Iowa Prediction: Edwards 1st, Obama 2nd, Hillary 3rd

By Justin Gardner | Related entries in Barack, Democrats, Edwards, Hillary, Iowa

So I will probably be dead wrong about all of this, but on the off chance I’m right I will look like a damn genius. :-)

Edwards in 1st
He has been coming on very strong recently, mostly because of Hillary and Obama fatigue. I think the second choice will matter tomorrow, and Edwards is that guy for a wide majority of caucus goers, so he’ll be gathering up support from the second tier candidates who can’t pass that 15% threshold. Joe Trippi vindicates himself from 2004, but…see more below.

Obama in 2nd
Obama’s change message consistently polls the strongest among caucus goers, and it’ll help him pull out a 2nd place finish, which is a good spot for him. Reason being is that a lot of independents did turn out and this will buoy his argument that he’s the most electable Dem in the field. Also, it’s very important for Barack that Hillary places 3rd because she was expected to sweep through the country and this makes her strategy and her candidacy look very weak.

Hillary in 3rd
Bill skipped Iowa in ’92 and that really hurt Hill’s chances to win this one because she couldn’t leverage his wisdom and momentum. Still, she has the money to survive and it’s going to be a hell of a fight between her and Obama from here on out.

Conclusions
Iowa doesn’t prove to be the springboard Edwards had hoped for and he consistently finishes 3rd behind the Obama and Hillary camps. Once again there will be talk about the state’s arcane caucus rules and switching to some other locale for the first-in-the-nation contest. But nothing will ultimately happen and we’ll be having the same conversation 4 or 8 years from now.


This entry was posted on Wednesday, January 2nd, 2008 and is filed under Barack, Democrats, Edwards, Hillary, Iowa. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

11 Responses to “Iowa Prediction: Edwards 1st, Obama 2nd, Hillary 3rd”

  1. Elyas Says:

    It’s a tough call to make, but I think you may be right. If Hillary finishes third, I think she loses NH and faces an uphill battle the rest of the way. As long as Obama doesn’t come in behind Hillary, it’s good news for his campaign.

  2. realist Says:

    Obama, Hillary, Eddie. I’m the genius here.

  3. nadeem Says:

    IOWA REPUBLICAN MAYOR TO CAUCUS FOR OBAMA – This story is not getting much press from the MSM, but it is why Obama will do very well. He is getting a lot of independents and Republicans to vote for him. This bodes well for Obama in a general election.

    EXCLUSIVE! Mayor Rickard to vote for Obama
    BY GERSH KUNTZMAN

    BROOKLYN, IOWA — The longtime Republican mayor of this tiny heartland town will stun his neighbors — and send shockwaves that will reach his countrymen in the real Brooklyn — when he breaks ranks with the GOP to vote for Sen. Barack Obama at the Iowa caucuses this Thursday night.
    “After eight years of this administration, I’ve had it,” Mayor Loren Rickard told The Brooklyn Paper, which sent a reporter to Brooklyn, Iowa — population 1,200 — for the “first-in-the-nation” caucus.

    “We’ve got a currency that’s practically worthless and a war without end,” he added. “I thought they were crazy to start the war with Iraq — and crazier that they didn’t even seem to have a plan to fight it.”

    And Rickard said he’s not only dissatisfied with the president, but with his would-be successors.

    “I’ve been a moderate Republican all my life and I simply don’t recognize these people [the GOP field],” he said. “Meanwhile, the Democrats have six solid candidates — though I think [Dennis] Kucinich is a bit out there.”

    Rickard singled out Joe Biden and Obama for praise — but said he wouldn’t back Biden because “he can’t win.”

    Few in the farming town in eastern Iowa know that their third-term Republican mayor will side with the Democrats on Thursday. And it might not have happened were it not for the efforts of Obama supporter, Bev Rens.

    “I held a house party for Obama and [the mayor] came with his son, Joel,” said Rens, the Poweshiek County Democratic Party co-chair. “He listened to what I had to say and he pledged to vote for Obama that night. It sent a shiver through me!”

    Rens said she also scored the mayor’s son, who was originally backing New York Sen. Hillary Clinton.

    The Republican crossovers were no surprise to Brooklyn (Iowa) Chronicle Editor Sky Eilers.

    “There are many Republicans in Iowa who feel that their party is in trouble in November, but they also don’t want to see Hillary be president, so they’re switching parties to back other Democrats,” said Eilers. “Hillary has had the biggest machine behind her here. Some people feel she’s buying her way through the process while Obama is appealing to the grassroots, which is what you have here in Brooklyn.”

    Eilers didn’t think Rickard’s betrayal of party would send a shockwave through the town.

    “Shockwave? In Brooklyn [Iowa]? I don’t think so,” Eilers said.

    But he did think many eyes would be following Rickard as he entered the Democratic, rather than Republican, caucus.

    “He is very well respected here, so people will certainly talk about it,” he said.

    Under Iowa election law, registered voters can switch their party affiliation on caucus night, which Rickard said he would do by signing in as a Democrat at Thursday’s gathering at the Brooklyn-Guernsey-Malcolm elementary school.

    Despite the excitement over the presidential election, the caucus process in Brooklyn is subdued, Rens said. In some years, only a handful of Democrats and Republicans have gathered, she said.

    “I started in 1988 and was caucusing for Jesse Jackson,” she said. “There was six or seven people there, total.”

    But this year, turnout is expected to be high at both party caucuses. The Republicans will gather at 6:30 pm and begin with a straw poll of all voters in attendance, while Democrats start a half-hour later — and dig in for an arduous process.

    First, supporters of each candidate get to make a presentation, hoping to sway the undecided. Then, a vote is taken. Candidates who receive 15 percent or more are considered “viable,” and move forward to a second round of voting. Supporters of “non-viable” candidates can shift their allegiance to one of the viable candidates or form alliances with supporters of other “non-viable” candidates before the second round.

  4. MB Says:

    It’s sad, but I’ve been saying for months that when it’s all said and done voters will choose the white man.

  5. Tony Lambiris Says:

    I have a strong feeling Obama will take Iowa, and after Kucinich’s endorsement if he happens to not qualify, I hope he does. I could live just fine without a Bush/Clinton/Bush/Clinton legacy, and Edwards just doesn’t seem to have his priorities in-line enough to really stand for something.

  6. Oscar Says:

    John Edwards is The Man!

    He will win Iowa, and HE WILL get the bump he needs in New Hampshire.

  7. BenG Says:

    Mr. G; I started believing in Edwards about a month ago. Ya know who gave me the clue? Clinton! Not Hilary, but Pres. Clinton; it was from his interview on Charlie Rose. It was in reply to a question about how he thought Hilary was doing in Iowa, considering she saw such a big lead dwindle to a dead heat. He said John Edwards is the one to beat b/c he has had a presence there since the last election. He’s been in every county and people in the smallest towns know him well. His point was he’s happy that his wife had kept it so close and she never thought the nomination was ‘a slam dunk’.
    It’s a toss up to me, but I think Edwards would do the best in the general electiion b/c he’s from the South, he does well in head to head debate as witnessed in the past election, and his message rings true- too much big corporate money influencing our politics. Let the other guys drag each other thru the mud and let that $500 haircut shine through! Works for me.

  8. PoliGazette » Results in Iowa Says:

    [...] Thompson and then Paul in Iowa. The Political Insider says Edwards, Obama, Clinton, Justin Gardner believes that Obama will win it for the Democrats, followed by Edwards and [...]

  9. Third Rail Says:

    Check out this article, it outlines a strategy on how the Edwards campaign could defeat Hillary Clinton. Check it out at http://thirdrailradio.blogspot.com/

  10. Predictions For Iowa | Anne Arundel Maryland Politics - aapolitics.us Says:

    [...] The Corner "Iowa Prediction: Edwards 1st, Obama 2nd, Hillary 3rd." — Justin Gardner at Donklephant "What the hey…with polls showing both parties completely up for grabs in Iowa, I’ll put [...]

  11. Remembering Alex OkrentPolitical News and Opinion from a Multicultural Point of View | Political News and Opinion from a Multicultural Point of View Says:

    [...] read, “Blacks split between Clinton, Obama.” In December, a number of Daily Kos members and several other politically savvy bloggers were predicting John Edwards would win the Iowa [...]

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