McCain’s Convention Bounce Or Bust?

By Justin Gardner | Related entries in Conventions, McCain, Palin, Polls

We won’t know the full extent of McCain’s bounce until Monday, but Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight had this to say yesterday…

From what best I can tell (and this is not an exact science) the one-night results from yesterday’s tracking polls showed something like a 1-2 point Obama lead. If — and this is a big if — that is the extent of the GOP bounce, this is a somewhat underwhelming result for them.

Last night and tonight should be among the best individual nights of polling that the Republicans see all year. If the best they can do is close the race to a tie, or an Obama +1 on those nights, they are not going to win the race based on inertia alone.

Gallup and Rasmussen show some tightening today, but McCain is having trouble cracking much higher than 45% in either poll. Meanwhile, Obama hit 51% in the middle of his bounce last week.

And yes, it was widely reported by the media that Palin’s speech was a hit, but is that really how it played across the country?

More as it develops…


This entry was posted on Saturday, September 6th, 2008 and is filed under Conventions, McCain, Palin, Polls. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

11 Responses to “McCain’s Convention Bounce Or Bust?”

  1. mike mcEachran Says:

    Here’s why they’re keeping her under wraps:

    http://www.laprogressive.com/2008/09/05/alaskans-speak-in-a-frightened-whisper-palin-is-%E2%80%9Cracist-sexist-vindictive-and-mean%E2%80%9D/

  2. bubbles Says:

    Mike McEachran:

    Um, I’m not sure how much I should trust a newspaper called “Dick and Sharon’s LA Progressive.”

  3. Casey Says:

    Mike McEachran: Why don’t you read Obama Nation or Fleeced? They’ll offer you just as unbiased an opinion as the piece of trash you recommend. We have enough creeps in this election without you weighing in with them.

  4. mike mcEachran Says:

    Fair enough, but the rumors are consistent with what (little) we know about her, and the obvious attempts by the campaign to limit access to information. Say what you will about the source, but there seems to be some fire under all this smoke.

  5. mw Says:

    “Say what you will about the source, but there seems to be some fire under all this smoke.” – MM

    Interesting.

    This exact quote was used as justification by those on the left who chose to spread the baseless smear that Palin was never pregnant and her last child was really her grandaughter.

    This exact quote was used as justification by those on the right who chose to spread the baseless smear that Obama was really a secret muslim.

    “But being openly racist is only the tip of the Palin iceberg. According to Alaskans interviewed for this article, she is also vindictive and mean. We’re talking Rove mean and Nixon vindictive. No wonder the vast sea of white, cheering faces at the Republican Convention went wild for Sarah: They adore the type, it’s in their genetic code…. Why do I know they’re true? Because everyone who isn’t aboriginal or Indian in Alaska talks that way.” “Sambo beat the bitch” may be everyday language up in the bush. Whether it – and the outlook, politics and worldview Palin reflects when she says such things in public – should be part of a presidential campaign is another thing altogether. The comment says as much about McCain as it does about Palin, and it says a lot of things about Americans who overlook such statements (as well as her record) and vote anyway for McCain.”

    Here is the funny part. The people who promote fact free unsupported baseless crap like this, don’t even seem to have slightest understanding of how it is read and received by anyone not in the echo chamber with them. Read that excerpt and last concluding paragraph from the article again.

    This is what it says in that paragraph and the article:

    “Every one in Alaska is a racist. There are just a bunch of small town small minded rubes in Alaska. Strong professional women are really vindictive and mean. All Republicans are racist because it is in their genetic code. Any American who votes for John McCain is stupid.”

    Yeah, that is going work well. Because “If you don’t think and vote like me you are a stupid, racist hick.” is always a winning argument.

    Hey – Mike please make sure you get this fact free hatchet job spread to as many independent and moderate sites as you can. I can’t think of anything that will stir up a bigger backlash and more votes for McCain/Palin.

  6. patrikios Says:

    I used to work for a woman from Alaska, and she is a liberal Democrat. She is not an Alaska Native (like Sarah Palin’s husband) either.
    The clowns who are spreading this rumor are bashing Alaska worse than the Atwater-Rove GOP bashed Massachusetts and California. Change “Republicans” to “‘Democrats” in here and it sounds like something from Ann Coulter or Free Republic.
    This crap is the kind of partisan hackery that turns independent voters off. Independent voters are the reason that McCain and Obama are the nominees- people saw them, rightly or not, as a break from the polarization, shrill partisan rhetoric, and misleading negative campaigns of the last 8 years.
    To Dick and Sharon, if you think you are helping Obama, you are wrong.
    You are helping John McCain- the guy whose campaign manager doesn’t want the campaign to be about the issues.

  7. James Says:

    I think you are off a bit. Zogby has McCalin/Palin up 4, yesterday. Zogby also has half the undecideds moving to McCain, accounting for that 4 point lead.

    The Ticket Horserace
    9-5/6
    8-29/30

    McCain-Palin
    49.7%
    47.1%

    Obama-Biden
    45.9%
    44.6%

    Others/Not sure
    4.4%
    8.3%

  8. James Says:

    On the “sambo” comment. It’s all garbage. Just like the baby boy being Sarah’s daughter’s. Once again dialykook posted the slander… let it run for a day, then magically it was removed.

    http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/6/12536/80712/795/589075

    http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/6/1825/85863/464/589390

    http://digg.com/political_opinion/Daily_Kos_So_Sambo_Beat_The_Bitch_Sarah_Palin_RACIST

  9. Rob Says:

    James: Zogby has never been right.

  10. mike mcEachran Says:

    I stand rightfully admonished.

  11. Charlie Shirtz Says:

    As an Obama supporter I just want to say that many of us don’t like the yellow journalism either. Each candidate has had some horrible things said about them… and while I don’t think Obama or McCain are engineering any of it directly, neither party stands blameless. I hope Independent voters can step up and call for a higher level of discourse, because I for one am sick of this red state, blue state crap.

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