Bush Poll Numbers Continue To Fall
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in General Politics, PollsHe doesn’t even have a majority of Republicans:
Even in his own party, just under half of Republicans, 49 percent, now strongly approve of Bush’s job performance; it was 71 percent at the start of the year â€â€? a huge 22-point fall in home-crowd intensity. And it’s a similar story among conservatives, another core Bush group: Their strong approval has fallen 14 points this year, to 38 percent.
Expect Republican politicians to start jumping off Bush’s sinking ship soon. After all, they’ll need to get some distance between him and their re-election campaigns.
Here are some more lowlights of the poll:
- Military Casualties: In this poll, 73 percent of Americans call the level of U.S. military casualties in Iraq “unacceptable,” and fewer than half, 46 percent, think the war has contributed to the long-term security of the United States. Security is the positive side of cost-benefit evaluations of the war; without it balancing the costs, support for the war goes down. And indeed, just 39 percent now say the war was worth fighting.
- Gas: Gasoline prices were rising even before Katrina; immediately after it made landfall they hit a record, $3.07 a gallon, and consumer confidence tanked. While gas prices have eased since, economic complaints continue apace. Bush’s 61 percent disapproval for handling the economy is the worst since his father’s 72 percent in summer 1992.
- Terrorism: Republicans still are with Bush � 86 percent approve of his work on terrorism � but that plummets to 39 percent among independents (the quintessential swing group), and barely over two in 10 Democrats.
- Confidence: Measures of confidence tell a similar story: Just 29 percent of Americans express substantial confidence in the Bush administration, while 71 percent don’t. And nearly half, 49 percent, say their confidence in the administration has been decreasing lately, while a scant two percent say it’s been rising. Even among Republicans and conservatives, about a third say their confidence has decreased.
However, Bush shouldn’t give up hope. Bad poll numbers are the hallmark of many second terms:
But history shows that tides of opinion can turn. In late 1995, just 25 percent expressed confidence in the Clinton administration. That improved for Clinton in a retrospective measurement at the end of his presidency five years later.
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November 3rd, 2005 at 11:22 pm
So, hey, Democrats. There’s this fat, juicy political middle sitting there in the road. Looks like it fell off that truck that just went past in flames, with the Texas guy behind the wheel. Are you going to do anything about it? Or just sit there and wait for it to grow legs and walk on over to the porch where you’re sitting with Michael Moore and Cindy Sheehan and such.
Cause you know that didn’t happen the last two times, either.
November 4th, 2005 at 9:19 am
Nice shout out, Callimachus. But is anyone listening? Or is the Democratic game plan simply to hope that the next elections will be reruns of 1980 with GWB playing the hapless J. Carter inabsentia?
November 4th, 2005 at 10:16 am
The Dems can’t square the circle of DLC Dems and Campus Dems. For whatever reason the Dems cannot manage to find common ground between their wings — unlike the GOP which has done that brilliantly.
I’m not usually one for the fuhrerprinzip but this is a case where a galvanizing, unifying leader is needed to roll the two wings into one. I have no candidates for that role. The best Dems seem to be capable but low-wattage – Biden, Richardson, Edwards. Or else they are musty retreads – Hillary, Gore, Kerry. I don’t know enough about Bayh or Warner but neither strikes me as a reincarnated Andy Jackson, FDR, JFK or a Democrat Reagan. There’s Barack Obama but he seems about two years too junior to make a good run in 2008.
November 4th, 2005 at 12:39 pm
Michael Reynolds? He’s on vacation, busy with selling his house, buying a new one, etc. I don’t know who you are- but leave Michael alone.
November 4th, 2005 at 2:09 pm
Squaring the circle is right is exactly right, Michael. Hillary can do it easily (argh). But that ignores the larger question is whether she can square the circle of a much broader nationwide electorate (that is, how many Red States can she pick up?)