Iran Pokes The Giant
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in The War On Terrorism, The WorldGet ready for some military action against Iran. Because they’re playing with fire and I’m certain that the US and its allies will be none too pleased.
From The Guardian:
The Iranian government has been successfully scouring Europe for the sophisticated equipment needed to develop a nuclear bomb, according to the latest western intelligence assessment of the country’s weapons programmes.Scientists in Tehran are also shopping for parts for a ballistic missile capable of reaching Europe, with “import requests and acquisitions … registered almost daily”, the report seen by the Guardian concludes.
The warning came as Iran raised the stakes in its dispute with the United States and the European Union yesterday by notifying the International Atomic Energy Authority that it intended to resume nuclear fuel research next week. Tehran has refused to rule out a return to attempts at uranium enrichment, the key to the development of a nuclear weapon.
And this from The Belgravia Dispatch:
I was talking to a hedge fund manager today who had research crossing his desk guess-timating an approx 25% chance of a military strike on Iran in ‘06. I still think it’s lower, but others, er, don’t….
Alright, I’m going to go out on a limb and say that there’s a 50% chance we’ll see some form of military action against Iran this year. It’ll come after the mid-terms, but I think it’s likely to happen. Iran’s stick is too big and they’re poking the giant too hard.
Okay, so what do you think? Odds?
This entry was posted on Wednesday, January 4th, 2006 and is filed under The War On Terrorism, The World. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
January 4th, 2006 at 11:39 am
I’d say very close to zero that there will be an attack on Iran in the next two years.
An attack would make the occupation of Iraq a lot more difficult, would not destroy any equipment that Iran could not replace, would raise the price of oil so Iran could easily buy more nuclear equipment, would be unprovoked, so the US would lose the diplomatic fight afterwards, would cause the Iranians to rally behind nationalistic leadership.
An attack would be a disaster for the US, and would have a good chance of speeding up Iran’s nuclear weapons program.
January 4th, 2006 at 12:14 pm
I agree with Mark. The US can’t afford to attack Iran. That would stir up a hornets nest. Let the Israelis do it (again).
January 4th, 2006 at 2:04 pm
Almost a certainty.
Why?
When did the present administration EVER let common sense and prudence get in the way of an objective.
Add to the Iran / nuclear question the fact that a good part of Iraq is heading toward a similar theocratic style of government with strong links to Iran and the pot really simmers…
January 4th, 2006 at 2:06 pm
I agree with you both. I think the action will be financial or economic. I think the US will find someway to twist the EU’s nuts to where they make Iran regret the whole business. That will be doubly sweet; getting Iran to back down and getting Europe to do the dirty work. That makes it a very attractive course of action.
January 4th, 2006 at 2:16 pm
I disagree with Probligo. The links with Iran are there, but they are not links of love. There is the ethnic loathing to remember.
In fact the nulcear program may be a response to trends in Iraq, so that Iraq is influencing Iran instead of the other waya round. Shiite democracy inext door is a huge threat to Iran’s government.
Iraq may indeed be heading in a theocratic direction. That works against soem Iranian take-over – rival tehocrats are always enemies.
January 4th, 2006 at 3:18 pm
Jim,
The key religious leaders for the Shiites are in Iran. They would not be rival theocrats, they would be allies. Iran has a shiite democracy, not open, but they do hold elections. It could be plausable that the Shiites could gain enough power and seats to allow for a similar situation, democracy, just not what americans consider democracy. Open optimism about the situation is premature. Let the US get out of the country, then will be an actual test of their ability to operate a truly democratic society. I doubt in the end, what they end up with will be what the US left them with.
January 4th, 2006 at 5:51 pm
There is the ethnic loathing to remember.
Correct Jim, but remember too that that loathing was between Iran and the Sunni administration of Saddam. Now that the US have removed him and replaced his “government” with a Shi’a dominated Council, who is to hate?
John at least understands that…
January 4th, 2006 at 5:52 pm
Oh, and remember too that Iran is one of the “Axis of Evil”!!
January 6th, 2006 at 6:58 pm
A very interesting (and terrifying) article on MyLeftWing suggests it is likely, not due to nuclear weapons, but due to monetary policy. It also suggests that very similar reasons may have been a stealth cause of the Iraq war.
http://www.myleftwing.com/showDiary.do;jsessionid=B9209D9A56DEB0C342A2FB693D643F1D?diaryId=5070