Only 5 Red States Left? Pfft…Keep Dreaming Dems

By Justin Gardner | Related entries in Barack, Polls

That was the buzz yesterday.

In fact, the numbers guy himself Nate Silver pointed to a Gallup post today that shows a surprising picture when looking at party ID.



That’s right Dems! Oklahoma, Louisiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas and South Carolina are turning blue!

Now, to be fair to Nate, he was skeptical, but didn’t say what I think is pretty obvious: this is nonsense.

Take a look at the % spread below for the states I listed above and how Dems actually lost support in Arkansas and Louisiana.

I’m not saying that Dems don’t have a shot at narrowing the gap in some of these locales in 2012, but to suggest that Oklahoma, which gave McCain 460,000 more votes in a total pool of 1.4 million votes, is somehow leaning Dem now?

No way, no how.

Moving on…


This entry was posted on Thursday, January 29th, 2009 and is filed under Barack, Polls. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

5 Responses to “Only 5 Red States Left? Pfft…Keep Dreaming Dems”

  1. bubbles Says:

    Um, you’re only looking at this in terms of presidential politics. Take out that equation, and there really are only 5 solidly Republican states left… meaning 5 states, where Republicans run things by wide margins.

  2. Ryan Says:

    That’s simply not true, Bubbles. I have the grave fortune of living in Georgia and while the Presidential election was within 6%, the State Legislature and Executive are filled top to bottom with Republicans. To say that GA is competitive is to lie to oneself through Gallup.

  3. Jimmy the Dhimmi Says:

    “In 2004, George W. Bush continued dividing America with his divisive policies by divisively winning the election with 50.7 per cent of the vote. In 2008, Barack Obama united the entire world in a unifying spirit of unity by winning with 52.9 per cent of the vote.”

    -Tim Blair

  4. ExiledIndependent Says:

    Don’t confuse an infatuation with President Obama with a blue shift.

  5. N.J. Says:

    I live in one of the most conservative counties in Georgia, and the Republicans lost seats in the state legislature here. The county which still shows at 60 percent registered Republican is fast becoming a suburb of Atlanta, with a growing multiethnic population that is starting to vote more and more Democrat.

    Georgia is rather unusual. The Northern third and southern third of the state looked red on the electoral map, but one third of the state, running from Columbus in the west, to just south of Augusta in the East showed up as rather dark blue on election day 2008.

    However it is Mississippi that surprises me most, with 51 percent of voters self identifying as Democrat, and Alabama, where self identified Democrats are now a single point behind Republicans 49 percent fo 51 percent. Texas is also well on the way to turning purple.

    When thinking of Georgia, it is easy to forget that less than a decade ago, it was a conservative Democratic state, not Republican. Democrat Zell Miller was governor between 1991 and 1999 and served as Senator from 2000 to 2005. Max Cleland was Democratic Senator until 2002.

    So the idea of Georgia as a purely red state with little possibility of going blue might sound feasible, the election of 2008 which saw support of the Republican nominee for president drop considerably, and support for a Democratic candidate go up a considerable amount, sort of belies this assertion.

    Atlanta, is also rather a Democratic stronghold, and Atlanta which first spread out towards the west as the population increased, is now spreading eastward. Sooner or later Atlanta and Athens are going to be one big chunk of urban sprawl.

    The changes in my county in the last 3 years astound me. The city I live in was not quite empty, but it was also not wall to wall housing development and shopping center, It is today. Where most of my neighbors were once pretty much long time locals, now many of them are transplants from the New York Metropolitan Area or Chicago, and others are simply foreigner professionals who have been hired to fill jobs that the locals do not have the educational requirements to perform. In fact, I have met three people who come from the same smal northernl city I grew up in and who both went to the same`college I went to during the same years. That alone sort of boggled my mind.

    As noted, Georgia has not been pure red for all that long, and there are changes occuring which make it quite possible that it can and will become purple in a few years. If the current demographic patterns keep up at their current rates, this is not unlikely.

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