Polls Show Obama Closing On Hillary

By Justin Gardner | Related entries in Barack, California, Connecticut, Democrats, Hillary, Massachusetts, New York

First the national poll from Gallup, which shows that last week Clinton was up by 16 points. Now the gap is 6 points.

Clinton 42% (-2)
Obama 36% (+3)
Edwards 12% (-2)

Then Kennedy’s endorsement has helped Obama in Massachusetts…

A Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the Massachusetts Democratic Presidential Primary finds Hillary Clinton attracting 43% of the vote while Barack Obama earns 37%. The survey was conducted on the night that Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy endorsed Obama but before John Edwards dropped out of the race.

Next, California shows signs of swinging Obama’s way…

The first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of California’s Democratic Presidential Primary shows Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama by five percentage points. It’s Clinton 38% Obama 33% and John Edwards at 12%. Dennis Kucinich picks up 3% of the vote and 13% are not sure.

Obama is also gaining in New York…

A new poll from Public Policy Polling (D) shows that Barack Obama might be sneaking up on Hillary Clinton in her home state of New York. Hillary leads with 45% of the vote, followed by Obama at 33% and John Edwards with 10%. In the demographic breakdown, Hillary leads 44%-29% among whites, Obama 44%-32% among African-Americans, and Hillary 64%-31% among Hispanics.

And he’s tied in Connecticut…

New York Senator Hillary Clinton attracts 40% of the vote and so does Illinois Senator Barack Obama. John Edwards is a very distant third at 11% while 3% say they’d vote for some other candidate and 6% are not sure.

Lastly, Rasmussen proposes an interesting scenario…

Today, Clinton is leading in most of the Super Tuesday states and is expected to walk away from February 5 with more delegates than anyone else. But, since the Democrats award delegates proportionally, Obama will pick up a decent share as well. John Edwards will get some too.

Add to that the fact that 20% of the delegates are so-called Super Delegates–Democratic National Committee members, members of Congress, Governors, and other party leaders formally unpledged to any candidate. Theoretically, any candidate who wins 30% of the delegates through Primaries and Caucuses could end up grabbing the nomination with the support of the Super Delegates. For Obama, that becomes even more possible if he were to ultimately win the endorsement of John Edwards.

It is now possible to imagine a scenario where Senator Clinton wins battle after battle, primary after primary, but loses the nomination. If the Democratic Party establishment becomes disenchanted with the tone of her campaign, anything could happen. Eventually, Obama would have to win some more primaries, but a few late victories could be enough to win the hearts and votes of the Super Delegates.

One thing’s for sure. There’s still a lot of time between now and Tuesday. Actually, almost an eternity in this wild primary season. Will Obama continue to close on Hillary?

More as it develops.


This entry was posted on Wednesday, January 30th, 2008 and is filed under Barack, California, Connecticut, Democrats, Hillary, Massachusetts, New York. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

8 Responses to “Polls Show Obama Closing On Hillary”

  1. Hillary For Real Change Says:

    At a time when our country is in peril there are far too many risks in electing a struggling newcomer like Obama. There is no time for learning the ropes or rookie mistakes. We need to elect someone who doesn’t have to learn on the job. We need a president who can immediately hit the ground running, and Hillary Clinton can do that. Hillary is ready for realistic change starting on day one, Hillary all the way.

  2. Paul Says:

    It is expected, that obama is reducing the margin and finally ll be the top

  3. Clare Says:

    I was always a Hillary supported but up until recently I started to do my research and now I’m just disgusted by how she will knowingly lie and distort the facts. I’m a 55 year old lady and I just can’t seem to vote for someone who can do something so low. Obama has won my vote by talking about what matters and I’m convinced he has the experience, drive and determination to fix this mess we are in. Clinton voted for the war, she even supported it vocally during the war. Some people claim she was passionate after 9/11 but come on, are we that stupid to think Iraq actually had something to do with 9/11. She even supported using nuclear weapons in the future. America doesn’t need someone like Hillary at this time.

  4. TerenceC Says:

    Hillary is terrible for America. 35 years of experience doing what – being a lawyer, being a governors wife, being the first lady. Has she ever done anything for someone just to do the right thing? Is there anyone who reads this blog that can honestly say Hillary hasn’t always been out for herself, those that could help her and herself alone – what has she ever done for anybody in an elected capacity. She’s a joke, and her husband is a disgraced, meglomaniac, impeached ex-president. Why would anyone think allowing those two back into the White House is a good idea? Let’s just throw away the Constitution and start over – who needs laws, positive public discourse, and new ideas? After all, it’s served us so well until now – pardon the sarcasm but I really just don’t understand the appeal with her.

  5. Jack in Atlanta Says:

    I would like to address the person called “hillary for change” who repeats her montra about ready to lead on day one. The question we need to ask is, “Where does she expect to lead us on day one?” I think that this question ignores the fact that she is not going to be president for one day. We need a president who can lead us not only on day one, (the day that whomever is elected, will get all the security briefings needed to lead) but through the next four years.

  6. Jack Wolpa Says:

    Senator Hillary Clinton does impress me very much as the candidate that
    I can not support. The debates need to bring out where & from whom Hillary has excepted money from. India, so that Microsoft can hire them instead of our kids who have spent thousands of dollars to get computer degrees, and than be told their opportunities were out sourced. How can she vote in favor of the bankruptcy bill, & say I hoped that it would not pass. That is an insult to my intelligence. On foreign affairs she once went to India to speak during her husbands second term in office. The speaker before her bombast-ed the Isreali’s & stated that they should all be sent to hell. Hillary was next to speak, and never said a word of repute on the matter. So, how can she be an advocate for negotiations & peace. The debates now need to venture in the direction of the economy. I feel that it would be of the up-most benefit to Obama & the people of the United
    States if Senator Obama would team up Al Gore, and find ways and means to add to our producing economy a green machine. I.E. hydrogen-fuel depots to replace gas stations. mandates to our big 3 automakers to make hybrid autos, a solar panel on every roof, and very importantly the rebuilding of our infrastructure that being bridges, roads, dams. Also, zones for emergency centers in safe areas that are well supplied and manned to deal with disasters. Putting people to work on these ideas would create tax revenue to balance the budget, & money that the the feds could spend for causes like universal medical coverage. Provided Senator Obama, speaks out on the issues that I have illustrated his mandate for change, & the hope he has for American could take place.

  7. Presidential Elections 2008 Says:

    It was yet one more point scored for Barack Obama—and one lost for Hillary Clinton. Democrat Barack Obama won the Wisconsin primary on Tuesday. With this win, Obama’s victories over the past three weeks now total nine. Clinton, meanwhile, has lost another chance to make up for her fast flagging fortune.

    While the white female votes were split almost equally between Obama and Clinton, the Illinois senator also scored well with the working class by winning a significant number if the blue collar votes. Speaking to a loudly cheering crowd in Houston, Obama said, “The change we seek is still months and miles away.”

  8. Tomas Says:

    How long does Hillary get to keep destroying the Dem. Party? It’s sadden how she’s trying, but she can’t make up her errors against Obama. She’s fighting as if her war against Barack is the last combat she must overcome and shift her disgraceful greedy self into the White House! Obama just needs some patience and courage to ignore her for few more days. He must believe, and trust the wise American whom can not turn away from their Best choice (B. Obama) for the realities of our dreams to prosper with respect and dignity in the eyes of the world.
    Obama, please keep speaking with wisdom my friend, don’t follow Hillary’ nonsense and decrease your great taste Good Americans has. See her as a child through her own weaknesses, and remind yourself of the last combat you have at head of you against JM of the Rep Party. Forgive Hillary, for the ways she’s hurting herself!

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