State Party Affiliation Still Leans Left

By Justin Gardner | Related entries in Democrats, Polls, Republicans, United States, Video

Gallup did a state by state assessment and came up with the following map. Very discouraging for the Repubs out there.

I think this is mostly due to the fact that Republicans still aren’t proposing viable solutions. And that’s probably because they lack any true leadership right now.

Also, whether they want to admit it or not, last election the electorate shifted significantly left and nothing suggests it’ll switch back. True, some of the anti-deficit crowd may be very vocal, but being loud doesn’t mean you’re the majority.

So until Repubs can come up with some new ideas to excite the moderates and conservative Dems, well, this map will continue to stay blue.


This entry was posted on Monday, August 3rd, 2009 and is filed under Democrats, Polls, Republicans, United States, Video. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

10 Responses to “State Party Affiliation Still Leans Left”

  1. michael reynolds Says:

    I don’t think it’s just a lack of leadership. I think Republican philosophy has no answer to current problems. I think it’s philosophical obsolescence. They have a philosophy that might be appropriate to a nation of small farmers and townsfolk. (See map.)

  2. Tully Says:

    nothing suggests it’ll switch back

    Nothing? Heh. Willful blindness. It’s amusing how the economy is somehow not going to be an issue, or the ongoing war in Afghanistan, or…but you get the point, or should. There’s always something, and the party in power will get blamed for it. Especially when you own both houses and the White House to boot.

    I agree the GOP lacks leadership that would appeal to swing voters on a national scale — they’re decidedly still little-tent focused right now, and their leadership such as it is reflects that. But I also note that next year is not national-scale races, but strictly Congress and state, which is local/regional effect.

    Tip O’Neill was no dummy when he said that all politics is local.

  3. Nick Benjamin Says:

    This poll is irrelevant politically because it is of all adults, not registered voters or likely voters. The Dems have dominated amongst adult since FDR’s day. We don’t always dominate among registered voters, but we’re always ahead.

    Republicans win elections because the people who actually vote are much more evenly split.

  4. michael reynolds Says:

    Nick:

    Of course it’s irrelevant. You want us to talk only about relevant polls? Are you trying to kill the internet?

  5. Tully Says:

    Good point, Nick. As Gallup itself points out:

    It is important to note that these categories only apply to a state population’s party leanings and are not necessarily indicative of a party’s electoral strength in that state.

    I have other problems with believing one can draw any truly useful or usable conclusions from the poll, ones involving methodology and the meta-compiling of similar questions from differing polls. Even without those objections, the “shift” is tiny in comparison to Gallup’s 2008 poll, and the results being compiled over time (JAN– JUN 09) means it is not necessarily at all representative of what a poll done today would say.

    Michael: Hee hee.

  6. Below The Beltway » Blog Archive » More Bad News For Republicans: Democrats Lead In State Party Affiliation Says:

    [...] more evidence that the GOP has a long way to go before it makes a comeback: PRINCETON, NJ — An analysis of Gallup Poll Daily tracking data from the first six months of [...]

  7. Justin Gardner Says:

    Tully,

    By “nothing” I mean that Republicans haven’t been able to make significant gains in trust. Americans are trusting Obama less, but Republicans are still at the bottom of the barrel. I wouldn’t call that willful blindness.

    But hey, we’ll see. You also thought there was no way Obama would ever get elected. We saw how that turned out. ;-)

  8. Tully Says:

    As I’ve said so often over the last few years, it’s a race to the bottom….and everyone’s winning. Except the public, of course. ;-)

    If you meant your point to be about one specific aspect (trust) you probably should have said so. Otherwise people are likely to misunderstand you and construe your words more broadly.

  9. michael reynolds Says:

    We’ll get portability, an end to pre-existing conditions, some more transparency, and possibly a mini-public option. I personally never expected that much and would have been happy with the first two as those are what’s relevant to me personally.

    It’s a mistake in the grand scheme of things to kill the public option, but I always assumed (perhaps wrongly) that that was trade goods.

    When the system completely crashes in a few years we’ll cobble together something desperate that costs even more and solves fewer problems. Thus always with American politics. All that really matters is that the insurance companies get richer and the Blue Dogs get their PAC money. By the time the product really hits the fan the Dogs will be retired and the insurance companies will be diversified.

    (Captcha: GIVE APRIL. Oh, don’t worry, Captcha, I always give in April.)

  10. John Burke Says:

    These poll results — drawn from surveys conducted from January through June — unsurprisingly reflect the state of play in the nation’s polictics that produced Obama’s election and big gains for the Dems in Congress, and it would be roughly the same even if it were based on polling of voters, not all adults. During most of the first half of the year, after all, most people, even McCain voters, were in a mood to give the Dems a shot at what they punished the GOP for not getting right. Obama was getting 65-70% approvals in many of those months. He was – and is — personally popular. If the map did not look like this, Democrats facing reelection in 2010 wouls have to be frantically worried.

    The GOP openings have begun to be evident in Obama’s sagging approval ratings, which started in June and accelerated in July, alongside a steady loss the the Dem’s previously big edge in the “generic” Congressional polls and growing dissatisfaction with Obama’s stewardship of the economy and sveral of his “signature” programs, conspicously health care. To be sure, it remains to be seem whether this dissatisfaction will remain in the second half of 2010, but there is every reason fro GOPers to feel a lot more positive than they did just a few months ag.

    I thought and continue to think that it was a big mistake or Obama and the Democratic leaders, along with so many journalists, pundits and other folks to buy into the notion that the 2008 election heralded some sweeping or historic political realignment, a shift to the left, or an era of Democratic dominance. One would have thought that such notions would not survive if only because the much-vaunted GOP dominance of just a few short years ago evaporated quickly enough in the face of public anger over the financial mess and the recession.

    It’s also worth bearing in mind that the map is not relevant at all to most of the House races that are likely to be heavily contested in 2010 (really, does anyone think Republicans have no chance in Arkansas, Oklahoma, Tennessee, etc. because they are colred blue on this map?)and even some Senate races may be influenced more by issues that transcend party or ideology (eg, see Dodd v. Simmons or whatever happens to the Obama-Burris seat in Illinois).

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