Republicans Shifting Opinions On Healthcare Purely Partisan?
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in Democrats, Health Care, RepublicansI found the following numbers from Gallup about government’s role in health care to be, well, eye opening.
Check it out…
Hmmm, what happened in 2008…I can’t really think of anything.
Republicans can not like Obama all the want, but this smacks of “Soreloserism.”
Why, just look at how this drop has effected the overall opinion on this topic…
So in 2007 nearly 70% of the population thought government be responsible for health care, but now that a Democrat is in office we’re sub 50%?
Come on people…don’t cut off your nose to spite your face.
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November 15th, 2009 at 4:52 pm
Of course, it’s partisan — when you track poll respondents as partisans-plus leaners to to same party. Those more likley to trust Obama and the dems are also more likely to trust a government run by them to make sure everyone has healthcare coverage. The opposite for GOPers and leaners.
Interesting but not surprising, and I’m not sure what political lesson can be gleaned form it. After all, a lot of the Republicans and Republican leaners voted for Obama or Democrats for Congress (indeed, their party self-identification probably was more Democrat last year and in 2006).
November 15th, 2009 at 6:57 pm
This is actually the reason I am still barely in the GOP, though I did vote for Obama. On most issues*, I do NOT believe it is the responsibility of the government to provide for the people – the people need to take care of themselves. “Individual responsibility” and all that. I’m think this is one of the big splits between the parties, and healthcare is just the issue of the moment, in that sense.
*My main exceptions are defense, children/education, protection from abusive corporations, spending on research that benefits us all. Basically, collective benefits, not individual ones.
November 15th, 2009 at 7:32 pm
I don’t dispute that there might be some “Soreloserism” in these numbers, Justin (but I do also think that John makes a good point about how who’s running the government affects who trusts the government, which makes sense).
However, there’s another aspect to consider: In 2007/2008, the concept of the federal government ensuring that all Americans have health care was still abstract. In 2009, the fantasy version has been replaced with the sausage-factory version, which is also the version that has been shaped by Democrats. So, can you blame Republicans for changing their minds about whether it really should be the federal governments role to ensure health coverage for all?
November 15th, 2009 at 7:46 pm
This poll is an outstanding opportunity for everyone to understand that people just don’t always give straightforward answers to poll questions.
In 2007, many folks felt comfortable with an answer that encouraged the government to help put on this issue.
But now, the “yes” answer to this question is quite likely to be viewed as supportive of the current effort. It’s pretty clear to me that most folks think the government needs to play an important role in healthcare, but they don’t agree on the precise nature of that role. Many folks who don’t think the current reform effort is on target answered no to the poll question even though, in the abstract, they don’t disagree that the government needs to bear some responsibility.
I really, really, REALLY hope folks don’t dismiss what I’m saying here. If you watch how poll answers change in relation to the same or similar questions asked over time, you’ll see it’s quite true. Many folks are savvy enough to think about how a give answer will be viewed in the context of the current climate and answer the question they WANT to answer.
In other words, many people were asked
“do you think it’s the government’s responsibility to ensure healthcare coverage,
and they answered
“No, I don’t support the current reform effort.”
Calling it soreloserism misses the point.
November 15th, 2009 at 8:38 pm
If I were to cut off my nose to spite my face my health insurance wouldn’t cover it….
(my captcha–”hurls less”–maybe I should avoid the puns?)
November 15th, 2009 at 9:52 pm
kk’s right. In 2007 and ’08 they weren’t thinking about this specific reform. They hadn’t, for example, realized that if you want to keep the current system and still achieve universal coverage you need an Individual Mandate.
IMO once the reform actually passes those numbers will go back to 60% fairly quickly, and at that point a lot of the doom-and-gloom polls the Dems are seeing will recover. I actually wouldn’t be surprised if six months after the bill goes through most Americans don’t think it was too little, as many of its provisions won’t come into effect until 2013.
The trick is getting it through the Senate. And hopefully doing it soon. The US System of government is really bad at dealing with multiple problems at the same time; so I sincerely doubt we’ll solve the economy, climate change, and Afghanistan in 2010 if we don’t have health care through the Senate in 2009.
November 15th, 2009 at 10:50 pm
And how does that theory explain the 13% drop (from 2007 to now) in support for government health care among Democrats and Democrat-leaners? While that’s less than the 20% drop on the GOP side during the same period, it’s not all that much less.
As others have noted, as proposals get more concrete, the poll turns into simply a question of whether one likes the proposal or not. So in 2007, a GOP-leaning individual may believe that yes, in the abstract, government should provide some kind of minimum health coverage for the poor — perhaps an extension of Medicaid, something like that. But in 2009, when the debate is over a specific, and very massive, government intervention in the health care segment of the economy, the same GOP-leaning individual answers the same question “no,” because he doesn’t support the details of the actual proposal on the table.
The fact that Democrat/Democrat-leaning support also fell significantly during the same time period provides pretty strong support for this explanation.
November 16th, 2009 at 1:19 pm
“This is actually the reason I am still barely in the GOP.”
Here’s the thing, perhaps those that identifies themselves as Republican no longer associate themselves as so. I would say that I would have identified myself as Republican in 2007, but now am fully independent. I am also more moderate than most Republicans and support health care. Perhaps more people like me have also disassociated themselves with the Republican party?