Comments on: McCain’s Hopes Hinge on Pennsylvania

By: Chronicle Blogs – Obama wins Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, ABC projects

Chronicle Blogs – Obama wins Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, ABC projects — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 03:00:42 +0000

[...] The first major projections tonight come from ABC News. They are pencilling in victories for Obama in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania—a state which McCain was said to have been targetting heavily. [...]

By: Obama wins Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, ABC projects

Obama wins Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, ABC projects — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 01:05:53 +0000

[...] The first major projections tonight come from ABC News. They are pencilling in victories for Obama in New Hampshire and Pennsylvaniaâ€”a state which McCain was said to have been targetting heavily. [...]

By: Jive Turkey

Jive Turkey — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 16:53:17 +0000

Keep dreaming Susan it’ll never happen. The Electoral College is here to stay. It makes them thar swing states relevant. PA could go for McCain! Damn that Electoral College! Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha! We bitter gun totin bible thumpers love the Electoral College.

By: Elections: The Final Day « Capitalist View

Elections: The Final Day « Capitalist View — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 08:32:55 +0000

[...] McCainâ€™s Hopes Hinge On Pennsylvania? [...]

By: Donklephant » Blog Archive » Prognostications

Donklephant » Blog Archive » Prognostications — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 04:38:44 +0000

[...] Instead I will base my predictions strictly on what MW Hopesâ„¢ will happen. First, MW Hopesâ„¢ the ASC longshot scenario plays out, McCain wins, and we have divided government for the next four [...]

By: Joshua

Joshua — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 02:47:46 +0000

Donâ€™t underestimate the power of the massive GOP voting machine. What about those who didnâ€™t respond to the polls?

Indeed, I’ve been reading elsewhere that some recent polls have been getting as high as 80% refusal rates. At that rate of non-response the polls become, for all intents and purposes self-selecting-respondent polls, which aside from the medium used are no different from the polls you see all the time “for entertainment purposes only” on blogs and other Web sites.

Weâ€™ve seen the polls be very wrong before: look at the discrepancies between the exit polling and the actual results in 2004.

Don’t forget 2000 either. Going into Election Day the polls suggested Bush would win both the popular and electoral votes with room to spare. We all know how that turned out…

By: leapsecond

leapsecond — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 00:56:39 +0000

Don’t underestimate the power of the massive GOP voting machine. What about those who didn’t respond to the polls?

We’ve seen the polls be very wrong before: look at the discrepancies between the exit polling and the actual results in 2004.

By: Avinash_Tyagi

Avinash_Tyagi — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 00:25:12 +0000

Even with Pennsylvania, he would still have to win almost every tossup state, and with Obama’s national poll leads now at around 7 point lead, I just don’t see McCain losing the popular vote by that much and still winning the Electoral vote, in fact at a 7% Pop vote victory, Obama shouldn’t have any trouble winning the election.

McCain’s only hope is that over a hundred polls have been horribly wrong, the chances of that are very small indeed

By: susan

susan — Mon, 03 Nov 2008 23:08:40 +0000

The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do state-by-state, but that we shouldn’t have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote — that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided “battleground” states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.

Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.

The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes– 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.

See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com