CBO Reports Stimulus Plan Will Work
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in Barack, Economy
“CBO anticipates that implementation of H.R. 1 would have a noticeable impact on economic growth and employment in the next few years.”
- From the real CBO report released last night
Specifically, they estimate that in the spending portion of the bill, $477 billion out of $604 billion would be disbursed either this fiscal year or in the next two fiscal years. That’s 79% of the total.I guess opinions can vary on this, but that strikes me as pretty good. What’s more, most of the spending that comes in FY2012 or later is either for projects that simply take more than two years to complete (highways, school repairs) or infrastructure improvements that have long-term paybacks (renewable energy programs). There are a few other items in the out years that are more arguable, but they add up to a pretty small portion of the bill.
Overall, then, it looks like the spending part of the bill is maybe 90% clean as short-term stimulus. And on the supply side, nearly 100% of the tax cuts are allocated during the next 18 months. Given the realities of the appropriations process, I’m not sure the White House could have done much better than this.
Oh, I’m sure we’ll hear plenty from Republican lawmakers about how the government could have done better than this, but it looks like the report validates the mix of government spending and tax cuts that the administration proposes.
And as for the longer term infrastructure spending, do you think it’s a good thing or a bad thing to have money pumping into this economy on a continuous basis for the next 4 years just in case the initial bump doesn’t have the desired effect? We need to practice some patience right now because a lack of it is what contributed to this collapse in the first place.
And now if Obama can just get the family planning money out of there…
This entry was posted on Tuesday, January 27th, 2009 and is filed under Barack, Economy. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
January 27th, 2009 at 11:04 am
And once again, I ask, where is this money coming from and has anyone given any thought to what a $ 2 trilling budget deficit really means ?
January 27th, 2009 at 11:15 am
I await the CBO’s analysis of when increased government spending on anything approaching this scale has worked. There are real case studies to which we can refer:
Hoover: Fail
FDR: Fail
Japan in 90s: Fail
Bush II: Fail
Furthermore, just because much of the money will be spent in the first couple of years doesn’t mean that money is being spent in something that even resembles how Keynesian stimulus is supposed to allegedly work.
Take the huge chunk of school spending, for example. Education spending has already been *skyrocketing* for the last decade. What stimulative effect has that had?
The problem here is this bill is packed full of expenses that may or may not make sense on their own merits, but have nothing to do with economic stimulus. The responsible thing to do is take out the allegedly stimulative parts of this bill, and vote on *that*.
January 27th, 2009 at 12:27 pm
Good God! A few weeks ago it was all Chicken Little and the sky was falling if something, ANYTHING, wasn’t done RIGHT NOW!!!!
Now we are suppose to practice patience with the effects of the stimulus bill, but not with its passage.
Okay…
January 27th, 2009 at 1:43 pm
Yea I agree with Snarkless…we’ve had 7 years of Chicken Little and the sky is falling mentality. Need to ratchet back on that rhetoric.
January 27th, 2009 at 9:12 pm
“FDR: Fail” discredits the post.
January 27th, 2009 at 10:27 pm
At Jim S. ” “FDR: Fail†discredits the post. ”
Not sure how that would discredit the post considering it is the truth. It is well known and widely acknowledged except in the deepest recesses of Liberal hell that FDR’s policies extended the depressionary period while preventing a normal economic recovery. We can thank Emperor Hirohito and some Japanese air units for lighting the fuse that finally brought us into a war economy and out of the depression.
Geeze, how long will the FDR myth linger?
January 28th, 2009 at 4:11 am
Where do you get your facts brian, Limbaugh? lol
*sigh* When can we kick Georgia out? its not worth the 5 intelligent people living there.
January 28th, 2009 at 7:33 am
Money spent on education has only gone up while associated with no child left behind, otherwise education spending has mostly just been cut, at least since 2000.
January 28th, 2009 at 8:44 am
It’s vote day and we’re on Stimulus watch at my site. It’s going to pass and Obama knows that although the Republicans are making noise today.
January 28th, 2009 at 9:43 am
The elephant in the room is that World War II got us out of the Depression, not FDR’s spending programs. It saddens me that not one is questioning the long-term impact of this amount of spending for government programs. Congress is made up primarily of lawyers who haven’t created/built/produced anything tangible. Assuming that they know how to revitalize an economy based on individual initiative and productivity is simply wrong-headed.
January 28th, 2009 at 10:51 am
I don’t know, Brian. How long will Republicans keep lying about FDR? Probably forever. Because what’s really well known outside of the readership of the WSJ op-ed pages and listeners to Limbaugh and his ilk is that everything you claimed is utter BS.
January 28th, 2009 at 11:28 am
And article from 2 UCLA economists titled – FDR’s policies prolonged Depression by 7 years – Not Limbaugh and not WSJ op-ed.
http://newsroom.ucla.edu/portal/ucla/FDR-s-Policies-Prolonged-Depression-5409.aspx
It seems to me that if we were really interested in finding solutions, instead of pushing agenda’s, we’d be willing to have theses conversions. But all I see is that any economic school of thought that isn’t Keynesian Theory is dismissed rather than discussed.
January 28th, 2009 at 2:34 pm
So says the sign on the wall:”Tired of the rhetoric, bomb-throwing and partisan hackery? Here we offer a respectful, honest forum for people who want to have a conversation about politics, the world and beyond.
All we ask is you keep your language clean and your arguments sharp.”
Nice Steeeve..I see your sharp argument is to suggest kicking Georgia out because there are only 5 sharp people left? Hey, I am impressed. Nice example of partisan hackery.
Question for you guys who love FDR. Do you love Bernie Madoff as much? People suggest Madoff implemented the largest ponzi scheme in the history of the world? That simply is not true, FDR signed into law the social security Act in 1935 and as with all good Ponzi schemes, those first in will do well but alas…as with all Ponzi scheme’s….last out get the shaft.
Yes, thanks FDR and every politicians who has failed to address the Ponzi nature of Scial Security and the like by adding additional entitlements onto it. My grand pa thanks you and my grandkids are slaves to a system that is bound for BK. There is a limit to every printing press and borrowers ability to pay it back.
Call us GA boys dumb if you wish but with your next comment, how about addressing the real issue at hand if you wish to blog with the adults please.
By the way, was there a memo sent out that I missed suggesting liberals assert that anyone not towing the line must only consume Limbaugh and the like? I am one of those strange ducks, I like to read form lots of sources and then think about things and draw conclusions. Seems like the pat retort from the left these days is “you just listen to Rush.”
Have a wonderful day or as we say in the south, “ya’ll come back now ya hear?”
January 28th, 2009 at 9:06 pm
I have a book about FDR sitting right next to me, I could go on all day telling you every reason he is one of our greatest presidents ever, but I tend to stay away from pointless arguements.
If you think you know better than all the historians who devote their lives to studying the past and consistently rank him in the top 3 (Lincoln is always first, then FDR or Washington). Then what would be the point in me arguing with you Im obviously not smarter than the almighty Brian.. Nobody is!! I dont have any history degrees, just a brain ;)
January 28th, 2009 at 9:22 pm
also, to “openminded”
I dont have any problem hearing about other ideas, I didnt have any problem with brians first post “FDR: fail” its true, The New Deal didnt end the depression, and caused lots of deficit spending. BUT if you ask anyone from that era they are going to tell you “His constant attempts gave us hope/confidence” the country was on the brink of falling apart and he held it together and gave people hope. The one thing nobody ever considers is that there may not have been a recovery at all, America isn’t invincible, its not completely ridiculous to believe we could have been left as a 3rd world country..
It wasnt until the second post when he started trashing FDR and making up “widely acknowledged” facts that I was annoyed
February 11th, 2009 at 7:48 pm
It’s also widely known that because of Hoovers INACTION/do nothing approach, catastrophically destroyed any attempt of stopping the situation.
It’s also said FDR should have pushed the envelope further. I’m sure your economist may have mentioned that in there study.