Rasmussen: Obama’s Lead Is Solid
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Democrats, Hillary, Polls
Whereas Gallup shows Hillary making up considerable ground post-Pennsylvania, Rasmussen shows Obama with a lead that just won’t budge…
In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, it’s Obama 48%, Clinton 42%.These results are based upon data from a four-day tracking poll. Today’s update is the first based entirely upon interviews conducted following the Pennsylvania Primary. On the morning of that Primary, Obama led Clinton 49% to 41%, essentially the same as today’s results.
For each of the past six daily updates, Obama’s support has stayed between 47% and 49% while Clinton’s support has ranged from 41% to 43%. Clinton’s support has been within three percentage points of 43% every single day since March 9. Obama’s support has been within three percentage points of 48% every day since April 2. During March, Obama’s support generally stayed within three percentage points of 46% support.
Question now: which one to trust?
This entry was posted on Sunday, April 27th, 2008 and is filed under 2008 Election, Barack, Democrats, Hillary, Polls. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
April 27th, 2008 at 4:43 pm
Let’s see: Rasmussen uses automated polling, which is supposed to yield more honest answers from responders. But Gallup is very highly-regarded. On the other hand, Rasmussen uses a 4-day average, so it should better smooth out momentary blips. On the other hand, I know that if a robot called me, I wouldn’t talk to it.
Oh well, I guess there’s no real reason to trust one over the other. Let’s just go back to our default of believing the one that gives the results we like. I know which one that is for me — at least right now. :)
April 28th, 2008 at 7:13 am
What does it matter? Unless Clinton wins the remaining states with 80/20 margins, she can’t catch up in delegates. Are the super delegates going to override the majority of the delgates? I think not. The race is already over, IMO. The rest is just a painful exercise in vanity and division.
April 28th, 2008 at 10:48 am
Well, it matters because the Clintons have been able to spin the media that this thing is still winnable, and for the simple fact alone that Obama has been focusing on more local message, he’s slipping in the national polls.
I agree that Obama has won already, but he needs to win the national dialogue too and these numbers are important to that story.
April 28th, 2008 at 12:02 pm
If this is a “national dialogue” it is like having a “dialogue” with my 6 yr. old daughter — she’ll keep talking, talking over you, saying the same thing, 5 different ways, in different tones and inflections, saying the same thing…over, over, and over…until your will is windled down to a nub and you happily submit just for some peace and quiet.
Maybe that is a winning strategy for the Dems…submission via annoyance and boredom.
April 28th, 2008 at 1:08 pm
I can see how Gallup’s poll makes sense - the return of wright, her “big” win in PA.
Rasmussen makes sense too - Obama’s supporters aren’t easily turned away, few undecided at this point…
I’d probably go with Rasmussen tinted with a little Gallup.