Real Clear Politics Shows McCain With Electoral Edge
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Electoral College, McCainSort of…
Here’s the count if there are no toss up states…
Here’s the count if toss up states are still considered toss up states…
Regardless, the race is tightening and it’s increasingly clear that late July and the whole of August has not been a good month for Obama in terms of momentum.
John Cole provides the appropriate snark and asks the question…is this bad news for McCain?
Then again, the question I have is that if Obama only leading nationally by a few points all summer was considered bad news for Obama, then clearly McCain taking the lead must be construed as bad news for John McCain. Or am I just not really understanding the premise that EVERYTHING IS GOOD NEWS FOR JOHN MCCAIN, and that when Obama was only leading by 5 it was bad news for Obama, and this is now CATASTROPHIC NEWS and the CAMPAIGN IS IN DISARRAY and they NEED A SHAKE-UP!
What do you think? Is Obama really sinking or is this just kind of the ebb and flow of a campaign cycle?
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August 20th, 2008 at 9:46 am
This next is going to be the best week of entertainment in years!
One cup of cream of Bill Clinton
Two tablespoons of extra-spicy Howard Dean
3 ounces of well-aged Jimmy Carter
One pound of Obama
Four ounces of shredded Hillary
Withhold one galllon of John Edwards scandal (nothing to see here)
Sprinkle liberally *heh* with angry moonbats
After mixing gingerly, pour into a Pepsi Center and watch!
Best! Convention! Ever!
August 20th, 2008 at 11:44 am
Basically its because Colorado hinges on a half a percent edge for McCain according to RCP, proabbly won’t last very long, especially after the convention in denver
August 20th, 2008 at 12:15 pm
Yes ebb and flow – but fundemental problems are surfacing for Obama. If the Democrats have to pressure Obama to be more specific, then what’s an independent to think? Yes it’s nice to be as popular as David Hasselhoff is in Germany, but we’ve got real problems. I think Obama is MORE like Bush in 2000 than McCain is. Like Bush in 2000, Obama is untested but popular. I think swing voters are leery of putting in another dynamic, untested guy, and the closer we get to November, the more leery they’re gonna get. And damn it all, Obama doesn’t seem to acknowledge he has this very fundemental flaw. Not acknowledging the problem, proves he has it.
August 20th, 2008 at 3:04 pm
But what about once the campaign really starts going and McCain’s close resemblance to Bush on a policy level becomes clear, mike? Let’s be honest that there is very little difference if you listen to the McCain of the last year and really carefully examine his history as a politician.
August 20th, 2008 at 7:22 pm
The direction of the campaign will depend at least as much upon the folks surrounding each candidate at the conventions (especially, obviously, their running mates), as upon the candidates themselves. A vote for McCain may be a vote for “Bush’s third term” as the Obama campaign has claimed, but one could just as easily say a vote for Obama is a vote for Bill Ayers, Rev. Wright et al. If the conventions are the last best chance for the candidates to leave a lasting impression on voters, their prime directive is to avoid people who will make that impression a negative one.
Which brings up another crowd that could easily influence the election, though probably not in the way they have in mind: leftist protestors, who are targeting both conventions but oddly seem to be more interested in disrupting the Dem convention than the GOP one. Even so, their worldview is obviously closer to Obama’s than McCain’s, meaning Obama also has to worry about the impression they will leave with voters.
August 20th, 2008 at 8:17 pm
Jim S., fair enough, but “I’m not like Bush and McCain kind of is” is not a solid, principled, pro-active position, which I contend Obama needs to quell uncertainties regarding his experience. I think it really is a referrendum on Obama; he goes up in the polls when he steps on the gas, and down when he lets off. He needs to transition into a post-Bush metality and really show us specifically what an Obama administration is all about. I think he has it in him; I’m just really, really ready to see it now.