Rasmussen: Obama, McCain Tied
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Barack, Biden, Democrats, Hillary, McCain, Polls, RepublicansWith leaners
Obama - 46%
McCain - 46%
Without leaners
Obama - 44%
McCain - 44%
Quite a swing today in McCain’s favor, as the Arizona senator makes up 3 and 4 points respectively in the numbers.
These numbers now line up almost exactly with Gallup’s and show that Biden may have actually hurt Obama. Why? Well, my guess is this is “Hillary didn’t get picked” backlash. And a certain number of those voters probably switched sides in the past couple days. Especially since you have such a significant 4 point swing in the “without leaners” numbers where Obama dropped 2 points and McCain gained 2.
The 5 day w/leaners:
08/26/2008: McCain - 46%, Obama - 46%
08/25/2008: McCain - 45%, Obama - 48%
08/24/2008: McCain - 45%, Obama - 48%
08/23/2008: McCain - 46%, Obama - 48%
08/22/2008: McCain - 46%, Obama - 47%
The 5 day w/o leaners:
08/26/2008: McCain - 44%, Obama - 44%
08/25/2008: McCain - 42%, Obama - 46%
08/24/2008: McCain - 43%, Obama - 46%
08/23/2008: McCain - 42%, Obama - 45%
08/22/2008: McCain - 43%, Obama - 45%
More tomorrow…
This entry was posted on Tuesday, August 26th, 2008 and is filed under 2008 Election, Barack, Biden, Democrats, Hillary, McCain, Polls, Republicans. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
August 26th, 2008 at 8:53 am
Yep, I agree. I think the disgruntled Hillary followers are abandoning in droves. If McCain picks up a female running mate it may be one of the biggest surprise upsets since “Dewey beats Truman”.
August 26th, 2008 at 8:59 am
I would have expected the Convention Bump to have started already.
August 26th, 2008 at 9:19 am
The vicious circle effect here is impressive. A poll or two show McCain gaining on Obama, and people start freaking out. They see that poll as evidence that Obama’s in trouble, decide maybe they don’t support him, and suddenly McCain gains even further.
I have a feeling we’ll see a handful of swings like this before the race is over.
August 26th, 2008 at 9:58 am
Nah, its too early for the convention bump to start, we won’t see that until the middle of the week at the earliest, most political events seem to have a two to three day lag before the general public notices
August 26th, 2008 at 11:15 am
The Hillary backlash may be one explanation. Another is that undecided Republicans are coming home.
August 26th, 2008 at 11:16 am
He’ll pick Fiorina, is that such a mystery?
August 26th, 2008 at 11:22 am
I was afraid choosing Biden would have such an effect with female voters. Justin Gardner made an entry suggesting that if Obama doesn’t choose Hillary for his veep that he declare his running mate earlier to get it over with, and that’s looking like it was the smarter play at this point. Now there’s renewed resentment from the Hillary supporters (with some help from Republicans and a willing media) over the alleged “snub” going into the convention. Lousy, lousy timing…
August 26th, 2008 at 12:04 pm
Also - Hillary is playing a tough game. If there is one iota of hesitation in her endorsement tonight, and Obama loses, she’ll absolutely take the blame for his numbers going down, as well she should. Who doesn’t think that she really wants him to lose? No one. She damn well better act her ass off tonight.
This could wind up being another Democratic implosion; and as a Democrat, I’ve got to tell the Hillary backers that the pettiness is disgusting. We could actually give this election to a party who just produced the worst Presidency in history. You really want to get Roe v. Wade overturned for the satisfaction of seeing Obama go down? Really?? Does anyone remember in 2000 when the debate was whether Gore should continue the fight (for Florida) or give in “for the good of the country” and many people said, “Well, we can always come back in 04.” No we couldn’t. And look what happened in those 4 years, which turned into 8 years? In hindsight, don’t you wish we could go back and fight like hell to keep the Bushie Repubs from stealing the Presidency like they did, and save 4000 American lives and the reputation of our country? And now the Clinton loyalists are going to hand it back to those same people. Sorry for the rant, but damn, that’s the very definition of cutting your nose to spite your face. Remember folks, it’s not just your nose you’re cutting …
August 26th, 2008 at 1:39 pm
Back and blogging….
1 - According to both the right and left McCain bested Obama in the Rick Warren Saddleback Forum.
2 - McCain has narrowed the gap and has tied Obama in national polls.
3 - The left was shocked! shocked! to learn that McCain is rich, and does not kno…