It bugs me when either party peddles a false meme before a certain event, as was the case last night with the “GOP is making a comeback if we win anything” talking points.
And yet today the media is grabbing it hook, line and sinker.
But why?
Let’s look at the facts…
Republicans won the gubernatorial races in Virginia [...]

I suppose it’s possible, but more and more evidence is pointing to the contrary.
Here’s some telling info from a Washington Post/ABC News poll out yesterday…
Poll respondents are evenly divided when asked whether they have confidence in Obama to make the right decisions for the country’s future, but just 19 percent express confidence in the Republicans [...]

Kind of:
U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak, trying to knock off a veteran Democratic incumbent senator in the primary, will get an endorsement Monday from somebody who succeeded in doing just that: Connecticut’s Ned Lamont.
Lamont defeated Sen. Joseph Lieberman in the 2006 Democratic primary, largely by running against the Iraq war and Lieberman’s support of the Bush [...]

It’s pretty easy…the only people that voters like less than Congressional Democrats and Congressional Republicans.
Add in the facts that Republicans have no coherent plan, no definitive leadership and are allowing right wing pundits to organize and promote this Tea Party movement and you have a reality where Dems might actually pick up seats next year.
Personally [...]

After having an electoral stake pounded through its heart last November, after being exposed to the searing media morning light of a “permanent realignment” in the “center-left” American electorate, with a silver bullet in the brain of a “broken GOP brand”, and with a garlic necklace strangling it’s “sixty’s culture war” neck, the corpse of “Divided Government” seemed dead and buried in the media for the foreseeable future. But last week the undead meme was walking again

If I was a betting man, I’d put the over/under at a net 12 seat gain for the GOP in the House of Representatives.

The Senate remains the best chance to divide this government in 2012. Predictions three years out are indeed foolish, but barring some as of yet unrevealed scandal close to the President, I expect he will be reelected. The best chance to restore fiscal rationality in 2012 is for Republicans to take the Senate, and that will take two election cycles. A journey of a thousand miles starts with a single step, and the first step is for Republicans to pick up a couple of seats in 2010.

We’re already starting to hear the 1992 meme, but will 2010 be a watershed moment for Repubs?
According to First Read, the results will be a lot different…
The 1992 election actually provided hints of the 1994 tsunami (redistricting, strength of anti-establishment Perot etc.; Republicans actually did well in 1992 House races and picked up senate seats). [...]

This is BIG news as it’ll ensure that a lot more people participate.
From Des Moines Register:
Sources from both the Iowa Democratic Party and Republican Party of Iowa say they are getting ready to jointly announce a date for the 2010 Iowa caucuses. For the first time, they’ll be held on a Saturday afternoon in January. [...]

I suppose it’s never too early to start talking about races in 2010, and this race presents many Dems with a problem. Support the moderate (yet aging) Specter because he switched parties, or back a young up and comer?
Regardless, it’s becoming obvious that Sestak will run in the Democratic primary…
Sestak has interviewed a number of [...]

Popular Republican governor Charlie Crist is set to announce whether or not he’ll try to join the federal government, but sources are already saying it’s a done deal.
From Politico:
Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R) will be announcing Tuesday that he will be running for the Senate, according to a source close to the governor, giving Republicans [...]

That’s one of the questions a recent NBC/WSJ asked voters and the results show that they know Obama inherited a massive mess and they’re more than willing to be patient with the new guy.
Nate Silver pulls some data…

What we find is that roughly 50% of voters think Obama will own the economy in about 18 [...]

I almost feel bad for the guy. First, he gets caught up in the whole D.C. Madam scandal. Ouch.
Now, with that behind him, he starts to prepare for his 2010 Senate re-election run. Cue the comically ironic porn-star:
This year, an ad appeared on Craigslist seeking “a female in some aspect of the adult-entertainment industry” to [...]

From the AP via FirstRead, “New Mexico: Iceman For Governor?”
Val Kilmer is pondering running for governor of New Mexico in 2010, when Democrat Bill Richardson’s second term ends. ‘I’m just looking for ways to be contributive,’ Kilmer told The Associated Press on Thursday. ‘And if that ends up being where I can make a substantial [...]

Proving once again that he’s the wiser son, Jeb puts to rest rumors that he’ll run for the Senate.
From AP:

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (AP) — Former Gov. Jeb Bush says he won’t run for the U.S. Senate in 2010 to replace the retiring Mel Martinez.
Bush made the announcement Tuesday, saying “now is not the right time to [...]

If you were a Republican Congressman right now…what would you be thinking? That’s what Silver attempts to deconstruct in a recent post.
And while Nate explains the political thought process in detail, I think one thing’s for certain…Obama better be ready for a fight.
From FiveThirtyEight:

But let’s say that the economy still sucks in 2010 — which, [...]

Thanks to a quirk in New York’s election laws, whoever gets appointed to Hillary Clinton’s Senate seat will have to spend their first three years in office campaigning:
Paterson will appoint a Senator in January of 2009 who will hold that position until Jan. 3 of 2011. At that point, the winner of a special election [...]

The impending retirement of Mel Martinez has led to speculation that former Florida Governor Jeb Bush may make a run for the Senate:
Two sources close to Jeb Bush, including one who has spoken to the former Florida governor within the past few hours, say he is seriously considering a run for Senate now that incumbent [...]

Actually, I’m not laughing at this…just giving Matthews some grief for that signature, guttural laugh of his.
From FiveThirtyEight…
Chris Matthews, it appears, is in.
FiveThirtyEight has been hearing for some time that Matthews is serious about running for the United States Senate, but it took a trip to Georgia among the Georgia-runoff-congregated and well-connected Obama organizer throng [...]

Delaware’s Governor has appointed a long-time aide to Joe Biden to fill his Senate seat, but it looks like it’s just a temp job:
Ted Kaufman, a longtime aide to Joe Biden, will be appointed by Delaware Gov. Ruth Ann Minner to fill the vacancy created by the vice president-elect once he resigns from the Senate.
Kaufman [...]