In this podcast we discuss (1) the shake up in the McCain Campaign, (2) Obama’s statement on revising his Iraq strategy, (3) Obama and his history with low income housing subsidies for private developers and (4) rumors about McCain’s VP announcement timetable…
[Listen Online] or [Download]
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Feel free to email us questions/suggestions [...]

Some Independence Day linkage…

Polling Average, McCain vs. Obama: Obama +5.7
Voters see both McCain and Obama as flip-floppers.
Obama calls for a new national service program.
President Bush’s deputy CoS is leaving the White House.
Tom Schaller throws water on Obama’s potential in the South.
The NRA dedicates $40 million to the election, $15 million to target Obama.
62,000 jobs were [...]

In American politics, polarization and participation are not just linked, they are one and the same. When you argue against “bad” political polarization, you argue for decreased political participation - you argue, in effect, for political apathy.

Earlier today I criticized simplistic coverage of swing voters. Fortunately, for those interested in a more comprehensive look at crossover voting, John Avlon has a great column over at Politico. Avlon, author of Independent Nation and former chief speechwriter for Rudy Giuliani, is a guy who knows a little something about independents.
Read the whole piece, [...]

Obama gained one and McCain lost one today, after McCain had closed the gap significantly the previous day.

The details…
As would be expected from any methodology involving repeated sampling from a large population, there have been slight fluctuations in the daily reports of Gallup Poll Daily tracking rolling averages (each based on three days worth of [...]

I covered this back on June 27th, and at that time the group had around 550 members. What a difference a week makes, eh?
Not only that, this group is now the biggest on his website now.
TPM points to a story from USA Today about the group…
In recent days, Obama has criticized the Supreme Court [...]

Why is it when a major news organization writes about swing-voters or undecideds or even “moderates” the story is either written with condescension or with an anthropological reverence, like they’ve uncovered some primitive and mysterious tribe? The latest “report” on undecided voters comes from the AP and is based on a Knowledge Networks poll .
The [...]

With leaners
Obama - 49%
McCain - 44%
Without leaners
Obama - 47%
McCain - 40%
The “with leaners” numbers stays the same today, which represents 4 straight days with 0 movement, a fact that is freaking Rasmussen out. Seriously, pollsters don’t know what to do when numbers are steady. I hear they’re drinking…a lot.
However, Obama has gained 1 in the [...]

Obama - 52%
McCain - 35%
Connecticut is usually a pretty faithfully blue state, so the sole reason I post this is Obama only lead McCain by 3 points last month.
The demo details…
In Connecticut, Obama has a solid 58% to 30% lead among women, but just a five point advantage among men.
Among voters not affiliated with [...]

Obama - 48%
McCain - 43%
Well, how about that? A state that Bush won by 20 points in 2004 and 25 points in 2000 has the potential to go blue?
Also, last month the numbers were reversed, so this represents a +10 net gain for Obama in a state many wouldn’t think he has a chance to [...]

But just because these leaders are backing McCain doesn’t mean that their followers are going to fall in line lock-step. In fact, after reading this article, I think some may find a distinct distaste for how these folks are framing their decisions.
First, TIME has the details about who was there…
The group included leaders like Phyllis [...]

Not that this is any big surprise, but many claimed he would have problems with this voting bloc after the primaries. Gallup’s numbers prove otherwise…

As Gallup points out, these numbers are bigger than Kerry’s, but not as big as Gore’s, although this may just a shift from Democrats general over the past 8 years as [...]

McCain isn’t saying that Rick Davis is being replaced, but it’s obvious a power shift is happening because I can’t help but think that Steve Schmidt will be tasked with many things that Rick Davis has failed to do so far.
From Politico:
Steve Schmidt is taking over the day-to-day operation of John McCain’s campaign, according to [...]

Meanwhile, 31.5% consider themselves Republicans and 27.5% are unaffiliated…but we’ll just call them Independents because that sounds better.
That’s the latest party ID findings from Rasmussen, and it just speaks to how damaged the Republican brand is this season.
Perhaps Kerry losing in 2004 was a blessing in disguise for the Dems? After all, I can’t imagine [...]

McCain gets a net three gain today after Obama loses one and the Arizona senator gains two.

The details…
These slight Obama bumps have proven to be short-lived, and from a larger perspective there has not been a dramatic restructuring of the race in recent weeks.
For example, Obama has averaged 46% of the vote going back [...]

With leaners
Obama - 49%
McCain - 44%
Without leaners
Obama - 46%
McCain - 40%
Again, same story, different day. Absolutely no change in the numbers…so nothing new to report except that the race is very stable…at least according to Rasmussen. They even go so far as to call this stability “amazing.”
The 5 day w/leaners:
07/02/2008: McCain - 44%, Obama - [...]

In a Rose Garden news conference today, President Bush said he hopes to be able to shift troops from Iraq to Afghanistan by the end of this year. While there’s nowhere near a guarantee that Iraq will be stable enough for this kind of redeployment, the move would likely cause some tension amongst Democrats running [...]

With new questions about massive credit card debt and unpaid taxes, and questions still looming as to where Cindy invests her money and why she won’t fully disclose her tax returns, the McCain camp is becoming increasingly nervous that the lack of transparency may hurt them come this fall.
Politico points out why this matters…
During the [...]

I’m seeing more and more of these stories pop up, and I can’t help but think there’s a reason. If the GOP knows how to do anything, it’s seed the media with messaging aimed directly at a candidate saying “Hey, wake up!!!”, and these latest articles about McCain seem to be exactly that.
From Politico:
While the [...]

It’s not quite the beer question, but a new AP/Yahoo! News survey reveals that more Americans would rather barbecue with Barack Obama than John McCain. This must be crushing for McCain who made barbecuing a central component of his VP hunt.
McCain is currently losing the cook off by 7 points, an edge I suspect him [...]