Longest Recession In PostWar History?
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in EconomyIf this one goes until April, which it’s very likely to do, it’ll be the longest one in American history.
Unemployment hasn’t reached 1982 levels and the gross domestic product hasn’t fallen quite as far. But the hurt from this recession is spread more widely and uncertainty about the country’s economic health is worse today than it was in 1982.
Some additional evidence…
- 207,000 manufacturing jobs were lost in January, which is the largest drop since 1982.
- Automaker’s sales are about to have their worst month since 1982.
- 2008 was the worst year for new home sales since 1982.
- There are now 12.5 unemployed, which tops the total in 1982.
But it’s a much different world than 1982…
“This recession is broader, deeper and more complicated than virtually anything we have ever seen,” Wachovia Corp. economist Mark Vitner said. “The whole evolution of the credit markets resulted in all sorts of complex financial instruments that are difficult to unwind. It’s like trying to unscramble scrambled eggs. It just can’t be done that easily. I don’t know if it can be done at all.”
Forgive me if I’m not sunnier about our economic prospects, but the numbers I see continue to suggest that we haven’t hit bottom yet. I’m hoping that’ll happen in the fourth quarter of this year, but I’m not holding my breath.
This entry was posted on Sunday, March 8th, 2009 and is filed under Economy. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
March 8th, 2009 at 12:35 pm
Justin, I think 4th quarter this year is the earliest that we might see the bottom. If the firings continue at the rate we’ve been seeing it will be longer than that.
March 8th, 2009 at 12:52 pm
Donklephant » Blog Archive » Longest Recession In PostWar History?…
“This recession is broader, deeper and more complicated than virtually anything we have ever seen,†Wachovia Corp. economist Mark Vitner said. “The whole evolution of the credit markets resulted in all sorts of complex financial ……
March 8th, 2009 at 5:24 pm
I’d be a little more cautious in crediting anything said by the chief economist for Wachovia — or any of the banks struck by the financial crisis that was in large part of their own making. I wonder what he had to say about the future of all the complex, hard-to-unwind financial instruments a year ago?
March 8th, 2009 at 9:12 pm
For good reason. Instead of cutting spending so that businesses and individuals have money to invest we exacerbate a problem caused by too much government spending with massive increases in government spending. Instead of rewarding thrift we take from the prudent to subsidize the reckless.
We’re in for some bleek days. Look for no recovery until government goes on a diet. On the plus side, government at the local levels have already been forced to shrink.