Ron Paul Betting On New Hampshire, Nevada?
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, 3rd Party, Ron PaulOdds are that Iowa will go to Romney and Huckabee. Paul could pull off a 3rd place finish there, but even that is looking increasingly unlikely because Thompson and Giuliani will most likely grab the 3 and 4 spots. That puts Paul in 5th, the same place he was at in the straw poll.
That brings us to New Hampshire, the most libertarian state out there. Think Granite State Republicans could vote for Paul? I think so, and I’ve even read in a few posts here and there that Dems will be crossing the aisle to vote for Paul. Of course this will be spun as Paul’s support being all Democrats, but most should see through that, especially if he wins. You can’t win with Dems in a Republican primary.
In short, if Paul gets a 1st or strong 2nd in New Hampshire, his next best bet to win is definitely Nevada.
And speaking of the Silver State…
Asked why more of his rivals aren’t campaigning in Nevada, Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul grinned.“Maybe they don’t feel confident that their philosophy is attractive to the people of Nevada,” he said, a twinkle in his eye. “I’m very comfortable with the people of Nevada.”
Shortly after making that comment, the puckish Texas congressman strode onto a stage at UNLV to preach his message before a crowd of more than 1,000 people.
What do you think? Sound strategy? And if Nevada picks Paul, which state will it be after that? California?
Well, Paul might have some help because a supporter of his is putting up $85,000 of his own money to put a full page ad in USA Today, um, today…
Larry Lepard, a venture capitalist and Ron Paul supporter from Massachusetts, has shelled out about $85,000 of his own money to throw what he told U.S. News is a “small hard rock at a good target”: a full-page ad supporting Paul that will run in tomorrow’s edition of USA Today—the nation’s largest circulation daily newspaper—on the busiest travel day of the year.He noted that he bought a right-hand position in the newspaper’s front section.
“I’m trying to get maximum bang for the buck,” said Lepard, 50, a Republican who says his strong opposition to the Iraq war drove him to take out the ad. His firm, Equity Management Association, invests in emerging markets, he said, adding, “I’m good at spotting early trends.”
I’m continually amazed at how passionate his supporters are, even if they do tend to be, ahem, a bit “outspoken.”
You can view a version of the ad at RonPaulForums.com.
This entry was posted on Wednesday, November 21st, 2007 and is filed under 2008 Election, 3rd Party, Ron Paul. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
November 21st, 2007 at 11:49 am
Everyone go home and tell your parents about Ron Paul. And if you have a crazy uncle who yammers on about the gold standard, yell the rest of your family to listen to him for once.
November 21st, 2007 at 11:52 am
Ron Paul will take NH and finish in the top 3 in Iowa.
Ron Paul is not a “dark horse” or a “long shot”. He has clearly surpassed John McCain and is now a “top tier” candidate. He dominates in Straw Polls, Debate Polls, Fund Raising, Web Traffic and Grass Roots Networking. I have gathered the evidence to support this statement and created a website.
Please visit http://www.thecaseforronpaul.com and judge for yourself.
November 21st, 2007 at 11:54 am
I think Howard Dean will win Iowa. That’s what the polls say. Anyone who thinks different is a freaking idiot.
November 21st, 2007 at 12:11 pm
Great Blog my friend. Even the last part is kind. I hope you will cross over to the “light” side and embrace the movement.
Yes we are passionate. I just donated $200 to the campaign and will give another one on “Tea Party day” Dec. 16 (teaparty07.com for more info).
By the way, I have never given any money to a campaign in my life and I am 24 years old. I probably gave around $1000 by now. I never participated in the primaries either.
November 21st, 2007 at 12:24 pm
I think you might be wrong with regard to Iowa. Paul polls at 6 % currently, Giuliani is at 11%, the error is 4% so it is close to within error. Further, Paul is under polling, because so many of his supporters are first time voters in a caucus. If the students come out, and/or the Giuliani and fred supporters stay home (may be bad weather, or maybe they don’t care that much) Paul gets a strong 3rd.
Remember in Iowa, 1000 voters is a whole percentage point.
November 21st, 2007 at 12:34 pm
Vicky, no offense but you’re an idiot. Howard Dean is a DEMOCRAT. Ron Paul is a REPUBLICAN. These are the PRIMARIES. Thus, one person from each side wins in Iowa. On top of which he’s NOT EVEN RUNNING.
November 21st, 2007 at 12:36 pm
Good writing. I agree with RPs chances in these states. He can win NH and NV that will be the foot hold he needs. His fundraising is strong in Western States too. Once the Republicans realize that they do not have to be hawks and ask them self who is going to be best to debate the war and healthcare with Hillary they will see that DOCTOR Ron Paul will unite America for freedom and reverse the trend of dependance and surrender to big government. The OLD RIGHT is back and we want our country back.
November 21st, 2007 at 12:44 pm
Can’t win with Democrats in a Republican Primary?
In the last two Presidential Elections I voted “Straight Democrat”. Yes, Gore and Kerry. Does that make me a Democrat? Some might think so.
I’m now registered Republican. I plan on voting in my state primary and I’m organizing a county group to meet after polling to vote delegates.
Can’t win with Democrats in a Republican Primary?
I beg to differ.
Parties are dead in politics. The sooner the main-stream realizes this, the soon our country can get back on track. Mr. Paul, though a hard-line conservative, sees through the political divide and speaks to Americans … not Democrats of Republicans.
You may remain divded in your political views, yet America will unite to save this sinking ship. Too long have we sat back and let Corporate America sail us into their perfect storm or international war. We’re taking it back – call it mutiny, if you must – and sailing for safer waters.
November 21st, 2007 at 12:46 pm
By the time the vote rolls around RP will probably be a lot higher than he is now.
just think how much he’s jumped in the last week?
Get ready.
November 21st, 2007 at 12:47 pm
New numbers are showing strong support for Ron Paul in SC (8%), and the official campaign hasn’t done diddly there yet. It’s also said that the there’s a good chance the governor could officially endorse Paul. The governor, Sanford, has a very high approval rating at present.
November 21st, 2007 at 12:52 pm
Omg. I didn’t know he shelled out that much. Jesus. That’s dedication.
November 21st, 2007 at 1:23 pm
As the previous poster also mentioned… we’re at 8% in South Carolina, a state with open primaries. I don’t think Paul will win SC, but it’ll definately be grounds for a good showing to prove NH not to be a fluke.
November 21st, 2007 at 1:58 pm
Even Jon Cox was polling high in Iowa early on. The polls mean nothing the way they are done. Just look at Ron winning the Zogby blind poll of 1009 people. That was probably, to date, the most honest poll I have seen him included in. The full page ad today is going to be a real eye opener for a lot of Americans into the RP phenom. BTW, thanks for site and the articles. Long time lurker, first time poster, age old thinker, and short length commenter.
Cheers,
Aaron
November 21st, 2007 at 3:16 pm
I Vote For Honesty And Integrity In A President.
I Vote For Ron Paul.
The Political Wind Is Shifting.
November 21st, 2007 at 7:34 pm
Dr.Ron Paul is courageous, intelligent, consistent, and honest. He is a light in a dark well of lies. He speaks true. But as Goethe says “Truth is a torch but a tremendous one. That is why we hurry past it shielding our eyes, indeed for fear of being burned.”
November 21st, 2007 at 10:38 pm
I have been watching and commenting on this blog for awhile now. Interesting but Justin Garden has always been fairly negative about Ron Paul and his campaign. Just look through the history and you can see for yourself – Ron Paul would get now where, not out of the 1% – he should quit, he won’t get any support, or money. I remember when the money bomb was going off – Justin said Paul would be lucky to break 3 million, and he would never get 12 million for the quarter – pipe dream he said – as Ron Paul is about to break 9 million in money and hit 10% by the old fashioned land line polls nationwide.
The big MOMENTUM is here and it can’t be stopped – Ron Paul is the right man at the right time – all the planets are aligned.
Justin the reason Ron Paul is going to win is the American people are sick and tired of corruption and lies so much that – yes they are going to elect an honest candidate for once – no matter what.
November 22nd, 2007 at 12:28 am
I thought it was quite interesting to hear the I.N.N. network reporting on Ron Paul. The I.N.N. network is about as liberal as it gets and the report I was watching last night said that the polls show Ron Paul as the strongest candidate to run against Hilliary Clinton.
The news segment said that Ron Paul is polling higher than all the Republican candidates but you won’t hear this from the corporate news outlets, they mention Ron Paul as garnering an excited base but they always preface it with “but it’s only a minority fringe group that he appeals to.”
So why is it an ultra-liberal news network can give the true poll statistics but the major corporate news outlets bury Ron Paul under other news or other candidates or dismiss Ron Paul as a cook with popular ideas but ultimately unrealistic?
If the I.N.N. news is correct why is there conflicting reports coming from the major news networks?
November 22nd, 2007 at 12:32 am
I meant kook, not cook, sorry.
November 22nd, 2007 at 6:39 am
What do you mean by “outspoken”!!!!!!!!!!’
JUST
KIDDING
He’s like a grandfather to us. People take it personally. The media has been unfair for the most part. It drives us nuts.
November 22nd, 2007 at 10:42 am
“Vicky, no offense but you’re an idiot. Howard Dean is a DEMOCRAT. Ron Paul is a REPUBLICAN. These are the PRIMARIES. Thus, one person from each side wins in Iowa. On top of which he’s NOT EVEN RUNNING.”
She was being sarcastic you idjit. In 2004 John Kerry was only polling at 4 percent and Howard Dean was at 27 percent before the Iowa caucuses, not primaries like you said, and look at who won it. Polls are meaningless. If a guy with 4 percent can go on and win it then Ron Paul has a chance to pull off an upset.
November 22nd, 2007 at 9:46 pm
Ron Paul is not writing-off Iowa. The campaign has running TV and radio ads there, they’ve just bought 22 billboards in the state, they’re doing canvass operations in several major Iowa cities over the first few weeks of December. If a majority of Republicans in Iowa want the U.S. to withdrawl from Iraq, Ron Paul has every chance of finishing in the top three in Iowa. McCain’s camapaign in the state has basically shut down and while Thompson and Guliani are doing a lot of paid media in the state, they don’t have much for ground operations. If RP can get his supporters to the caucauses on Jan. 3, he can finish in the top three 3. And then how will NH and Nevada and even Michigan and South Carolina look if he gets such a result?
November 23rd, 2007 at 6:24 am
I’m continually amazed at how passionate his supporters are, even if they do tend to be, ahem, a bit “outspoken.â€
Yes, Justin. Maybe this nation requires sheep to function and they need to hammer the nails that stick out. What are your predictions as to the value of a dollar come “election” season? The support isn’t going away, win or lose…and din will only get louder – this is a movement that DC can’t ignore. Relentless, 74,109 Meetup members since is morning.