How Will Repubs Do In 2010?
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2010 Election, Democrats, Elections, RepublicansWe’re already starting to hear the 1992 meme, but will 2010 be a watershed moment for Repubs?
According to First Read, the results will be a lot different…
The 1992 election actually provided hints of the 1994 tsunami (redistricting, strength of anti-establishment Perot etc.; Republicans actually did well in 1992 House races and picked up senate seats). So 1992′s results scared a number of Dems and led to a lot of retirements — making 1994 even more difficult for their party.Remember, MSNBC’s Morning Joe won his Dem-held House seat in an open seat contest; the conservative southern Dem decided to retire. We’re not seeing this same pattern for 2010 just yet. Democrats seem to have the ability to have insulated themselves from a 1994- or 1946-like result.
Personally, I think it’ll be a wash and Repubs will claim victory if they pick up even one seat. But that will ring as hollow as Bush’s “mandate” claim in 2004 and will set the stage for a very tough, uphill battle in 2012 when the general election rolls around.
Thoughts?
This entry was posted on Monday, August 3rd, 2009 and is filed under 2010 Election, Democrats, Elections, Republicans. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
August 3rd, 2009 at 1:41 pm
While it’s an exercise in fantasy to make predictions this far out, I’d say that it looks more like a 1978 election next year than a 1994 election. At this point in time, that is, and if one wishes to go on the assumption that numerous parallels produce similar results.