Obama Leads “Enthusiasm” Race
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Democrats, Independents, McCain, Polls, RepublicansRepublicans just don’t seem to be that excited about McCain. Maybe this is their response to a candidate who is widely seen as a more moderate conservative?
But the most revealing numbers in the survey were the ones measuring voter enthusiasm: 61% of Democrats said they were more enthusiastic than usual about voting in this year’s election, while just 35% of Republicans said that.Also in the poll, Obama’s fav/unfav is 64%-31%, while McCain’s is 59%-35%.
Still, will enthusiasm lead to votes in the swing states? That would be a much more telling metric.
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June 23rd, 2008 at 12:15 pm
Let’s refine that a bit–McCain isn’t a “more moderate conservative.” He’s not a “conservative” at all. You can’t call a stance on Iraq that doesn’t involve immediate withdrawal “conservative.” It’s just different. McCain is a true moderate, with all the good and bad that that brings with it. It’s naturally difficult for a moderate to generate enthusiasm, because their views are, well, moderate.
June 23rd, 2008 at 1:06 pm
1=1=1=1=1=1.
Well, let’s remember that each vote cast counts for one, regardless of the gusto (or lack) with which it is cast, So there’s that.
But we like to think that enthusiasm can be contagious, which it seems to be. Will such contagion cross state lines? IOW, will extra enthusiasm for Obama lead to more blue states? Or just blue states that are bluer than usual?
I don’t know. But I want to know. That’s why I keep saying that the place to look is at the trend in the set of polls withinr each given state, over time.
The trends could show spreading enthusiasm, if the idea that spreads is that Obama represents a fresh approach and real substantive change for middle class and blue-collar voters.
Or the trends could show spreading fear, if the idea that spreads is that Obama is too unproven and thus risky, not to mention just plain old too liberal.
Skeptics and cynics vote, and they vote in great numbers, although perhaps not with naive joy. Don’t forget that if skeptics and cynics sense that the next President could get elected on a wave of unfounded emotional enthusiasm, THAT phenomenon itself will motivate skeptical turnout. For a skeptic, cancelling out the vote of an unrealistic dreamer is strong motivation.
June 23rd, 2008 at 9:31 pm
There’s also the idea making the rounds that high gas prices will end up helping McCain with economy-minded voters, because he got ahead of Obama by coming out in favor of more domestic oil drilling. We can argue from now until November over whether that would actually work, but if most voters simply accept the conventional wisdom that more oil = cheaper gas, and McCain promises more oil while Obama doesn’t, well…