Based on a wealth of past history, I do think it’s safe betting that we’ll see some decline in the democratic majority. The extent of that decline is known as well by the magic eight ball as any poll-taking chicken bone reader: “Future unclear, try again later.”

I agree with Nick that if/after health reform passes and no first borns are devoured, we’ll see an Obama uptick. When it comes to the national mood, I’m more worried about where it will head if the christmas shopping season shows the kind of reluctant and careful spending that I fully expect. Suppose we’re sitting here in december or january, and

•christmas spending has been dismal and retailers are bitching
•year-end belt tightening is worse than usual
•house sales go back in the crapper as the tax credit expires
•car buyers disappear without gov’t subsidies
• China and other asian investors in the credit market are making bigger and noisier threats regarding the financing of the next uber-bloated budget, which projects to be the 3rd straight in which the US pretends that is is somehow ok and sustainable to collect only 3 while spending 4 or 5.

Prescient captcha? Busted simply.

Right now all kinds of BS about the various health plans is believed by a majority. After health reform passes, there’re months of exactly zero grandmas being unplugged because government death panels decided they weren’t worth it, 80-90% of Americans experience no change in their benefits, and the rest gain access to a health exchange with better options than they had before…

All of which, as you know, will have only a marginal effect on races. Because national politics, like national polls, are only of secondary importance in House races.

Of course that means that dire predictions made now on the basis of a perceived national mood, as well as rosy ones, are likely wrong. It will come down as it usually does to local issues, money, organization and motivation.

I’ll stick with my prediction that Dems will shock and awe with a net pickup in Congress.