SC), DNC Vice Chairman – May 9, 2008
Laurie Weahkee (NM), DNC – May 9, 2008
Mazie Hirono (HI), Representative – May 9, 2008
Ed Espinoza (CA), DNC – May 9, 2008
John Gage (MD), DNC – May 9, 2008
Peter DeFazio (OR), Representative – May 9, 2008
Donald Payne (NJ), Representative – May 9, 2008
Rick Larsen (WA), Representative – May 8, 2008
Brad Miller (NC), Representative – May 8, 2008
Jennifer McClellan (VA), DNC – May 7, 2008
Inola Henry (CA), DNC – May 7, 2008
Jerry Meek (NC), Dem Chairman – May 7, 2008
Jeanette Council (NC), DNC – May 7, 2008
Lauren Dugas Glover (MD), DNC Vice Chairman – May 5, 2008
Michael Cryor (MD), DNC Chairman – May 5, 2008
Kalyn Free (OK), DNC – May 5, 2008
Jaime Paulino (Guam), DNC & Territory Vice Chair – May 4, 2008
Parris Glendening (MD), Governor – May 3, 2008
Inez Tenenbaum (SC), DNC – May 3, 2008
Brian ColÃ³n (TX), DNC – May 3, 2008
Paul G. Kirk, Jr. (MA), DNC – May 2, 2008
John Patrick (TX), DNC – May 1, 2008
Barbara Flynn Currie (IL), DNC – May 1, 2008
Todd Stroger (IL), DNC – May 1, 2008
Richard M. Daley (IL), DNC – May 1, 2008
Joe Andrew (IN), DNC – May 1, 2008
Bruce Braley (IA), Representative – Apr 30, 2008
Lois Capps (CA), Representative – Apr 30, 2008
Baron Hill (IN), Representative – Apr 30, 2008
Ben Chandler (KY), Representative – Apr 29, 2008
Richard Machacek (IA), DNC – Apr 29, 2008
Jeff Bingaman (NM), Senator – Apr 28, 2008
Charlene Fernandez (AZ), DNC & State Vice Chair – Apr 26, 2008
David Wu (OR), Representative – Apr 24, 2008
Audra Ostergard (NE), DNC & State Vice Chair – Apr 23, 2008
Brad Henry (OK), Governor – Apr 23, 2008

Obama Wins Wisconsin Big

Justin Gardner — Wed, 20 Feb 2008 03:48:39 +0000

Looks like he’ll end up finishing the night with a lead of about 13%, which is bad news for Hillary. Her and her team threw some pretty significant attacks at him that dominated the last couple news cycles and it looked like it actually helped him. In fact, if I remember correctly from exit polls I heard tonight, voters said overwhelmingly that her attacks were more unfair. How about that?

Here are some demographics via exit polls, via Drudge:

Obama Won:
Women (51-49)
All age groups under 65
All education levels
All regions of the state — urban, suburban and rural
Voters without college degrees (50-48)
Democrats (50-49)
Whites (53-46)
White men (59-38)
Voters who decided in the last week (58-42)

Won or tied voters of all income levels
Tied among white women
Tied among union members
Tied among union households

So it looks like he cut into all of her power alleys except for white women. No word on Hispanics yet, but I think their numbers in this state were statistically insignificant. I’ll find out soon I’m sure.

Here’s how Ed Morrissey sees it…

Calling it a night. Looks like a solid win for Obama, one that will help him in two weeks in Texas and Ohio. Hillary can just about hit the panic button now. If she can’t win both Texas and Ohio on March 4th, the Democratic Party will start calling for her withdrawal to avoid the convention meltdown.

She needed to either have this be a close one or win it. She did neither.

We’ll see how this all shakes out tomorrow.

UPDATE:
Okay, we’re actually looking at landslide proportions here.

With 99% reporting, he has won 58% to 41%, which represents a 17 point spread. It’s my opinion that double digits means a big win and after you cross the 15 point threshold, you’re into landslide territory.

Just to give you some perspective on this, McCain has his nomination locked up and he won 55% to Huckabee’s 37% tonight. That’s an 18 point spread. So Obama beat Hillary by virtually the same amount.

Also, and most importantly, he seems to have gained an 11 point delegate advantage on her tonight. This is the real reason Wisconsin was so important. Now she’s going to have to win Ohio and Texas by even bigger margins, and Texas looks to be shaping up to possibly even be a win for Obama.

Another thing to note, he has two weeks to campaign in the March 2nd states now and as we’ve seen in nearly every single place this guy has visited, he makes up ground when he gets on the ground and shakes hands.

Wisconsin Primary Preview

Justin Gardner — Tue, 19 Feb 2008 20:09:47 +0000

TPM, take it away…

Any predictions?

About That ARG Wisconsin Poll…

Justin Gardner — Mon, 18 Feb 2008 17:42:54 +0000

It shows Clinton leading, but what TPM missed is that this isn’t showing anything new for this particular poll. In fact, this poll is actually good news for Barack because it shows that he gained some ground from the last time they conducted one back on the 6th through the 7th.

At that time, Hillary had 50% to Obama’s 41%. Now the gap is 49% to 43%. Not a big deal, but it could show that while this ARG poll may not predict the final outcome of the contest, it is showing the gap getting smaller and that could actually be seen as Obama gaining a wider lead if you consider the trends of other polls.

More as it develops…

Wisconsin Polls Show Obama Up

Justin Gardner — Mon, 18 Feb 2008 16:56:52 +0000

Courtesy of TPM:

ARG: Clinton 49%, Obama 43% (Feb. 16)

Research 200: Obama 47%, Clinton 42% (Feb. 15)

Rasmussen: Obama 47%, Clinton 43% (Feb. 14)

Strategic Vision (R): Obama 45%, Clinton 41% (Feb. 13)

PPP (D): Obama 50%, Clinton 39% (Feb. 12)

One thing they all show pretty consistently is that about 10% of voters haven’t made up their mind yet. Where will those votes break? That’s going to be the most important part of tomorrow’s story line.

UPDATE:
I’m sorry, I completely didn’t see that Clinton was up in that latest ARG poll, but as TPM says they’ve been incredibly inaccurate over the course of this election. We’ll see if they’ve turned it around.

Again, a Clinton win in Wisconsin would be big. No doubt about that.