Big Week For Republicans
By Justin Gardner | Related entries in 2008 Election, Michigan, Nevada, Republicans, South Carolina
Michigan. South Carolina. Nevada. A lot will be decided this week, including whether or not Ron Paul can turn a good showing in Nevada into a media story. My prediction? Nope.
First, on Tuesday the 15th, there’s Michigan:
Arizona Sen. John McCain holds a slim lead over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney heading into the Republican primary election in Michigan, a new Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll shows.The survey shows McCain with a 27% to 24% edge over Romney, with Iowa caucus winner Mike Huckabee trailing with 15% support. McCain, fresh off a 37% to 32% victory in New Hampshire over Romney, is battling the former governor on what is essentially Romney’s home turf, having grown up in the Detroit suburbs while his father, George, was governor of the state in the early 1960s.
To be fair to Romney, other polls show him leading McCain, so this could be a big win for him. God knows he needs it.
Weird thing about Michigan, since it moved its primary up it only is able to give out half the delegates. More on the significance of that later…
Then on Saturday the 19th we see South Carolina:
On the Republican side, Arizona Senator John McCain’s campaign is continuing to gain steam after his win in New Hampshire, says the PPP polling group.“John McCain is getting a lot more momentum off his victory in New Hampshire than Mike Huckabee got from taking Iowa,” says PPP about its poll results.
According to the poll,
John McCain leads with 28% of the votes;
Mike Huckabee with 21%;
Mitt Romney with 17%;
Fred Thompson with 14%;
Rudy Giuliani with only 5%;
and Ron Paul with 5%.
Huckabee is counting on a strong second place finish here, maybe even a virtual tie. Because if he can make that happen, he could use that bump to go after Florida where he’s polling strongly against the falling Giuliani and the surging McCain.
And on the same day as South Carolina, we find the forgotten Nevada caucuses. Why forgotten? Well, apparently their delegates are non binding. And I guess that means that even if somebody puts in the time and energy to win them, the delegates can move wherever they want.
Hmmm…
The sight of several dozen Ron Paul supporters marching up the Strip on Saturday may be about as exciting as it gets among the Republican presidential campaigns in advance of Saturday’s party caucuses in Nevada.And Paul, a conservative Texas congressman, didn’t even show up for the march and a later rally at appropriately Texas Station that included a Texas hold ’em poker tournament in his honor.
With the party’s poll-leading presidential candidates focusing on Tuesday’s contest in Michigan and on Saturday’s more important Republican caucus in South Carolina, Nevada’s role in the Republican race for the White House has been marginalized.
Yep, Ron Paul could do well in Nevada, but he could also do poorly. The smart money is on him doing just a little better than poorly since everybody else has ignored the state. And sorry Paulites, but if everybody ignores the state, a good finish there really isn’t much to speak of. You have to go head to head in order to claim a substantive victory and get needed media momentum. For proof of this, just look how Wyoming was ignored in the middle of the Iowa and New Hampshire contests. Basically, Duncan Hunter now has more delegates than Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson (NOTE: Thompson got 3 in Wyoming), but nobody cares because he got it (he only got one) in Wyoming.
All in all, McCain’s momentum appears to be looking good, but can Huckabee pull out a surprise? Seems like most of the candidates are underestimating him and after that ridiculous “Gates of Hell” comment (which was a rip from McCain), he may actually GAIN traction among GOPers. Odd, but that’s the feeling I get.
What McCain needs to do this week is win South Carolina and Michigan. If he can do that he can credibly say he’s a national candidate. But if he essentially ties with both Romney and Huckabee in both of those contests, well, the race is going to get even wilder.
Also, this primary schedule is SO screwed up with states moving their dates around and the RNC penalizing this state for doing this or that, it’s honestly hard to make sense of it all. Big states like Michigan have half their delegates removed and Nevada’s caucuses are non binding. WTF? This is the best way to pick a nominee?
In the end, Super Tuesday could solve some of this as a leader emerges but for right now its really anybody’s guess as to how all of this is going to shake out. There are literally five viable candidates for the GOP nomination right now (Romney, McCain, Huckabee, Thompson and Giuliani), and nobody will be dropping out anytime soon, nor should they.
Anybody else sensing a brokered convention?
This entry was posted on Monday, January 14th, 2008 and is filed under 2008 Election, Michigan, Nevada, Republicans, South Carolina. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
January 14th, 2008 at 10:42 am
Fred got three delegates in WY. Get your facts straight.
January 14th, 2008 at 11:19 am
We can only hope, and additionally hope that the eventual nominee is none of the above.
January 14th, 2008 at 12:16 pm
We each seem to have our own major issue(s) that make their choice for President seem like the best one. My question is: Would someone tell me why we should NOT elect Ron Paul?
The rest, with Richardson out and Kucinich low in the polls, seem to be talking crazy talk about our military adventures in the Middle East. Additionally, no one else seems to understand the problems with the economy, inflation, and out of control deficit spending. Inflation is going to eat us alive, as it has already started to do so. Do you really believe that the REAL inflation rate last year, the rate that was used by the government for Social Security check increases this month, was 2.3%? Just look at the price of gold up 30% in 2007, now at an all time high and getting higher!
One can not talk about tax cuts without ALSO talking about cutting spending. We have a $9 trillion debt (double since 2000) that must be paid so we can afford Social Security and Medicare. The interest payments will go sky high when we begin to fight inflation with higher Federal Reserve bank rates.
And we must stop inflation or everyone’s life savings will go down the tubes, along with the middle class, like what has happened to the middle class in most countries south of our border. And do not forget National Health Insurance, which is coming down the tracks right at us, unless Republicans begin to understand the seriousness of runaway deficits and inflation. And start educating the country. A Democratic President will surely not fight inflation like Volcker and Reagan did!
Please vote Ron Paul and save the country from bankruptcy abroad and at home!
January 14th, 2008 at 7:38 pm
Why shouldn’t Ron Paul be elected President? Because he is quite possibly the most clueless member of the House? And that’s really saying something. You say that he’ll take care of the debt so we can afford Social Security and Medicare but Ron Paul’s ideal is to eliminate those programs and every other one that isn’t defense, diplomacy or a gutted judiciary. No, I don’t think someone who hates government as much as Ron Paul does should be put in charge of it.
January 14th, 2008 at 11:42 pm
Jim, doesn’t that make Ron Paul the best to run the executive branch? Jim, your statements are ignorant. Do you watch c-span? Do you write your elected officials? Do you have any idea what a republic is or a democracy or an oligarchy or a monarchy or a theocracy? Do you understand monetary policy and have you ripped into the feds Bernanke about the ill advised manipulation of the fiat monetary system? Start putting out food on your front porch and see if it attracts neighborhood animals. This is called a subsidy. Triple the number of doctors in your city. The cost of medical care will decline. Decrease the number of doctors in your city by two thirds. The cost of an office visit will go up. Did you know that there are literally thousands of medical students who apply to the U.C. Davis program every year and all with nearly straight A. The university is literally limited by medical organizations as to how many students it can accept. This all has to do with supply and demand and drives the cost of medicine up. These and many other subjects our “clueless” Dr. Paul is well versed in. I dare say he may be brilliant. Let me put it at your educational level Jim. We should give the job of President to the guy who loves a lot of government. Yah, whooooeeeee that sounds like a great idea. Every other candidate wants to run your life. Is that what you want. O.K. Government lawn service. Fair market value is taken out of your paycheck weekly and cutting will begin when you’re 63. Government run oil change service. Once again you will have the fair market value for oil changes taken out of your paycheck weekly until you are 63, but oil burning cars will be outlawed 5 years after they start the program. Government takes over all fast food franchises citing overweight youth and poor health in general. No longer can you go thru the drive thru but you must fill out a request form for the desired food and give them 7 business days for a reply. Better to by thought a fool that to open your mouth and dispel any doubt.
January 15th, 2008 at 12:36 am
“whether or not Ron Paul can turn a good showing in Nevada into a media story.” — is not relevant.
The Paul campaign has gotten precious little media coverage, and we don’t rely on it. We are going door to door and phone to phone… nationwide.
And it doesn’t stop with this election. If we fail–a few of the weaker among us will drop off, but we all have candidates to get elected in the House and Senate as well as state and local positions. We are organized and we aren’t going away. Please join us in our fight to preserve the sovereign United States of America as a land of freedom and opportunity.
Peace,
Cody Peeples
January 15th, 2008 at 11:38 am
As long as the GOP try and back the “other 5″ the demorats will OWN the Government.. by that I mean - Both Congress and Senate and soon the White House.
GOP WAKE UP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The Country DOES NOT APROVE OF GWB!
The Country DOES NOT APROVE OF THE WAR!
The Country DOES NOT TRUST YOU!
The Country WILL NOT ELECT YOU!
If the GOP WONT WAKE UP — Welcome to Socialism.