A Surprise In Louisiana?

By Doug Mataconis | Related entries in Barack, McCain

A new statewide poll in Louisiana suggests that John McCain may have some trouble brewing in the bayou:

NEW ORLEANS – An exclusive new WWL-TV statewide poll shows the contest for president may be closer than many had predicted among Louisiana voters.

In the telephone survey of 500 registered voters, conducted by pollster Ed Renwick, Republican Senator John McCain earns 43 percent of the vote, while Democrat Senator Barack Obama receives 40 percent.  Renwick said that amounts to a statistical tie, since the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 points.

“It’s closer than I thought it would be,” said Renwick, adding that the higher the turnout, the worse it might be for McCain.

“That’s because they’ll probably be people who don’t usually vote, who don’t vote often, or weren’t registered to vote until recently.  Those people would not be heavy McCain voters.  They would be Obama voters.”

McCain gets most of the white vote, 61 percent to Obama’s 21 percent, but Obama just about owns the African-American vote, registering 83 percent to 3 percent for McCain in the poll, conducted for WWL-TV and a consortium of Louisiana television stations.

The most recent polls of Louisiana prior to this had shown McCain with a double-digit lead over Obama, so this poll comes as quite a shock.

However, this may be yet another indication that heavy African-American turnout could push some traditionally Republican states in the Deep South into Obama’s corner.


This entry was posted on Thursday, October 30th, 2008 and is filed under Barack, McCain. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

5 Responses to “A Surprise In Louisiana?”

  1. Gaucho Politico Says:

    No. That poll has 17% undecided with a week to go in the election. that means they failed to push leaners or the sampling is messed up. I also doubt that obama is getting 80% of the aa vote, that should be closer to 90. Not to mention this is a poll of registered and not likely voters. all of that makes it highly suspect. the site’s contributors seems to have a habit of looking at poll by poll narratives. really nobody should be taking polls on an individual basis as gospel.

  2. Jeremy from Oregon Says:

    Notice the faux-gray hair job? You can’t even trust the appearance of an American politician let alone what comes out of their mouths.

    You see how smart the American electorate is when the candidates have to paint their hair in order to give the appearance of age and “wisdom.”

    Obama’s appearance on the John Daily show was not honest. He looked like he had aged 100 years. I was quite disappointed.

  3. tom Says:

    Jeremy, it’s not surprising for a 47 year old man to have gray hair, I’m surprised Obama has as little gray hair as he does. I’m 38 and I have more gray hair than that AND I’m bald!

    Focus on the issues, that’s what’s important this election, not how someone looks.

  4. Anon Says:

    @Jeremy from Oregon

    When you are almost 50 and flying around/traveling almost constantly, let alone dealing with an inordinate amount of stress, you will likely grow more than just a few gray hairs.

  5. Frank Stallone Says:

    “Faux-grey”? Look at the before-and-after pics of both Clinton and W. Politics at that level is incredibly stressful.

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