Ron Paul Focusing On New Hampshire
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, New Hampshire, Ron PaulMakes sense. It’s one of the most Libertarian states out there. Very fiscally conservative, pro gun, anti war. So if anybody can pull an upset there, it would be an insurgent campaign like Paul’s. And I have a feeling his grassroot support is going to be highly concentrated in that area anyway. In fact, I know for a fact a friend oh mine is going to go to New Hampshire and volunteer that week.
Here’s more from Wash Post:
The campaign does control one key area: mass-media purchases. Last month, it bought $1.1 million worth of television advertising time in New Hampshire for the remainder of the campaign, as well as about $430,000 worth of radio time in the state, said Jesse Benton, a national campaign spokesman. There are three television ads now in circulation — one on spending, one on civil liberties and one on the campaign’s momentum — with two more in the works.The campaign’s other major investment has been in direct mail. Benton and Chicoine declined to say how much the campaign has spent on mailings, but supporters proudly report receiving multiple pieces in their mailboxes and point to the high quality of the work, including a sleek 12-page, 8-by-11-inch brochure that supporters say went to every Republican in the state.
But the campaign still has plenty of money to spend in the final weeks in New Hampshire. Benton said it has to leave enough to compete in South Carolina and Nevada afterward, and it can buy only so much more television time here because most has already been reserved by other campaigns. But it is planning to add a couple of staff members in New Hampshire, and “if there’s more radio that needs to be bought, it will be bought,” he said.
Does he really think he can compete in South Carolina? Seems more like a social conservative, pro-war state to me. Nevada, however, looks like a good shot for Paul. They’re very much in the fiscal conservative, pro-freedom mindset.
But first, New Hampshire. And as the WSJ points out, Paul’s campaign doesn’t seem to have a very clear strategy to win, especially since they’re counting on those historically “unreliable first time voters”:
Many supporters here in Manchester and in Salem, where Mr. Paul appeared at a town hall meeting, insist their candidate can win. But the strategy is foggy: Even Mr. Paul can’t explain it, and he’s uncertain of the outcome. “I have no idea,” he said in an interview, when asked to gauge his chances for the nomination.Many of his supporters, while vocal and enthusiastic, are from other states and can’t vote in the Jan. 8 primary. Staten Island, New York’s Lou Barrett, 56 years old and dressed as Santa Claus, said he came to New Hampshire to get other people here to vote for Mr. Paul. Mr. Barrett isn’t a registered Republican in New York, either, and thus can’t vote for Mr. Paul in his home state’s Feb. 5 closed primary. Still, he says, “We’re winning the hearts and minds.” Mr. Barrett said he hopes the $123 Santa costume will leave voters with a positive feeling about Mr. Paul.
Jeff Nelson, president of Thomas More College in Merrimack, N.H., said Mr. Paul’s strength is likely to come from first-time voters, making it more difficult to gauge his effect on the primary. “I think he’s attracting voters that otherwise wouldn’t participate,” he said. “I’ve been around the [Mitt] Romney campaign, the [Rudy] Giuliani and the [Sen. John] McCain people, and there’s no one there that’s attracted to Ron Paul.”
Dean was banking on first time voters too in ‘04, but they didn’t turn out. However, that was in Iowa, so New Hampshire could be different. It’s always been a state where spoilers do well, and it catapulted Bill Clinton into the lead in ‘92, even though he got second place. Will it do the same for Paul?
This entry was posted on Thursday, December 6th, 2007 and is filed under 2008 Election, New Hampshire, Ron Paul. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
December 6th, 2007 at 9:29 am
I believe y’all are going to be very suprised in South Carolina -a State where States Rights rule the minds of Southerners and there is only one canidate who supports the Jefferson Republicans in that aspect - Ron Paul.
December 6th, 2007 at 10:02 am
Why do you keep comparing Howard Dean to Ron Paul? Just because Paul has a big following on the internet? If you’ll remember, Dean was a media darling and topping “polls” leading into primary season. If anyone is Dean on the GOP side, it’s Giuliani. You’ve been comparing Dean to Paul for months, and while they do share the common trait of a huge internet following, but the comparisson ENDS THERE. There are way more DIFFERENCES than SIMILARITIES between Paul and Dean (not counting the obvious fact of their differing political views).
December 6th, 2007 at 10:22 am
The only real reason people can’t bring themselves to support Ron Paul stems from a deep-seated (and understandable) fear of living free from the intrusive tentacles of abusive big government. “Who will pave the roads?” “Who will deliver the mail?” “Who will do this or that?” are their primary arguments (most of which are Constitutionally mandated anyway). The majority have been conditioned to equate freedom with danger, i.e. they believe we’ll be MORE vulnerable to attack with a strong but non-interventionist military.
This is beginning to break down, however, with news of our faulty Iranian intelligence reports (if oral sex is an impeachable offense, this isn’t?!?), news of the falling dollar, and now possible federal bailouts or rate freezes for Corporate America. This is why the Paul phenomenon is growing.
Giuliani, Romney, Huckabee might want to consider running as a third-party candidate if we keep taking back the Real Republican Party.
December 6th, 2007 at 10:23 am
I am now convinced that writers need things to talk about to fill their articles. So much of this Dean comparison etc… is perhaps just reflecting a need to write, write, write, and so you get the same old fluff. I was personally in NH with the campaign and we do have a clear strategy. The reason why you don’t know about it, is because you probably never asked the staff. When I was there, we about 100 volunteers already having clear expectations of guidelines. We should have a 1,000 by the end of Dec!! Go Ron!
December 6th, 2007 at 10:36 am
If you go to YouTube, and review the video of Ron Paul being interviewed by SC reporters, you can hear one SC reporter tell Dr. Paul that “South Carolina is on fire for Ron Paul”.
South Carolina is not offended by the word Revolution, and knows too well about the corruption in Washington. Expect Ron Paul’s message to do well there, as well as all over the south.
December 6th, 2007 at 10:50 am
Ron Paul is raising money less than $100 at a time from over a hundred thousand individuals. To the best of my knowledge Dean never did such a thing. People who send in money are likely to come vote.
December 6th, 2007 at 10:51 am
Independents ALWAYS make the difference in NH.
My experience given a lifetime of following politics here tells me that there has not been this kind of excitement for a candidate here since ‘79 for Reagan. As (I believe it was) John Zogby said, the Independents in NH are spitting between Paul and Obama.
And we are also not afraid of the word “Revolution” here either - The Right to Revolution was one of the first things written into our state Constitution and we were the first state to declare ourselves free of the British in 1774.
JM
December 6th, 2007 at 11:10 am
I was skeptical about SC too, but turns out he’s been polling 6-8% there, about the same as NH.
December 6th, 2007 at 11:26 am
ENOUGH WITH THE HOWARD DEAN COMPARISONS!! Howard Dean still ran a top-down organization, and most of his “volunteers” were PAID. The campaign paid for all the materials and needs for his “volunteers.” Also, Howard Dean had 24/7 media exposure.
December 6th, 2007 at 12:11 pm
New Hampshire is getting special attention, but Ron Paul is one of the few candidates with enough volunteers to run a 50-state campaign. His support out here in California is amazing — just check out Meetup.com.
The mainstream media always talk about his “lean staff” and “thin organization”, as if he has fewer people working for him than the other candidates. The truth is he has far more “boots on the ground”, and even more “planes in the air” and “boats in the water.”
The other media fallacy is the “will his online support translate into votes” question. If they had bothered to report on the straw polls, they would already know this is ludicrous to even ask. Ron Paul supporters are much more likely to donate money, wave signs, attend campaign events, talk up their candidate to their friends, discuss him online, put his bumper sticker on their cars, etc. Supporters this enthusiastic and dedicated are going to be much MORE likely to vote than “supporters” of the other candidates.
December 6th, 2007 at 1:26 pm
I agree… the Dean comparisons are old and tired. The comparison didn’t really relate to begin with……
December 6th, 2007 at 1:44 pm
Come on Justin, you should have realized to not compare Ron Paul to Howard Dean anymore. The only comparison they have is that Dean had a fraction of the internet support that Ron Paul currently has. After that its just fluff as a previous commenter said. My predictions Iowa: 2nd or 3rd, NH: First, MI:First or second, SC: First or second, NV: First, Florida: second or third.
December 6th, 2007 at 6:43 pm
The WaPo article was fatally flawed in that it assumed that the Paul campaign “was not in control” of things as if it were a top-down campaign. This is a classic example of the huge misunderstanding the Old Media has about the campaign and why they can’t seem to get the reporting right. They fall into the trap of “he can’t control his supporters, so he can’t run a country, so he’s not electable” as well as the “his supporters are kooks, so he must be a kook as well, so he’s not electable.” Both are fallacies.
And the WSJ has it wrong too, as the target is not first-time voters but the disgusted and disaffected people who stopped voting. Big difference, and that’s a large part of the support that nobody seems to gauge properly in all of the so-called polls, which tend to focus on likely voters who have voted recently.
December 6th, 2007 at 8:09 pm
It seems to me the Donklephant articles on paul represent a deliberate attempt to sabotage the campaign.
Authors claim to like Ron Paul and then repeatedly slip in veiled insults, claims he can’t win, and attempt to associate him with Howard Dean and other failed campaigns.
It’s really a transparent attempt at sabotage.
December 6th, 2007 at 8:46 pm
The Paul/Dean comparison is still relevant at the zeitgeist level. Does anybody remember how Dean started getting media coverage? It wasn’t because of his message. It was because he started raising a ton of money. What does Paul’s coverage focus on right now? Mainly, it’s the money. Still an apt comparison and I’m going to continue to make it.
And by the way, if any of you think I’m trying to deliberately sabotage the campaign, let me ask you, “Do you know where you are?” People, this is a site about 3rd party, independent, moderate, centrist politics. The reason I write about Ron Paul is because he’s genuinely bringing about a potential 3rd way in politics, and I’ve made no attempt to hide that I think he should ditch the GOP in favor of running 3rd party. I’ve said this many times.
Plus, if you think I have the power to sabotage anything, well, it’s much appreciated, but Donklephant isn’t anywhere close to being big enough to change opinions. I share my feelings about politics because this is a blog. I’m not an unflinching supporter of anybody, and since this is a site designed around the idea of questioning politicians, then yes, I’m going to question Ron Paul too. And if you have a problem with that, well, don’t come here anymore. Pretty simple.
December 6th, 2007 at 11:28 pm
I predict a brokered Republican National Convention and Ron Paul will come away with it.
December 7th, 2007 at 1:05 am
“this is a site about 3rd party, independent, moderate, centrist politics. The reason I write about Ron Paul is because he’s genuinely bringing about a potential 3rd way in politics, and I’ve made no attempt to hide that I think he should ditch the GOP in favor of running 3rd party. I’ve said this many times.”
Yes, and like everything else you write, sending the message that “Paul might run 3rd party” is working against his chances of being elected. Just like continual references to howard dean and bleating about how he won’t win. Just like ridiculously overinflated expectations so you can complain about how disappointed you are a week later.
And why wouldn’t you try to work against the campaign? After all, you’re in favour of “3rd way” “moderate” politics, a half assed attempt to compromise between hard socialism and free markets, ie the statist quo.
December 7th, 2007 at 1:17 am
Hey Justin, don’t worry about Glen’s baseless accusation. 99% of the comments here are intelligent and logical. It’s too bad Glen can’t see Ron Paul from others’ perspectives. Certainly it was good to read about your insights.
Personally, I think Ron Paul is still under the radar and will surprise in several states. Quite a fusion of revolutionary elements have fallen into Ron Paul’s lap. There are people willing to stand up for and even fight for his ideas–especially within the context of the corruption in Washington that has reached new highs under this congress and administration.
December 7th, 2007 at 10:53 am
Statewide Poll released yesterday on RCP had Ron Paul plummeting in South Carolina from 8 to 4, in just a few days.
No doubt, had to do with the Ron Paul mailer scandal. Paul’s campaign had sent out a mailer to Vets and Families of Active Duty all throughout SC implying that he supported the War in Iraq. The Charleston press exposed him on it. Politico.com even wrote a big story on the deception.
As more people come to learn of the real Ron Paul, they become turned off to him.
Eric Dondero, Fmr. Senior Aide
US Congressman Ron Paul (R-TX)
1997-2003
December 7th, 2007 at 3:46 pm
I don’t mind the comparisons to Dean. Paul is not politically like Dean, but let’s look at the facts. Dean raised $700,000 dollars in one day online? Well, I guess that would make Paul the equivalent of 6 Deans.
Yup, that sounds about right to me.
December 7th, 2007 at 3:53 pm
Dondero -Why should I listen to a frm. aide? You were probably fired. Even if you weren’t, the fact that you quit probably means you have an ax to grind.
So, who do you support now?
December 7th, 2007 at 3:58 pm
Hey Dondero, weren’t you FIRED from Ron Paul’s staff?
December 7th, 2007 at 5:13 pm
Mr. Dondero… care to tell us the facts as to why you are no longer an aide to Ron Paul? And care to tell everyone what your “true” agenda really is? Two of Ron Paul’s other staffers have spilled the beans on you. Ultimately, you certainly got what you deserved!!! I’m surprised you have the balls to open your mouth.
I like the biblical saying, “By their fruits Ye shall know them.” You produce rotten fruit and will, by osmosis, be pruned from the orchard.
December 7th, 2007 at 6:53 pm
Was Eric Dondero the staffer who wrote those racist statements in a Ron Paul newsletter over 10 years back? Is THIS the guy who was fired for putting those words in Dr. Paul’s mouth?
December 7th, 2007 at 7:09 pm
If Dr. Ron Paul wins i will be the happiest man on earth.
I sadly dont think he will.
December 8th, 2007 at 10:54 pm
Doooonnnnndeeeerrrroooooo!!!!
RON PAUL is raising MMMMMMMMMMIiiilllllllliioonnssss. Mmmmmmiiiilllliioonnnnnssss and mmmmmmmiillllliioonnnnnsss of dolllllaaaarrrsss. Bwah ha ha ha ha. Now at last the time has come to unleash the the r3VOLution. Arise my fellow libertarian minions! Arise! No longer must we hide our true selves as we walk among the people. Show yourselves, stand up and be counted! For now at last our time has come, and we shall rule the earth!!
And what is the first thing we shall do once we seize the reigns of power? I will tell you. We will give Dondero a wedgie.
December 9th, 2007 at 6:05 am
Why did I resign? War in Iraq, plain and simple.
Ron Paul was stauchly opposed to it. I was staunchly in favor of it.
One day we’re riding in a car to an event in Victoria two hours a way. Ron berates me the whole way down for 2 hours about my support for the War. I stay silent, except to mention to him halfway through the trip that we needed to stop for gas.
Anyway, so we get to the event at the Fed building in downtown Victoria. He jumps out of the car, and screams at me, while poking his finger in my chest, “I will have nobody working on my staff who does not agree with me 100% on my position on Iraq. Not even you Eric. You change your views NOW.”
I had never seen him look so violent before. Not even the time when I messed up by putting him a car in San Antonio with an elderly woman who almost got us into 3 carwrecks on the way to the airport. (Boy, was he pissed at me that time.)
No, this time he literally got physical with me, poking his finger very forcefully into my chest, and cussing at me. (Ron rarely cusses.)
Well, we didn’t talk for 6 months after that. Finally, Tom said I needed to resolve the situation, that not talking to Ron was not healthy for our “office environment.”
I had to make a choice. Should I hold onto my beliefs and resign, or do as the Doctor said, and adopt his views.
I chose to hold steady on my beliefs, that the War in Iraq, was fully justified and that Saddam Hussein needed to be removed from power.
I told Tom, I’d resign in two months. And wrote a letter to that effect.
If any of you would like to confirm this story, I would urge you to contact two people:
Here’s the number - 202-225-2831
Their names are:
US Congressman Ron Paul and US House of Representatives, Ron Paul office, Chief of Staff Thomas Lizardo.
Go ahead, give ‘em a call.
If you’re too much of a coward to confirm the story, than I would humbly ask you to shut-up on the internet about unsubstantiated rumors and hearsay.
Further, if you would like more details, I can give you specifics. Call me on my cell 832-896-9505.
December 9th, 2007 at 6:07 am
Hey Isillion, tell me, if my guys Rudy, Mitt or Fred win the nomination, does that mean I get to give you a wedgie?
Actually, being ex-Navy, I prefer the blanket party route. I’ll get a couple of my sailor buddies to join in.