How Official Economic Numbers Have Deceived Us
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in Economy, HistoryFollowing up on my post earlier today about the difference between unemployment and underemployment, in May of this year Harper’s Kevin Phillips wrote about how we’ve been lied to about the health of our economy in the form of misleading and dishonest numbers…
If Washington’s harping on weapons of mass destruction was essential to buoy public support for the invasion of Iraq, the use of deceptive statistics has played its own vital role in convincing many Americans that the U.S. economy is stronger, fairer, more productive, more dominant, and richer with opportunity than it actually is.The corruption has tainted the very measures that most shape public perception of the economy—the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI), which serves as the chief bellwether of inflation; the quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which tracks the U.S. economy’s overall growth; and the monthly unemployment figure, which for the general public is perhaps the most vivid indicator of economic health or infirmity. Not only do governments, businesses, and individuals use these yardsticks in their decision-making but minor revisions in the data can mean major changes in household circumstances—inflation measurements help determine interest rates, federal interest payments on the national debt, and cost-of-living increases for wages, pensions, and Social Security benefits. And, of course, our statistics have political consequences too. An administration is helped when it can mouth banalities about price levels being “anchored†as food and energy costs begin to soar.
The truth, though it would not exactly set Americans free, would at least open a window to wider economic and political understanding. Readers should ask themselves how much angrier the electorate might be if the media, over the past five years, had been citing 8 percent unemployment (instead of 5 percent), 5 percent inflation (instead of 2 percent), and average annual growth in the 1 percent range (instead of the 3–4 percent range). We might ponder as well who profits from a low-growth U.S. economy hidden under statistical camouflage. Might it be Washington politicos and affluent elites, anxious to mislead voters, coddle the financial markets, and tamp down expensive cost-of-living increases for wages and pensions?
What’s more, it looks like Bill Clinton had a hand in this as well since underemployment numbers were developed in 1994, but never publicly reported as a better indicator of the health of American employment.
Phillips addresses this…
Let me stipulate: the deception arose gradually, at no stage stemming from any concerted or cynical scheme. There was no grand conspiracy, just accumulating opportunisms. As we will see, the political blame for the slow, piecemeal distortion is bipartisan—both Democratic and Republican administrations had a hand in the abetting of political dishonesty, reckless debt, and a casino-like financial sector.
I wonder if Obama will start using these numbers instead of the old measures which appear to be virtually worthless as a realistic gauge of our economic health. We shall see…
In any event, definitely read the entire article.
(h/t: TPM)
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December 7th, 2008 at 12:20 pm
Of course U6 is the truly meaningful number if you want a real feel for the employment picture in the country. I was speaking to a conservative at work a couple of weeks back who didn’t even understand that the “official” unemployment number was a very limited picture and didn’t want to believe me even after I explained everything it left out. That kind of ignorance is one of the things that leads people to be so blase about recessions and other economic downturns so long as they aren’t among those who have lost their jobs. He also had no idea what it cost to buy your own health insurance nowadays or how much private insurers spent on administrative overhead versus government programs.
December 7th, 2008 at 11:59 pm
TAKE BACK CONTROL OF MONEY
The American economy rests on the back of the American worker and consumer. Taxpayers own the government and currency is only a tool enabling commerce.
Take charge of it. Get it working for you, not against you.
http://pacificgatepost.blogspot.com/2008/12/revising-government-relationship-to.html
Once this is done, the other problems will resolve naturally, including home owners making their mortgage payments.